Hasluck – Australia 2019

Wyatt will almost certainly loose, though from all the sources in Hasluck he is very popular, the issue with many Lib members in WA is the fact that the WA liberals are so unpopular which means their MP’s despite being popular will struggle.

Likely Labor gain, hard to see Libs holding this, there is just not enough a margin. They probably only held it last election due to the popularity of Ken Wyatt.

Swings against Libs in the hills at last state election were not as large as then northern and southern suburbs. If Labor makes a significant mistake there might be a chance of the Libs holding on but I doubt that will happen.

Midland and Kenwick should get Labor over the line, even if Kalamunda stays blue.

Ken Wyatt’s about the last likeable WA Lib left, but I think this one is one the Libs will be ignoring if the swing is on. It’s not part of the furniture, and they’d look to it being a seat to recover at future elections. Wouldn’t surprise me if Wyatt stood again in the future even if he loses this time.

Huge: Darling Range had a swing of 19% at the last state election and Swan Hills 18%, and Kalamunda and Forresfield each 12% – I think this suggests that the area Hasluck covers swung as much as any of the outer metro electorates did.

Huge
i think you are right on the money here. It is a pity for Wyatt, as he has done little wrong. Does anyone know anything about Lauren Palmer ?

I’ll tell you this, Wyatt’s heart isn’t in it. I’ve heard he’s only running as a favor to Turnbull. He isn’t rocking up to any community events like the Kalamunda night markets and Labor is rocking up to everyone of them.

It will be close, personally I feel the ALP will claim this seat next election.

Lauren Palmer has resigned as the ALP candidate, citing the stress of running in a marginal seat as well as opinion polls showing the ALP is trailing the Liberals on the 2PP. https://www.watoday.com.au/politics/western-australia/labor-s-hasluck-campaign-in-disarray-after-candidate-quits-20180716-p4zrud.html

The narrative has been that Labor is going to get a big swing in WA, so hearing that their own polling has them falling further behind would be pretty extraordinary.

A 2% swing in local polling is so small it might as well be noise.

If Palmer really quit because of polls she’s worse with numbers than Dutton’s goon Hastie.

Good for James Martin though. As said above it’s sad that Wyatt really is the only likeable WA Lib. He’s all but gone here.

I think it will be Hasluck, Swan, Stirling and Moore will go to Labor. Pearce will be close as will Canning

If Wyatt really only was recontesting as a favour to Turnbull as Kalamunda voter said, perhaps he will be the next to announce his retirement.

James – why would Stirling and Moore fall but not Pearce? Moore’s margin especially is enormous (>10%) compared to Pearce (3.6%) – if Moore did actually fall (which I doubt would happen, particularly when WA Labor’s honeymoon is largely over), I see no reason for Pearce not to fall as well. This is even if you take into account Goodenough’s small profile.

Moore doesnt even fall on WA State 2017 numbers – and Forrest (!) does. Pearce isn’t even close on those numbers.

There will be a bandwagon effect, and strong local campaigns and appeals to moderate Liberals should be able to get Keenan and Hastie over their role in the coup. That’s an extremely good result for Labor in WA. Moore, Tangney and the 3 rural seats are way too hard for Labor, and Curtin is strictly off limits for any political party other than the Liberals (maybe an independent could make waves, but unlikely).

I would say Moore, Canning, Curtin, Durack and O’Connor and expected Lib seats…..Forrest is also probable as lib win…… the state figures included excellent votes in Bunbury and Collie- Preston based on personal votes for Alp candidates. All else will be labor or up for a possible change.

I seriously doubt Moore will fall, most the people I know in that electorate are socially conservative and whilst theres a huge distaste to the Liberals there is even greater resentment to Labor.

Moore, Curtin, Tangney, Forrest and O’Conner are safe Liberal seats for the foreseeable future. Whilst Labors honeymoon is over I would expect a much larger swing in WA compared to the national average, which would put Hasluck and Swan in Labors column and put Stirling and Pearce up for grabs.

I think that Moore will fall due to the nature of the member with a low profile and really conservative. I think the margin is inflated as Labor has not seen this seat as a possibility.

In the WA state election, seats like Kalamunda, Murray-Wellington, Bicton and Darling Range (even though it went back to the Liberals at the by-election) would never be in Labor hands but they all fell.

If you look at trends there are always seats like Moore that fall, yet seats that should fall don’t when there is a swing. East Hills in NSW for instance in the last NSW State Election.

Also the Julie Bishop factor will be nil – there is no way she will support anyone anymore and won’t have her fundraising and the cash that comes from this.

Anyhow just my thoughts

James

I expect Wyatt to have a smaller swing than Porter, Keenan and Hastie.

A point I hadn’t considered that was raised in the discussion for Banks – now that marriage equality is settled, Labor can how its pitch to bring back socially conservative voters without risking too much in inner city seats, especially with Greens picking up the slack. That will really help in a lot of marginals.

In an ordinary 2019 election (pre-spill), which would have been well after the dust settled in WA Lab’s state win, you’d have to consider Perth and Cowan in play for Libs.

