ALP 6.5%
Incumbent MP
Laurie Ferguson, since 2010. Previously state Member for Granville 1984-1990, Member for Reid 1990-2010.
Geography
South-western Sydney. Werriwa covers western parts of the City of Liverpool and a small northern part of the City of Campbelltown. Key suburbs include Casula, Glenfield, Macquarie Fields, Hoxton Park, Prestons, Rossmore, Austral, Green Valley, Cecil Hills, Miller, Ashcroft and Badgerys Creek.
Redistribution
Werriwa shifted north, losing the Campbelltown suburbs of Ingleburn, Minto, Claymore, Raby, St Andrews, Eagle Vale, Kearns and Eschol Park to Macarthur, and also lost the remainder of Liverpool to Fowler. Werriwa gained Miller, Hinchinbrook, Green Valley, Cecil Hills, Ashcroft, Cartwright, Busby, Heckenberg, Hinchinbrook and Bonnyrigg Heights from Fowler and Badgerys Creek from Macarthur. These changes increased the Labor margin from 2.2% to 6.5%.
History
Werriwa is an original federation electorate, named after an indigenous name for Lake George, near the ACT. The seat originally covered parts of southern NSW including what became northern parts of the ACT. It gradually shifted northeast to the Illawarra, eventually reaching the Liverpool-Campbelltown area. The seat has been a safe Labor seat since the 1930s, and has been held by a number of prominent Labor figures, including a Prime Minister, a Treasurer and a Leader of the Opposition. The seat has seen a record number of five federal by-elections, which have all seen Labor retain the seat, in 1912, 1952, 1978, 1994 and 2005.
The seat was first won by Alfred Conroy of the Free Trade Party in 1901. Conroy was defeated by David Hall (ALP) in 1906. Hall was re-elected in 1910, but resigned in 1912 to return to state politics. Hall served as Minister for Justice then Attorney-General from 1912 to 1920. Hall was expelled from the ALP in 1916 for supporting conscription, along with Premier William Holman.
Werriwa was won by the ALP’s Benjamin Bennett at the 1912 by-election, but retired at the 1913 election, when Conroy was re-elected for the Liberal Party. John Lynch gained the seat back from Conroy in 1914, and left the ALP in 1916 over conscription, becoming a Nationalist.
Lynch was re-elected as a Nationalist in 1917 but lost the seat to the ALP’s Hubert Lazzarini in 1919. Werriwa began to strongly shift from the Southern Highlands into the Illawarra region at the 1922 redistribution, and over the next thirty years Lazzarini saw the seat shift into the Liverpool district and eventually lose the Illawarra.
Lazzarini followed NSW Premier Jack Lang out of the ALP in 1931, and was one of the Labor splitters who brought down the Scullin government, and lost Werriwa to Country Party candidate Walter McNicoll at that year’s election.
Lazzarini regained Werriwa as a Lang Labor candidate in 1934, and returned to the ALP in 1936. Lazzarini served as a minister in the Curtin government and the first Chifley ministry in the 1940s, and held the seat until his death in 1952.
The 1952 by-election was won by ALP candidate Gough Whitlam. Whitlam ascended to the leadership of the Labor Party in 1967 and was elected Prime Minister in 1972. Whitlam was Prime Minister for three years, losing the 1975 election following the dismissal of his government. He remained Leader of the Opposition and led the ALP into the 1977 election, retiring in 1978.
The 1978 by-election was won by John Kerin, who had previously held the neighbouring seat of Macarthur from 1972 until his defeat in 1975. Kerin served as a minister for the entirety of the Hawke government, rising to the position of Treasurer after Paul Keating moved to the backbench in 1991, but a troubled period as Treasurer saw him move to the backbench just before Keating became Prime Minister, and he retired in 1994.
The 1994 by-election was won by Mayor of Liverpool and Whitlam protege Mark Latham. Latham quickly rose to the ALP frontbench following their 1996 election defeat, although he left the frontbench after the 1998 election because of conflicts with ALP leader Kim Beazley.
Latham returned to the frontbench following the 2001 election, when Simon Crean succeeded Kim Beazley as Leader of the Opposition, rising to the position of Shadow Treasurer before Crean resigned as Leader, and Latham was narrowly elected as Labor leader in December 2003.
Latham led the ALP to a defeat at the 2004 election and resigned in early 2005 as both Labor leader and Member for Werriwa. The ensuing by-election (at which the author stood as a candidate for the Greens) saw ALP candidate Chris Hayes safely elected, and he won re-election in 2007.
