Bennelong – Australia 2019

Last year was a saturation campaign around a section 44 issue with a careerist candidate vs a reasonably popular incumbent. It will be quite different in a general election if Labor selects a more down to earth local candidate, John Alexander retires (I believe he was on his way to doing so before he was 44’d) and voters face less “noise” that causes them to revert to their normal voting patterns.

I wouldn’t write Labor off, although Labor themselves might and I don’t imagine Bennelong being a high priority for them.

John
I really doubt whether John Alexander is ready to change his image to “retiree”. As an image point, probably a Type 3 fixation he’d be heavily invested in remaining productive, & appearing successful . You might also put it down to simple vanity.

It is remarkable that Bennelong was Labor held less than 10 years ago. Alexander must be paid his due for his success in making it so convincingly Liberal. HE must be doing a lot right.

How much change is due to demographics is unknown. However i suspect the voting population has altered considerably, to the point where Labor has no chance whatever.

I think the Liberals have simply done a better job of connecting to the middle-class Asian community than they have in the past. Possibly their success in Reid and Banks is something similar.

John Howard himself admitted that he never had much of a personal vote in Bennelong ….if anything he thought that being PM probably hurt him more than helped him.

So perhaps 2007 was a bit of a perfect storm for Labor, that might be difficult to replicate in the immediate future.

Mark Mulcair
Funnily enough it is almost as if that (asian ) community have done the connecting. I just don’t feel like the libs have really extended themselves.

Same in Strathfield (Reid) & IN Burwood the Libs don’t seem to have progressed . Not much of Hurstville is in Banks so i don’t see where there would be an Asian vote there
Interesting comment about JWH. Don’t you think he always suffered from a perception (mainly in the asian community ) that he was a racist ?
As for the” perfect storm”, it would need to be a “Kamakaze”!

Liberal retain, regardless if Alexander retires or not.

Labor had their chance here last year and poured everything into winning it and fell well short.

Labor has switched their candidate from Lyndal Howison to Brian Owler.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-10-30/labor-pick-high-profile-candidate-brian-owler-in-bennelong/10445710

http://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/former-ama-chief-brian-owler-to-run-for-labor-in-bennelong-at-next-election-20181030-p50csm.html?ref=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_source=rss_feed

High profile candidate Brian Owler apparently running for labor. Clearly they must think this seat is competitive, which it may well be if Alexander retires

boatswain1025
If labor think they are a chance here, they are delusional. This seat has only be going in one direction for the last decade.
It would not be surprising if Bennelong resumed it’s previous trajectory & ended up with a 10% + MARGIN.
Owler is a shocking choice of candidate.After his stint as AMA President he is universally reviled by his colleagues. Why would anyone trade an income of literally $millions a year for a few hundred thousand ? Then throw in the normal abuse, & contempt handed out to pollies. What gives ??

I’m also dubious as to Labor’s announcement of a “high profile” candidate and this supposedly making it a real race.

If Labor were serious about tackling this seat they should have started months ago.

I am not sure why anybody would want to be the ‘star outsider’ for the ALP – they always come to a sticky end – Peter Garrett, Maxine McKew, Cheryl Kernot – to name a few. The ‘stars’ are taken advantage of and then told to sit in the corner and shut up. The organisation is tribal to its DNA and outsiders should realise that before they put their hand up. Kerryn Phelps will get a lot more done as an indie than if she had gone into the ALP.

51-49 Liberal Hold, However i don’t see how a tennis player who knows little about health beat a person who is extremely experienced in this area, Only saying Liberal hold because Labor might not be able to get enough of the Chinese/Asian Community vote

Daniel, Labor actually got a lot of that vote back in the byelection if you look at booths like Eastwood and Carlingford. They lost votes among affluent voters who didn’t appreciate an extremely noisy section 44 byelection.

I think Labor can gain although it’s a question of resources.

Daniel
How is health the critical issue in Bennelong ? Really i’d have thought a dedicated, active local MP would be preferable to a part timer, regardless of who was a doctor.

Redistributed
Agreed. The “Sell out” factor seems to always dominate “star candidates”. Consequently i’m not sure whether they have in fact silenced themselves from the Get.
I’d be fascinated as to what you think Phelps can possibly achieve. I plan to excoriate her in the near future.

Bennee
Spot on. IT really is a pointer to the whole election. The libs will not win. That is not to say they can’t. Can’t means can, but WILL not. That is that can’t, is an exercise in wilfulness ( OR stupidity is you like !)

Actually, I think the residents would rather elect an experienced person who knows allot in an area like Health, Than a Tennis star, The only reason he won 2010 and 2013 and 2016 is because Labor didn’t win a Majority government, Whoever wins the Primary vote nationwide likely wins this, Its a new Bell weather (Primary vote) They didn’t win the By-election because voters have not forgotten about Kristina Kennealy as premier, She led a Labor government that got brutally smashed in 2011

Daniel – Well 3 win in this electorate by the tennis player is credible. Nothing wrong with an MP being a former sportsman either. Daniel who would you prefer as a candidate? Now let me guest perhaps a union hack, lawyer, or grovelling staffer.

