ALP 3.4%
Incumbent MP
Nick Champion, since 2007.
Geography
Northern fringe of Adelaide and rural areas further north. Wakefield covers the towns of Elizabeth and Gawler on the northern outskirts of Adelaide. It also covers the rural Clare and Gilbert Valleys, Light and Mallala LGAs, and half of Wakefield council area, extending as far north as the towns of Clare and Balaklava.
History
Wakefield is an original South Australian electorate, having been created in 1903 at the first election with single-member electorates in South Australia. The seat has almost always been held by conservative parties. Prior to the 2007 election, the ALP had only won the seat two times.
The seat was first won in 1903 by Frederick Holder. Holder had previously been Premier of South Australia and had won an at-large seat in the House of Representatives in 1901 and had been elected as the first Speaker of the House of Representatives. Holder served as an independent and as Speaker up until July 1909, when he died while presiding over a raucous session of the House of Representatives.
The ensuing by-election was won by the Commonwealth Liberal Party’s Richard Foster, who had previously served as a minister in state governments before losing his seat in 1906. Foster held the seat continuously until the 1928 election, when he was defeated by Country Party candidate Maurice Collins. Collins was defeated at the 1929 election, and the party has never won Wakefield since.
The seat was won in 1929 by Nationalist Charles Hawker, who went on to serve as a minister in Joseph Lyons’ first government before resigning from the ministry in protest against high ministerial salaries during the Depression. Hawker died in a plane crash in 1938.
The ALP’s Sidney McHugh won the seat in the following by-election. McHugh was a former state MP, and lost the seat to UAP candidate John Duncan-Hughes in 1940 before returning to state politics. Duncan-Hughes had previously held the seat of Boothby before losing it in 1928, and then had served as a UAP Senator from 1932 to 1938.
Duncan-Hughes lost to ALP candidate Albert Smith in 1943. Smith was defeated by Philip McBride (LIB) in 1946. McBride had previously held the seat of Grey and then served in the Senate, and had served in Menzies’ first ministry while in the Senate.
McBride served as a minister when the Liberal Party gained power in 1949, first as Minister for the Interior and then as Minister for Defence from 1950 until his retirement in 1958.
Bert Kelly won the seat in 1958, and was a prominent proponent of free trade at a time when it was a minority view. He served as a minister from 1967 until 1969 but his advancement was limited by his free trade advocacy.
The redistribution before the 1977 election abolished the seat of Angas and the sitting member for Angas, Geoffrey Giles, challenged Kelly for Liberal preselection and won Wakefield. Giles had held Angas since 1964, when he won a by-election triggered by the death of Alexander Downer Sr.
Giles retired in 1983, and was succeeded by Neil Andrew. Andrew had a largely undistinguished career until after the 1998 election, when he was elected Speaker of the House of Representatives.
A redistribution before the 2004 election made Wakefield a notional Labor seat, and Andrew retired. Despite the unfavourable redistribution the Liberal Party’s David Fawcett retained the seat. Fawcett held the seat for one term before losing it to the ALP’s Nick Champion in 2007.
Champion was re-elected in 2010 and 2013. His margin peaked at 62% in 2010 before dropping back to 3.4% in 2013.
Candidates
- Richard Inwood (Nick Xenophon Team)
- Marilyn Phillips (Family First)
- Nick Champion (Labor)
- Kathleen Bourne (Liberal)
- Craig Vanstone (Greens)
- Ralph Anderson (Christian Democratic Party)
- John Bolton (Independent)
Assessment
Wakefield is a marginal Labor seat, and will likely remain with Labor. It’s unknown how the Nick Xenophon Team, who polled well over 20% in this area in the Senate in 2013, will effect the race.
2013 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Nick Champion | Labor | 37,723 | 41.5 | -6.4 |
| Tom Zorich | Liberal | 34,425 | 37.9 | +5.1 |
| Paul Coombe | Family First | 5,436 | 6.0 | -0.7 |
| Sherree Clay | Greens | 4,683 | 5.2 | -6.2 |
| Dino Musolino | Palmer United Party | 3,890 | 4.3 | +4.3 |
| Mark Aldridge | Independent | 3,729 | 4.1 | +4.1 |
| Tony Musolino | Katter’s Australian Party | 964 | 1.1 | +1.1 |
| Informal | 5,479 | 6.0 |
2013 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Nick Champion | Labor | 48,510 | 53.4 | -7.1 |
| Tom Zorich | Liberal | 42,340 | 46.6 | +7.1 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into four areas. Most of the seat’s population lies at the southern end of the electorate, in the Elizabeth and Gawler council areas. Gawler council area booths have been grouped, while those in Elizabeth have been split into north and south. The remaining rural booths have been grouped as “north”.
