Perth – Australia 2016

In 2013 you could not turn a corner without seeing a Liberal billboard or sign. Now, in 2016, I have only seen Labor signage so far. I take that as a sign!

I don’t think Labor will have any trouble here. Wouldn’t be surprised if the Greens increased their vote here.

OTM
Do you have any suggestion s for the libs , on what they might campaign on ??. What exactly could they do to positively influence a swinging voter in Perth ??.
How could they justify spending even one electioneering dollar here ??

L96
I agree about the Green vote.
What are you thinking high teens or 20 % ??
The Green preferences alone ought to give labor a 2% swing. So a swing of less than 7 % would be disappointing i’d have thought.
i’d had high hopes for McTiernan. Sadly quite unrealised.

WD
I would think high teens, the boundaries are quite weird and go into not so friendly suburbia, but then again some friendly territory from Curtin has been transferred in.
Labor should romp home with a big swing here as well as Burt, Fremantle and Brand.
As for McTiernan, she was just a little too old and she seemed quite impatient, If she had stayed in state politics I dare say she could have been leader by now.

@L96 If the redistributed areas are strongly Liberal then there would likely be a strong Green vote that comes along with it, I completely agree with you.

Whilst I am not particularly aware of the intricacies of WA, I would tend to agree with your assessment on the overall state result, likely to be 11 – 5 to the Coalition. It is still a bit early but here is a stab:

Labor will easily hold all of its current seats: Perth, Brand and Fremantle. They will likely also gain Burt (especially with its lack of an incumbent) and probably Cowan too. If the swing is on then Hasluck will certainly be in play, but I think Wyatt should hold on. There may even be another surprise in Canning or even Stirling, the swing according to the BludgerTrack is shaping up to be ~ 8%!

Re: Mactiernan I was also hopeful with her. Stephen Smith always used to talk her up and I always had the impression that she was a well-respected adversary within the Liberal Party. As it turns out, bit disappointing IMO.

Do you think frustration and anger with the state liberal government will influence the vote here?

I’m disappointed MacTiernan is leaving – she was a brilliant minister and a very talented politician. I also agree she was well respected across the political divide. A real loss to see her go.

W of S
If Labor can win Burt , & Cowan they ought to be very happy indeed. No one is offering WA anything of any meaning.
Zero adjustment of GST collections. Then you would be talking.
BTW that is something that ought to have happened yesterday IMV

@Winediamond, they don’t need to. I doubt either side is offering something of substance to WA re: the GST that will satisfy them enough. Couple the anti-Liberal tide with the decline of the mining boom and Labor are set for a huge corrective swing, likely to be 5 – 6% IMV.

Whilst I suspect it may subside a little bit before polling day, I still think that the Libs are certainly in trouble in Burt, Cowan and Hasluck. It remains to be seen whether the incumbents in the latter two seats can mitigate the damage and whether the lack of an incumbent and fairly safe margin in the former can withstand the inevitable swing.

I expect other seats (Stirling for example) with wildly inflated margins to also return to their more marginal status.

W of S
You seem a little more pessimistic about your side’s chances. Your first post on Hasluck seemed more optimistic.
i do think there is no chance of a surprise, re Stirling, or Canning.

@Winediamond, I still think Hasluck will be a Liberal hold thanks to Wyatt but believe that it is far too tight for comfort. The general mood within the party is equally as pessimistic as my assessment which lead to my conclusion about a surprise in WA. I hope I am wrong of course 😉

Any WA seat that Labor held while Howard was PM is a chance, if the polls here are anywhere near 50-50. Stirling, Swan, Cowan, Hasluck. Canning (the new version) is probably a bridge too far, but as a swap, Burt is a likely Labor gain. 8 federal seats out of 16 may or may not affect the national result, but it will make quite a few state Libs very nervous for next year.

While ostensibly a marginal seat on current boundaries the ALP should hold Perth easily especially when considering the current political climate in WA. With changing demographics and the redistribution I’d expect the Greens to increase their vote to ~15%, possibly higher with the loss of MacTiernan who is a well known and popular MP.

B of P
Very high hopes indeed!!.
50 -50 eh in WA ?? .
What exactly will cause westralians to fall in love with BS ??

@winediamond

Labor’s increase in polling in WA is more a result of a distaste with the state government (up for election in early 2017), not any love of Shorten.

Malcolm
Perth is in no way a marginal seat. It is a solidly labor seat.
It will remain so until the next redistribution when it is carved up, as part of the creation of a new seat in north Perth.

AK
Are you certain that will be a vote- changer on the day ??
We have a very long election campaign to endure.
I fully expect BS to royally stuff it up. So i’d advise everyone not to get too exited !!!
I’ll leave it at that for now.

