Fowler – Australia 2022

There is a huge difference between Indi and Fowler. Indi incorporates an area which is non Labor. Sophie stuffed up big time to lose the seat. Fowler is a normal Labor seat.. the choice of kkk was a big mistake. Dai Le is in effect a right wing independent liberal and she stands to lose next time

@Mick Quinlivan: Dai Le is a conservative holding a traditional Labor heartland seat, but this does not mean she will lose next time. Think about conservative independent Liz Cunningham, who held the traditional Labor heartland seat of Gladstone in the Queensland Parliament for 20 years. Cunningham was famous for bringing down the Goss Labor Government in 1996 by announcing support for the National-Liberal Coalition when the Goss Labor Government fell into minority after losing the 1996 Mundingburra by-election. However, she was re-elected with a primary vote swing of 7% towards her in 1998, remained popular in the electorate and continued to hold the seat until she retired in 2015. For Dai Le, although she’s unlikely to hold the seat for that long, she can be re-elected if she can build up a large personal vote. What’s more, Fowler is NOT a socially progressive electorate. In the Australian Marriage Law Postal Survey, Fowler recorded a 63.66% NO vote, the fifth highest in the country.

Joseph, Liz only won because of OPV, under CPV I estimate she would have been defeated in 2001.

OPV tends to hurt independents rather than help them.

Why do you think the NSW majors won’t abolish it? It helps them.

@Daniel T: Please check the previous election results for Gladstone at: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_results_for_the_district_of_Gladstone
In 2001 Liz’s primary vote was more than 50%, so she wouldn’t be defeated regardless of whether CPV or OPV was used. What’s more, if you check the election results for Gladstone between 1995 and 2012, she would still have been elected in elections during this period if CPV were used.

Daniel, didn’t you just contradict yourself earlier by saying Liz Cunningham won due to OPV but then arguing independents do worse under that system?

Independents will perform well when they build up their personal vote in the district they represent, regardless of the voting system used. Some popular independents would have won even under first past the post. Agree that compulsory preferences do help to get an independent elected in the first place, because their initial vote will be fairly weak.

In this case, I see Dai Le being fairly popular in the local area so she should be able to win re-election fairly comfortably unless Labor is able to nominate a really strong, high-profile candidate at the next election.

@Mick well Helen Haines is a left leaning independant holding a traditional Liberal seat. just like the independant in VIC were left leaning and most ex labor party members or candidates. just like all the teals in nsw. they run as indeendant because they couldnt get elected otherwise. no conservative or socialist as il define them would run against their own.

@Yoh An fowler dai le will be a wildcard next election the same as all the teals in nsw as those inner sydney seats are gonna get massively redistributed. the teals i think will be worried but Dai Le should be safe mainly because of her community profile and that being a ethnically diverse

If the election were to be held today and the ALP don’t select a dud then I am fairly confident they would win. I don’t think Dai Le has really gotten traction on headlines or issues since the election and the government is running very high. Of course there’s up to 2 years to go for things to change so this is mostly academic. Meanwhile the Liberals have the opposite going on in teal seats – they haven’t solved any of the structural problems causing them to decline there and if anything might be making it worse.

@adda not a chance this is a safe seat no way they would get a 10% swing they couldnt even get that in aston

@adda my bad wrong post …

There’s talk/agreement that the Liberals ought to reconnect with multicultural communities. It seems Labor has a problem of its own and it’s quite overlooked and misunderstood. Look no futher than seats like Fowler.

The last Federal/Vic/NSW elections showed collapses in Labor’s primary votes in South-Western Sydney (more prounounced in the Fairfield/Cabramatta/Liverpool areas) and in Melbourne’s west. The historically strong Labor vote has more to do with the working-class nature and economic disadvantage of these areas. It’s compounded by the relative lack of realisation of economic benefits associated with deindustrialised economy.