The ALP polled over 60% of the two-party-preferred vote in the Elizabeth area. The Liberal Party won 51.7% in Gawler, and won almost 60% in the north of the seat.
In the Senate race, Nick Xenophon’s ticket won over 20% in most parts of the seat, ranging from 21.1% in Elizabeth North to 27.7% in Gawler.
| Voter group | XEN % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Elizabeth North | 21.1 | 61.4 | 26,000 | 28.6 |
| North | 26.0 | 40.3 | 21,445 | 23.6 |
| Elizabeth South | 23.5 | 64.4 | 14,360 | 15.8 |
| Gawler | 27.7 | 48.3 | 10,694 | 11.8 |
| Other votes | 20.3 | 51.8 | 18,351 | 20.2 |
Honestly I wouldn’t expect any one Nick Xenophon Team candidate to poll more than 15% in any one house of representative seat. Enough to influence seat outcomes because of preference flows (which is important) but not enough for a NXT candidate to unseat any sitting member themselves. Their senate vote will be a different matter with Xenophon himself leading the ticket in a DD.
This seat will no doubt be Labor retain. But if NXT is going to be indicating preferences to Labor ahead of the Coalition across the board which Nick Xenophon has strongly indicated that he would be doing; the combination of NXT prefs going to Labor, and Greens prefs going to Labor, could see some safe Liberal seats in SA such as Boothby, and possibly Sturt and Mayo, all seats that the Greens do reasonably well in, fall to Labor for the first time in decades. Especially if NXT and the Greens manage to poll 30%+ of the vote between them in those seats.
This will probably be one of the worst seats for NXT along with Grey and Barker.
NXT preferences will probably flow to the natural lean of the electorate, similar to PUP at the last election, so I’d imagine quite a swing to Labor.
This is basically a Labor seat with a small Liberal-leaning appendage. SA will likely lose a seat at the next redistribution, which will almost certainly see Wakefield lose most of its rural territory and become a very safe Labor seat.
Labor to retain easily with a large swing before them, the area around Elizabeth is about as rock solid ALP territory as you can get. Next redistribution I largely expect this to lose most of the vast rural north, instead gaining more areas around Salisbury. This would lead to it being one of the safest Labor seats in the country, on boundaries fairly similar to the old seat of Bonython
This is an area which would’ve been heavily impacted by the demise of the car industry, and it’s possible that could enhance the protest vote for Xenophon, so no I’m not necessarily sure this will be one of NXT’s worst seats, although I’d certainly expect under 15%. Labor should retain.
Nick Champion is one of the more intelligent , & clear sighted Labor MPs’ .
Although he mostly follows, & defends the party line, with usual boring diatribe. On several occasion he has advocated a tactical surrender on some issues. This kind of individual thought , & it’s effect ,has been hilarious to observe His line, is usually along the lines of “No we should not oppose this policy, but instead let the country experience it, the effects thereof, & take it out on the coalition”.or words to that effect
Such pragmatism , & individuality , has proven provocative for his colleagues. I believe he is now regarded with some suspicion, as something of a loose cannon.
Sun Tzu said ” He who defends all , is weak everywhere”. Maybe Nick understands this & is trying to help the ALP see the light.
Nick is under no threat whatever from the Libs, or XPT.
Unser the next redistribution this seat is expected to bear the most, & critical changes.I t will probably become a very safe urban ALP stronghold.
L96
I agree completely, that XPT preferences will flow with the usual tide of the seat.
Although i will say that any S australian who doesn’t give their primary vote to XPT, is definitely voting against their own obvious self interest.
Goosh Goosh – the next redistribution in SA could actually see a seat abolished in SA if current demographic trends hold. Wakefield could very well be that seat.
Sandbelter
i put this Mark Mulcair a while ago. He thought/ hoped, it probably wouldn’t happen in the next determination . However he plumped for Boothby, or Makin as more likely, as this would make the subsequent redistribution less complex.
Unlikely, Sandbelter. They tend to abolish a seat in a region of population decline, and Wakefield is in a growth belt. I agree with GG that it will likely lose its rural territory and become basically like the old Bonython. Provided Champion sees out this election (very likely), he will be safe for life.
Boothby stands out as the obvious candidate for abolition in my eyes. But we’ll see….
Got in too quick for me, winediamond!