Daniel
You have a lot to learn about 5 fixations of which Owler is a typically shockingly fixated example. He has all the warmth , & humanity of Mr Freeze !!! (who was actually a doctor). Have you heard anyone say anything nice about him ??. Colleagues, friends (does he have any?) acquaintances ??. No he is widely reviled, & despised.
He may know a lot about health. However a lot of people know a lot about a great deal. That doesn’t mean they are any good at it. In fact more damage has been done by so called experts, & professionals, than ordinary people approaching challenges with “beginners mind’, & the humility that this requires. That kind of humility is not just alien to 5 fixations but it is virtually incomprehensible

Redistributed – Spot on about the celeb ALP candidates of the recent past and yes Dr Phelps will do well in parliament provided she is re-elected in the general election in 2019.

Daniel – are you really asserting that Bennelong (won once by the ALP since Federation in 2007) is a bell weather. ALP threw what they thought was their best asset at the govt, in a by-election no less, and came up 5% short.
If you really think that, then the Coalition are certs to win in 2019 (which obviously they are not) because they are certs to win here.
Owler doesn’t have any connection with the electorate at all….

The Liberals are concerned about retaining Bennelong.

The bland Angus Taylor even joined the bland John Alexander for a visit to Fletcher Building recently.

It seems such a long time ago since former PM Turnbull joined Alexander on the podium celebrating the by election “victory”(which cost us just over $1,500,000)who will ever forget Alexanders gaffe on the night
Alexander has barely made an impact after 8 years as the MP……there is a reason why he sits glumly on the backbench,occasionally asking a silly Dorthy Dixer…the bloke just makes up the numbers

I wouldn’t be surprised if JA decides to retire…the prospect of at least another 6 years in opposition isnt something to really look forward to
there is money to say Brian Owler can win the seat for Labor…he has firmed from $3.50 to $3 with Sportsbet

the Margin was almost 10% in 2016 and 5% at the by election…………. think Alexander was going to retire then changed his mind……….. he must be worried if he has stayed to retain the seat. The libs are travelling worse over all since this by election.

Newsflash
Dr Brian Owler has firmed in the betting from $3 to $2.75, to beat John Alexander

Alexander,aged 67 is probably asking the question….Do I really want to go to Canberra again and spend 3,6, or 9 long years in Opposition?…retirement must now be looking very enticing,given the hammering the Morrison Government is going to receive in May

Latest Sportsbet odds for Dr Brian Owler.to win Bennelong…he has firmed from $2.75 to $2.10
Overall he has firmed from $3.50 to $2.10…..

at this rate he will be favourite for the May election

with more Liberal Party MPs deciding by the day to quit,the prospect of a crushing defeat looms large for the Morrison Government

the decision to dump Turnbull,now looks rather stupid

yes I think Mr Alexander had moved house and prepared to retire from parliament …… then the Byelection occurred he changed his mind and moved back into the electorate. But now with matters looking dire for the liberals…. his seat is potentially in play. If he did retain the seat as a member of the opposition not government. he needs to think again……. at age 67 life style choices are very important….. not many mps stay in parliament in their and I can think of at least 2 cases Mr Tuckey and Mr Mcarthur where the voters decided to retire them!

This will be a Lib hold, but I think it’ll be much closer than it has any right to be.

There is literally a stampede of Liberal MPs heading towards the exits

O’Dwyer,Keenan,Scullion,Banks,Busby

Alexander must see the writing on the wall…….who would want to spend their retirement years sitting on the opposition back bench …simply making up the numbers ?

Bill Shorten and Brian Owler recently visited a community group at West Ryde,in the heart of the electorate

Labor feeling confident about winning the seat

In 2004 Liberals won Bennelong as the Coalition’s 74th most safe of 87 seats and in 2007 Labor won it as its 77th seat of 83 with 51.4% compared to a national popular vote of 52.7% making it really seem like Bennelong could stay a key bell-weather-like marginal seat. However, after Rudd’s first demise, it shifted back to the right and Coalition won it as its 57th seat in 2010, its 52nd seat in 2013 and then 34th seat in 2016 under Turnbull. After the Liberal implosion and Turnbull’s removal, Labor could achieve a big swing here but it will still remain to the right of the the nation. I can see Libs suffering an 8% or even 9% swing or so and winning it as Coalition’s 50th seat or so, but I think Labor may still have up to 30% chance of winning, in which case I think Labor’s seat count would have to be landsliding well into the 90s. If the Coalition keeps imploding further nationally, this could even be a possibility for Labor’s 100th seat.

