La Trobe – Australia 2019

LIB 3.2%

Incumbent MP
Jason Wood, since 2013. Previously 2004-2010.

Geography
La Trobe covers the south eastern fringe of Melbourne and parts of the Dandenong Ranges. Major centres include Berwick, Narre Warren and Pakenham. It covers parts of Cardinia and Casey local government areas.

Redistribution
La Trobe shifted east, losing Ferntree Gully to Aston and also losing Belgrave, Mount Dandenong and Macclesfield to Casey. La Trobe then gained Pakenham and Nar Nar Goon from McMillan. These changes increased the Liberal margin from 1.5% to 3.2%.

History
La Trobe was first created after the Second World War when the House of Representatives was expanded at the 1949 election. The seat was first won by Richard Casey, who had previously been an MP and minister before resigning from Parliament in 1940 to serve in a variety of diplomatic roles during the war.

Casey served as a minister for eleven years before resigning in 1960. John Jess won the seat for the Liberal Party in a by-election that year and held the seat until his defeat in 1972, when Whitlam’s national victory swept Tony Lamb into La Trobe. He lost the seat in 1975 and later returned to Parliament serving in the seat of Streeton from 1984 to 1990.

Marshall Baillieu won the seat for the Liberals in 1975 and held it until 1980. That year he was defeated by Peter Milton who held it until 1990 for the ALP. Bob Charles defeated Milton in 1990 and held the seat until 2004, during which he served on the shadow ministry from 1994 to 1996.

Charles retired in 2004 and he was succeeded by Jason Wood. Wood’s 5.8% margin in 2004 was cut to 0.5% in 2007, but he held on in the face of the election of the Rudd government. In 2010, Wood was defeated by Labor candidate Laura Smyth. La Trobe was one of only two seats that the ALP gained off the Coalition in an election where Labor lost ground and lost its parliamentary majority.

Jason Wood won back La Trobe in 2013, thanks to a 5.7% swing, and was re-elected in 2016.

Candidates

Assessment
La Trobe is a marginal seat and could well fall if Labor has a good result.

2016 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Jason Wood Liberal 39,108 42.2 -3.8 44.1
Simon Curtis Labor 29,052 31.4 -0.7 32.1
Tom Cummings Greens 9,773 10.6 +0.5 8.3
Julieanne Lynette Doidge Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party 3,922 4.2 +4.2 2.9
Leah Folloni Animal Justice 2,677 2.9 +2.9 3.2
Jeffrey Bartram Family First 2,273 2.5 +0.6 2.9
Martin Leahy Sex Party 2,103 2.3 -0.5 1.4
David Fent Shooters, Fishers & Farmers 1,321 1.4 +1.4 1.0
Leslie Hughes Liberal Democrats 1,188 1.3 +1.3 1.6
Margaret Quinn Rise Up Australia 1,180 1.3 +0.5 2.0
Others 0.6
Informal 5,454 5.6

2016 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Jason Wood Liberal 47,649 51.5 -2.6 53.2
Simon Curtis Labor 44,948 48.5 +2.6 46.8

Booth breakdown

Polling places in La Trobe have been divided into three areas: north-east, south-east and south-west. The south-west covers those polling places in the Casey council area. The south-east includes the major centre of Pakenham.

The Liberal Party won a slim 50.6% majority in the south-west and a larger 55.7% majority in the north-east. Labor won 52.9% in the south-east.

Voter group LIB 2PP % Total votes % of votes
South-West 50.6 22,160 27.0
South-East 47.1 13,286 16.2
North-East 55.7 7,664 9.3
Other votes 55.2 16,436 20.0
Pre-poll 57.1 22,558 27.5

Two-party-preferred votes in La Trobe at the 2016 federal election

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41 COMMENTS

  1. The CFA dispute would have hurt them here last time. An issue like that could flare up again, but if Labor isn’t doing well in mortgage belt then they aren’t doing well anywhere.

    The Greens should also do better; they have broken through in Cardinia council and would have a certain appeal in the Dandenong ranges (Ben could you add a Green vote overlay?).

    ALP Gain with any decent effort.

  2. Labor’s strength in Pakenham is surprising, especially since it was locked in the safe Liberal seat of McMillan.

    One to watch. I tend to think this is more winnable than Chisholm.

  3. local MP Jason wood is very popular, growth in Pakenham will have changed the electoral profile of the seat somewhat since 2016, if the ALP are polling 55% in vic at election time then this seat could be in play. Bit early to make a call.

  4. I live in this electorate and I must admit Jason Wood is despised, Last time around Labor actually had a swing here larger then the overall statewide swing in the face of the CFA issue which probably had its most fertile ground in La Trobe.
    This is probably one of the main targets for Labor after Dunkley and Corangamite.

  5. @Sandbelter Jason Wood isn’t particularly well liked or respected, even by alot of Libs in the electorate. He isn’t active in the community all that much, never really shows his face unless he’s on sky news, granted all he speaks about is anti african dog whistling.