MM
Tried to save you the trouble !!!! But…..!!!!
MM
See !!. i do take careful note of what you write.
cheers WD
Mark Mulcair/someone else, what state will gain a seat if South Australia loses one?
morgieb, the numbers in Parliament can vary. If it has to go to 149 or 151 seats then it will.
Yeah I know that. Just was wondering who was the closest to gaining a new seat and whether it was likely to happen next cycle.
From memory, the strongest growth is in Vic, Qld, and WA. But WA has just added a seat, and I don’t think the other two can make up enough to gain a new seat by 2017.
Possibly the ACT is the best chance.
MM
Not if the govt does to Canberra, what i think they will !!. 2021 would be a better bet.
Last I looked at the numbers, it’s unlikely that any state will gain a seat. The chances of South Australia losing a seat are about 50/50.
I can’t agree with abolishing Boothby. The southern suburbs require two seats. You’d end up with Mayo as a hybrid urban/regional electorate. There’s already a hybrid urban/regional electorate, Wakefield, and that’s where the brunt of the change should be.
I’d abolish Port Adelaide. Hindmarsh shuffles north and the northern suburbs are covered by Wakefield and Makin.
David Walsh
FWIW i like your idea better than MMs Under the scenario you suggest do you expect either Adelaide, or Boothby would get pulled west into Hindmarsh (as it is) to reach the coast ??
Under this scenario, Boothby would take in the Glenelg/Morphettville area.
Of course this is all very speculative. I hope it doesn’t eventuate. SA already has a very large number of enrolled voters per division. (State entitlements being based on population, not enrolment.) Plus it has the potential to make SA far less interesting electorally, with all electorates having a decided tilt one way or the other.
DW
i agree completely
Hi all
In relation to the discussion on whether or not SA will have to lose a Division at the next determination….it’s getting close.
The most recent stats on the ABS website – published 24/3/16 and based on September 2015 data
Applying the Determination process to the statistics produces the following:
Population of the Commonwealth (6 States) – 23,220,300 (rounded to the nearest 100 in each state)
Divided by double the number of Senators from the States (144) = 161,252.0833
SA population: 1,701,100
Divided by: 161,252.0833 = 10.5493
But if SA is close, the NT is closer
NT Population = 244,500 = 1.5163
With both growing at less than the national average, by the time the Determination is published in July or August next year it will be very close for both.
Link to ABS website: http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/3101.0
JW
Wow that could be really interesting if SA, & NT were each to lose a seat. Would that mean that the ACT, & NSW gain one each.??? That would be really funny in a way !!!. AT the last determination, there was a strong argument for NSW not losing a seat. Will this be vindicated ???.
wd
Just because 1 State or Territory has sufficient population to gain an extra Division doesn’t automatically mean that another State or Territory loses a Division.
The current entitlement has been in place since 1984 and since then there has been 148,149 & 150 Divisions in the mix at different elections.
A small correction to the NT figure from my previous post – I forgot to include both Christmas and the Cocos Islands in their calculations. Those numbers were from just the NT itself.
The ACT is also getting close to gaining its 3rd seat but not quite there, yet. Though it is growing at greater than the national average.
Using those stats on the ABS website to show the number of entitled Divisions:
NSW = 47.4053
Vic = 37.0023
Qld = 29.723
WA = 16.1127
ACT = 2.431
And we don’t need to mention Tasmania. 🙂
Nt has a provision which as I understand it , subject to correction from the experts means it will continue to have two seats regardless – very cranky as an ACT voter as we now have the two largest seats in the country,
doughyndetspeedcomau
Doug ,as i told you before , you have 2 senators, so you are hardly under-represented. Get over it !!!.
Besides when you bubble dwellers in canberra get your 3rd seat you’ll have decades of having 3 low-enrolment seats. So just have a massive , massive teary about it all !!!,
JW
didn’t know about the 148 seat scenario. Still it’s is only about 75,000 voters for NSW to raise their entitlement, (over trend growth of course)
Senators don’t determine who forms government. And since the ACT always returns 1 Labor, 1 Lib they cancel each other out anyway.
DW
I was talking representation. Also the senate have showed in the last 3 years who really runs the country, sadly.
Morgan gives Labor 35%, Lib 27.5%, NXT 19%, Greens 5.5%, Others 14%.
I am not sure why the “Others” vote is so high here. Again, NXT seems to be taking roughly equally from both majors.
My prediction: Labor hold, although if Labor were to lose a seat in South Australia, it would be this one.