In 2022, Fowler was lost to Dai Le. At the state election of 2023, the swings away from Labor in Liverpool and Cabramatta were 9% and 7.5% respectively despite a statewide swing. Their 2PP margins are even lower than that of some Labor heartland seats that were Liberal-held 2011-2015. The Labor PV in Fairfield dropped but their 2PP rose. I get that pandemic-fueled anger and anti-government sentiment were part of it. This explains the rise in votes for independents and parties like LDP, UAP and ONP in SW Sydney and western Melbourne and even for Vic Socialists in western Melbourne. What’s worse for Labor is the massive PV swings in Gorton and Fraser of around 10% in 2019. That was pre-pandemic!

The Liberals won’t win seats like Fowler, Gorton or Fraser or their state equivalents. This doesn’t give Labor a free pass. The biggest challenge for Labor is from independents who could be the next Dai Le – running on a local issues and a “taken for granted by Labor” platform. Labor is very exposed.

Agree Votante, i agree that in the right circumstances a Dai Le style independent could win ethnic Labor heartlands. The issue however if Liberals campaign in these seats then it helps Labor as the independent may not make the 2CP. This would have happened in Fowler in 2022 if they fed expectations that they were in contention and emphasized that they too had a Vietnamese Australian candidate in Courtney Nguyen then their vote would have held up and Dai Le would not have made the 2CP and KK would have been elected. This is what happened i believe what happened in Victoria especially in Melton and lesser extent Werribee where the notion that the Liberals had a strong chance prevented the independent making the 2CP who would have had a better chance against Labor. Even back in 2014 there was a minor party called Voice of the West so it shows there is a perception that some feel taken for granted. Actually, i think Werriwa may vulnerable i would cite that as Anne Staley seems to be an underperfoming MP. Fowler was also represented by low profile MP since it is creation in 1984 by contrast i think Chris Bowen has been more active in the community so has held up better in McMahon in 2013 there were real concern that he would loose but he only ended up suffering a small swing against him.

@Nimalan. I agree that if the Liberals ended up in the 2PP, they wouldn’t win. It’s kind of like in teal seats where if Labor/Greens had come second, the Liberals would win. The electoral dynamics that got Dai Le elected are similar.

There’s good reason why the Liberals couldn’t be bothered in Fowler in 2022 – the Liberals were on the defensive in their own seats. Good point about an inadvertant two-way race for second place (Lib vs Ind) in western Melbourne. Voters for minor parties and independents may be disaffected Labor voters who would preference Labor ahead of the Liberals. The PV swing away from Labor didn’t really correlate with a swing to the Liberals. In fact, the votes went to UAP/LDP/ONP as well as Vic Socialists (in Vic) and independents.

This area as well as Liverpool is home to migrants from Vietnam, Cambodia and the Middle-East as well as from Southern Europe. I agree that candidate quality and peformance are important as is the ability to connect. I’ve noticed that Blaxland and McMahon have held up ok due to the activity and seniority of their MPs.

In Cabramatta in 2023, a Labor-turned-independent ethnic Vietnamese candidate scored 17%. Labor’s ethnic Vietnamese candidate did win in the end. However, the Fowler (2022) and Cabramatta/Liverpool (2023) results still highlight Labor’s own need to connect with voters in their own heartland.

@votante if Frank Carbone runs which i think he will hence his reluctance to run in nsw state election if i were Chris Bowen id be worried that and with the redistribution as he and dai les new party said they will be contesting electorates in western sydney at the next federal election and we could see a new block of votes.

Agree Votante, i would also add Watson and Chifley where they have better quality MPs and Labor has performed better. The state seats of Macquarie Fields, Granville, Auburn are also Labor ethnic heartlands but Labor got much better results. I feel Fowler since its creation has had low profile MPs and was neglected, i think Werriwa since 2005 has also had lower quality MPs while in the past it provided 2 Labor leaders and a Treasurer. i do agree Labor needs connect with voters in their own heartland, just like i say the Libs should not attempt to mimic trump-style populism, the Labor party cannot be seen as the Democrats in the US or the Reason party in Victoria as many of their voters are actually socially conservative for example McMahon is a fairly religious electorate. In 2019, the Labor party alienated people of faith and overplayed their hand. This was something their post 2019 campaign review highlighted and Chris Bowen also spoke about. This same issue also impacted Gorton/Fraser in 2019 as they are quite similar to SW Sydney demographically. i do honestly think the Labor party should sometimes take a step back and focus on Green Valley rather than Fortitude Valley which the Greens can manage

