LNP 15.3%
Incumbent MP
John McVeigh, since 2016. Previously Member for Toowoomba South (QLD), 2012-2016.
Geography
Groom covers the city of Toowoomba and rural areas to the west of the city contained entirely within Toowoomba Region council area.
Redistribution
No change.
History
Groom was created as part of the expansion of the House of Representatives at the 1984 election. The seat has always been held by Coalition MPs.
Groom was first won in 1984 by the National Party’s Tom McVeigh. McVeigh had been Member for Darling Downs since the 1972 election, and was elected Member for Groom in 1984 when Darling Downs was abolished. Darling Downs had previously centred on Toowoomba, which became the centre of the new seat of Groom.
McVeigh retired in 1988, triggering a by-election. The Liberal Party contested the by-election, and their candidate Bill Taylor outpolled the Nationals by 4.5% on primary votes and won a substantial majority on Labor preferences.
Taylor held the seat for a decade, retiring in 1998. The Nationals again challenged for the seat, but fell into fourth place behind Labor and One Nation, with the Liberal Party’s Ian Macfarlane winning the seat.
Macfarlane was made a junior minister in January 2001, and joined the Howard cabinet after the 2001 election as Minister for Industry, Tourism and Resources, a role he held for the remainder of the Howard government. Macfarlane served as a frontbencher while the Coalition was in opposition, and as a cabinet minister during the Abbott government.
Macfarlane was dropped from the ministry when Malcolm Turnbull replaced Tony Abbott as Prime Minister. He attempted to switch from the Liberal party room to the Nationals party room, but the LNP state executive blocked the proposal.
Macfarlane retired at the 2016 election, and was replaced by John McVeigh, who won the seat easily.
Candidates
- Alyce Nelligan (Greens)
- David King (One Nation)
- Perry Adrelius (Conservative National)
- John McVeigh (Liberal National)
- Kenneth Ian Law (United Australia)
- Troy Kay (Labor)
Assessment
Groom is a safe LNP seat.
2016 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| John McVeigh | Liberal National | 49,270 | 54.0 | -1.6 |
| Bronwyn Herbertson | Labor | 20,259 | 22.2 | +0.1 |
| John Sands | Family First | 9,140 | 10.0 | +7.4 |
| Josie Townsend | Nick Xenophon Team | 6,960 | 7.6 | +7.6 |
| Antonia Van Geuns | Greens | 5,618 | 6.2 | +1.8 |
| Informal | 3,380 | 3.6 |
2016 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| John McVeigh | Liberal National | 59,589 | 65.3 | -1.2 |
| Bronwyn Herbertson | Labor | 31,658 | 34.7 | +1.2 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into four areas. A majority of the population lives in the Toowoomba, and these booths were split into two halves: north and south. The booths outside of the Toowoomba urban area have also been split into north and south.
The LNP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all four areas, ranging from 57.2% in Toowoomba North to 71.9% in the rural south.
| Voter group | FF prim % | LNP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Toowoomba North | 11.2 | 57.2 | 19,374 | 21.2 |
| Toowoomba South | 10.1 | 63.0 | 18,733 | 20.5 |
| North | 11.6 | 69.2 | 11,418 | 12.5 |
| South | 11.5 | 71.9 | 6,531 | 7.2 |
| Other votes | 8.3 | 70.1 | 17,307 | 19.0 |
| Pre-poll | 8.7 | 67.0 | 17,884 | 19.6 |
Election results in Groom at the 2016 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Family First primary votes.
The LNP actually had a swing towards them in Toowoomba North at the last state election even though Kerry Shine (ALP member from 2001-2012, nearly won it back in 2015) was the candidate.
In other words, nothing to see here.
Labor have announced their candidate financial adviser Troy Kay. Yep, should be an easy retain for the LNP but probably a swing away from them because of the state swing.
John McVeigh was considered a chance as deputy leader in state politics and now finds himself off the front bench federally. Liberals will likely find themselves in opposition federally after the next election, but McVeigh departure from state politics could be viewed as an indicator that the state LNP won’t be getting back into government anytime soon.
