Grayndler – Australia 2022

I expect Cooper to pip that margin once its 2PP is calculated. Possibly Wills too.

@Chaisa Wills and Copper both have Labor in the mid-70s vs Libs on TPP. The Vic state seat of Northcote has 82-18 TPP. There are probably some state seats in WA probably have similarly high margins after last election.

Actually, now that I take a look at primary votes, Cooper and Wills won’t beat out Grayndler’s 2PP this election.

WA’s got Rockingham with 37.7% but I don’t know what would be higher from past Federal elections. O’Connor and Maranoa were both a shade under 26% in 1996.

It’s hard to see the Greens winning in Metro Sydney as long as Tanya Plibersek and Anthony Albanese are MPs. They’re from Labor Left and they would appeal to Green voters. The electoral border runs through Newtown (arguably the most “Green” suburb in Metro Sydney) and that makes it harder.

My comment:
– It seems despite being an inner-city electorate, The Greens did not perform that well here possibly due to Albanese for obvious reasons
– It seems many of the Green voters voted early
– The areas around the railway have the weakest Lib vote and the strongest Libs vote is in the northern half since many are old money voters. Strangely Balmain seems to have a strong Lib vote and a weaker Green vote despite its industrial past but maybe again could be old money voters moving in (like Carrum in Melbourne)

It’s interesting how Kingsford-Smith and Grayndler have grandiose, waterfront properties and harbourside or seaside suburbs with median house prices well over $2 million and yet be safe Labor. In most parts, the Labor primary vote exceeds 45% or even 50%. Ironically, the Liberal vote in both seats has been trending downwards since 2013. There was a drop in the Liberal vote in 2019 as was in many inner-city electorates.

@Votante Those waterfront houses in Grayndler and Kingsford-Smith probably make up a small percentage of housing in the electorates and the suburbs they’re in. The Liberal vote seems to be stronger closer to the water in both electorate compared to the rest of the electorate. This is especially true in Grayndler where the Lib vote is strongest in Balmain and Birchgrove.

I would say the most pro-liberal area would be Haberfield which is a garden suburb and said to be the birthplace of Australian suburbia full of heritage listed Federation homes. I feel Haberfield would fit better in Reid with the Canada Bay suburbs rather than with Newtown etc. It is very Italian (30.4%) and Catholic (44%) .

@Nimalan Yes you seem to be right. It seems Haberfield is the best area for Libs in the ALP vs Lib TPP. I missed this as i was looking at the ALP vs Greens TPP.

Seems like this seat has to move west. I assume all of the Western/Southern side of Inner West LGA (and the parts of Canterbury north of Cooks River) will be added into the seat again.

But then, which parts of Inner West LGA should be moved into one of the seats east of it? Wentworth has to expand really bad and this will cause changes in Sydney and Kingsford Smith too.

If more of Newtown and Camperdown is moved to Sydney, which I suspect would be the best based on the characteristics of the area (and uniting suburbs into 1 seat) but then again, this would make Grayndler look like a < symbol.

If Annandale, Rozelle and Balmain is moved to Sydney like it did till 2016, the new Sydney would look like it has a weird appendage on it. Also keep in mind that the connection from Glebe/City to Leichhardt increased since the last redistribution due to the light rail, meaning moving Balmain/Rozelle into Sydney without also moving Leichhardt would violate communities of interest.

If St Peters, Sydneham and Tempe is moved to Kingsford Smith, then it completely changes that character of the seat from beachside to Airport area (which some are against, though it is used in state Heffron). Side note, this also forces Sydney to take all of Paddington (which I am fine with – this is seen in State Sydney)

My suggestion will be to gain the remainder of marrickville from Sydney and Barton and shed Ashfield to Reid and Canterbury to watson
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1mNH8sx7FaoI6nj7iKLN2fVRipbL4dWzf/view?usp=drivesdk

@ John
I support your proposed boundaries for Grayndler, i really like having Haberfield in Reid instead like you did. It is more suburban, more religious/nuclear families and is more like Canada Bay suburbs than Newtown etc. The light rail forms a boundary between Suburban/Inner City.

@John
I highly doubt that is anywhere near enough electors

@nimalan thankyou
@leon based on the numbers I’m looking at it should be

@John

As a guide, Slightly more than 2 (2.03 ish) state seats is approximately 1 federal electorate (93 vs 46 after this redistribution).

The 8 seats of State Vaucluse Coogee Maroubra Heffron Sydney Newtown Balmain SummerHill plus a tiny portion of Canterbury north of Cooks River (and maybe a tiny portion of Strathfield) should collectively form Federal Sydney Grayndler Kingsford Smith and Wentworth.

@leon based on the numbers im looking at the LGAs of Marrickville and leichardt should make up enough voters to make 1 federal division

@John
Are you sure you are not looking at population?
Which includes children and noncitizens (neither of which can vote)?
My estimate is that this is 12% short

@leon my bad i messed that up it should be the inner west lga.

This could be abolished depending on what way the commission chooses to go afterlooking atthe way it’s adequate up tbh.

Got me thinking if the Labor vote was inflated because Albanese.

