Petrie – Australia 2016

Lindsay (created in 1984) and Robertson (from 1983 onwards) have longer bellwether records. Which makes sense since NSW, and Sydney in particular, has such a large say in the outcome.

Page apparently stands a good chance of going the same way as Eden-Monaro. Deakin’s only been a bellwether since 1996.

I am hearing that Petrie will get over the line for Jacqui, but only just. Strange given what is apparently happening in Longman.

Petrie you could argue since 1975 with only one interruption. I choose Petrie due to fact that not only is a bell weather but the underlying state state seat of Redcliffe is as well.

I acknowledge Lindsay would meet this criteria as the state of Penrith does as well.

Robertson – the presence of Barry Cohen to 1990 and lack of a bellwether state seat doesn’t really meet this criteria yet.

Galaxy poll has Petrie 2PP, LNP 48%, ALP 52%

One week to go, and here are my seat-by-seat predictions (any amendments I’ll post on the day before the election):

I can’t see Luke Holwarth holding with such a low margin, Petrie’s bellwether streak will likely end in 2016.

Strangely, I have not seen a single yard sign in the area for Pedersen in the last few weeks, whilst seeing hundreds for Howarth. I live on the south boundary of the electorate so perhaps Labor’s support grows as you head up to the peninsula.

The swing against the coalition in QLD will be very patchy and overall won’t be as big as in other states. I think the swing could be counter-balanced by the loss of Y’vette Dath’s personal vote. Howarth could hold on for a similar wafer-thin margin but nothing is guaranteed.

Heard on Sunrsise early this morning that Labor’s internal polling showed them seriously struggling here. By how much I don’t know – either I missed the numbers or they didn’t say. Whether it’s true is anyone’s guess.

Just an update on my previous post. According to Mark Riley, Labor are also surprisingly at particular risk in Griffith and Moreton. I believe the phrase he used was ‘Turnbull is more popular in Brisbane than he is in Sydney’.

Of course if the story is true, then it has other implications too. The swing in QLD is reputed to be around 5 – 6%. Therefore, if the swing is not coming from Brisbane, one would expect that there are going to be some significant and sizeable corrections in rural and regional areas. Either that, or Labor have dramatically improved in their safe seats.

There has been persistent media gossip that Labor are worried about their own Brisbane seats. There’s also been persistent gossip that Labor doing unexpectedly well in safer rural LNP seats like Dawson and Flynn. So your scenario is quite possible.

Personally, I think most of it is just shadow boxing between the parties…but who knows?

Mark Riley is one of the most pro-Liberal reporters in the Australian media (and that takes some doing), so his seat predictions could have a wishful thinking factor.

As for the QLD swing, there will be 10% swings in some regions ..

@Dubopov it’s all a matter of perspective mate. Say that to a bunch of us in the Liberal Party and you’ll find everyone laughing at that prospect that Riley is pro-Lib!

Nevertheless, your premise is correct. They do look a bit suss so either a bit of subjectivity is coloring his conclusions or the leaked polls are wrong/deliberately-fabricated.

The polling was apparently a Galaxy poll of Queensland commissioned by Labor. So it’s “real” in the sense that it exists. But like many commissioned polls, you don’t know if you can trust it.

Exactly why you would leak such negative polling 3 days out from an election is another story….

@MM well the explanation that Riley gave was that it was a common tactic to galvanise the base and stop uncertain swinging voters from going the other way.

The ‘galvanize the base’ theory applies to a Govt trying to halt swinging voter movement.

PS Wreathy.. A mate of a mate who knows Riley refers to him as that “Effing Tory deleted”. I gather he’s argued with him a few times.

I said months ago, Labor wouldn’t do as good in this seat as they thought, even if they do win. What Labor wouldn’t give for Newman in power still.

Dubopov
Have you forgotten those moments when Tony Abbott’s political future hung in the balance !!!??. Mark Riley asked him a question that was so offensive, & that so, completely enraged him, that TA was shaking, & speechless !!!.

I have never seen anyone so close to being belted, that wasn’t flattened.

No “pro -liberal” journalist would ever have contemplated provoking a PM, in this way
I find your assertion simply hilarious.

wine d .. I have an inkling that a lot of liberals wanted to get rid of abbott going as far back as the 90’s

I have no reason to doubt the word of people I actually know

Right, time to finalise my predictions for all 150 seats around the nation.

