Dunkley – Australia 2022

1. “Minor parties preferences…”

   Just checking – you know that no party can actually decide preferences, yeah?

   They just print a “how to vote” card and hope their voters follow it.

   It’s up to the voters to decide who to preference. Only a small minority actually follow the card.

2. Ryoma, I suspect that Expat is right about the preferences of the right wingers staying with the Liberal candidate, but it raises an interesting question for the independent candidates about whether they are prepared to keep protecting the Liberal candidate from answering any questions.

3. Expat, yes, I understand that. But even just announcing a change of preferences can shift the conversation, change perceptions of who will win, and take valuable time away from whatever a major party candidate would rather be campaigning on topic-wise.

4. Regards minor right wing candidates and who they preference – for an example at the last election UAP voters preferenced Coalition over Labor about 65-35 or so.

   The right-wing minors and conspiracy theorists will again largely preference the Libs.

   BUT this has nothing to do with the “preference” decisions of the parties.

   It’s entirely up to the voters.

5. Good that you understand that – it’s astounding how many voters don’t. Even a lot of well-educated people…

6. The preferences of the right wing parties will be less friendly to the liberals. And I suspect because they are candidates in some cases just filling the numbers have no connection to the seat they stand in

7. I live in the electorate, we are lucky to have two great female leading candidates from the major parties. Both Peta or Sharne would do a great job representing the people of Dunkley at a Federal level. I look forward to the result on May 21st.

8. Richmondgrass, I am glad to hear you feel that. It’s not a sentiment expressed in many of these seat comments!

9. I’d argue that Peta already does do a great representing us 😉 Although obviously I’m pretty partisan.

   Having said that – it is pretty good to see two strong female candidates in what is a competitive seat for both sides.

   Peta was at Carrum Downs prepoll today, I think Sharn was too.

   Anecdotal evidence looked like more people were taking Labor HTVs than Libs, but was a mix.

10. Voted today at Frankston pre-poll. Neither candidate was there (probably both at CarrumDowns). Most the interesting discussion going into voting was that the Liberal candidate does not actually live locally despite having said she moved here a year ago. The Liberals also confirmed that to be the case. Feels like this issue growing into a problem for the Liberal candidate.

11. The voting patterns of this electorate follow class lines. The working class north votes Labor, while the upper middle class south votes Liberal. The Liberals poll as high in Mount Eliza as they do in Toorak.

    Dunkley is a real WASP electorate. There used to be a right wing magazine oriented to the English community, called This England (or something of the sort) that espoused Loyalist propaganda. It was full of anti Irish trash. The editor lived in Mount Eliza. I had the misfortune of coming across him once.

    This electorate gave the football world Dermott Brereton, as it was part of the old Hawthorn recruiting zone. Leigh Matthews came from Chelsea, but that is part of Isaacs.

12. This electorate produced quite a number of AFL players, but not sure what that has to do with the election.

    As for it being WASPy, as a local I would dispute that, other than maybe in Mt Eliza. The rest of the electorate is pretty mixed socially, albeit pretty white. The most influential religious vote here isn’t rich Anglicans, it’s conservative Pentecostals like Geoff Shaw etc.

    Also, I don’t think there’s actually many people left who really have a distinction between Anglo or Irish types, or would even know who is which without asking. The local member is called Murphy for pete’s sake.

13. Pentecostals are Protestants.

    The electorate still has an above average number of Anglicans.

14. Just got a recorded robocall from John Howard here in Dunkley tonight! What else do you do when your candidate lives in Richmond and refuses to turn up to the community debates? It does not feel like this is the close contest that some expected. People have really turned off Morrison and I can’t see how the big Liberal spending on advertising will match the credibility of a very hard working and popular sitting member.

15. Some of my work colleagues where called by the ALP as well…..so it’s an actively fought for seat.

16. In 3 elections, Murphy has achieved 3 big swings on to turn this seat from a 5.6% Liberal seat under Bruce Bilson (a local) to a 6.7% Labor seat under Peta Murphy (also a local) – one of the country’s biggest flips. Given the folly of fly-by-night candidates seen elsewhere during this election, will the Liberals finally learn that drop in candidates with little connection to the community (like Crewther and Coombs) are going to get smashed by strong, well known locals? Will they learn the lesson?

17. Barry to be fair the swing over 3 elections was amplified slightly by the 2018 redistribution which added about 2-3% to the Labor margin without Peta Murphy contesting. Also some other factors may be in play, namely 2016 being an open seat contest costing the Liberal Party some votes and then Peta Murphy also having some sophomore surge in her favour when recontesting in 2022.

