ALP 5.9%
Incumbent MP
Rob Mitchell, since 2010.
Geography
Northern Victoria. McEwen covers the northern fringe of Melbourne and rural areas further north, including Gisborne, Romsey, Macedon, Whittlesea, Strathewen, Sunbury, Kilmore and Wallan.
Redistribution
McEwen lost northern parts of Mitchell Shire to Nicholls, including Puckapunyal, Seymour, Tallarook and Broadford, and also lost Mickleham and Oaklands Junction to Calwell and South Morang to Scullin. McEwen gained Macedon from Bendigo and Yarrambat and Hurstbridge from Scullin. These changes reduced the Labor margin from 7.9% to 5.9%.
History
McEwen was created when the Parliament was expanded in 1984, and was first won by Peter Cleeland of the ALP. The seat has traditionally been considered a marginal seat, although the Liberal Party held it continuously from 1996 until 2010.
Cleeland held on in 1987 before losing to Fran Bailey in 1990. Cleeland returned in 1993 before Bailey defeated him again in 1996. Bailey held on at every election from 1996 to 2010, but never with a great margin. She held on with a 2.2% margin in 1996, 1.0% in 1998 and 1.2% in 2001. She gained a 6.4% margin in 2004, but that melted away in 2007, when her margin was wiped out and the seat became the most marginal seat in the country.
Bailey led for most of the count after the 2007 election but her Labor opponent, Rob Mitchell, was declared the winner by six votes. A full recount gave Bailey a margin of twelve votes. This result was challenged in court and after seven months Bailey was declared the victor with a margin of twenty-seven votes.
In 2010, Bailey retired and Mitchell was comfortably elected.
Mitchell was re-elected narrowly in 2013, and again more comfortably in 2016.
Candidates
- Neil Barker (Greens)
- Ruth Parramore (Animal Justice)
- Rob Mitchell (Labor)
- Phillip Fusco (Liberal)
- Deb Butler (Derryn Hinch’s Justice)
- Robert James Hyndman (Independent)
- Ronnie Graham (One Nation)
- Chris Hayman (United Australia)
Assessment
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2016 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Rob Mitchell | Labor | 50,588 | 44.7 | +7.1 | 42.1 |
| Chris Jermyn | Liberal | 38,151 | 33.7 | -6.6 | 35.9 |
| Neil Barker | Greens | 8,583 | 7.6 | +0.5 | 8.6 |
| Dorothy Lorraine Long | Family First | 3,707 | 3.3 | +0.4 | 3.0 |
| Cathy Vaina | Animal Justice | 3,005 | 2.7 | +2.7 | 2.8 |
| Ross Lee | Independent | 3,013 | 2.7 | +2.7 | 2.4 |
| James Anderson | Nationals | 2,672 | 2.4 | +2.4 | 2.0 |
| Jeff Truscott | Rise Up Australia | 1,867 | 1.6 | +1.2 | 1.6 |
| Tracey Andrew | Australian Country Party | 1,614 | 1.4 | +0.8 | 1.3 |
| Others | 0.2 | ||||
| Informal | 7,189 | 6.0 |
2016 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Rob Mitchell | Labor | 65,482 | 57.8 | +7.7 | 55.9 |
| Chris Jermyn | Liberal | 47,718 | 42.2 | -7.7 | 44.1 |
Booth breakdown
Polling places in McEwen have been divided into four areas. Polling places in the Macedon Ranges council area have been grouped as “West”, those in the Mitchell council area have been grouped as “North-East”, those in the Nillumbik and Whittlesea council areas have been grouped as “South-East”, and those in the Hume council area have been grouped as “Sunbury”.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all four areas, ranging from a virtual tie in the west to 59.1% in the north-east.
| Voter group | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South-East | 56.2 | 16,421 | 19.6 |
| West | 50.0 | 12,217 | 14.5 |
| Sunbury | 59.0 | 11,155 | 13.3 |
| North-East | 59.1 | 9,286 | 11.1 |
| Other votes | 55.8 | 14,196 | 16.9 |
| Pre-poll | 56.2 | 20,711 | 24.7 |
Two-party-preferred votes in McEwen at the 2016 federal election
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Despite the significant decrease in margin, Rob Mitchell should retain this with no difficulty at all.
Liberals can’t afford to campaign here, so even though the redistribution has shrunk the margin this seat is safe as houses.
One for the 2022 watchlist, when Liberals will actually try to take seats off Labor. Rob Mitchell got very lucky twice; 2013’s razor thin margin, and 2016’s scandalised Liberal candidate. It really depends on redistributions though.
with Sunbury in the seat probably remains a reliable alp seat
This is always a seat that attracts a lot of interest at redistributions. The geography of Victoria means that McEwen tends to bear the brunt of changes in other parts of the state, and even a small change in boundaries can cause a large change in the margin. For this reason, I don’t think it’s possible to make predictions beyond 2019, as any redistribution before 2022 will cause more potentially significant changes here.
IIRC the Liberal candidate was a dud last time, hence the big swing, and a few of those Labor margins look a bit inflated. Labor should win even with a better Lib candidate, but it would have been a Liberal seat on these boundaries in 2013.
MQ
Sunbury swung 15 %+ in 2016
Mark M
2013 with Donna Petrovitch. McEwen seems to have lost a lot of solid ALP fringe Northern suburbs. Is it possible that this has produced more volatility too ? i agree with your comments. However i am certain this will go to the coalition in 2022
I believe that Rob Mitchell will increase his margin despite there being a redistribution. His seat was marginal with ALP friendly Melbourne Suburbs and Liberal friendly Country areas. However I believe that Rob Mitchell dosent have to be concerned. The state seats within the election are Yan Yean (all of Yan Yean is in McEwen except for around Diamond Creek) (Margin 17%), Macedon within parts of Gsborne Romsey which are typically more Labor friendly compared to the Kyneton Part of the electorate).(Margin 13%). And Sunbury (Pretty much all of this electorate is in McEwen except for Diggers Rest & Tullamarine) (Margin 14%). Libeals have no chance.
Liberal candidate here is Philip Fusco. Thomas is right, Mitchell will have a huge swing to him this time.
I cannot find any information on the Independent candidate James Robert Hyndman. He does not even appear to have a website or Facebook page. Anyone now where to get information on him
2021/2 Lib preselections for Dunkley,Jagajaga & McEwen about to close. Fusco likely to run again in McEwen; good move if he is well known.