Prediction: Labor gain, but not by a large amount

I’m gonna stick with mu upset prediction of LNP retain…..unfortunately.

I am starting to be more confident about the LNP holding here. Labor’s vote just isn’t high enough. With no One Nation, Katter, Palmer, ALA or Xenophon candidate, I believe there won’t be as many people switching from the LNP to a third party here

As some of us expected, the LNP have held on handsomely here. Neighbouring Longman swung violently.

AJ, you make the mistake of substituting your own preferences for those of the electorate. It would be remarkable if the LNP held a seat with a 0.5% margin whilst losing a neighbouring seat with a 6.9% margin.

Mea culpa!

Andrew Jackson, you were on the money.

Thanks David.

It is not over yet and I have no doubt that postal voting will favour LIberals. I suspect that a lot of postal voting will have moved top pre-poll voting meaning I am wary about gloating too much.

I try not to let my bias clid my judgement. IT is true that if I had lived in Petrie (a few hundred metres from home) I would have favoured HOwarth but as I live in Longman I am part of the groundswelkl of crossbench supporters who preferenced Susan Lamb over Wyatt Roy. I was temptedto use Peta CRedlin’s descriptor but am wary of usetting Ben Raue.

Thanks BEn for an excellent blog that is very usefull for on the ground info.

3 Days after the election I spotted for the first time a Family First Billboard costing thousands. When will Commercial Artists rediscover that Black and White is better than inverted white print on an orange background.

I missed the FF Billboard and I was looking.

Andrew Jackson
apjackson@hotkey.net.au

Thanks David.

It is not over yet and I have no doubt that postal voting will favour LIberals. I suspect that a lot of postal voting will have moved top pre-poll voting meaning I am wary about gloating too much.

I try not to let my bias clid my judgement. IT is true that if I had lived in Petrie (a few hundred metres from home) I would have favoured HOwarth but as I live in Longman I am part of the groundswelkl of crossbench supporters who preferenced Susan Lamb over Wyatt Roy. I was temptedto use Peta CRedlin’s descriptor but am wary of usetting Ben Raue.

Thanks BEn for an excellent blog that is very usefull for on the ground info.

3 Days after the election I spotted for the first time a Family First Billboard costing thousands. When will Commercial Artists rediscover that Black and White is better than inverted white print on an orange background.

I missed the FF Billboard and I was looking.

Andrew Jackson
apjackson@hotkey.net.au

No surprise with Howarth getting re-elected, work the electorate strongly for 3 years and had a pretty good on the ground profile. Was very active in community groups, small business and school groups. His on the ground campaign out numbered Labor 10 to 1… The concerning thing for Labor is there Primary vote has gone down and Howarth up aprox 4%. But Longman down 8% and Dickson 5%?? Labor candidate the problem???

It’s Swings and Roundabouts…The ALP vote in Petrie held up much better in the last two elections, whereas the Liberal vote was over-inflated in Longman. Now Yvette Darth is gone, the gloss has worn off Roy Wyatt and Peter Dutton has had a lot of national exposure, which dosen’t appear to have helped him.

However it does appear that there is now a Howarth factor working for the Liberals here. Its undeniably a good result for them in a fickle and difficult area as illustrated by the shenanigans in the Redcliffe state seat over the last 10 years. I’d still rate Petrie as (underlying) slightly more Liberal leaning than Longman though.

I agree with Peter. Based on demographics Petrie should be a Liberal leaning marginal and Longman a Labor leaning marginal. State seats of Morayfield and Kallangur (and to some extent Pine Rivers) within Lean ng are natrual Labor areas. While Redcliffe, Murrumba and Pumicestone have mainly been held by Labor since the early 90s that is an indictment on the state LNP.

Pumicestone falls entirely within Longman.

I think Petrie now qualifies as Australia’s bellweather seat. With Robertson in hot pursuit.

It’s Robertson – Petrie only goes back to 1987 whereas Robertson goes back to 1983.

Robertson had a strong personal vote for Barry Cohen (strong enough to withstand the dismissal) it only really became predictive again after he retired in 1990.

Realise that David, but Pumicestone should still lean LNP It is the part that counter balances the Labor section of Longman