labor should really try to push some fresh, young and diverse talent into its caucus following the retirement of some of its senior members in sydney’s west. safe seats like blaxland, chifley, mcmahon and watson won’t be leaving labor’s hands anytime soon and are prime opportunities for future prime ministers/senior cabinet members to enter politics. i also agree that a dai le style independent could pose a threat in the future in labor’s ethnic heartland particularly if the party continues to parachute anglo outsiders into such seats. i was heartened to see labor preselect diverse candidates in david saliba, charishma kaliyanda and tri vo at a state level and if labor can replicate this at a federal level i believe the risk of seats falling to dai le style independents will subside. labor also needs to continue governing from the centre if they hope to hold these seats as the adoption of socially progressive policies will hurt them greatly in their ethnic heartland seats.

@louis I think frank Carbone and dai les new party will have something to say about that and disagree with you

i actually think Chris Bowen will be harder to dislodge than KK notwithstanding Carbone’s popularity. While Chris Bowen maybe Anglo and an atheist he is a local growing up in St Johns Park going to school there and was previously the Mayor of Fairfield. He would have understood, the local communities especially the time he grew up the Slavic communities would have been one that he understood well. He also built strong links with the Assyrian/Chaldean community and spoke about their plight in Iraq. While this community got behind Dai Le in Fowler they maybe less likely to turn against a sitting member in McMahon who stood by them at their most difficult time in 2014-2017 then ISIS occupied their homeland. It is different from KK who like Graham Richardson said was the only person walking around Fairfield in a $2000 dress and was seen as parachute. It is a bit like Julian Hill in Bruce who spoke up for the Hazara community. While Werriwa is Liverpool LGA it is very demographically similar and it might be a prime target for Carbone/Le party as it has been neglected by Labor.

Frank Carbone will only run if he thinks he can win. Mr Bowen is a local not a blow in and he is likely to retain the seat for as long as he stays in politics. The success of the unholy alliance in Fairfield council was due to the last gasps of the Tripodi machine now hopefully gone

@mick Bowens majority is only 6% when not in opposition I’d say Carbone would benefit from a favourable distribution to the west taking in liberal Penrith, losing labor eastern Fairfield and Holroyd. He would garner some labor votes and would be preferences by all others inc greens and liberals etc. If he makes the 2pp he’s got a real chance. Even if Carbone doesn’t run his alliance will

The other things to note is this and mcmahon as well as the western suburbs have high rate of informal votes perhaps admin you should do a post on each divisions informal count?

@Potatees why have you changed your name from Potatoes to Potatqes to Potatees?

Also Chris Bowen’s TPP against the Liberals in McMahon is 9%. It could possibly swing to the Liberals or the DLFCN (Dai Le and Frank Carbone Network) though given the swing to the Liberals in Badgerys Creek (a safe Liberal seat) at the last state election. The seat of Badgerys Creek is in Lindsay, McMahon and Werriwa.

@nimalan it should be noted Hayes primary was 8% higher then Bowens in 2019 and would take much more the a 6% primary swing to Carbone to change the result. If Bowen drops to 40% it’s over as Carbone would get the bulk of eferences

@ Potateees, agree with you that Hayes primary vote was higher than Bowen in 2019 but Fowler is a much stronger seat for Labor than McMahon which is a bit more socially mixed. On a very good year for Labor in NSW such as 2007 or 2016, Labor can get around 20% TPP in Fowler while in McMahon a good result would be around 12% TPP. It is a bit like comparing Higgins to Kooyong. Carbone will still be competative i am just saying that Bowen is in a better position than KK was who had no connections to the area while Bowen is raising his young family in Smithfield so very different from a parachute from Scotland Island. If i was Labor i would be more concerned about Werriwa because if the DLFCN extends into Liverpool LGA and get Ned Mannoun’s support then Werriwa is more in trouble. Werriwa should have a margin similar to McMahon but Anne Staley recorded a very low primary vote in a good year it is also a seat that the Libs may have an eye on and may run Ned Mannoun again.

