Reid – Australia 2019

Lest we forget (or forgot according to the failed Canada Bay Anzac Day banners) this whole policy issue concerning infrastructure and over-development that Crosby keeps harping on about. One of Crosby’s backers and mate is long time Labor Canada Bay Mayor Angelo Tsirekas who is a contributing factor to over-development along the foreshore of Cabarita, Mortlake and Concord. Its all public knowledge, what you infer is up to you but here are the facts. Crosby would never have gotten pre-selected if it weren’t for Tsirekas so he must have cut a deal with the man. Crosby is great mates with Sam Dastyari and Eddie Obeid Junior. Labor cronies. He’s just another hollow man. Whereby, Dr Martin is a CLEAN SKIN. She’s a safer bet and the electorate knows it. So Crosby can campaign for as long as he wants but it will never erase his past, history or mates.

Has this website been stacked with lib shills? Its seems like so many commenters here are naive about so many different factors. Some of you don’t seem to realise that Sam Crosby went to the same school as Fiona Martin. Not to mention the fact that Sam actually lives in the electorate, while Martin lives in Northern Sydney.
Additionally, Fiona Martin being competent? She doesn’t know what Reid wants. Apart from the fact that she doesn’t live in the electorate, she’s only been spruiking the messages that head office has told her to spruik. She wasn’t even a member of the Liberal party until she was parachuted in and the sub-branch had to waive that fact. Don’t you think someone who really cared about these issues would’ve at least tried to help her preferred party by boosting the base membership? Or even ever publicly endorse the party? Being a child psychologist and regular on some late morning tv shows does not somehow magically make her the perfect candidate. I’m not saying Sam is perfect either. However, he has experience at a high level. First Class Honours in Economics, President of USYD USU, President of Young Labor, experience in the PM’s office, Johnson and Johnson economist, CEO of Mckell Institute. Call him a party hack all you want. Go through his social media and appearances on other forms of media such as SkyNews and The Drum. Take a look at what he was doing even before he was campaigning. He has always remained true to the tenants of social justice and has always argued for a wide range of issues that affect working people. He has remained consistent to his core beliefs. has demonstrated proper leadership and has always been a local of Reid.
May I also just mention: All three state divisions within Reid had swings towards Labor in March. With Laundy and Turnbull gone, and the way that the Liberal party has been slowly crumbling, Reid is a great shot for Labor.

@Alex
I see where you are coming from. There’s been no adverse findings against any of Crosby’s associates but I understand based upon your previous insights that these relationships is more demonstrative of an elitist ‘cronyism’ that Dr Martin is not subject to which makes her ‘cleaner’ in a sense and more authentic and fresh in the eyes of the voting public.

Again you are spot on Trish.

It comes as no small irony that Crosby’s latest leaflets show him as a pampered spoiled little child and Fiona Martin has a PHD in child psychology.

Fiona Martin is authentic, fresh and mature.

the sums are Laundy was popular… he got a swing in this seat of one and a half percent despite the General swing to labor in new….;now I reckon his personal vote is worth 2% which was now lost to the libs… so if I am right the margin is about 3% with that sort of 2pp swing. So this is a line ball contest. Ms Martin is disliked by parts of the Liberal party…….. her own side….. they called her views off the reservation.
I don’t have any preconceived ideas about her … other than that she is a Liberal and as such shares the faults of the Liberal Government

Mick
You need to add a demographic swing in this seat about 1/2% per year at least. i figure SAM MAY CLIP 2-3 % of the margin, & lose narrowly. A credible performance in a state that won’t swing. Something may change.

@Winediamond your analysis is very good. I agree.

@Chris, I disagree with you. And I’m a swing voter. In fact, your critique actually supports mine and many others here. You’ve demonstrated how much of an elitist party hack Crosby is. And he was only in government relations with J&J and left when his contacts dried up after Labor’s defeat in 2013. His job at the Mckell was given to him by his “mates”. What a boy’s club. And Crosby parachuted into Reid some years ago but couldn’t get the numbers and stuck around because as others have commented, he didn’t like Londonderry. Crosby is a floater. His policies are all over the place and he will say whatever he thinks is in trend at the time. Back at USYD when he was president he wanted to introduce pokies onto campus and in Reid he wanted to introduce child care facilities into Clubs like the one in Canada Bay where pokies are played. I can’t condone such policies. Fiona Martin is solid in her convictions and protecting the interest of children. Even Crosby says we should need more women in Parliament. Why didn’t he step aside and let a woman to run in Reid? What a hypocrite. And now his wife is in the NSW Upper House. The nepotism is sickening.

