Mayo – Australia 2019

Was bummed Georgina Downer didn’t win (very much a dry Liberal myself) – hope she gets to run in something else in the future (maybe Sturt when Pyne retires, or even the SA state parliament)

Anyway, Sharkie should hold, and most likely continue to do so until she retires or does something stupid.

Downer underpolling Briggs saya it all, especially considering the resources the Liberals put into the byelection. I doubt that the entire cabinet and busloads of interstate young liberals will spend their effort here when there’s 150 other seats.

Greens outpolled Labor and I don’t expect that to change.

Not even sure this one will even go to preferences in the General election.

@John – not at all. She did about as you’d expect in a by-election with a popular independent MP. Antony Green himself actually got very irritated with angry leftists trying to assert that she was somehow a drag on the Liberals – she wasn’t. Bottom line is she was never going to win anyway.

Those booths formerly in Kingston, which voted strongly for Amanda Rishworth, should also go for Sharkie now.

Wreathy, if she was always doomed, that’s not consistent with the very large amount of resources the Liberals put into the seat. Mayo was not in the same category as Perth and Fremantle.

Sharkie was actually getting $6 odds for the first few weeks, and commentators thought Downer and her family name were the favourites. Things changed a bit after the 2 polls that had her losing by a huge margin (especially the betting odds), but enough commentators were still suggesting that because of Xenophon’s fall, and because Briggs was out of the picture, that the Liberals could win.

It was only about a week out from the vote that Downer talked down her own chances.

@John everything you’ve just listed is not inconsistent with what I said. I agree, the commentators and the Libs poured resources and were talking the big game early on. However, I think for those with a bit more insight, it was fairly clear that Sharkie was going to win – that’s all seperate from whether the result achieved was actually ‘good’.

I think there’s a fair argument that Downer was not a good choice of candidate, at least not in Mayo. Parachuting in a candidate because she was related to a former member probably fed into the sentiment that she was “snobby” and “entitled” (which were the words used to describe her by undecided voters during focus group tests). But it wasn’t just that – Downer didn’t actually give people much of a reason to vote for her, whereas Sharkie made a lot more effort to engage with the community and talk about issues they cared about (i.e. actually being a good representative).

Major parties tend to have this arrogant attitude that independent-held seats are “rightfully theirs” and continue to run uninspiring or unpopular party insiders as candidates (Indi is probably the worst example). Votes for independents/minor parties are not necessarily protest votes, in some cases they’re simply votes for the better representative.

Selecting Downer showed very poor judgement on the part of the Liberals as a whole, thinking people would just vote for a name.

I don’t think the second point just applies to independents. Running Brett Whiteley in Braddon again was another huge mistake as he was turfed out personally in 2016. Same goes for Trevor Ruthenberg who suffered an enormous swing in the 2015 state election and couldn’t shake off Newman’s shadow (as well as the medal scandal).

Either their talent pool isn’t particularly deep, or the internal power that gets MPs to their positions doesn’t go away when the electorate sours on them.

You cannot make judgements about the quality of candidates based solely on one set of election results. Brett Whiteley was not a superstar when he won Braddon and he was not a dud when he lost Braddon. Nor was Trevor Ruthenberg either of those things when he won and then lost Kallangur. Both were hostage to their parties’ larger fortunes.

Same goes for Georgina Downer.

That the Liberals lost ground in all three by-elections does not imply all three candidates were unusually awful. It suggests there were larger forces at work.

That’s a good point John. Bret Whiteley has been voted out of state AND federal politics, and apparently now he’s going to run for a senate seat. At this point they’re just stubbornly ignoring the will of voters.

Downer might be a reasonable candidate in some other electorates (I can see why she sought preselection in Goldstein) but I don’t think she’s suited to Mayo. Parties need to make more of an effort to select candidates who are actually representative of the electorate they’re running in.

Look mayo foreigners…Listen up to a local in Mayo…
We had a choice between 1) a well known woman who has lived in Mayo for 20 years and who has for the past 2 years strongly represented our electorate in Canberra. 2) A woman who was NOT well known and who has lived elsewhere for the past 20 years.
Ummm ..Dead easy choice – the first, Rebekha Sharkie

Who comes up with these electorate names? Mayonaise?

Who comes up with these electorate names? Mayonnaise?

@Daniel –
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helen_Mayo

I would not be surprised if Mayo goes right down to the line on election night.
– Centre Alliance won’t be able to throw every resource at this seat like they did at the by election.
– If they do, it will be at the expense of Barker or Grey where they came second last time.
– less name recognition.
– Agree that Rebekah Sharkie will have the incumbent advantage.
– The ALP can’t run dead in a general election like they did in the by election – they have to get those senate votes in.
– Georgina Downer has had more time to build up name recognition.
– Her vote at the by election held up – the liberal core held up.

It could be very close

Downer cant win ok? Dont be biased to the liberals like the media is, you know how corrupt the party is, based off the by election she should win easily with a small swing against her , 55-45 in her favor predicted like 2016

Centre Alliance won’t be able to throw quite as many resources at this seat compared to the by-election, but surely their main competition, the Liberals, will be far more disadvantaged on that front?

As for Labor not running as dead – as long as their HTV has Sharkie over Downer and Labor voters follow it, this surely won’t be much of an issue.

Downer caught out in a photo pretending to deliver a community grant for a club.
a fake cheque with her name on it ,implying she arranged for the grant…oh dear

Sharkie should be a certainty of winning this seat now

While some candidates in the past have tried to get elected after one or more failed attempts it is clear that Georgina Downer has not been wanted twice as a potential MHR for Mayo and before that by Liberal preselectors in Goldstein shortly before. Time to get a real job Ms Downer instead of being on party committees and a guest on talk back radio.

The Downer name is tainted as her father was an Iraq War (2003 onwards) warmonger.

@Adrian Jackson and tainted by his role in the attempted coup against Trump.