NAT 13.3%
Incumbent MP
Andrew Gee, since 2016. Previously state member for Orange, 2011-2016.
Geography
Central West NSW. Calare covers the towns of Bathurst, Lithgow, Blayney, Orange, Oberon, Mudgee and Wellington, as well as other areas around those towns.
History
Calare was first created for the 1906 election, replacing the abolished seat of Canobolas. The seat has been held by all political parties over the last century.
The seat was first won by Thomas Brown (ALP) in 1906. Brown had previously held Canobolas since 1901, and he held the seat until he was defeated in 1913 by Henry Pigott of the Commonwealth Liberal Party. He held the seat for the Liberals and the Nationalists until he was defeated by Thomas Lavelle (ALP) in 1919.
Lavelle was defeated in 1922 by Major General Neville Howse, who won the seat for the Nationalists. Pigott had also contested the seat unsuccessfully for the new Country Party. Howse won a Victoria Cross during the Boer War and went on to serve as a senior officer in the First World War.
Howse served as a minister in the Stanley Bruce government before losing his seat in 1929 to George Gibbons (ALP), who was defeated by Harold Thorby of the Country Party at the next election. Thorby had previously been a state minister and went on to serve as a minister in Joseph Lyons’ federal government.
Thorby was defeated by John Breen (ALP) in 1940, and Breen held the seat until his defeat in 1946 by John Howse (LIB), the son of the former member for the seat Neville Howse.
Howse junior held the seat until his resignation in 1960. John England of the Country Party won the seat in the following by-election, and held it until the 1975 election. The seat was then won by Sandy Mackenzie.
Sandy Mackenzie lost the seat to David Simmons (ALP) in 1983. Simmons served as a federal minister from 1989 to 1993, and retired at the 1996 election.
The seat was won in 1996 by former television journalist Peter Andren, running as an independent. Andren won the seat on a 29% primary vote in 1996, with the ALP, Nationals and Liberals all polling less. Andren won 63% of the two-party preferred vote against the Nationals.
Andren set out an independent path, pursuing progressive politics while promoting regional interests. He was re-elected in 1998, 2001 and 2004 with over 70% of the two-party preferred vote.
The 2007 election saw the seat of Calare effectively abolished in its existing form, and Andren announced plans to run for the Senate in New South Wales. However, he was diagnosed with cancer and cancelled his plans to run for the Senate and decided to retire. Andren died of cancer in early November 2007, and the seat was won by John Cobb (NAT), then a junior minister in the Howard government and Member for Parkes.
In 2010, Calare was recreated in its previous form, losing areas in the northwest of the state gained in 2007, and regaining those areas lost to Macquarie in 2007. Cobb increased his margin from 53.5% to 60.7%. He was re-elected again with a larger margin in 2013.
Cobb retired in 2016, and was succeeded by Nationals state MP Andrew Gee, who had held the overlapping state electorate of Orange since 2011. Gee was re-elected in 2019.
- Kate Hook (Independent)
- Stacey Whittaker (One Nation)
- Kay Nankervis (Greens)
- Sarah Elliott (Labor)
- Andrew Gee (Nationals)
- Adam Jannis (United Australia)
Assessment
Calare is a safe Nationals seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Andrew Gee | Nationals | 46,632 | 44.7 | -2.9 |
| Jess Jennings | Labor | 23,074 | 22.1 | -4.9 |
| Sam Romano | Shooters, Fishers and Farmers | 18,129 | 17.4 | +17.4 |
| Stephanie Luke | Greens | 6,315 | 6.1 | -1.2 |
| Stephen Bisgrove | Liberal Democrats | 4,775 | 4.6 | -2.0 |
| Beverley Cameron | United Australia Party | 3,371 | 3.2 | +3.2 |
| Shuyi Chen | Christian Democratic Party | 1,992 | 1.9 | -0.5 |
| Informal | 6,251 | 5.7 | +0.5 |
2019 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Andrew Gee | Nationals | 66,006 | 63.3 | +1.5 |
| Jess Jennings | Labor | 38,282 | 36.7 | -1.5 |
Booths have been divided into six parts. Polling places in the three main towns, Orange, Bathurst and Lithgow, have been grouped together. The remaining booths have been split into north, south-east and south-west.