Oh my goodness Trish! I’m just reading your comments on the train. Spot on again! (and I too agree with winediamond) And respectfully to Chris-

WOMEN Crosby did say we needed more women in parliament. So why didn’t he support one for Reid then?
NEPOTISM Rose Jackson is his wife and she just stepped into the NSW upper house without a single vote from the public. Crosby and his wife are treating politics like a family business!
JOB’S FOR MATES Crosby’s party networks led to union, political, Johnson and Johnson and McKell jobs. Fiona Martin is self-made with a PHD. One up from honours.
HYPOCRISY There’s a housing commission near the Canada Bay Club and Crosby wants child care facilities in there so people on the dole can dump their kids and play the pokies. Oh please no.

Come on Chris. Don’t you see the hypocrisy at play here? This isn’t about party politics but how our tax money is being spent. I don’t trust Crosby.

oh it just amazes me the Hatred some seem to have for Sam Crosby….. there are plenty of liberal mps who worked for the party machine or a business organisation or a conservative think tank… then went into politics
.. Mr Howard, Mr Wilson … Mr Corrman to name just 3… no one is looking at Abbotts lies… the corruption of Paladin, Hello.world the water buy backs… the tax cuts for the wealthy…. the shifting of the relative shares of wages and profits etc.. this is what it is all about… Sam will be if elected part of a alp govt which will shift the balance towards a more just and fair Australia

Putting aside the discussion on the candidates (seems like a pile-on against Crosby, but he makes himself a big target with that kind of career path, so fair play) the thing everyone is missing and getting wrong in the media is in Chris’s last paragraph – most of Reid swung to Labor at the state election. This was despite Daley’s racist comments about Asian immigration.

And you can put it down to candidates being well connected with very specific demographics across the area. I just don’t see Fiona Martin getting this with only a month to work with. She can walk around with John Howard all she likes, but Crosby has done the groundwork for a long time and that is everything in a seat like this.

The ongoing links with the far right and the Coalition also can’t be helping their vote in a diverse area like this. They might only be perceived links, but it’s only happening to one side of the contest and it won’t go un-noticed.

I’m sticking to my prediction of a Liberal hold.

1. As I’ve said before in this thread, the ‘on the ground work’ is not going to change enough votes. The name recognition benefit isn’t going to swing the seat with such a comfortable margin.

2. Laundy did not have THAT much of a person vote. IK it’s something the chattering political class love to discuss, but most analysts have struggled to find a link to candidates and votes.

3. Noting that all the state seats (Strathfield, Auburn, Drummoyne) swung to Labor by an average of around 3.5%, there’s still a shortfall of votes to compensate.

4. Back to NSW. I would like to see some state-by-state polling, but with numbers between 48-49 for the Libs, the statewide swing in NSW is going to be one of the smallest in the nation IMO. I find it difficult to see how Labor are going to be outperforming the statewide swing by the margin that they need here.

I think I had previously posted a prediction of 5% swing and Labor gain. I based this on the swings in state seats, plus the loss of incumbency – Wreathy, I reckon you’re right that Laundy wasn’t exactly a local hero MP, but his personal resources and his family’s network of pubs & real estate across the area helped him tremendously to get the name recognition factor.

The other factor is two conversations with Uber drivers who live in the area, over the last three or so weeks. Both were adamant that the seat was going to flip to Labor and both were well aware of Crosby.

And full disclosure: I placed a $100 bet on Labor at $4.50 odds on the day of the Turnbull spill last year, so there’s also an element of wishful thinking.

To winediamond and Wreathy of Sydney; kudos to you both for some great points. I am also in agreement with Alex and Trish.

To mick Quinlivan; ‘Hatred’ is too strong a word. More like frustration as I sense things. Howard, Wilson and Corrman, are not running for Reid. But like Crosby, they are all white men and political hacks. Which is why Dr Fiona Martin is such an appealing candidate. And Labor is not without faults, especially in light of climate change costings and modelling which shows a loss of 167,000 jobs by 2030. Some of Strathfield and all of Drummoyne take the largest chunk of Reid. And when you examine the booths up close, yes Drummoyne took a swing of 3.8 to Labor, but the swing has already happened. All the booths are a sea of blue at plus 60% to the Liberals. Labor talk racial diversity, but they don’t practice it in their top ranks and candidates. And Shorten is so unpopular at 10% behind Morrison as preferred leader with Labor only 3% ahead on 2PP. And I met Fiona. She is so lovely and really caring.

