LIB 10.1%
Incumbent MP
Christopher Pyne, since 1993.
Geography
Sturt lies in the eastern suburbs of Adelaide. The southern part of the seat covers most of Burnside LGA, while Campbelltown LGA covers the centre of the seat, and five other LGAs each overlap with the western and northern fringes of Sturt. Sturt stretches north to Grand Junction Road, and key suburbs include Glen Osmond, Burnside, Magill, Felixstow, Campbelltown, Klemzig, Gilles Plains, Rostrevor, Newton, Paradise, Athelstone and Highbury.
History
Sturt was created for the 1949 election, and has almost always been held by the Liberal Party. Indeed, except for two terms when it was held by the ALP, the seat was held by the same family from its creation until Pyne was elected in 1993.
The seat was first won by Keith Wilson in 1949. He lost the seat in 1954 to Norman Makin. Makin had served in the House of Representatives from 1919 to 1946, during which time he served as Speaker of the House of Representatives and a Minister in the Curtin and Chifley governments, before becoming Ambassador to the United States.
Makin abandoned the seat in 1955 for the safer Bonython, and Wilson returned to the seat. Wilson retired in 1966 and was succeeded by his son Ian. Ian served as a junior minister in the last term of the Fraser government before going to the backbench after the election of the Hawke government.
Wilson was challenged for preselection in 1993 by 25-year-old Christopher Pyne. Pyne served as a Parliamentary Secretary from the 2001 election until January 2007, and he quickly moved into the role of Minister for Ageing.
The 2007 election saw a significant swing to the ALP, with Pyne’s margin being slashed from 6.8% to 0.9%. This was a dramatic shift from the usual range of margins in Sturt. From the expansion of the House of Representatives in 1984 until 2004, all but one election saw the Liberals hold Sturt with a margin between 5.7% and 8.2%, although Pyne managed a 10% margin at the 1996 landslide.
Pyne increased his margin to 3.4% in 2010, and to 10.1% in 2013.
Candidates
- Matthew Wright (Nick Xenophon Team)
- Rebecca Galdies (Greens)
- Geoff Russell (Animal Justice)
- Craig Bowyer (Family First)
- Matt Loader (Labor)
- Christopher Pyne (Liberal)
- Neil Aitchison (Independent)
Assessment
In a normal political environment, Pyne would be considered to be reasonably safe in Sturt – a 10% margin against Labor will be difficult to overturn.
The presence of the Nick Xenophon Team could change things – Xenophon polled very strongly in Sturt in 2013, and if NXT can get ahead of Labor they could prove a threat to the Liberal Party.
Polls
- 44.2% to Liberal, 21.3% Labor, 14.5% NXT, 9.9% Greens, 6.1% undecided – Reachtel commissioned by AMWU, 31 March 2016
- 41.4% to Liberal, 21% NXT, 20.4% Labor, 8.4% Greens, 5.5% undecided – Reachtel commissioned by GetUp, 22 May 2016
- 50% to Liberal, 21% NXT, 17% Labor, 6% Greens – Galaxy, 15 June 2016
2013 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Christopher Pyne | Liberal | 49,429 | 54.4 | +6.2 |
| Rick Sarre | Labor | 26,258 | 28.9 | -7.1 |
| Anne Walker | Greens | 8,902 | 9.8 | -0.3 |
| Kylie Barnes | Family First | 3,565 | 3.9 | +0.2 |
| Gabriella Alexandra Scali | Palmer United Party | 2,713 | 3.0 | +3.0 |
| Informal | 4,303 | 4.7 |
2013 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Christopher Pyne | Liberal | 54,591 | 60.1 | +6.5 |
| Rick Sarre | Labor | 36,276 | 39.9 | -6.5 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three areas: central, north and south.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 54% in the north to 64.5% in the south.
Nick Xenophon’s Senate vote ranged from 28.2% in the south to 30.7% in the centre.
| Voter group | XEN % | GRN % | LIB 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South | 28.2 | 10.7 | 64.5 | 26,639 | 29.3 |
| Central | 30.7 | 9.2 | 57.0 | 21,815 | 24.0 |
| North | 29.2 | 9.2 | 53.8 | 17,152 | 18.9 |
| Other votes | 23.9 | 9.8 | 62.3 | 25,261 | 27.8 |
Election results in Sturt at the 2013 federal election
Click on the ‘visible layers’ box to toggle between two-party-preferred votes, Greens primary votes and Senate votes for the Nick Xenophon group.
This will come down to whether NXT indicate preferences to Labor ahead of the Liberals on their HTV cards, or whether NXT run open tickets. If the former, combined with Greens voter preferences, combined with a likely decrease on the Liberal primary vote, the Labor candidate could serously threaten Pyne’s hold on the seat.
Still think that without the man himself on the ballot paper that NXT will fail to attract any more than 15% of the vote in any seat.
I know it’s a big call, but I think this could be a realistic chance for NXT (the only other one is Mayo which I think they will win). If word gets out and Green voters preference tactically to NXT over Labor, Pyne could be in trouble,
I read today that NXT will have an open ticket in all House seats it’s running in.
I see Sturt as Lib v. NXT race, though you’d think with the announcement on submarines in SA this should be more than enough for Pyne to hold on. I think it’s unlikely NXT will poll as well without Xenophon on the ballot as opposed to when his name is mentioned when conducting an opinion poll.
A GetUp commissioned ReachTEL poll (762 sample) from 2 weeks ago has NXT at 21.3% in Sturt with Pyne on 41.4%, ALP 20.4%, GRN 8.3% according to The Guardian.
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/jun/03/nick-xenophon-team-polls-well-in-jamie-briggss-south-australian-seat-of-mayo
The opening part of this page says a lot “Christopher Pyne, since 1993.”
OMG, since 1993!
Fresh eyes people, how about a change. Political parties / Politicians are not football teams! Its not a life long commitment and crikey it feels like that with Pyne.
Move on already.
Morgan’s poll is very similar:
Lib 41%, NXT 22%, Labor 20%, Greens 10%, Others 7%.
NXT taking from both major parties. You would expect the Greens to push Labor into second place on these numbers.
^That is probably true re: the Grns 2nd prefs going to the ALP. However, if NXT picks up a couple more %, gains most of the Others 2nd prefs and a also higher than normal Grn 2nd pref …….then it will be very interesting. Lots of ifs in that scenario though.
Pyne will be on one of the networks during the count…..it will be fun to watch.
http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/6855-roy-morgan-south-australian-seat-analysis-june-2016-201606161716
tactical voting becomes very important….. by Labor and the greens esp in the lib held seats
eg in this seat if greens voted nxt directly or via preferences then Labor Prefs would be
distributed….. who are 7% other?
Galaxy poll 2PP has Lib at 58%, NXT at 42%……I sense that this will still tighten in the next 2 weeks and still might be one to watch on the night.
I am the Independent Candidate for Sturt and my election website is at:
http://www.sanctuary.net.au
My prediction: Despite some polls saying otherwise, particularly with good poll numbers for the Nick Xenophon team, Christopher Pyne should win again. Sturt has not left Liberal hands since 1969, and while the Xenophon Team will likely finish second, Pyne should have enough of a buffer to win a ninth term.
Could have been an NXT gain if Greens preferenced them over Labor and Labor clearly preferenced them over Liberals.
I suppose labor and the greens realize that Xenophon is basically a liberal/national party reject like most of so-called independents in recent times – Hanson, Palmer, Katter, Oakeshott, Windsor etc
They may be a diverse group, but they have been chipped off the tory block
Xenophon is a lot more centrist than most, though. He has some right-wing positions, but some of his positions are left-wing, too.