CLP 1.4%
Incumbent MP
Natasha Griggs, since 2010.
Geography
Solomon covers the Darwin metropolitan area, as well as the nearby city of Palmerston.
History
The Northern Territory first elected a Member of the House of Representatives in 1922, but this person was only given full voting rights in 1968.
The seat was held by the Country Party and then the Country Liberal Party from then until 1983
Labor and then the CLP each held the seat for one term from 1983 to 1987, before Warren Snowdon won the seat for the ALP in 1987.
Snowdon lost the seat for one term in 1996 before being returned for one more term in 1998.
The 2000 redistribution saw the Northern Territory gain a second seat for the first time, and the seats of Solomon, covering Darwin and Palmerston, and Lingiari, covering the rest of the territory, were created.
In 2001, Country Liberal candidate Dave Tollner won the seat by only 88 votes. In 2004, he increased his margin to 2.8%. The 2007 election saw Tollner lose his seat to the ALP’s Damian Hale, by a slim 0.3% margin.
In 2010, Hale lost his seat to Palmerston alderman Natasha Griggs, running for the Country Liberal Party. In 2013, Griggs won a second term, despite a 0.35% swing back to Labor.
Candidates
- Todd Williams (Greens)
- John Kearney (Australia First)
- Natasha Griggs (Country Liberal)
- Robert Dawes (Liberal Democrats)
- Lance Lawrence (Help End Marijuana Prohibition)
- Mark Garner (Independent)
- Silvija Majetic (Rise Up Australia)
- Marty Reinhold (Shooters, Fishers and Farmers)
- Luke Gosling (Labor)
- Brigid McCullough (Citizens Electoral Council)
- Nevin Cartwright (Online Direct Democracy)
Assessment
Solomon is a very marginal seat and could well go to either the Country Liberal Party or to Labor.
2013 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Natasha Griggs | Country Liberal | 23,875 | 44.7 | -1.7 |
| Luke Gosling | Labor | 18,929 | 35.4 | -0.7 |
| Todd Williams | Greens | 4,269 | 8.0 | -5.3 |
| Stephen Christopher Spain | Palmer United Party | 2,691 | 5.0 | +5.0 |
| Krystal Metcalf | Sex Party | 1,847 | 3.5 | +3.5 |
| Martin Burgess | Voluntary Euthanasia Party | 597 | 1.1 | +1.1 |
| Paul Sellick | Rise Up Australia | 527 | 1.0 | +1.0 |
| Eileen Cummings | First Nations | 470 | 0.9 | +0.9 |
| Trudy Campbell | Citizens Electoral Council | 217 | 0.4 | -0.9 |
| Informal | 2,991 | 5.6 |
2013 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Natasha Griggs | Country Liberal | 27,461 | 51.4 | -0.4 |
| Luke Gosling | Labor | 25,961 | 48.6 | +0.4 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three clear parts. The town of Palmerston stands apart from the City of Darwin. Within Darwin, there is a clear divide between the south and the north of Darwin.
Thus the booths have been divided into Palmerston, North Darwin and South Darwin.
The ALP won a large 57% majority in North Darwin, which makes up about half of the seat’s population. The Country Liberal Party won a similarly large majority in Palmerston, and a 55% majority in South Darwin.
The CLP also won a large 55.7% majority in the special votes, thanks to large pre-poll majorities.
| Voter group | GRN % | CLP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| North Darwin | 9.5 | 43.1 | 18,505 | 34.6 |
| Palmerston | 4.3 | 57.0 | 9,660 | 18.1 |
| South Darwin | 9.1 | 54.6 | 8,968 | 16.8 |
| Other votes | 7.8 | 55.7 | 16,289 | 30.5 |
I think the trouble for the state CLP will bleed very much into the result here despite the work of Natasha Griggs. Very much a tossup, maybe with the ALP slightly in front.
I can’t see the CLP holding Solomon. Much like in WA, state/territory politics plays a large part in federal results in the NT mostly due to the distance between Canberra and Darwin.
I’ll back Griggs to hold this one on incumbency. It’ll be close. Too close.
Difficult one to call, but the incompetence and chaos of the NT CLP government may well hurt Griggs and her chances of reelection
[Comment deleted]
That’s an appalling remark, winediamond.
Yes I agree. Comment deleted.
DW
I agree too , & i apologise unreservedly, of course.
I was curious to see if anyone would defend the lady’s honour. Well done on the chivalry score Sir David. However i did have a purpose in the provocation, which will be evident in the future.
Ben
I apologise for causing you the inconvenience as well.
This will be the first to fall, she is a weak performing member in a tough seat that bucked the trend in a bad year for labor in 2013
@Dan I do not think you’re right in demonising Griggs’ credentials. She was actually a very popular deputy mayor and is hailed on the ground as a strong MP.
