LIB 6.3%
Incumbent MP
David Coleman, since 2013.
Geography
Southern Sydney. Banks covers large parts of the St George area and neighbouring suburbs. It includes most of the Georges River council area and parts of the Canterbury-Bankstown council area. Key suburbs include East Hills, Panania, Padstow, Picnic Point, Revesby, Mortdale, Peakhurst, Penshurst, Allawah and Oatley.
History
Banks was created for the 1949 election, and was held by Labor continuously until 2013.
The seat was first won in 1949 by Labor candidate Dominic Costa. Costa held the seat for twenty years, always as a member of the opposition, retiring in 1969.
Vince Martin was elected in 1969, and held the seat until he was defeated for preselection in 1980 by John Mountford. Mountford held the seat until his retirement in 1990.
In 1990, Banks was won by Labor candidate Daryl Melham. Melham held the seat for over two decades, serving in the Opposition shadow ministry from 1996 to 1998 and again from 2001 to 2004. Successive swings against the ALP wore his margin down to 1.06% in 2004, although a favourable redistribution before the 2007 election, combined with a swing of almost 8%, made the seat much safer.
Daryl Melham narrowly held on in 2010 despite a 9% swing, and in 2013 he lost to Liberal candidate David Coleman with a further 3.3% swing. Coleman was re-elected in 2016 and 2019.
- David Coleman (Liberal)
- Elouise Cocker (Liberal Democrats)
- Marika Momircevski (United Australia)
- Natalie Hanna (Greens)
- Steve Khouw (Independent)
- Malcolm Heffernan (One Nation)
- Zhi Soon (Labor)
Assessment
Banks has a long history as a Labor seat, but Coleman has built up a substantial margin. The Liberal Party would be optimistic of holding on to this seat but it isn’t particularly safe.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| David Coleman | Liberal | 46,709 | 50.9 | +7.0 |
| Chris Gambian | Labor | 33,341 | 36.3 | -3.6 |
| Gianluca Dragone | Greens | 5,339 | 5.8 | 0.0 |
| Ki Man Ho | Christian Democratic Party | 2,624 | 2.9 | -2.5 |
| Reginald Wright | United Australia Party | 2,029 | 2.2 | +2.2 |
| Anjali Thakur | Animal Justice | 1,688 | 1.8 | +0.1 |
| Informal | 7,115 | 7.2 | +0.3 |
2019 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| David Coleman | Liberal | 51,609 | 56.3 | +4.8 |
| Chris Gambian | Labor | 40,121 | 43.7 | -4.8 |
Booths have been divided into three parts: north-east, south-east and west. The “west” covers all of those booths west of Salt Pan Creek, which also aligns with the former Bankstown council area. The remainder of the electorate is mostly contained in the Georges River council, along with a small part of the Canterbury part of the Canterbury-Bankstown council area. This remainder is divided into the suburbs nearer the river in the south-east and the others in the north-east.
The Liberal Party’s two-party-preferred vote ranged from 51.8% in the north-east to 60.2% in the south-east.
| Voter group | LIB 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| North-East | 51.8 | 20,862 | 22.7 |
| West | 54.9 | 20,663 | 22.5 |
| South-East | 60.2 | 16,841 | 18.4 |
| Pre-poll | 57.9 | 22,493 | 24.5 |
| Other votes | 57.9 | 10,871 | 11.9 |
Election results in Banks at the 2019 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party and Labor.
@ Dan M, excellent point raised. It is important to note that this election Labor did not win a single booth west of Salt Pan Creek. In 2013 and 2016 they won several, shows how much this area has changed (also look at the state seat of East Hills). From a demographic point of view i would prefer is Milperra is added from Blaxland and the area East of King George Road transferred to Barton. I feel that Barton should not cross the Cooks River to include Marrickville etc which fit better in Grayndler.
I remember incessant comparisons treating this seat and Reid as similar seats or even a single entity on this site. I pushed back on it at the time and it’s pleasing to see the results vindicate that. The west part is definitely “battler” territory along the lines of Lindsay and Hughes and, along with the riverfront suburbs, continuing to trend Liberal, while the same cannot be said of the Hurstville/Beverly Hills section. The latter is only a minority in this seat, however.
Unless Banks boundaries are change dramatically I think for the foreseeable future it will stay with the LNP. What will be interesting is what will happen when David Coleman retires, how much does he have of a personal vote here?
If the redistribution makes minimal changes to Banks, I agree adding Milperra and maybe gaining a few riverside suburbs back from Cook would make sense.
Since Sydney is under quota and many surrounding seats are named after PMs (Barton, Watson, Cook, Hughes), I can see scenarios where Banks gets heavily squeezed, maybe even abolished.
It will be interesting to see what the redistribution data shows.
@Bob There were rumours floating that Coleman might quit before the election since he was absent for a very long time. Now that he’s one of the few moderates left in the party room, it would be interesting to see if he quits in 2025. I believe he has already moved out of the electorate. It’s possible Scott Yung might be waiting around to try and take the seat since he’s been rather quiet lately after Fiona Martin was parachuted into Reid where he was favoured to be preselected in 2019 and the seat overlaps with the state Kogarah seat where he contested in 2019.
I have heard rumours that Coleman now lives at Cronulla and he is disillusioned with being an mp. He only stood again to help the liberals like Ken Wyatt did. I think he has a personal vote in Banks how much I don’t know. The liberals would do well to have him as the Candiate for Cook when Morrison pulls the plug.
Making good and moving to Cronulla would resonate well with most voters in Banks
Lately, there’s been a lot of discussion on how the Israel/Gaza issue will influence voters.
If I’m not mistaken, this is the Liberal seat with the largest Arab/Muslim population. Much of the Arab/Muslim population live in suburbs along the train line, towards the north of the electorate. In 2022 in the Liberals won most booths towards the north. There is quite a bit for the Liberals to lose. The relative size of the Arab/Muslim vote will shrink post-redistribution if Banks expands eastward and takes up Blakehurst. It will increase if Banks expands northward towards Canterbury Road.
Voters, who have Israel/Gaza on their minds, may switch to independents and minor parties and their preferences could decide who wins. Since Labor is in government, Labor could be one getting shafted more. At the same time, those voters may not be rushing to vote Liberal.
The israel/ga@ issue is going to hurt laborin two directions. Labor depend on both Jewish and Muslim votes but whenever the Gaza issue comes to a head Labor try and play both sides and end up losing them both due to being weak against Israel and too strong towards Palestine the greens and coalition have chosen opposite sides and will attract those voters
Coleman will win again if he sits in 2025. Padstow and Revesby are rapidly gentrifying from working-class suburbs into strong Liberal “family” territories. Furthermore, Georges River waterfront suburbs are becoming increasingly filled with wealthy business owners, who (as expected) will vote Liberal. The Chinese/Asian vote will likely return to Liberals after the Scomo era of hardline politics due to conservative social values.
The only thing that would hurt his chances is if the seat is redistributed to include the lower SES areas of Riverwood, Narwee etc.
However, with regards to the Muslim vote, if they really do boycott Labor they will end up helping Coleman instead. They have always voted Labour, and taking away those votes will end up reducing Labor’s primary votes – pushing Coleman up.
He is very popular and is seen to be doing good in the community (unlike Wendy Lindsay who was often absent/didn’t reply to calls/emails very much.),
@wombater thwy said they will be voting against sitting mps who support Israel / don’t support Palestine but it will be irrelevant since they already voted labor here.
Liberal hold.