  6. I may be ignorant but I thought Pakenham was well and truly an outer suburb of Melbourne and not at all like a Gippsland town.

    That doesn’t strike me as 50/50 territory. Labor will certainly try harder here than in the old McMillan

  7. Pakenham probably would’ve been considered a Gippsland town 15 years ago much like Berwick 30 years ago. That being said nowadays its much more mortgage belt with a high swing tendacy, on the other hand Berwick and Beaconsfield have remained fairly Liberal, although those areas did swing about 7% to Labor at the last election.

  8. L96 Wood may be a virus , but to what do you attribute his immunity, if not longevity !?. He has been around for 15 years.

    David Walsh
    i agree that La Trobe seems, appears far more vulnerable than Chisholm

  9. Wood isn’t well regarded or well liked. His still failed to garnish a personal vote. Berwick/Beaconsfield are strong Libs area, while Pakenham tends to be more Labor. Simon’s been more active than his counterpart, who’s the incumbent MP! The boundary changes only hurts Labor in the 2PP as Greens primary vote has suffered with the strongest areas including 2 booths which Greens won on primary have left to Casey. Also, worth noting Labor have a campaign office in Pakenham and I’d be leaning towards La Trobe being a Labor gain. I was on the booth in 2016 and CFA issue was big. Wood is latching onto the state Gov’t again. But voters want to talk about federal issues, their is a tag on Wood that his just there protecting the banks and big end of town that his struggled to shake off.

  10. John

    “The Greens should also do better; they have broken through in Cardinia council and would have a certain appeal in the Dandenong ranges (Ben could you add a Green vote overlay?).”

    3PP they got 15.56%. High “other” vote here including Animal Justice and Sex party.

  11. Wood doesn’t really have a personal vote; I would say in combination with the CFA issue, the Liberal vote is otherwise “natural”. It’s probably a bit of a bellwether seat still; Labor will win it if they win government. However strong demographic change will inevbiatbly favour Labor.

  12. I recently heard that Wood is one of Victorian protagonists pushing for Dutton, in my opinion that would be a nail in his coffin. Dutton isn’t liked all that much in Victoria and Morrison isn’t liked that much either but not to the same level as the aforementioned Dutton.

    The one thing that favours Labor here is Pakenham and since it was previously in McMillan where Labor didn’t do a lot of targeted on the ground campaigning means that the Labor vote there is probably softer than if they had put more effort in there last time.

    My guess would be 53-47 Labor

  15. Doesn’t matter if Gembrook didn’t fall Labor, Doesn’t change the fact Wood will lose, There was Massive swings to Labor in the Warren electorates

  17. Gembrook had a massive swing of 8% to Labor. If anything close to that is replicated in La Trobe Labor wins this easily. The parts of La Trobe that lie in the Narre Warren seats or Cranbourne seats already vote Labor.

  18. Gembrook 2018 Results
    GRN ALP LIB ALP 2PP
    Avebury +1.2% +14.6% -12.1% 53.7%
    Beaconsfield +1.4% +10.2% -6.0% 43.5%
    Beaconsfield Upper +2.5% +7.4% -6.7% 37.7%
    Berwick +2.1% +10.4% -9.5% 43.4%
    Berwick Lodge +4.5% +11.2% -7.1% 55.3%
    Cockatoo +3.2% +8.6% -2.6% 58.3%
    Emerald +1.6% +12.6% -8.7% 57.7%
    Gembrook +0.1% +13.4% -6.2% 55.5%
    Harkaway +1.0% +8.6% -5.8% 37.7%
    Officer +1.8% +18.2% -14.2% 53.7%
    Officer East +5.6% +18.0% -17.9% 56.6%
    Pakenham Hills +5.6% +6.9% -3.6% 57.3%
    Pakenham Upper -4.1% +15.4% -5.4% 42.7%
    Timbarra +2.9% +7.7% -4.9% 45.8%
    Toomuc Valley -3.7% +10.5% -2.6% 36.6%

    Postal +1.2% +7.7% -3.2% 39.2%
    Early +2.4% +11.9% -9.4% 47.9%
    Provisional +9.5% +10.5% -8.4% 61.7%
    Absent +4.0% +12.3% -5.1% 58.6%

    In Gembrook, Amy Gregorovich (Greens) & Michael Galea (ALP), both first time candidates performed strongly against a popular incumbent MP, Brad Battin (Liberal). Labor’s primary vote of 41.1% & 2PP of 49.1% is very encouraging for the party. Alongside an increased Greens primary vote, Jason Wood will struggle in a 2PP contest with Labor.

