Fraser – Australia 2022

On these boundaries the Greens vote has strengthened in this seat, will be interesting to see if it grows.

The West of the seat in Brimbank Council is one of the most deprived areas of Melbourne along with the suburbs around Dandenong/Springvale so i don’t see the Green vote growing there for now. However, the east is becoming trendy and gentrifying. Ideally, all of Yarraville should be in this seat. the Greens should at least come second as there really is no areas except for the suburb of Maribyrnong (more middle class) which have a significant Liberal vote.

If we take the “South-East” area of Fraser and “East” area of Gellibrand (as designated in the booth breakdowns), that’s 34,146 electors with a Green primary vote of 22.3%.

The Greens have benefited by the latest Redistribution by having Footscary and surrounds to be in Fraser rather than Gellibrand although they would have wanted all of Yarraville to be in one seat. Gellibrand has areas with a decent Liberal vote.

Dark horse for a Green gain if they manage to secure Liberal preferences and actually campaign in the seat. Probably the only seat with this property that the Greens have never targeted.

Mulino seems like the beneficiary of a factional deal and probably doesn’t have what it takes to win a competitive election, but he’s in an area where he probably won’t have to worry about that.

Hard to see the Greens winning this seat on these boundaries. But they’d probably have a good shot at a hypothetical inner-west seat that mostly focuses on Footscray, Yarraville and Williamstown (rather than them being split between Fraser and Gellibrand).

The Greens are arguably pretty unlucky with the way boundaries are set in Melbourne: inner-city progressive areas tend to be paired with more conservative suburban areas. They could pretty easily win three seats (and potentially even five or six) with more favourable boundaries: the division of Melbourne + the aforementioned inner west seat + an inner-north seat composed of the southern halves of Cooper and Wills (and they’re also at competitive in Macnamara, Higgins, and Kooyong).

The issue is that if it goes back into Williamstown or the Bay then there is fair Liberal vote same with Altona. Gentrification along the Bay has increased the Liberal vote so it could be more of 3 corned contest.

Greens candidate now listed as Bella Mitchell-Sears (https://greens.org.au/vic/person/bella-mitchell-sears). Not sure why the switch in candidate. Preselecting a candidate with a high profile in the Vietnamese community would offer the Greens the best opportunity for this seat, both now and into the future.

Labor will hold. If the greens campaign, they will possibly get second.

The reaction from the ground towards UAP is outstanding. As a candidate, I do see UAP gain more votes then previous election.

If there are no Vietnamese candidates, who will they vote for? I’d say Labor, Mulino is quietly confident, he doesn’t even need to try. I think the UAP will do well, the Libs may gain some, the Greens will stay the same, and Pauline Hanson will also see an increase in numbers. But with the Lib Dems in the mix, they might get the angry Labor voters. Interesting times in Fraser.

A solid result for the Greens in the parts that make up the state electorate of Footscray, which should definitely be a Greens target for November.

Former MP for Western Metropolitan, Huong Truong will be the Greens candidate here for 2025. Vic Greens will be trying to improve their vote in the Footscray end for the next state election.

3CP here last time

GRN: 24.86
LIB: 30.11
LAB: 45.03

The scenario for the Greens winning here would be the Lib vote increasing substantially at the expense of Labor and than a big Labor->Green swing.

@ Drake
Agree, it is probably to target Footscary at the state election. The Western Half of the seat is too poor for the Greens to win (perhaps among the most deprived areas of Urban Australia). Also i dont think Labor will be knocked out of the 2CP and becomes a LIB v GRN. Finally, the muslim community is not big here so Palestine will not be an issue more Buddhist than Muslims in Fraser.

@Drake I would have thought the Greens would be aiming to overtake the Liberals and either win on a favourable Liberal HTV (the way Bandt did in 2010), or tee up the seat as an ALP vs Green seat for the election after.

Truong is a top tier candidate. The concern now is it seems like Victorian Greens might be spreading themselves a bit thin. Pwrhapst

*Perhaps it’s just a strategy to hit a high statewide vote by running up the score in a few target seats

Nimalan, doesn’t the relatively high Greens primary in Sunshine and Albion show the area is changing, or the Greens are making headway in poorer areas?

@ Wilson
Please dont take it the wrong way i am not Anti-Greens i was merely making a demographic point it could be that Greens are making headway in poorer areas like you said. Interestingly, the number of 3rd Generation Vietnamese Australians will grow significantly in the next few election cycles. Next year will mark 50 Years after the fall of Saigon and hence 50 years of Vietnamese immigration to Australia it is possible that the third generation or generation 2.5 is an opportunity for the Greens. Having said that Wills and Macnamara are easier wins so maybe better to focus all resources in 2025.