As it is now presently, Swan and Hasluck are all but certainties to flip Labor, and Pearce too with the momentum of factors so they should be the main priorities then you have Stirling and Canning that could all be in Labor’s grasp if the sandbags fail. If they do indeed both fall then the swing is well and truly on around the country so result won’t mean much overall because Labor will have reached 76 by time polls close in WA.

Curtin, Moore, Tangney, Forrest and Durack are all safe seats for Liberals and only O’Connor a chance to flip but to Nationals.

Talk of Moore falling is fanciful given that area is the Bible Belt of Perth. Those people would vote for Satan as long as he was wearing blue. Probably have given the insults hurled around factional opponents during preselection.

In terms of the present seats in WA I think Liberals will always hold Curtin, Tangney, Forrest, Durack and O’Connor (which could go to the Nationals)

Labor will always hold Fremantle, Perth, Burt and Brand. Perth & Fremantle will always be Labor whatever the Greens say – when the Greens held Fremantle State it was enough for Freo people to say never again to the Greens.

So that leaves the seats of:

Pearce (this could become a bellweather seat – it has a similar feel of Eden-Monaro NSW – strong mortgage belt with regional / farming),
Canning (more Liberal but Mandurah is a strong Labor area),
Cowan (more Labor)
Hasluck
Moore (more Liberal)
Stirling (more Liberal)
Swan (more Liberal)
as marginals.

James, why did you say NSW? NSW isn’t a seat

Less certain about Hasluck as I was a few months before. The long wait til election may save Wyatt, who’s got a decent amount of ground support and wasn’t tarred by the Libspill. It’ll only be the general swing across the board that Labor will get that puts him in danger.

In terms of most like to fall in WA: Swan, Pearce, Stirling, Hasluck, Canning

JohnC

While Ken Wyatt may or may not be a decent MP, I don’t think he has a strong enough local profile to significantly negate any nationwide swing. I think Hasluck is still the most likely to fall in WA, and certainly a greater chance than Stirling.

If Wyatt does fall, I wouldn’t rule out him running for a WA state seat, perhaps say Kalamunda, at the 2021 state election.

Kalamunda is unlikely to fall on it’s margin unless McGowan does something bad. Although i don’t see him running for state, hes likely to crack Hasluck again a year later

suspect Mr Wyatt would retire if he loses think he is about 66

If all those Informal voter’s had voted Labor, This seat would have fell in 2016, Not sure why people choose to mess up their ballot paper, They hate democracy? I find it unfortunate, I know people are angry but why screw up ballot papers? I remember seeing some ballot papers last time with swear word’s and inappropriate drawings on then. This seat had 3,425 informal votes, That is damn high, And ideas why people did it? other than voter irregularities

My electorate.

This seat is a likely Labor gain, while Ken Wyatt is a respected local member and is well known in the area the swing against the Liberals will make hard for him to run as “local MP not just a Lib” campaign. Labor has through lots of money in their candidate, James Martin.

This seat is complex.

Midland, Viveash, Middle Swan, Kenwick, Beckenham and Stratton are rock solid Labor booths.

Kalamunda, Helena Valley & surronds bank up strong showings for the Libs and these booths keep the race close.

This ensure a close result. A 5% swing on TPP basis to Labor is the best estimate.

Lots of huge Ken Wayyt placards popping up on businesses along Albany Highway in Maddington

This will be very close. I think Wyatt’s campaigning skills and profile will be a tremendous asset here. Hence, despite the margin, this is probably not as vulnerable as Pearce or Swan.

As always with WA, the swing to Labor is declining rapidly by the day. Even so, the statewide swing would still be enough to put Wyatt out to pasture. Who knows at this point?

W of S
Are your ideas on the swing, intuition, knowledge, or historical foundation ? BTW I don’t think Porter will lose Pierce

Based on the polling. You need only scroll up through this thread to hear estimates of 8% swings statewide. Bludgertrack now has this down to 3%. This is where I think it will stay based on the history of WA results being stronger for the Libs than in other parts of the country.

This was the case at the last election too; the swing at the beginning was enormous but gradually wore down as the campaign progressed.

Ken Wyatt is higher on the ballot paper than James Martin that linked with the fact he is a genuine nice person with the best interests of his constituents in mind may save him. Would be a shame for him to go , the only WA lib that is not an A** but I suspect it may not save him. If he survives it may empower the left of the Libs

Bullying allegations are the end of the line for Wyatt. Every pathway to him winning his seat relied on him being considered relatively well meaning and nice for a Liberal. Now that’s gone and senior Liberals may not want to be seen with him.

ALP gain

Tim Orr for the One Nation party is useless. Anyone who’s ever had the bad luck to be in a room with him know he’s just a complete BSA and full of himself

Galaxy seat poll has this at LIB 50 ALP 50.

I suspect Labor will win Hasluck on the night. Wyatt has been accused of bullying and supporting Clive Palmer (caught putting out their signs). This will play badly in Hasluck. Thus ALP gain.