The 2010 redistribution saw the seat of Reid effectively abolished in its existing form, and this triggered a reshuffling of Labor MPs in Western Sydney. Laurie Ferguson moved from Reid to Werriwa. Hayes shifted north to Fowler.
Ferguson had been a state MP from 1984 to 1990 and had already served twenty years in federal Parliament when he shifted to Werriwa.
Hayes and Ferguson were both re-elected in their new seats, with Ferguson being hit by a large 8.3% swing. Ferguson was re-elected again in 2013.
Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Laurie Ferguson is not running for re-election.
- Ned Mannoun (Liberal)
- Daniel Edwards (Christian Democratic Party)
- Signe Westerberg (Greens)
- Anne Stanley (Labor)
Assessment
Werriwa is a reasonably safe Labor seat, particularly following the redistribution.
2013 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Laurie Ferguson | Labor | 34,117 | 44.1 | -4.5 | 49.0 |
| Kent Johns | Liberal | 30,693 | 39.7 | +1.0 | 36.4 |
| Katryna Marie Thirup | Palmer United Party | 3,363 | 4.4 | +4.4 | 4.0 |
| John Ramsay | Christian Democratic Party | 2,936 | 3.8 | +3.8 | 4.1 |
| Daniel Griffiths | Greens | 2,532 | 3.3 | -9.4 | 3.2 |
| Michael Byrne | Democratic Labour Party | 1,562 | 2.0 | +2.0 | 1.1 |
| Marella Harris | One Nation | 1,519 | 2.0 | +2.0 | 1.0 |
| Kerryn Ball | Katter’s Australian Party | 657 | 0.9 | +0.9 | 1.0 |
| Informal | 11,433 | 14.8 |
2013 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Laurie Ferguson | Labor | 40,426 | 52.2 | -4.5 | 56.5 |
| Kent Johns | Liberal | 36,953 | 47.8 | +4.5 | 43.5 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into four parts. Most of the seat’s population lies in the eastern half of the seat, and these areas have been split into central (including West Hoxton and Prestons), north-east (including Cecil Hills, Green Valley and Hinchinbrook) and south-east (including Casula, Glenfield and Macquarie Fields). The remaining rural booths in the western end of the seat were grouped as “west”.
Labor won a large two-party-preferred majority of 64.5% in the north-east, and a smaller 55.3% majority in the south-east. The Liberal Party narrowly won 50.7% in the centre, and a massive 74% majority in the west of the seat (which has a very small population).
| Voter group | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| North-East | 64.5 | 20,569 | 26.5 |
| South-East | 55.3 | 17,418 | 22.5 |
| Central | 49.3 | 13,146 | 17.0 |
| West | 26.2 | 2,405 | 3.1 |
| Other votes | 56.5 | 23,937 | 30.9 |
This seat was made a lot less interesting by the redistribution. However, a leaked internal poll had the ALP precipitously losing ground in key marginal seats – a shock poll even had them losing support in Werriwa, where it was reported they are down to 53 – 47.
Suspect at best I think, but reflective of a broader trend in which Labor’s campaign is waning in key seats.
Pollbludger noted a story that alleged Labor were shifting resources into defending their own Sydney marginals, amid apparently poor internal polling in Sydney.
I can understand Greenway possibly being at risk due to the unusual circumstances of 2013. But it’s almost impossible to credit Labor being in trouble in a seat containing western Liverpool and Green Valley.
@MM that was precisely my assessment as well. In 2013 I would have thought it possible, heck even this year on the old boundaries it might have been an outside chance. But on the new boundaries? Hell no.
I did take a peek at the Liberal candidate however and he does seem quite impressive – definitely more so than the usual they put up in this seat. Perhaps the source of the extra vote?
The Liberal candidate is the popularly-elected Mayor of Liverpool. He will definitely have significant name recognition across a large portion of this electorate. Actually, I’d bet his name recognition will be far higher than the new ALP candidate. Still – a 3% swing against the trend might be a bit much to expect…
I think the Liberals will get in with Werriwa.
-the area is growing with upwardly mobile people moving into new housing
-the area is becoming more multicultural and more religious.
-Labor has threatened the religious freedom of Muslims, Christians, Hindus and Buddhists by announcing they will be forcing same sex marriage upon the electorate and upon their politicians with no input welcome from the public. (this may be popular in the inner west, but not in the south west.)
