ALP 15.2% vs GRN
Incumbent MP
Kelvin Thomson, since 1996.
Geography
Northern Melbourne. Wills covers most of the City of Moreland and small parts of Moonee Valley and Yarra council areas. Key suburbs include Brunswick, Moreland, Coburg, Pascoe Vale, Oak Park, Glenroy, Hadfield and Fawkner.
History
Wills was created for the 1949 election as part of the expansion of the House of Representatives. Apart from a period in the early 1990s, it has always been held by the Labor Party.
Wills was first won in 1949 by the ALP’s Bill Bryson. He had previously held the seat of Bourke from 1943 to 1946. Bryson served as a member of the ALP until the split of 1955, when he joined the new Labor Party (Anti-Communist), which became the Democratic Labor Party. He lost the seat at the 1955 election.
The seat was won in 1955 by the ALP’s Gordon Bryant. Bryant served as a minister in the Whitlam government from 1972 to 1975, and retired in 1980.
Wills was won in 1980 by former President of the ACTU, Bob Hawke. Hawke was in the rare position of a politician who was already a significant national figure in his own right before entering Parliament, and he was immediately appointed to the Labor frontbench. Hawke failed in an attempt to replace Bill Hayden as Labor leader in 1982, but was successful in another attempt on the very day that Malcolm Fraser called the 1983 election, and he won that election, becoming Prime Minister.
Hawke won re-election at the 1984, 1987 and 1990 elections, but in 1991 he was defeated in a caucus leadership ballot by Paul Keating, and he resigned from Parliament in 1992.
The 1992 Wills by-election was a remarkable campaign, with 22 candidates standing. The seat was won by former footballer Phil Cleary on a hard-left socialist platform. Cleary’s victory was overturned in the High Court due to his status as a public school teacher on unpaid leave, shortly before the 1993 election. He was re-elected at the 1993 election, and held the seat until his defeat in 1996.
Wills was won back for the ALP in 1996 by Kelvin Thomson, a Victorian state MP since 1988. Thomson was appointed to the Federal Labor shadow ministry in 1997, and remained on the frontbench until early 2007. Thomson has been re-elected six times.
Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Kelvin Thomson is not running for re-election.
- Kevin Hong (Liberal)
- Ash Blackwell (Drug Law Reform)
- Tristram Chellew (Sex Party)
- Samantha Ratnam (Greens)
- Dougal Gillman (Renewable Energy Party)
- Will Fulgenzi (Socialist Equality Party)
- Zane Alcorn (Socialist Alliance)
- Camille Sydow (Animal Justice)
- Francesco Timpano (Independent)
- Peter Khalil (Labor)
Assessment
The Greens broke through to the top two in Wills in 2013. As a race between Labor and Liberal, Wills is very safe for Labor. As a race between Labor and Greens, it looks reasonably safe.
If the Liberal Party preference Labor, Wills remain very safe. If the Liberal Party reverts to its 2010 decision and preferences the Greens, Wills will become a lot more marginal.
In 2010, about 80% of Liberal preferences flowed to the Greens in neighbouring Melbourne and Batman – the figure is not known in Wills because the Greens came third. In 2013, that preference flow in Melbourne and Batman dropped to 32-33%. In Wills, the preference flow was 28.7% to the Greens.
If you assume that the Liberal preference flow to the Greens would be about 76% (assuming a slightly lower rate than in the neighbouring seats), then the margin would be cut from 15.2% to 4.4% if the Liberal Party reversed its preferencing decision.
The Greens would still have an uphill battle to win against a 4.4% margin, but it would be much more realistic.
2013 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Kelvin Thomson | Labor | 40,931 | 45.1 | -6.1 |
| Shilpa Hegde | Liberal | 20,710 | 22.8 | +0.0 |
| Tim Read | Greens | 20,157 | 22.2 | +0.1 |
| Adrian Trajstman | Sex Party | 2,363 | 2.6 | +2.5 |
| Anne Murray-Dufoulon | Palmer United Party | 2,158 | 2.4 | +2.4 |
| Dean O’Callaghan | Independent | 2,040 | 2.3 | +2.3 |
| Concetta Giglia | Family First | 1,285 | 1.4 | -0.2 |
| Margarita Windisch | Socialist Alliance | 1,024 | 1.1 | +0.3 |
| Informal | 5,304 | 5.9 |
2013 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Kelvin Thomson | Labor | 59,118 | 65.2 | |
| Tim Read | Greens | 31,550 | 34.8 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three areas:
- North-East – Coburg, Fawkner and other suburbs.