The swing last election could be explained by the absolutely abysmal performance of the CLP at the territory level. I am a Liberal through-and-through and even I would NEVER vote for the mish-mash that is the CLP.
local politics and federal politics are different worlds. I also question how many people would consider a deputy mayor to be popular. If last election swing was due to one year into the CLP I’d hate to be natasha when your up for election one month before the NT makes up its mind on the government
@Dan I do not think you can really separate the two. It is a well known fact that state and federal politics often bleed into their respective results (some might even say that it had a transformative impact in Victoria back in 2014). The point is, people form judgements about a politician, irrespective of which level of government they serve in.
As for the swing, yes I agree absolutely. I do not think you realise how much trouble the CLP are and were having in the Northern Territory. There has been talk that they could be reduced to 0 seats in the Assembly! So yes, IT IS A VERY BAD GOVERNMENT.
Im not arguing that they are not bad government the main point is being a popular deputy mayor would account for little and she has been a disaster this term so if this doesn’t fall then what will
one party truly on the nose at another level of govt can…. have an impact…. eg 1990 elect in Vic federal seats, and as others remark……. lnp at the territory level is very very very unpopular… this is relevant here and makes the seat a probable ALP gain
Dan, we meet again.
“Local politics and federal politics are different worlds.” What? Are you trying to say there is no relationship between the election results at different levels of government? It is the same people voting, and their preferences won’t change dramatically just because the level of government is different.
I agree with Wreathy of Sydney, you cannot possibly separate them purely because the electors are the same P.E.O.P.L.E at the end of the day
@Dan and I just provided you reasons as to why local and state politics can and likely have accounted for something at the federal level. That was my whole reason for highlighting the failures of the CLP – because it *is* going to affect the result as history has proven and as MC has stated.
Bear in mind that Palmerston only makes up about a quarter of the seat – so even if Griggs’ success in local politics is relevant, you can’t generalise that to the 3/4 of the seat in Darwin.
@Ben that is of course, true.
Greens candidate is Todd Williams.
http://greens.org.au/news/nt/announcing-todd-williams-solomon
The 62% TPP result in favour of the ALP in the recent NT election poll would suggest that the chances of the CLP holding this seat, on current trends, are minimal regardless of which party wins the next election.
Sportsbet has Labor leading here, but Coalition still in the running.
Labor 1.55, Coalition 2.40
Usually unpopular state (or in this case, territory) governments do cause damage to their federal counterparts. That being the case you’d expect Labor to cruise to victory in Solomon.
However, with NT being so remote and small in population, it’s possible voters here draw a greater distinction between federal and territory matters.
Liberal Democrats sound to be the most interesting party with fresh ideas this time. If you are tired of over regulation and puppet politics then they are the ones to vote for.
My prediction: Always a close seat, Solomon will be one to watch in 2016. Ultimately, I think the poor performance of the CLP territorial government will make reelection for Griggs to high of a mountain to climb this year. Expect the final result to be close though.
I need to vote interstate this time so I looked up this site to double check the entire list of candidates – I don’t suppose there will be spruikers to help me down in Western Sydney! Imagine my shock, as a recent Territorian, to find that Dave Tollner was the man selected to represent us at a federal level. Twice. I am aghast and agog. Even his own party hasn’t preselected him for his local seat this August, so the decisions he is making in Territory politics at present could be viewed pretty cynically. This DOES make me wonder what the federal election will turn up for the NT. Based on that TwiceTollner vote, anything is possible. I apologise in advance.
Seems there’s a new poll out here.. http://www.hot100fm.com.au/news/local-news/50797-latest-poll-reveals-12-per-cent-swing-against-solomon-mp-natasha-griggs
A 12% swing!!
That is way over the top end (pun intended). Half of that seems much more realistic but then even a couple of % would be enough.
I agree. Those PV look very sketchy to me but then direction is probably right – Griggs is in real trouble and will lose this seat.
Both leaders have been in NT in the last week or two, so it’s obviously much closer than this poll says. Leaders are not going to waste much time in seats they’re winning/losing by 60-40!
After Griggs seemingly assaulted someone who was filming her on a phone, I figured she had no chance – if she had a chance to start with.
Labor has firmed, here.
Labor 1.40, Coalition 2.60
As this is now outside the “tracked’ range, I won’t update it again unless it gets closer again.
According to Pollbludger, Labor apparently claim their polling has them ahead here, but narrowly.
Prediction: Labor to win by a fair bit, the CLP state government will weigh down Griggs
Labor have done handsomely here, the biggest margin ever for this seat. Obviously the CLP weighed her down significantly – a portent for the bloodbath that is coming in a few months for the Territory government. They may not even be able to win a seat.
Natasha Griggs at the last minute decided to preference a loony right wing party. It seems conservatives deserted her in droves. She must have actually wanted to lose. My advice would be next time preference John Kearney. because he is actually barking mad, even by N T standards. Nobody to blame but your silly self I am afraid dear. Where to now Natasha? Local politics ? Maybe not as a willy seems to be a prerequisite for the pubescent boys club that passes as a government.