The Nationals won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all six areas, with the narrowest wins in the three urban centres, ranging from 51.4% in Lithgow to 61.4% in Orange, winning close to 64% in the north and south-east and 71% in the south-east.
The Shooters, Fishers and Farmers came third, with a primary vote ranging from 12.4% in Bathurst to 22.2% in the south-west.
| Voter group | SFF prim % | NAT 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Orange | 21.4 | 61.4 | 14,296 | 13.7 |
| North | 17.1 | 63.5 | 9,828 | 9.4 |
| South-West | 22.2 | 71.2 | 9,151 | 8.8 |
| South-East | 15.5 | 63.7 | 8,395 | 8.0 |
| Bathurst | 12.4 | 54.8 | 8,312 | 8.0 |
| Lithgow | 13.0 | 51.4 | 3,527 | 3.4 |
| Pre-poll | 17.1 | 64.9 | 43,517 | 41.7 |
| Other votes | 15.7 | 61.9 | 7,262 | 7.0 |
Election results in Calare at the 2019 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Nationals, Labor and the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers.
Calare for a long time till about 1977 did not include either Bathurst or Lithgow…….. Labor won in 1983 by polling 66% or better in Lithgow and a 55 to 58% vote in Bathurst…….. Orange split slightly less than 60% in favour of the Nationals. In 2007 a reduced version of these sums held……when the seat was part of Macquarie along with the Blue Mountains. post 2010 the Alp vote in Bathurst and Lithgow fell and it appears this trend has continued …….. This at the present time is a safe National Party seat but the demographics dont support it. Also half the electorate voted other than on election day with an average of 63% national vote…… I put that down to good organisation by the Nats
The only way this seat becomes an issue for the National Party is if the Labor Party decides to run dead and push SFF into 2nd place. This makes the election very right. Anything else and it is a safe NAT seat.
Hawkeye_au
Andrew Gee is a man amongst boys. He is clearly outstanding, & would be my choice as Nat leader. I can’t imagine any scenario where he is under any real threat
cheers wd
A few interesting things to note from the Calare in 2019. The SFF did much better at the Orange end of the seat (where they hold the state seat) than the eastern parts around Bathurst and Lithgow. On the whole the Orange booths swung to the ALP on the 2pp. Around Lithgow, the ALP vote collapsed and the Nats were the beneficiary – mining town, mining voters – similar to what happened in Hunter and Capricornia. The Nat majority here might be quite soft if these voters peel off to left or right.
An unknown in Calare will be what effect the ‘tree changer’ effect will have. Orange in particular haa become tree change central and these voters may not necessarily align with either the SFF or the Nats.
Redistributed
Absolutely correct on all counts about Orange Lithgow & so on
Here is the thing this is a test of how a strong member can build his vote, influence his constituency etc.
Calare is light years away from where it was under Peter Andren.
WD jnr is a member of the SFF tells me that they have been riven with thousands of resignations over labor preferencing that is seen as supporting the Greens. So i don’t see them as the force they were, or will become.
i believe that any ‘tree changers’ will either be culturally assimilated or impressed with the calibre of Gee
CHEERS WD
i see this moving further toward the Nats
No chance, most people under 40 will be voting for whatever green or teal candidate is in their electorate, soz guys, we are sick of the old only 2 choices propaganda. :p
I’m over 50 and over the major parties, so independent, green,labor,nats , then the other nut job rabble
Lib-Labs going to get suprised this time around. If you want to congregate around slobs like Slomo, Albasleazi or Barny that’s up to you, but you’ll find people are over your gangs and you uninspired leaders
With the absence of the SFF and the general decline of support for the party even if they did contest. This actually might be one of those rare seats that bucks the national trend and potential gets a swing to the Nats on the primary and TPP. I expect Labor to also improve their vote but I don’t expect that to outweigh the swing to Gee on the primary vote and the leakage of preferences from the other candidates except for the Greens.