18. Yoh An, fair point – the redistribution was 2.4% of the 12% shift and Murphy got a swing beyond this that would have won 2019 regardless. But you’re actually making my main point here – that the two big swings were when the Liberals preselected candidates (Crewther in 2016 and Coombs in 2022) that had no local connections. They paid a big price at the ballot box for doing so, despite their huge and expensive advertising campaigns in both cases.

19. Yeah agree with you Barry, if the Libs had chosen some better candidates the swing to Labor could have been minimised at both elections despite unfavorable conditions.

20. The Libs struggled to generate enthusiasim for their candidate here, ex-ALP member Sharn Coombes. A very odd choice.

21. Pretty sure Billson was regarded as a very strong and popular Liberal MP, so perhaps the trend to Labor after he departed is as much a reflection of him being ‘good’ rather than everyone else being ‘bad’.

22. Mark, Bruce Bilson was a very popular local member. That is my point – he was credible locally. The Libs have not had that since, irrespective of the quality of their candidates (which I accept is debatable). They need to find a local to run.

23. Big swings to the ALP in the safe liberal part but a small swing in some of the safe Labor parts.

24. My biggest condolences go to the Labor MP who passed away.

    Liberal gain at the by-election, this the Liberal party’s best chance to capitalize on the failed voice. I suspect a by-election loss for the government will give the government a huge wakeup call and they will start to turn things around.

25. Local member has unfortunately died here, will be interesting to see if the LNP contest here in the by-election.

26. Daniel
    I’m not so convinced as the state liberals are suing themselves which will definitely hurt the opposition, however if Labor loses here then I don’t see Anthony Albanese surviving as leader.

27. My condolences to the family and friends of Peta Murphy.

    What’s the precedent for major parties running in a by-election triggered by the death of an MP from the opposite party? I know in the UK such by-elections tend not to be contested (except by the incumbent party and minor parties).

28. Deepest condolences as well from myself very sad news

29. Nicholas, the last federal by-election held following the death of an MP was Canning in 2015 (Don Randall, Liberal MP). In that case, the Labor Party still fielded a candidate (Matt Keogh, who is now the MP for Burt) even though it was a Coalition held seat.

    I believe the 2001 Aston by election (held following the death of Liberal MP Peter Nugent) also featured a Labor challenger.

30. Did the Liberals decline to run in the 2000 Isaacs by-election due to the nature of the MP’s death or for some other reason?

31. Greens ran and won in the Northcote by election

    Labor ran in the Canning by election.

    There’s no rule or expectation that you can’t run.

32. I read that the death of then Isaacs MP Greg Wilton was due to potential suicide rather than illness, so maybe being a more high-profile loss attracted more sympathy and thus the Liberal Party declined to run a candidate.

    Also, the incumbent Coalition was quite unpopular at that time due to the introduction of GST, so they could also have not contested to avoid the humiliation of a large swing against them.

33. > I know in the UK such by-elections tend not to be contested (except by the incumbent party and minor parties).

    Not true. The by-elections following the murders of David Amess and Jo Cox were not contested by the major parties. But they were the exceptions, not the rule.

34. @David Walsh

    Thanks for the correction. I guess I only noticed those cases since (for obvious reasons) they made it into the media here.

35. In a democracy you don’t want murdering an MP to be a way to change local representation.

    On the other hand if a party gets to nominate their representative uncontested after death in general, that also doesn’t really gel with democratic principles all that well. Looks like “succession”. So fine to contest the by election.

36. It is dad news about Peta Murphy.

    Dunkley will be an interesting by election as the seat is so diverse.

    Mount Eliza has always been establishment posh and they were the booths that swung very heavily to the ALP last time – if the Libs recover here it will bode well for them in seats like Higgins, Ryan and the Teal seats.
    Carrum Downs is classic outer suburban mortgage belt – tradie land – like the rest of Dunkley very Anglo. Some of the booths swung to the Coalition last time.
    Seaford – closer to the Bay slightly more upmarket than Carrum Downs – a mixed bag last time with small swings in both directions
    Frankston – small swings to Labor in most of Frankston but not in North Frankston – larger swings to Labor in Frankston South which is more affluent.

    It will be closer to the elections and there will be a lot more lessons to learn than from Aston.

37. “Sad” news – sorry

38. Very unfortunate to hear about the passing of Peta Murphy.

    There’s no expectation or protocol that when an MP dies, their main opponent sits out the by-election. The Liberals may choose to run to test the waters in Victoria and also as a mid-term barometer and to see if they have recovered following the Aston by-election.

39. Closing comments here now, you can continue the conversation at the by-election guide.

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