The new werriwa will most likely be half Camden half Liverpool. Give the what most likely gonna happen in mcmahon at the redistribution id wager frank Carbone would win because he would shave some votes off Bowen and receive the bulk of the 2cp votes from the liberal areas and it would depend where greens direct there preferences though they don’t poll that high here. I wouldn’t be surprised if Bowen tries to jump over to Fowler to more dense labor areas and dai le switches to mcmahon where shed benefit more from the liberal vote. Either way I hope Carbone challenges Bowen wherever he decides to run.

I think whether Dai Le stays in Fowler or jumps into McMahon or any other seat all depends on which seat Cabramatta ends up in. After all, that is her base despite it traditionally being the strongest Labor area in the entire seat of Fowler. I believe the strongest anti-Labor swing in Fowler came from Cabramatta

@Dan M that’s not actually true, Dai Le performed best at the booths in the less multicultural western end of Fowler (abbotsbury, edensor park, prariewood, bonnyrigg). The Cabramatta booths were roughly even.

@Goldfish Guy most of the vote for Dai Le in that area seems to be tactical voting by otherwise Lib voters similar to how many Labor and Greens voters put the teals ahead in teal seats whereas in somewhere like Cabramatta there’s barely any Lib vote but Dai Le has a very strong community presence there. Dai Le’s TPP was very strong in Chipping Norton across the Georges River but it’s really just the Lib vote flowing to her there.

Dai Le might lose now if she isn’t contesting as an “independent” Robyn Lambley in the NT almost lost her seat after going from independent to Territory Alliance. Remember people who voted Dai Le simply because she us an independent might not now. Because now it’s a party with policies and now it’s not independent anymore especially if they contest other seats.

Tu Le gains this next time if she is the Labor candidate. I reckon Frank Carbone is setting up Dai Le to be his successor as mayor. She would win a mayor election with her party but not sure with being a minor party.

I’ll also mention Bob Katter struggled to hold in 2013 after going from independent to minor party. Rebekka Sharkie already was a minor party MP from the day she was elected to a comparison to her isn’t fair.

@dan m I can’t see Cabramatta shifting to mcmahon

@daniel t. Bob Katters was two fold. The LNP fielded a strong candidate and Bob Katter cosied up to Rudd after he reversed the live export ban. Which saw him as aligned with Labor. And that hurt him. They reckon the LNP candidate could have won a rematch if she contested the 2016 election. But she chose not due to deterating health and she passed awa shortly after the election was held. RIP. That’s the exact reason I reckon she should contest McMahon given she’s right of centre in her ideology and a former liberal shed be more suited to McMahon or the new Werriwa or what I suspect will be a new division as Campbelltown can form from MacArthur and then Camden and Liverpool have enough to form two divisions. And as stated if McMahon shifts west and a bit south it will take in liberal territory and lose Labor erritory. That will put Bowen at risk even from a strong liberal campaign. Especially once the cost of living starts to bite people tend to blame the government fpr their problems and not solving it.

@dan M follow up McMahon will be shifting west not east

@ Goldfish Guy, the western end is still CALD but less Vietnamese more European (Italian/Slavic) or Middle Eastern (Assyrian/Chaldean). It is more affluent area especially Abbotsbury and liberal friendly it shows tactical voting by Liberal supporters, just like in the Teal seats the best booths for the Teals where the more left-friendly such as Bentleigh in Goldstein or around Swinburne Uni in Kooyong. Dai Le won because she was able to convince liberal supporters she was the best bet to defeat Labor and her support extended into other ethnic communities as well.

When measuring where an independent has their strongest base of support, the 2CP can be misleading. As @Nimalan points out, Le’s strong 2CP vote in the western end of Fowler can simply be attributed to the fact that the Liberals perform relatively well there on the 2PP.

I reckon Dai Le will increase her margin on current polling trends and of course pending no major scandals etc. Labor will probably try pretty hard to get Fowler back but I do wonder about their grassroots campaigning capacity in this area of Sydney. I think @Hawkeye_au made the point in another thread a while back that the major parties are often on the backfoot having to campaign in their traditionally safe seats, as they just haven’t built up the campaigning capacity since they’ve never faced a competitive race before, which is why I have doubts about Labor’s ability to get this seat back in the short-term. The results in the NSW state election in Cabramatta and Liverpool weren’t great for Labor either, so at this stage things don’t look too promising for Labor here.