NAT retain with a 0-2% swing in their favour.
There is a long term decline for Labor vote in the east of the seat especially around Bathurst and Lithgow similar to the La Trobe Valley (Vic). This used to be a marginal seat which Labor held in the past. Also look how the state seat of Bathurst has changed to a super safe Nat seat from the home of Ben Chifley.
A bit more background on independent candidate Kate Hook would be in order; who is funding her campaign, an explanation of what she could hope to achieve for Calare if one or the other major parties holds power in its own right, more in- depth information on her past employment positions and outcomes and whether or not personal circumstances may set her at odds with the majority of Calare electors from all parties, other than the Greens and Kate herself, on social issues. We pretty much know all there is to be known about Andrew Gee – why should Kate hold back a day or so before the election ?
Interesting result here. It seems that the Nats have benefited with SFF not standing and have increased their primary vote here. Also Kate Hook seemed to take votes off SFF and Labor. This used to be a marginal seat and Labor would have come within 2% on these boundaries in 2007. Interested to know what the NAT/Labor TPP would be and if Labor would have won any booths if it was a traditional two party contest at this election. Labor used to be strong around Bathurst and Lithgow.
Federal National MP Andrew Gee has resigned from the Nationals and will sit as an independent. The reason being the Nationals decision to oppose the indigenous voice to parliament.
The late Former Independent Peter Andren held the seat of Calare from 1996 until he retired in 2007. So I’m thinking Gee would have likely taken that into consideration when making his decision.
Andrew Gee will not win this as an independent, he is not a personable or likeable individual.
The vote will be fractured gee
Alp green.nat. what is kate hook runs again
As much as I disagree with his reason for defecting (I oppose the voice and will be voting No) You have to give any parliamentarian credit for having bravery to quit the party and possibly end their political career, However in a modern western democracy, I think anyone who quits the party banner they were elected upon should resign and trigger a by-election because the people of Calare voted National.
As others have pointed out he probably doesn’t have too much personal vote and it isn’t fair to most voters who voted for the Nats/Coalition rather than just him, I bet at most he would get 15-20% of the vote and would probably come 2nd and 3rd place. Labor would preference him above the Nats, but you couldn’t say the same thing about the other parties.
The Nats should allow a conscience vote on the issue of the indigenous voice even though I think it was right that they opposed the issue by-itself.
@ daniel T I agree its his right to do what he believes is right and I believe once the vote is oover and done with he will rejoin the party. on another note with the upcoming redistribution and the fact it no longer contains its namesake for the aboriginal word for the Lachlan RIver il be suggesting a name change to Brock after racing legend Peter Brock as the division contains Mount Panorama
@Daniel T so should Labor
Any thoughts on this seat leading into 2025?
Andrew Gee has been an independent for two years now and the Nats have their own candidate already.
I think Gee is a decent politician (one of the few moderates left in his former party) but if Gee left the Nationals Party due to their stance on the Voice then he’ll find it hard to win re-election given his electorate voted 70% No for the Voice. It seems to me that the Nationals, with their resources and the high profile nature of their candidate (NSW MLC Sam Farraway) are favoured to regain/retain the seat.
Having said all that, never say never given Peter Andren won 4 terms in office on (almost) the same boundaries even as the Coalition won all those elections decisively. If Gee has gathered up some sort of personal vote during his time that is able to help him sail over the line on preferences then it would be a narrow retain against the Nats but nothing to be comfortable about.
@Votante he’ll likely just lose his seat. The whole “regional independent” thing has been a career-ender on the federal level ever since Rob Oakeshott and Tony Windsor betrayed their own electorates. It’s less toxic on the state level but I still reckon that if the members for Northern Tablelands and Port Macquarie defected they would lose too.