Mick
Yeah the view of Sam is interesting. Here’s the thing. The commenters are seeing a lot of things they feel, or see as him REPRESENTING. Are they seeing the man ??. They may well have grounds for concern with the issues raised. However placing the full weight of these on Sam, is disproportionate, & excessive. Clearly no- one other than yourself took much notice of my REID enneagram post. That is an immense credit to you mate.

When Sam gets a safer seat, then we will be able to judge whether he can make a positive difference. Until then all judgements are very premature.
As for all that palaver about minority, female representation, that is totally irrelevant. There are dozens of MP’S who are completely useless, & have zero potential for more. We could all name 50 + & none of us would defend them.

As for your’e hopes , or predictions of a more just, & fair Australia. Well as i said in my McMAHON POST That all depends on what the senate allows them to do. At this stage it’s looking like not much. I’m sure you won’t agree but i am absolutely certain of conclusive catastrophic outcomes of Labor policies. RAPID ones too.
Australian have become incredibly complacent about everything. There is little apprehension about dozens on issues that will hurt us, it is only a question of when. Our fair weather sailing will not continue forever, & sadly we have failed to prepare for the inevitable storm.

Of course the result is uncertain….
Fiona does not have horns and a pitch fork… neither does same…. the election is whether the ATM government is rewarded with another term and Fiona is a flag waver for them

W of S
Pretty much agree with everything Id qualify that Laundy’s personal vote is much stronger in the stronger labor areas, as i said in an earlier post. So i believe this seat will polarise quite spectacularly. Think Laundy’s PV will be demonstrated by swings of up to 10% in some booths. In contrast the lib booths could even shift further to the libs.

LT Smash
As above, it may be all a question of who you’re talking to, & from where !!
What “discussions” ? With Palmer ? So the QLDers are talking to PHON so what ?? . QLD is a different country.
Sorry about your Green I sincerely wish you had put it on Herbert
cheers wd

Re: my $100
The odds I got in August (4.50) have now come in to 1.22 vs the Coalition candidate on $3.50. This is a good bet, and also a better indicator of the likely result than the discussion on these threads – with all due respect to the regular contributors on here.
Herbert on the other hand is a genuine two-horse race (1.65 vs 2.10) so I’m not sure why I’d be better off betting on that, unless WD you are wanting to fatten up the winnings pool, or maybe you work for Sportsbet? :p

LT Smash
Lol !!. We will see very shortly. As i’ve said my betting is only to finance the champagne on election night. Happily my working days are behind me, leaving the opportunity to write my book ” Dear Son”. Writing here is a great deal of fun, however somewhat diverting
cheers WD

I have voted Labour in my entire life, but this time, I hesitate.

Why? Labour’s plan to abolish the Franking Credit System which shows Mr Shorten’s lack of economic knowledge, thus his incompetence of economic management. By the way, I own very few shares so it does not really affect me.

Voters vaguely say that Labour is not good at economic management. But why and how?

The plan to abolish of the Franking Credit System could be an example.

We know that the objective of the Franking Credit System is to eliminate double taxation of company profits, once at the corporate level and again on distribution as dividend to shareholders (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_dividend_imputation_system). In other words, to avoid DOUBLE taxation.

A simplified example:

In a company called “Labour Government”, Sam Crosby is the CEO receiving $90,000 remuneration per year while Fiona Martin is an employee receiving $37,00 a year. I, a retiree, invest all my life-savings in the company, and is the sole shareholder relying on dividend for my living.

At the end of the first financial year, Sam receives $69,203 and pays $20,797 tax (32.5% tax bracket), Fiona receives $33,428 and pays $3,572 tax (19% tax bracket), both through the PAYG Payment system.

The company’s net profits after all expenses (including Sam and Fiona’s remunerations) but before income tax is $18,200. As it is not much, the company decides to distribute all the profits to me as dividend. But the company needs to pay 30% corporate tax on the profits first.

So I receive $12,740 and pay $5,460 tax (through the 30% corporate tax) and also receive $5,460 franking credits. As my total income before tax of $18,200 does not exceed the Tax-Free threshold. I do not need to pay tax. So I claim back the over-paid tax (franking credits) of $5,460 paid by the company on my behalf (similar to Tax Return).

This is how the Franking Credit System works and it is FAIR to everyone under the current taxation systems.

If the Franking Credit System is abolished and I cannot claim the $5,460 franking credits, then the effective tax rates for Sam, Fiona and me will be:

Sam pays $20,797 on his $90,000 income, effective tax rate (averaged out) of 23.11%. Fiona pays $3,572 on her $37,000 income, effective tax rate of 9.65%, but I pay $5,460 on my $18,200 income, effective tax rate of 30%. Shocking?