@greens that depends in my opinion fowler is gonna get a massive remodel being split 2 or maybe even 3 divisions due to being in the outer west though i imagine the name will survive due to being named after a woman. it will depend on which group of voters she chooses to follow.

so given where fowler is positioned and the redistribution upcoming Dai Le will most likely find herself up against Chris Bowen, Anne Stanley or Jason Clare

It would be easy to defeat Anne Stanley as she is the most underperforming Labor MP probably in the country atm.

@nimalan yea but the liberals will be wanting werriwa too for that reason and becuse werriwa would be the easiest to win based on current and redistributed boundaries. whereas the other two would have favourable boundaries and demographics for dai le

i agree Werriwa is the easiest to win on current boundaries for the Libs. Once the redistributed boundaries i will give a prediction. The issue that the pooreer parts of Werriwa such as Casuala, Lurnea have a strong Muslim community and the Palestine issue will move those areas to the left. The Libs will do well in areas like Middleton Grange. Cecil Hills, Elizabeth Hills etc which are McMansion areas and more Christian as well as semi-rural areas. If Werriwa includes Warwick Farm and Liverpool CBD it gets very hard for Libs to win.

@nimalan the redistributed boundaries should favour the libs even more. yea they do but those muslim areas are already voting labor or greens anyway so… i have included warwick farm into werriwa along with the rest of liverpool lga from fowler but have dropped the parts of fairfield into mcmahon and campbelltown into macarthur. ive also put in holsworthy from hughes bu t dropped everythin west off the m7 to the new division

@ John
I agree with you that those Muslim areas vote generally Labor but the margins in those areas have been dropping over the years and they not as strong as the once was.I mentioned before that i think this one of the few areas where i think Liberals are making inroads into the Muslim vote. I attribute that to Ned Mannoun who is popular. Even in the 2023 state election. the Libs got swings to them in both Liverpool and Holsworthy in the Muslim areas.

@ John
I agree with you that those Muslim areas vote generally Labor but the margins in those areas have been dropping over the years and they not as strong as the once was.I mentioned before that i think this one of the few areas where i think Liberals are making inroads into the Muslim vote. I attribute that to Ned Mannoun who is popular. Even in the 2023 state election. the Libs got swings to them in both Liverpool and Holsworthy in the Muslim areas.

@nimalan it should also be noted in an election where labor did overwhelmingly good in terms of swings towarsd them the needle in werriwa barely moved towards Stanley only .35% also barely got a swing when the disaster of turnbull and the end of abbot years and lost votes in 2019 to morrison and have been struggling ever since ruudd was toppled. now that its the libs turn to be in opposition werriwa will be an easy pickup in my opinion

@nimalan if dai le runs here stanley is as good as gone

@ John i have posted on the Werriwa thread to continue this.

For those that aren’t aware. This was Labors highest primary vote seat in 2013! Times have changed. It was the only seat they cracked 60% on the primary that year. And some of the few electorates in the country Labor reached 50% of the primary that year, and oddly they were almost all in western Sydney which was supposed to be mayhem for Labor in 2013.

Tu Le will be the Labor candidate next election. Impressive CV and candidate but wrong timing.

Dai Le will hold unless there’s a major gaffe.

Dai le will easily hold. However her future may be determined by who she chooses to side with in the hung parliament. This seat is the future of Fairfield as McMahon will slowly be drawn into blacktown unless there’s an increase to parliament even then they may choose to make it the 3rd blacktown seat

Btw any relation or just common name?

@John – I believe not.

This seat is lineball IMO. Yes, Dai Le will probably have a sophomore surge next election, but it’s important to note her victory came off the back of a big protest vote against Labor. Tu Le was overlooked for preselection in 2022 (she even had the endorsement of the outgoing MP). Tu Le could gain back a lot of the Vietnamese vote (which could give her a win), but I think Dai Le should win with an increased margin. She has profile, support, and popularity in Fowler.

As the libs have found out independents are hard to dislodge especially when u have an incumbent government with problems