ALP 2.8%
Incumbent MP
Michelle Rowland, since 2010.
Geography
Western suburbs of Sydney. Greenway covers the eastern parts of the City of Blacktown and some parts of Parramatta and Holroyd council areas. Suburbs include Lalor Park, Seven Hills, Blacktown, Girraween, The Ponds and Riverstone, and parts of Toongabbie and Pendle Hill.
History
Greenway was first created in 1984, and was held relatively comfortably by the ALP throughout the 1980s and 1990s.
The seat was first won by Russell Gorman in 1984. Gorman had previously held Chifley from 1983 until he moved to Greenway in 1984. He was succeeded by Frank Mossfield in 1996.
Mossfield retired at the 2004 election, and the ALP stood Ed Husic, while the Liberals stood Louise Markus. The ALP’s margin had been cut to 3% at the 2001 election, and in 2004 Markus managed to win the seat.
The 2007 election saw the seat redistributed radically, and the Liberal margin was increased from 50.6% to 61.3%. A swing of almost 7% was suffered against Markus, but she held on under the new boundaries.
The 2009 redistribution saw the boundary changes largely reversed, and the new margin saw Markus shift to the neighbouring seat of Macquarie, winning that seat off the ALP.
Labor councillor Michelle Rowland won the redrawn Greenway in 2010, and has been re-elected three times.
Assessment
Greenway is a very marginal seat but has a definite lean towards Labor.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Michelle Rowland | Labor | 43,901 | 46.0 | -3.1 |
| Allan Green | Liberal | 38,759 | 40.6 | +6.2 |
| Damien Atkins | Greens | 5,256 | 5.5 | +1.7 |
| Scott Feeney | United Australia Party | 2,853 | 3.0 | +3.0 |
| Osbourn Rajadurai | Christian Democratic Party | 2,666 | 2.8 | -2.2 |
| Graham McFarland | Australian Better Families | 2,072 | 2.2 | +2.2 |
| Informal | 6,925 | 6.8 | -0.8 |
2019 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Michelle Rowland | Labor | 50,425 | 52.8 | -3.5 |
| Allan Green | Liberal | 45,082 | 47.2 | +3.5 |
Booths have been divided into three areas. “North” covers those parts north of the M7. Areas south of the railway line have been grouped as “South” with the remainder in “Central”.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas ranging from 50.3% in the north to 59.6% in the south. There is a consistent trend of the Liberal Party polling better as you move further north.
| Voter group | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| North | 50.3 | 30,083 | 31.5 |
| South | 59.6 | 16,052 | 16.8 |
| Central | 52.9 | 13,032 | 13.6 |
| Pre-poll | 53.3 | 26,125 | 27.4 |
| Other votes | 48.2 | 10,215 | 10.7 |
Election results in Greenway at the 2019 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor and the Liberal Party.
Fair points Tommo and Nicholas, I forgot about his poor campaign for 2013 where he did make gaffes in that infamous interview that cost him the seat.
Agree with Yvonne Keane being a superior candidate, had she ran in 2019 she may have been able to win (that was the 2nd close call with Rowland being held to a margin of 2-3%).
greenway is a long term target especially if it continues to grow it will shed its osuthern labor voting end. this time around it should shed the remainder of cumberland around girraween
Some general observations – it appears the M7 is a sort of dividing line separating the Labor voting, established suburbs (Lalor Park, Seven Hills and others near Blacktown) from the more affluent and conservative leaning newer development areas (Kellyville Ridge and The Ponds).
I wonder if a better configuration longer term will be to have Chifley and Greenway as east-west oriented districts, with one based south of the M7 stretching from Seven Hills to Rooty Hill/Mt Druitt and then the other one based north of the M7 covering all the growth/new development suburbs (The Ponds and Marsden Park).
@yohan i imagine they will do that eventually when their enough voters for 3 divisions
@Yoh An it appears there is a big distinction between the federal and state Liberals in Seven Hills itself. Surely this is just a candidate thing, right?
2023 Liberal TPP in Seven Hills:
Seven Hills EVC: 50.4% (-8.7%)
Seven Hills High: 54.5% (-2.5%)
Seven Hills North Public: 50.0% (-8.5%)
Seven Hills West Public: 42.6% (+10.0%)
William Rose School: 48.9% (+7.7%)
What I don’t get is the big swing against the Liberals in one booth plus the EVC, the average swing against them in another, and then two big swings to them in two other booths, and all are in Seven Hills.
Not counting the EVC, the Seven Hills booths had a combined Liberal TPP of 48.7% (-3.4%). Add on the EVC and you get 49.5% (-5.5%).
i think this will be a target in 2028 when she retires id imagine thatd be a good a time as any
The whole north western corridor swung very heavily to Labor in 2022. It was not just Greenway, the booths on the western side of Mitchell swung more heavily than others and Windsor and Richmond (in Macquarie) also swung very heavily. Is anyone aware of a wider regional reason or just coincidence?
@redistributed i think it was just that anti-govt vote. though maybe covid exodus?
Marks would probably have held greenway in 2010 if she hadn’t transferred. Likely would have then picked up enough votes in 2013 to hold on in 2016 as well.