There is distinct mood for change in the electorate

when the tsunami hits…John Alexander,together with Abbott,Dutton,Hunt,Porter,Kelly,Freydenberg,Andrews,Flint,Wicks,Joyce and McCormack better be prepared for one almighty shock

and did you forget…… Pyne ^^^

12 listed above my estimate is 22 based on SA by elections . You can add to this list

would say this seat was competitive…….. is similar to the state seat of Ryde which is also competitive………. If Alexander retires then I suspect labour would be favoured

Brian Owler has now firmed again to $2, to win the seat with Sportsbet

John Alexander must be very worried as his opponent continues to firm in the market

Latest Newspoll result….Labor ahead 53/47

I think TPB needs to do more than just parrot polls and start showing whether he actually has the brain to handle deep analytics because, at this stage, he is demonstrating himself to be as much of a troll as Daniel.

The key swing area for this seat is around West Ryde and out towards Ermington. Most of the seat from the 2016 election to the By-Election barely moved (save for the 9% swing at Mac Uni, which is to be expected).

This area is East Asian-Heavy in terms of its demographics. Some may remember that this had one of the strongest votes towards the Unity Party (which had a very strong East Asian focus around immigration policy and ran in NSW Elections). This bloc was the key demographic that swung against John Howard, culminating in his loss in 2007. They then swung straight back to JA in 2010.

The other key area is the other area that has a very heavy East-Asia Demographic and it is Eastwood. It had one of the bigger swings on 2PP, being around 14%. The fact that these two booths swung so much demonstrates the softness in the East Asian Demograhic Vote. They do tend to be socially conservative but can smell BS from a mile off.

As my name has been mentioned. I am entitled to respond, First of all im not a ”troll” I am posting my own opinion on the political climate and as well as where i personally believe seats are going to go as much as you have that right as well, 2nd of all, I have actually been travelling quite a bit around the country, And i sense things when talking to people that’s why in Victoria i sensed a little of underestimation in the Labor vote, I knew they would prove the pollsters wrong and outperform, Correct that i’m not an analyst, But i believe its better to trust someone with experience not skill or listening to the polls or even the media. Because back then the only way of knowing was Talking to people, Back then there wasn’t any Tv’s Computer’s Internet, Twitter,Phones, Non of that. Now we do. The Murdoch press has written so many scare articles and they wan’t you to believe them because the top people in his newspapers are Millionaire’s anyways, Obviously they want you to vote coalition because Rich people tend to. Not only am i saying don’t listen to everything you read in the newspaper but also avoid calling out people as trolls without and real understanding about what we actually saying, And most importantly where i’m getting the information from. As for this seat, Labor Gain. Owler is an even better candidate than Maxine, And Alexander looks weak this time, Kennealy lost because she was not a very popular premier and lead her party to an annihilation in the 2011 state election, As long as there is no ”Mediscare” Then this could be a Labor gain

Comfortable Alexander retain. If he can beat the best state ALP have in KK 55/45, how do ppl think he would lose to an unknown outsider, with diddly sqaut connection to the seat.

Daniel, I am going to call your comments out as trolling because I believe you are post comments that are borderline inflammatory, attempting to pass off “opinions” as facts, posting rants and dribble about the state of the Media when they are completely irrelevant to what anyone has been commenting in the past and failing to stay on topic to the situation at hand when it comes to this site. Anything you have to offer is list amongst the constant dribble coming from your keyboard and I, for one, am sick of it. It’s not in direct violation for the code of conduct that Ben has posted but, for the sanity of people viewing this post and to maintain the exceptionally high quality that Ben works really hard to maintain here, can you keep your posts relevant and as devoid as possible of any attempt to inflame a situation by posting political commentary that isn’t relevant to the page.

Hawkeye, if there are specific things from Daniel that you think violate the code of conduct please message me privately pointing to it. While I often disagree with him I prefer a light touch when it comes to clamping down on comments, and I don’t think a lengthy discussion about what is right or wrong when it comes to commenting is useful.

If Alexander doesn’t retire than Libs will retain easily. However if he retires than I think it’s in play, but I haven’t heard any talk of him retiring in the media

Because of the Asian thing with Michael Daley, this will be a Liberal hold,

Hi Ben,

Very minor correction to make but I think you have JA’s Swing at the By-Election as +5.4% and KK as -7.3%.

I think you have the signs the wrong way round.

This seat has been relatively quiet, with very little media attention. A couple of my friends in the area says that the critical Asian vote is still spooked by the comments by Michael Daley.

Mind you, Brian Owler did draw top spot on the ballot. From the By-Election, JA was positioned 4th, 1 position ahead of KK. The situation with Labor having top spot is exactly the same as the 2016 election. If you compared 2019 v 2016, there is virtually no change. Against the By-Election, Labor gets a 1% advantage

Coupled with Ladbrokes having JA at $1.22, I’m inclined to say JA will hold this but I think it will be a 1.5% swing against him.