- North-West – Glenroy, Pascoe Vale and other suburbs.
- South – Brunswick and other suburbs.
The ALP topped the primary vote in all three areas. In the north-east and north-west, they easily topped the primary vote with 49-50%. In the south, Labor was less than 3% ahead of the Greens.
The Greens vote varied hugely from 37% in the south, to 19% in the north-east and 11% in the north-west.
The Liberal vote ranged from 15% in the south to almost 30% in the north-west. The Greens outpolled Liberal in the south, but the Liberal Party outpolled the Greens in the north-east and north-west. Overall, the Liberal Party came second on primary votes were outpolled by the Greens on preferences from minor candidates.
| Voter group | ALP % | GRN % | LIB % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South | 39.6 | 36.9 | 14.9 | 19,640 | 21.7 |
| North-East | 50.1 | 19.1 | 20.7 | 19,438 | 21.4 |
| North-West | 49.1 | 11.1 | 29.7 | 20,869 | 23.0 |
| Other votes | 42.9 | 22.4 | 24.6 | 30,721 | 33.9 |
Greens will secure a 15% swing on their primary vote, due to loss of Kelvin Thomson personal vote, but it will unlikely be enough to win with Liberals preferencing Labor. Greens will have to wait another election in Wills but are looking strong in neighboring Batman due to good local candidate Alex Balthal and the bumbling and inept David Feeney.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Greens win all 5 of their Melbourne target seats but Wills looks like the toughest.
I’d be shocked if they got more than Batman
The Liberals are running scarred in Higgins. They are treating it like the marginal seat it now is.
@Dubopov you’d be shocked if Bandt held on to his seat?
Batman does seem pretty likely. An interesting tidbit is that Greens actually came 2nd in the seat of Preston at the state election (as well as Northcote of course).
Higgins may be a case of believing social media hype, but Jason Ball seems to have run a flawless campaign and O’Dwyer has lost her lustre. I think the plebiscite will depress the Liberal vote enough for the Greens to pick it up.
Melbourne Ports on the other hand would be down to left leaning voters rejecting Danby and his Liberal preferencing (although ironically that may end up causing Liberals to win the seat). The only seat I can think of where 3 parties have a realistic chance of winning.
I think when the Greens hyped up Wills, Grayndler and Sydney, they were assuming Liberal preferences, whereas Alex Bhathal was always talking about winning the seat in her own right. On the other hand there’s a huge disparity in the quality of candidates. It could still happen.
Daniel, Richmond is another seat that could realistically go one of three ways.
@Daniel just some of my thoughts…
I myself would be surprised if O’Dwyer is held to under 50% of the PV, it hasn’t ever happened to the Lib candidate there. The Greens will not do well in the established conservative areas of the seat. The state seat of Prahran which they picked up is only a small part of the electorate. Nevertheless I applaud them for keeping O’Dwyer on her toes, more than Labor ever did.
I agree, Batman is very much a tossup. Probably their best chance for a gain though. The sitting MP’s shenanigans are deplorable and have probably mortally wounded him there too.
The Greens have no chance in Melbourne Ports – the ALP vote is much too high for them to surpass. Maybe when Danby retires and the Libs pick up more of the Jewish vote that could be more of a possibility for them. Unless Danby is so seriously on the nose which even if he was, I think it would be cancelled out by the general pro-Labor sentiment this time around.
Sydney is a near impossibility for them – the Liberal vote is still relatively quite high and rising. This makes it difficult for the Greens to get into second place. In 2013, the gap was around 13% between the Greens and the Libs. Further, the Lib vote has actually been increasing in recent years too.
The problem in Grayndler for the Greens is Albo. I doubt their chances while he is there. Further, the addition of the Balmain peninsula also adds a further increase in the Li vote, making it just that little bit harder for them to get into second place. It’s probably more realistic to think that the Greens have more of a chance in a few elections time.
Just voted pre-poll at Glenroy. Pretty enthusiastic campaigning and strong presence from both Labor and the Greens there. Interestingly, after all the fuss, there was no reference to either Medi-scare or CFA-scare on the Labor and Liberal HTV cards respectively….
In Moonee Ponds, the pre-poll for Maribyrnong was out the door and down the street. As always, the Liberal candidate had by far the most visible campaign for what is a completely no-hope seat.
Results from the southern booths would be concerning for the state alp seat. Not sure if the alp loses this federally next election though. New incumbent might get two terms.