ALP 13.0%
Incumbent MP
Tim Watts, since 2013.
- Geography
- Redistribution
- History
- Candidate summary
- Assessment
- 2019 results
- Booth breakdown
- Results maps
Geography
Southwestern suburbs of Melbourne. Gellibrand covers the entire Hobsons Bay council area, along with a small part of the Maribyrnong council area and eastern parts of the Wyndham council area. Suburbs include Altona, Seaholme, Williamstown, Newport, Spotswood, Kingsville, Yarraville, Laverton and Point Cook.
Redistribution
Gellibrand exchanged territory with Lalor on the western boundary, losing Williams Landing and gaining Truganina and the remainder of Point Cook. Gellibrand lost Seddon and the remainder of Footscray to Fraser in the north-eastern corner of the seat.
History
Gellibrand was created for the expansion of the House of Representatives in 1949. It has always been won by the ALP.
Gellibrand was first won in 1949 by the ALP’s John Mullens, a former state MP for Footscray. Mullens was expelled from the ALP in 1955 and joined the ALP (Anti-Communist), which evolved into the Democratic Labor Party. He lost his seat at the 1955 election.
Hector McIvor defeated Mullens in 1955. He held the seat for the next seventeen years, retiring at the 1972 election.
Ralph Willis won Gellibrand in 1972. He joined the Labor frontbench after the 1975 election defeat. Willis served as Shadow Treasurer for most of the Fraser government, but was replaced by Paul Keating shortly before the 1983 election.
Willis served as a cabinet minister for the entirety of the Hawke government, and upon the election of Paul Keating as Prime Minister, he was appointed Treasurer. He served in that role until the 1996 election, and retired in 1998.
Gellibrand was won in 1998 by Nicola Roxon. Roxon was promoted to the shadow ministry in 2001 and was appointed Minister for Health in the Rudd government after the 2007 election. She served as Attorney-General from 2011 until February 2013, when she returned to the backbench, before retiring at the 2013 election.
Labor’s Tim Watts was elected in Gellibrand in 2013, and has been re-elected twice.
Assessment
Gellibrand is a safe Labor seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Tim Watts | Labor | 47,942 | 48.7 | +2.4 | 49.1 |
| Anthony Mitchell | Liberal | 28,895 | 29.3 | -0.5 | 30.8 |
| Bernadette Thomas | Greens | 16,303 | 16.5 | -2.4 | 13.9 |
| Lisa Bentley | United Australia Party | 5,391 | 5.5 | +5.5 | 5.7 |
| Others | 0.7 | ||||
| Informal | 3,582 | 3.5 | -0.4 |
2019 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Tim Watts | Labor | 63,878 | 64.8 | -0.3 | 63.0 |
| Anthony Mitchell | Liberal | 34,653 | 35.2 | +0.3 | 37.0 |
Polling places in Gellibrand have been divided into three parts: central, east and west.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 59.5% in the west to 68.7% in the centre.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 9.9% in the west to 19.0% in the east.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| East | 19.0 | 68.2 | 19,272 | 21.1 |
| West | 9.9 | 59.5 | 16,125 | 17.7 |
| Central | 14.5 | 68.7 | 8,543 | 9.4 |
| Pre-poll | 12.0 | 60.4 | 34,686 | 38.0 |
| Other votes | 15.8 | 63.0 | 12,636 | 13.8 |
Election results in Gellibrand at the 2019 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal Party and the Greens.
The new boundary between Gellibrand and Lalor kind of looks like… yeah, nevermind.
Moving Williams Landing into Gellibrand didn’t make a ton a sense. Fair chance it will just go back into Gellibrand next redistribution.
* Moving Williams Landing into _Lalor_ didn’t make a ton a sense.
Another annoying little quirk of the boundary is that they left a small part of Point Cook in Lalor (pretty much disconnected from the rest of the seat) when it would be easy to just unite it in Gellibrand.
This seat could be in future elections a potential for the Greens, especially if the seat continues to shrink.
Bob, on current trends Gellibrand is shifting westward. The recent redistribution saw Gellibrand shed voters in its Green-ish eastern end.
Labor hold. One of the few actual coastal seats Labor will always hold. Another that comes to mind is Kingsford Smith.
@ NP
Kingsford Smith is a good comparison. Williamstown and Altona are like Maroubra etc once working class areas near the port with industry but being beachside they are now desirable. It actually has someone affluent areas. Point Cook however, while affluent is like the northern part of Greenway a lot of young educated South Asians.
The new Kingsford Smith is somewhat winnable for the Liberals on state figures. In fact even Maroubra is winnable on state figures (in 2019 Labor got 58% TPP, in Coogee and Kogarah they got 51%).
There seems to be a high Greens vote in the eastern part of the seat. Is Williamtown a Greens target?
*Williamstown not Williamtown (the latter is in Newcastle)
I personally dont think the Green can win Williamstown state seat on current boundaries there is a decent Liberal vote close to the beach and some very working class areas more inland such as Altona Nortj
*Altona North
@Nether Portal Williamstown is about as safe as it gets for Labor both federally and on a state level. The Greens vote seems to come from the areas around Footscray (which is in Fraser now) like Yarraville and Kingsville. If Footscray gets redistributed back to Gellibrand in the future the Greens could potentially usurp the Liberals in primary and 2PP.
Still a very safe Labor seat though thanks to Williamstown, Point Cook and Altona etc.
I would say Williamstown is more like Balmain, both peninsulas with working class history due to docks but has gentrificated to become wealthy so both does have a descent Lib Votes (only by those part of Melbourne and Sydney respectively). Only North West quadrant of Williamstown has a high Lib vote (46% Libs TPP) due to more suburbia feel, large wealthy old money community and a retirement home.
@Marh Balmain hardly has a Liberal vote. The only time the Liberals did somewhat well there was in 2011 when they finished first but the Greens won on Labor preferences. The Sydney CBD has a Liberal vote, it’s around the eastern side though (Double Bay, Edgecliff, Point Piper, etc) and in the centre (Millers Point, Paddington and Pyrmont).
Also, why in 2016 did the Liberals get 49% TPP at Sydney Town Hall? I know Turnbull did well in the inner suburbs due to him being moderate (the Liberals got 46% TPP in Docklands in 2016).
@ NP
Also in 2011, Balmain contained Haberfield which still does have a decent Liberal and quite different from Balmain.
This is my neck of the woods or at least was until the upcoming redistribution. The State Member for Williamstown Melissa Horne’s Father (former member for Paterson, Bob Horne) lives in my street. The heavy Greens vote is in the North East (Yarraville, Kingsville, Spotswood and Newport) keep getting redistributed out of Gellibrand and Williamstown, so as these seats move West into the newer developments of Point Cook and Truganina the Liberal vote actually increases, but never to a level that would ever be competitive.
@Nether Portal, probably since CBD contains more high-income fiscally-conservative voters and less inner city creatives which is more prominent on the low-rise periphery of the CBD. Plus despite the CBD being more densely populated, there are fewer voters since most are international students and expats who aren’t citizens
This is getting off-topic. This is about Gellibrand guys. (Just saying this before Ben does)