    Narre Warren North (La Trobe) 2018 Results
    GRN ALP LIB ALP 2PP
    Avebury +3.5% +4.4% -8.9% 60.8%
    Berwick Lodge +4.7% +6.7% -7.9% 65.2%
    Fountain Gate +1.7% +0.9% -3.8% 64.6%
    Harkaway +1.2% -1.2% +1% 41.0%
    Narre Warren +1.5% +7.9% -7.6% 64.6%
    Narre Warren North -0.5% +7.6% -6.2% 39.9%
    Timbarra +0.8% +7.7% -5.6% 58.3%

    Postal +1.5% +1.4% -2.2% 51.4%
    Early +0.1% +2.8% -3.3% 57.8%
    Provisional +2.3% -3.7% -2.0% 59.5%
    Absent +2.2% +4.6% -9.3% 66.1%

    Encouraging signs for Labor & Greens, Jason Wood will struggle in Narre Warren and Berwick on these numbers.

    Bass 2PP Labor Lib
    Lakeside East +7.5% -7.5%
    Pakenham +13% -13%
    Pakenham Central +5.8% -5.8%
    Pakenham Lakeside +9.2 -9.2%
    Pakenham Springs +10.7 -10.7%

    Very tough result for Greens with negative swings, great news for Labor and bad news for Liberals in Pakenham. Jason Wood will need to work on Pakenham.

    Narracan 2018 Result Labor 2PP
    Nar Nar Goon +7.5%
    Nar Nar Goon North + 16.1%

    Encouraging news for Labor.

    I’m predicting Labor to win 56-44 in La Trobe.

  22. Who is the candidate from the Greens and other minor parties and independents? Need to catch up on that so I can decide upon who to vote for!

  25. Labor should win here without any doubt. The feeling against Wood locally is quite strong especially surrounding his support for Dutton and the removal of Turnbull.
    A mixture of the redistribution adding Pakenham, which had a softer Labor vote from being in McMillan and lacking targeted campaigning will swing a fair bit to Labor this time. The absence of the CFA issue which should see Emerald, Cockatoo and Gembrook swing to Labor rather heavily.

    My prediction 55-45 to Labor

  26. This area seems to be trending Labor big time. Simon Curtis will win easily and Labor should retain the seat on these boundaries in all but Liberal landslide elections moving forward.

  27. The above prediction and big trend comment don’t quite seem to be there…..

    Galaxy just out has this at Lib 50 ALP 50 , so a 3.2 swing to ALP.

  28. ALERT ON GALAXY POLL FOR LA TROBE
    Galaxy poll for La Trobe is a tad confusing.
    At the 2016 election the primary votes for the Lib amounted to 42.2 per cent.
    In today’s poll, Galaxy reports a 1.1 per cent primary swing away from the Liberal candidate leaving him with a primary vote of 43 per cent.
    That makes no sense.

  29. ALERT No. 2 on Galaxy poll for La Trobe.

    The Australian reports that the primary swing to the Labor candidate in La Trobe is 6.9 per cent.
    It reports that this leaves the candidate with 39 per cent of the primary.
    A little problem with that finding because the Labor primary in 2016 was 31.4 per cent.
    When I add 6.9 per cent to that I get 38.3 per cent.
    So, my conclusion is that this poll is flawed and wrong-headed

  30. ALERT No.1 on Galaxy poll for La Trobe

    The Liberal candidate fetched 42.2 per cent of the primary vote at the 2016 election.
    The Galaxy poll published on 16 May reports 1.1 per cent swing on the primary vote agains the Liberal candidate.
    It then reports a 43 per cent primary for the Liberal candidate in the poll it has conducted this week.
    This makes no sense.
    If Galaxy found a 1.1 per cent swing against the Liberal candidate this should have led to the primary vote being reported as 41.1 per cent.
    Conclusion: Flawed poll

  31. You have to take into account the redistribution. Adjusted for the redistribution the Liberal vote in 2016 was 44.1% and the Labor vote was 32.1%.

  32. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Jason Wood win here – remember that he held on in 2007 against the odds, bizarrely lost in 2010 (when there was a swing to the LNP elsewhere), and then returned in 2013. Gang violence is an issue in this seat too, which Wood is strong on.

  33. @NC

    There’s nothing wrong with the figures. See the margin AFTER the redistribution. (32.1 + 6.9 = 39).

    I get why some people would be upset at what some of these polls are finding, but let’s keep our criticism justified.

  34. Thank you to Ben, The Sheriff and Wreathy for bringing me up to speed on the Galaxy poll for LaTrobe. I would like to extend an apology to the counters at Galaxy while I’m here.

  37. Pakenham was previously in Monash…. which was protected from swinging as much as expected due to
    Russell Broadbents personal vote. This makes up 20% of the seat by my sums.
    likely alp win

  38. Mick

    Are you predicting a Labor win in Monash or La Trobe? Not clear.

    Can’t see Libs losing Monash. La Trobe yes.

  40. A similar pattern to Casey, it seems: swings to Labor in the mountains, but mostly swings to the Liberals in the suburban areas.

    Pakenham and some of the newer areas around Berwick in particular seemed to come through for the Liberals.

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