@ Marh
Agree same with Sydney and Plibasek

it is the only thing keeping this and sydney from going green are plibersek and ablanese once they retire theyre gone

@ John
When Plibasek and Albanese retire it will be easier for the Greens. However, Liberal preferences will be critical also it depends on candidates quality as well

I curious with Anthony Albanese being prime minister is going to potentially hurt him here.

@spacefish the only thing saving him is potentially him being PM. grayndler is the obvious choice for abolition but i dont think there will be the will at the AEC to do it.

@nimalan grayndler will become safer for labor with this redistribution as it will move west or south or southwest. but it wil guarantee a green victory in sydney once plibersek goes

@ John
However, wont Sydney depend on Liberal preferences. There is a decent Liberal vote in Pyrmont and Millers Point and in the past in Green Square.

@SpaceFish Unless if he was John Howard (which he isn’t, thankfully) he’s got a pretty big personal vote and is still pretty popular (particularly around Marrickville which he loves to talk about) which helped him to win big even during the defeats of 2013, 2016 and 2019. The areas included in Grayndler seem to be typical Labor area with a growing Greens vote (kind of like Footscray in Melbourne) so even if Albo retired in the near future it will still lean Labor but will probably become marginal on current boundaries against the Greens given the Liberals run dead here. Same in Sydney with Plibersek.

Nimalan,
Millers Point used to be a Labor voting suburb. It had a lot of public housing.
The recent Liberal Party state government evicted the tenants and sold off all the public housing in that area.

https://www.news.com.au/finance/real-estate/buying/first-of-many-residents-to-be-evicted-from-millers-point-homes-and-removed-by-police/news-story/ca3075a81ce8e5c026d5f25306036c36

https://www.domain.com.au/news/last-millers-point-properties-sell-after-four-years-and-608-million-in-sales-780699/

@nimalan but sydney along with the loss of tanyas personal vote will be taking in the green voting suburbs from grayndler most likely so this coud make it marginal enough for the greens to steal from labor once shes gone

@ John
If the Libs dont give preferences then Greens need about 40% Primary to win

I think Grayndler will be competitive for the Greens after Albo retires but I don’t think Sydney will even after Tanya Plibersek retires, at least not instantly it won’t be. 2022 was the first time the Greens finished second in Sydney, prior to that it had always been a traditional Labor vs Liberal contest with the seat always being very safe for Labor.

Grayndler on the other hand has been a Labor vs Greens contest at every election since 2016 and it was in 2010 too.

The Greens TCP results over time:
2010: 45.77%
2013: N/A (finished third)
2016: 34.18%
2019: 33.70%
2022: 32.95%

The 2010 result being an outlier is because the Liberals preferenced the Greens above Labor on their HTV cards then, and have not done so since.

Which of this & Sydney will be the best prospect for the Greens in Sydney in the future will depend on their exact boundaries when the incumbents retire. The strongest areas for the Greens are currently split between Grayndler and Sydney, so if that changed the Greens could be more competitive, although I still don’t expect them to win either seat before the incumbents retire, barring some significant scandal.

Liberal preferences may yet return.

I don’t think Plibersek is as solid as Albo. Plibersek has been an Environment minister known for approving coal mines and squibbing environmental reforms. The “progressive within Labor” reputation has taken a hit. Albo would get some of that too but he gets a bonus for being PM while Plibersek’s standing in the ALP seems diminished.

I’m waiting to see the redistribution but Greens may yet have cause to target a seat in central/inner West Sydney.

Wonder what the thoughts of voters in Grayndler are on the performance of the Albanese government. Hard to imagine they would be very impressed. The redistribution hasn’t really changed the ALP v GRN margin here and hard to see Labor being at risk of losing though wouldn’t be surprised to see the margin go back to 55-45 like it was in 2010.

@Malcolm, the redistribution boosted the 2PP margin Labor against the Greens. On paper, it also boosted the Liberal primary vote and reduced the Greens primary vote. It cuts out politically Green areas of the Balmain peninsula, including Rozelle and Lilyfield. By moving south and west, it now includes more multicultural ALP vs LIB suburbs like Tempe, Marrickville (along the Cooks River), Croydon Park and Enfield. In most of the new suburbs, the Greens are a distant third.

The redistribution made Sydney more winnable for the Greens if Plibersek weren’t running. It made Grayndler more difficult to flip.

Buying a 4.3 million on house when there is a housing crisis was definitely a political blunder. I suspect with the large renter population here of young people and the Gaza issue we see above average swings to the Greens here.

@SpaceFish how does Gaza effect a seat like this where hardly any Muslims live?

@NP
i agree with you hardly any Musllims live here. However, Eco Soclalists/Student Radicals/Green Left will be animated by it although i think they would have voted Greens anyway.

I was referring to university students and there is still a group that do vote Labor. Either way I don’t think it will be welcomed by his electorate by his recent decision.

@ SpaceFish
i am not being disrespect. The issue of property purchase and Gaza are unrelated so we need to discuss them separately.
1. I think non-muslim students who vote Labor are probably more pragmatic than Greens/Socialists voting ones. Maybe there is some swing to Greens but no where enough to put seat in jeopardy.
2. Those in the left who are Pro-Palestine will be Anti-AUKUS as well but thats not something Labor will scrap to avoid losing votes to the Greens

Putting it here since race closed general thread. You gov states the PM’s house purchase gave him a 36% dislike 4% like 52% didn’t care so presumably 8% unsure