The shocking part is actually Mr Shorten who has a law degree from Monash University, although he has devoted his whole life to Union rather than economic management. Does he know the objective of and how the Franking Credit System works but plays dumb on voters on purpose? Or he actually does not know?

But the most shocking part is within the Labour Party, there are competent people like Sam Crosby who has a First Class Honours Degree in Economics from the University of Sydney and a MBA from UNSW, or the Australian Graduate School of Management, the Australian version of “Harvard MBA”, but DARE NOT to tell Mr Shorten about his shortcomings.

This is why I hesitate to vote for Labour this time.

They aren’t abolishing franking credits Louis, you can still use them to reduce your income tax. They are only saying you can’t claim them when you don’t pay income tax, which is necessary as the current arrangement is unsustainable.

You’re right the point of dividend imputation is to remove double taxation, however when you allow people who don’t pay income tax to still get a tax refund there is 0 taxation, as the government is refunding the company tax that was charged on the dividend paid to the shareholder. It’s unsustainable and an abuse of the point of dividend imputation to allow people to essentially pay negative income tax.

Louis Luo
I,ve posted a lot on this issue. You are absolutely correct. Obviously i failed to enlighten Boaty 2 days ago with a lengthy detailed post on the Robertson THREAD. Perhaps you may find my thoughts there interesting
cheers WD

Libs are bringing in the heavy artillery like Kelly O’Dwyer and Gladys Berejiklian into prepoll meaning that they think might be tighter than a few weeks ago. I still think Fiona will win though, but only just.

Galaxy poll for Reid has LIB 52 (-2.7) and ALP 48.

Lib hold. Demographics too hard for Sam. A shame b/c he’s a quality guy – if you look at some of the MPs in western Sydney (Owens/Hayes) they should be moved on. He deserves a spot in parliament.

These seat polls are ruining my Thursday afternoon.

Take seat polls with a grain of salt Paul, they are often wrong. Most of them were pretty wrong last election

For example, I’d be surprised if UAP polls 6% in this seat.

Moderate
Don’t pick on Julie Owens. jULIE is all class, & quality. If she were leading Labor they would win this by 30 seats. If you want to pick on useless Labor MPs, there are plenty of others like (Stanley, Swanston, Kelly,Elliot, & Conroy).

This is a seat that I thought would go to Labor, but I have now changed my mind and have put money on a Liberal hold. After all if the Libs are doing well enough to get a swing to win Lindsay then with the margin in Reid this has to be a seat where the Libs are favourites now.

I told you so.

Dr Fiona Martin is the well-deserved member of Reid with close to 10,000 more votes on primaries than Crosby. 10,000 more votes!!!! Thanks to Labor’s poor candidate and policies on negative gearing and franking credits and their inability to empathize. Labor fanaticism? No thank you.

The reason why Sam Crosby lost in Reid was because he another terrible candidate that Labor dishes out. Another demographically white Australian candidate from a party who claims it supports multiculturalism. Jobs for mates and family members. He’ll survive, at least his wife Rose is in parliament. Give me a break.

Dr Martin is a mum who has a real job, own small businesses and has life experience and character. She’s not a careerist politician or cardboard cut-out narcissist. Not someone the hollow men and women of the Labor party forced onto the punter. She also has an ethnic heritage. She ticks all the boxes for a diverse seat like Reid.

I am a swing voter but I was mightily unimpressed on election day by the hard-edged union volunteers who tried to force their how to votes into my face. I won’t be bullied into voting for someone. I voted for Fiona. I was undecided three weeks ago but not last weekend. Great work Fiona.

Trish Brown
Who was arguing !!??. Sam was the labor horse. THE LEAD in his saddlebags were BS none side, & $400 billion of taxes o the other !!. Is it any wonder he went down !!??

how ever you carve it up Fiona despite any personal qualities is the representative of a bad government
what will she do about the progressive dismantling of Centrelink?

Crosby blew this massively and if they run him again, they’ll lose.
He had every advantage: campaigned for a solid year, incumbent quitting, mass amount of resources from Sussex Street (unions, letterbox dropping, and posters plastered all over the electorate).

A word to Sam and Labor: your family album pamphlet that I received three times displayed an elite, spoiled and entitled brat who has been given everything his whole life.

Sam’s wife Rose Jackson, a member of the NSW Upper House, was handing out at Concord Public School and probably turned more voters off with her obnoxious approach.

The rumour is she will now put her hand up for next preselection.

Labor please do not ever nominate Sam again for Reid. He was an utterly useless candidate