Kate Hook who ran as a Teal in 2022 and who won 20% of the vote is running again. The Shooters hold the state seat of Orange so it is a seat that is prepared to not vote for a party line. One Nation did reasonably well lsst time with no Shooter running. Hard to see the Nats not leading. Likely that Labor and Greens would preference Kate Hook over Gee. Question will be where Gee sends his preferences – to the Nats or to Hook? Could end up being very close with the winner coming from second or third.
@Redistributed Orange is not a SFF seat anymore, the member defected to become an independent and got re-elected in 2023 as an independent. SFF actually have no lower house seats in NSW anymore because all their MPs left to become independents because of Robert Borsak’s behaviour around women.
I think this seat could be interesting. It will depend on how much of a personal vote he can hold accompanied with the other independent it will depend on where they both send their preferences. Labor will obviously preference Gee and the other woman over the Nats.
There will likely be a three way contest. Greens and Labor tend to preference teals before each other. and thus I’m sensing they’ll preference Kate Hook before Andrew Gee.
Who makes the final two will depend on Andrew Gee’s personal vote. Potentially, we could see a swing away from Kate Hook because she’s running against an independent and not a Morrison government member like last time.
@Votante you mean two-way? Labor can’t win this.
Potentially the Nationals and the final two candidates from last time – Andrew Gee and Kate Hook. Kate Hook got 20% on primaries last time but made the final two with preferences from Labor and Greens.
I think given the low vote of both labor and the greens that the teal likely won’t get up again given that 2022 was a low tide election for the coalition. Gee could potentially retain if labor and the greens and the teal preference him. But I think the nats May retain due to the fact teals don’t offer preferences and leakage back to the nats should get them over the required 50%.
The preference flows in 2022 showed high leakages with ON prefs going to Hook and 30% of Labor preferences going to the Nats on the last count. One factor in this seat is the ability of parties to service the high number of smallish rural booths – the Gee defection could hamper the Nats coverage – but the other parties will struggle. This could lead to high leakages as voters will need to work it out for themselves.
@Redistributed the preference flows to the Nationals over independent Kate Hook in Calare were:
* Greens: 21.1%
* Labor: 26.7%
* One Nation: 56.8%
* UAP: 57.5%
The Nationals ended up getting 59.7% of the TPP vote from a primary vote of 47.7% (there was actually a small swing to the Nationals on primaries and on the notional TPP against Labor). The right preferenced the Nationals but the left overwhelmingly preferenced Hook.
@Votante: It is most likely that Andrew Gee and the Nationals will be in the final two. Preferences from Labor, Greens and Kate Hook voters will all favour Gee over the Nationals. There’s an outside chance that Gee can capture the votes of so many voters who voted for him as a Nationals candidate in 2022 that the Nationals fall to the third place, in this case the Nationals’ preferences will favour Gee (who is an ex-National) over Hook. In both these scenarios Gee should be re-elected as an independent.
@Darth Vader: “Teals don’t offer preferences”: Preference flows from one independent to another independent over a major party is likely to be strong. In 2022 Groom, independent Kirstie Smolenski’s preferences flew 78.57% to fellow independent Suzie Holt over the LNP. When Smolenski was excluded, Holt, One Nation, Labor and LNP candidates were left, and Smolenski’s preferences flew 64.42% to Holt, lifting her pass One Nation. In 2022 Bradfield, independent Janine Kitson’s preferences flew 83.27% to fellow independent Nicolette Boele over the Liberal Party. When Kitson was excluded, Boele, UAP, Labor, Liberal and Greens candidates were left, and Kitsen’s preferences flew 59.53% to Boele.
@Joseph there’s no way the Nationals will slip to third. I’m writing that off entirely.
In regional, rural and remote electorates (especially federal ones) many people don’t know who their MP is because the electorates are so big, so they often vote for a party not a person.
@np Nats wont finish 3rd here the same way they wont finish 3rd in Richmond. they simply control enough of the vote to make the 2cp. the only way they slip to third here is if the liberals run and split the vote.
but that wont happen here because the nats will claim the seat as an eleted nats seat despite the candidate jumping ship. the same way the nats wont run in monash as the libs will claim it.