Thanks Nimalan, I wasn’t suggesting you were anti-Greens. It has been an issue for the Greens in the past that they’ve struggled to make headway amongst non-tertiary educated voters, which these days doesn’t always inversely correlate with wealth. Perhaps Fraser represents an opportunity for them to break the mould and win votes amongst the poor.

Agree Wilson, the Greens can easily expand their support to include voters from working class backgrounds in addition to their usual inner-city base of younger, tertiary educated voters. This was seen in the recent BCC election where the Greens vote improved significantly right across the whole council area, including in the traditional ALP held areas of Moorooka and Inala.

@Wilson, I think it’s a bit of both. The areas around Sunshine are changing fairly quickly, with increasing density, relatively cheaper prices and good transport links, a lot of renters/students and first homebuyers are moving into this area no longer put off by the perceived stigmas of the West. It’s also possible that the Greens are improving their vote amongst poorer communities with their housing policies maybe resonating better than Labour’s.
Having a candidate of a Vietnamese background always seems to be a vote winner on name recognition alone around here. Very young independent candidate Anthony Tran got elected to Maribyrnong council from the Northern River Ward without much experience of anything (he seems to have done pretty well but might struggle to get back in with the move to single member wards).
Braybrook, which is probably still the poorest area within Fraser, is covered by the Stoney Creek ward of Maribyrnong Council and are represented by long time Labor and Vietnamese Councillor Cuc Lam and Greens member Bernadette Thomas.
While I don’t think the Greens can win Fraser, I think they can get into 2nd ahead of the Liberals especially with the redistribution of the heavy Greens voting remainder of Yarraville and Spotswood and having a candidate of Vietnamese origins. That will set up a real attempt at winning the State seat of Footscray next time around.

The Victorian Socialists have been effective in winning votes in working class areas of Melbourne which are multi-ethnic they did well in the seats of St Albans, Kororoit, Broadmeadows, Thomastown and Greenvale.

The Lib 3CP 30.11% is not that far off from the >33.33 you need to automatically make the 2CP. And this is the only seat in Melbourne that saw the Lib vote increase in 2019 and 2022. If the Lib vote can increase in bad elections for them in Victoria, I don’t really see why it wouldn’t increase in what is expected to be a better election for them in 2025. The Labor vote here continues to go down even in what were good elections for them in Vic in 2019 and 2022.

Interestingly in Laverton the Greens got a 3CP of 20.07%. Greens do very well on preferences in this area. Vic Socialists whose preferences flow overwhelming to the Greens will campaign heavily here as I think this is their best seat.

Fraser in 2019 was quite a different seat to Fraser in 2022 it was pretty much a Brimbank council based seat and did not go into the inner city gentrifying areas. Labor has been struggling in Western Melbourne more than in Northern Melbourne say Calwell. Anger on lockdowns here would have now been replaced by anger on cost of living. Unlike areas with more Muslims there is not an issue such as Palestine that could swing votes to the far left among working class ethnic communities. Having said that the poor areas in Brimbank like St Albans and Sunshine voted YES to the voice.

I would say it will still remain Labor as Greens Support is almost non existent on 1st generation immigrants (arrived after 18 years old) hence why weak Green support in St Alban’s, Sunshine North and Sunshine West.
I can see Gentrification in Sunshine with a Sizable Anglo population (compared to surrounding suburbs) so they might turn into today’s Footscray in 20 years which in turn Footscray 20 years ago was probably like today’s Sunshine.

@ Marh
As i mentioned above there will be a huge growth in 3rd Generation Vietnamese Australians entering the electoral roll in the next decade how do you think this will play out?

That might at least increase some Green Support although probably won’t be enough to turn St Albans and Sunshine North anywhere close to The Greens as:
1) first generation immigrants will continue to increase.
2) I presume many second/third generations immigrants will move out due to English proficiency, improved economic mobility and for many in the group interracial marriage.

@ Marh
Interesting, very few third generation Europeans live in St Albans etc such as Maltese, Italian, Poles and Croats while first generation still live there but they are dying off and younger generations are more integrated and live in suburbs like Caroline Springs.
I think the Horn of African community is increasing in St Albans.

@Nimalan, the Vietnamese (including ethnic Chinese) community used to settle in Footscray and Richmond (many in public housing) but increasingly they are dying out ( the latter being even faster) with Vietnamese speakers moving into big homes in Brimbank and Springvale/Keysborough area whilst those who speak Chinese lives alongside the large Chinese community in the Eastern Suburbs

@ Marh
Interesting, i heard a lot of ethnic Chinese from Indochina and East Timor for example have been moving out of Springvale etc towards Rowville/Knox area. Traditionally these communities were less well off than other ethnic Chinese so lived in low SES suburbs.