PNW –
McVeigh would surely be aiming at picking up an outer ministry (presumably of the shadow variety) next term. His competition will be diminished, and if he performs well he’ll be in prime position for a front bench role down the track. Groom is pretty safe, he’s got time.
Perry Ardrelius is the Fraser Anning Conservative National Party candidate here.
This should split the PHON/hard right wing vote.
This seat may have an above-average swing to Labor though.
Toowoomba makes up 2/3 of this seat …. with an average lib vote of 60% the remainder is more rural
and more anti labor ….. not likely to change parties
John Mcveigh has resigned triggering a By-election probably for November. It will be interesting to see who the LNP candidate will be. Labor has no chance here and will be Ill-advised to run. Maybe One nation has a remote shot. And if Labor don’t run i expect it to be 60-40 or so LNP vs One Nation. It is possible that last minute one of the Toowoomba state mps (which i believe John Mcveigh used to be) they could retire and run here instead. I think the filing deadline for the state election is still a couple of weeks or so away. The question will be how big the LNP will win vs One Nation assuming Labor does not run. Although i wouldnt rule PHON off completely
It would be a bit of a hard sell for Labor to sit this one out, IMHO.
With something like North Sydney, it could at least be argued that they were sitting out to help a Green or progressive-leaning Independent beat the Liberals. Any angst for them ‘squibbing’ the by-election could be placated by a sort of Greater Good argument.
Here, them sitting out would be helping a One Nation type get their foot in the door, which might not go down as well with the Left.
To try to adjust for incumbency effects here were the 2019 senate votes here:
LNP 44.2
ALP 16.1
PHON 13.4
GRN 6.7
Others 19.6
I’m sure AlexJ will be along with the 4 Party Preferred breakdown :p Undoubtedly 70% or more ALP and GRN voters would preference the LNP in a compulsory preferential LNP vs PHON contest.
Suffice to say the LNP are huge favourites even if they preselect a bucket of manure.
Bennee would be correct!
The (normalised) Senate 4PP in Groom was 9.5% Grn, 18.9% ALP, 51.2% LNP, 20.4% PHON.
The House of Representatives result was 8.5% Grn, 19.4% ALP, 55.3% LNP, 16.9% PHON.
… and that’s actually really really close! Brisbane seats usually have quite a bit more divergence.
In 2016, by comparison, the PHON 4PP was a bit over 21%, which of course featured Hanson leading the ticket. So I’d say PHON’s ceiling is in the 20s here unless they can get very very very good candidate.
I’d be surprised if Labor ran, just because of the timing. This by-election will be a couple of months after the Queensland state election, and finding candidates / running campaigns for Condamine and both Toowoomba seats is difficult enough without throwing Groom into the mix. (They don’t even have a candidate for Condamine yet.) Labor opting out doesn’t make it any easier for One Nation to win, unless their absence motivates a lot of LNP voters to shift to ON for some reason.
LNP already have a massive majority here but if ALP dont run then I see their majority increasing even more. If ALP dont run I think their previous voters are much more likely to go and vote LNP than One Nation, and those who go and vote Green (if they run) are probably more likely to preference LNP over One Nation.
Bird of Paradox
ALP have a good but not perfect record of standing in all seats. They will have no difficulty in finding a candidate even if that candidate is not localLNP will retain seat easily.
Labor ran in the New England section 44 byelection for what it’s worth despite it being completely unwinnable.
However they picked a candidate from an area that overlapped with the NSW marginal state seat Upper Hunter so perhaps the goal was to keep up profile there. Toowoomba North used to be a Labor seat and as recently as 2017 QLD election they were trying to win it back, but I think they’ve given up, and this will be shortly after the state election at any rate.
The only thing that would make this byelection is independents. Perhaps Paul Antonio (who is apparently no longer an LNP member) wants a job in Canberra? That would make it interesting.
If this was any other state you could imagine both Liberals and Nationals running in a regional centre+rural surrounds seat like this. I’m not sure how LNP QLD handles situations where both halves have claims. McVeigh sat in the Liberal party room so I assume they get the candidate; would any disgruntled Nats come out of the woodwork as independents?