-Ned Mannoun is very popular
Take it for whatever you think it’s worth….but the Tele had a story about the Liberals putting some more resources into this seat, so perhaps there is something going on here. I seriously doubt they can win here, but I guess it is an interesting insight into how they see their own Sydney marginals holding up.
The story also suggests that Abbott has devoted his own resources into helping out in Dobell, suggesting (a) the Liberals see Dobell as a close contest, and (b) Abbott has no concerns about any challenge in his own seat.
@MM and yet, Labor are supremely confident re: their internal polls. I seriously doubt their veracity however if most public polls and the actions of the Coalition in recent weeks (suggesting that they are confident) are any indicator.
WoS, I guess I personally would follow the money.
All parties mouth off about how well they are doing, or selectively release “secret internal polling”. But if a party is diverting resources into or out of certain areas, that’s a good indicator of where they think they are at.
It would be good if DB (who I assume is a Liberal insider), or some Labor insider would come back and be prepared to comment honestly on this……
@MM unfortunately I am not privy to internal polls inside the Liberal Party. All I can tell you are the seats that some ground workers feel confident in. Oddly enough, Werriwa is one of those seats.
Given that by all reports, and a few public polls, Macarthur (Lib 3.3%) is seriously in play, it’s hard to credit the idea that next door Werriwa (ALP 6.5%) is also competitive.
DW, I agree it’s a bit hard to believe at face value. But it was an interesting article for showing where the Liberal thinking is at in NSW (even if that isn’t necessarily grounded in reality!).
11000 informal votes bloody hell!
Another thing I forgot to mention here was that a lot of new Werriwa has taken territory from Fowler. At the last election, there was an abnormally large swing to the ALP in those areas due to the Coalition’s poor candidate selection. It is likely that with a far better candidate, the poll is a correction of that anomaly.
I’d be very interested to see how the 2PP figure might change with those booths from Fowler as they stood in 2010.
Andrew, this might be of interest to you:
http://aec.gov.au/About_AEC/research/paper13.htm
This seat will be interesting, I see it being one of the select few which swing to the Coalition against the nationwide trend. Could be around 3% back to the Liberals soley on candidate selection.
I know that this is not a true indication of support but since we have little else to go on and conjecture is rife…
Mannoun has almost 8x as many FB likes as his Labor opponent. Very interesting IMV!
lol at facebook likes
@Dubopov no need for condescension. I pointed out that it wasn’t representative. Just thought it was interesting.
Although, if Werriwa swings to the Coalition on Saturday, I’ll be the one laughing XD
lol again .. I was laughing at the concept, not you .. maybe you are taking it all too seriously!
I agree with the posters above that this will swing to the Libs. The Liverpool mayoral result from 2012 was mind boggling.. Mannoon running as a Liberal, absolutely thrashed the ALP candidate in a popular vote across the whole Liverpool council. This should be complete tiger country for the them.
Someone also mentioned the addition of the areas from Fowler, where the Liberals suffered a 9% swing (in 2013!!) because of candidate selection, which is a very good point. That leaked polling of 53-47 (to ALP) sounds about right to me.
There will be a swing against the Coalition nationally and in NSW. Tell me how that results in them gaining a seat like Werriwa that they have never held? Maybe with Abbott as leader, but I can’t see the Werriwa demographic gravitating to a Liberal silvertail leader.
Shades of Kennett in Dandenong here.
The Liberals threw resources in behind a high profile candidate in a normally safe Labor seat. Werriwa even got a call out by Turnbull in the final week of the campaign. All for what? A mild swing to the ALP.
Though I do find it remarkable that after the big swing in next door Macarthur, Werriwa is now the lesser Labor voting of the two Campbelltown area seats.
Well Werriwa swung a lot less than similar seats in Western Sydney. And Labor did a lot better than expected there I feel. So I suppose that there was some logic for Liberal optimism in that way.
The Liberals did indeed get a swing to them in the areas previously in Fowler. Their problem is that rest of the seat swung the other way, in some areas by a similar magnitude to Macarthur. Perhaps the Liberal backroom boys were only polling half of the electorate!
@MM inaccurate polling is a possibility of course. IMV however I think Labor’s Mediscare campaign really started to bite in the last few days in outer suburban areas. It reneergised their based and pulled back some ‘traditional’ Labor voters.