With an independent in the mix, preferences come into play, though highly unlikely it would lead to a Labor/Greens victory or anything like that. Independents from highly conservative areas can end up being surprisingly progressive but LNP will still have a majority if they lose here.
PHON, KAP etc. have had plenty of chances to break through here and it’s never panned out.
Not expecting much to happen here.
Kieran the Greens will contest.
Taking a look now they didn’t contest some of the 1994 byelections (including the ones where Tony Abbott and Mark Latham first got elected) but appear to have contested every one since.
They will run here and while their vote will be diluted by the inevitable onslaught of single issue parties that contest every byelection, I think they’ll get their deposit back. They actually increased their vote 2% here in 2019, and they would have been a chance to break through to council if Labor didn’t abandon the local government reforms at the last minute.
I seriously want to know why Labor have not removed Albanese yet as leader because he is just another Mark Latham 2004 all over again (Bill Shorten is Kim Beazley 1998 and 2016 were almost the same, both had big swings back to Labor after bad defeats at the previous elections and 2001 and 2019 were disappointing and surprise defeats for Labor) While i will vote Labor at the next election i won’t with any enthusiasm. As long as Albanese is leader. The Coalition will be in power until 2024/2025 possibly outliving the Howard government despite the fact the coalition has changed leaders so many times and are way more divided than they were under Howard. This is Labors election to lose like last time and unless they dump Albanese. I see no improvement in QLD and them losing Gilmore (which they only won because of Mundine) and possibly Corangamite,Conan,Solomon,Lingiari,Burt,Lyons and possibly more seats, I know this because while Shorten wasn’t a great leader he was seen as more centrist rather than Albanese being an Australian Jeremy Corbyn, by moving the party tk the left. Not impressed at all. If this is LNP vs ALP somehow, (if they run but let alone wil, they even come 2nd place) I could see Labor getting only 25% of the TPP here in groom, (75 – 25) I think if Albanese comes up here to campaign for QLD Labor it will only hurt them and cost them the election, Morrison wouldn’t look good for the LNP either but Labor is delusional 5o think Albanese will claw them back votes here in QLD. They need a Kevin Rudd style leader to win back QLD. Until then…
Gee Daniel
Apparently ANNA sees Albo completely different to you.? Anna has just opened the border with the ACT, just so Albo can come to QLD & campaign for her.!!
So i guess you will agree that Albo’s intervention will put the election result beyond doubt !!??. Perhaps you ought to review some of your predictions !? Maybe we all ought to !?
Beasley senior summed it up well in a speech to ALP Conference.
“When I joined the Labor Party, it contained the cream of the working class. But as I look about me now all I see are the dregs of the middle class. And what I want to know is when you middle class perverts are going to stop using the Labor Party as a spiritual spitoon.”
Albanese is part of the middle class dregs whilst Shorten at least desired a return to working class mentality.
Both ALP and Liberal Party are heading for further splits possibly as big as 1950’s split.
Andrew Jackson
That is indeed a wonderful quote. Albo would argue that as an underprivileged housing commission single parent kid, his working class credentials are impeccable.
However a lifetime of working on the public teat, will create an overarching elitism, & entitlement And a wilful blindness, & denial. So i don’t quite know where you get the “middle class” bit ?.
As for Shorten he has always been obsessed with gaining the patronage & attention of the wealthy & powerful. Have you forgotten that his first wife was a Myer heir ?. He also started with Chloe while they were both married to other people, NOT THAT i am a believer in monogamy!. However he didn’t ‘JUMP” until he had someone better.
HOWEVER again There is far better & more pertinent evidence in how much MORE of a despicable human being he is.
It is my earnest hope that he achieves his ambition of a 3rd Third ATTEMPT, at deceiving Australia into making him PM. He may well be capable of creating the split in the Labor Party that you prophesies !! What an accomplishment that would be! .I have no idea how you see the Liberal Party splitting
Cheers WD