@winediamond

While the Liberals will most likely win a majority of seats in WA in 2016 (they currently hold 13/16, including notionally holding the new seat of Burt), 2010/2013 were high watermark years for the Liberals, and with an anti-government swing expected, they’d be expected to lose at least a couple.

AK
My point was the anti govt swing hasn’t happened yet. It looks like labor will win Burt, & Cowan ATM. ATM.

I’m just cautiously optimistic, and am very used to my team inexplicably failing. (I am also a Dockers supporter. 😛 ) I’d expect to see Labor win the following: definitely the three they have, probably (redrawn) Cowan and (new) Burt, maybe Swan and Hasluck, and maaaybe one of Stirling or Canning.

Reading down the pendulum doesn’t quite work: Pearce looks more marginal than a couple of Perth metro seats that elected Labor opposition members in the recent past, but it’s been constantly Lib since it was created in 1990. There’s a bit of interference from (a) the Palmer vote in 2013 and (b) the way rural seats swing less than city ones.

And yeah, there’s interference from the old tired state Libs. Even the Lib-leaning local paper gives them a good hard kick sometimes (Alston in yesterday’s West gave that stupid cable car idea both barrels). No more mining boom, no more rivers of money that have been rolling in ever since Howard was supposedly such a good economic manager. (The mess the state Libs have made of our budget mean they can’t use that issue to whack Labor for a long time to come.)

winediamond

I agree that Perth is now a solid Labor seat and was trying to imply that the current margin after redistribution is really quite flattering to the Libs given what has transpired since 2013.

This is even when considering that MacTiernan’s popularity likely minimised the swing against Labor at the last election. However the perception currently in WA is that the Libs are the party that squandered a once in a lifetime mining boom and this will be reflected at the next election.

Malcolm
What exactly was this perceived, once in a lifetime opportunity ??
Who squandered it ??
Which level of govt, & when ??
What ought to have happened ??
BTW i agree that McTiernan carried high hopes, However she was given no opportunity, & could accomplish little in opposition anyway, given she proved unwilling to be a needed agent of change for the ALP.

Bof P
I know nothing of AFL, so i can’t offer any solace, or comfort there. However the Western Force should be good next year, with a new coach !!.
Coaches, & political leaders are like generals. So the most obvious explanation of failure, is poor leadership , tactics, implementation, etc.
The closest comparison i can make with Malcolm, is Macarthur. As PJK famously said to Rudd :Fearless, brilliant, but lacking judgement. I’ll add ruthless, as he/they were/are pretty unconcerned about casualties.
BS makes most of the allied generals of WW1 look thoughtful,intelligent, & enlightened. i refrain from making the case ATM.
More interesting comparisons
Hawke – Rommel (inspirational) Eisenhower (consensual) These combined qualities, made him Australia’s best ever PM.
Howard thought he was a Monash, however he was only a Montgomery !!.
Kennett, & Keating — Patton !!.
Rudd would never have passed the psychological test for the military or survived OTC !!!

there is a 10 to 13% swing against the state govt………. this will help reduce the 58/42 split which has become the norm in WA. ALP plus 2 to 5 seats……….. the 2 rural seats cannot be won by Labor, nor Curtin and Tangey and probably Moore and Pearce…… all others are possible

winediamond

We’re getting off topic but I’ll try and briefly answer your questions. My reading of it is that both federal and state levels of government share basically equal responsibility – both have seem to lack much will towards long term planning. The relatively short terms of most governments and adversarialism of the parties in power obviously doesn’t help this.

There has been a lack of thinking and leadership in regards to what is in the national interest, I would have thought it would have been smart to have seen a more significant part of the mining windfall saved in a sovereign wealth fund for the future as well as investing it in infrastructure, other industries and maintaining strong public services.

The only plan we saw in WA was an assumption that the iron ore price would remain at $150 per ton, and now that it has passed we have large govt deficits and associated cuts to the public sector and the services it provides and the associated knock on effects that has on the rest of the economy. A prudent government would not have led us to this situation.

MacTiernan has always been a bit of a “free spirit” politician she seems to speak her mind and it’s what makes her popular among the electorate but this isn’t something that helps advancement through the ranks of the party, perhaps she was hoping that federal Labor was different?

MacTiernan has always been playin off the things that she’s done, and well she may. Whenever the Libs put up a concept of a promise for maybe building some thoughtbubblething to Ellenbrook (third time’s the charm!), she can just bring the press crew on the train down to Mandurah station and point at it. WA Labor built this last time they were in govt. Then catch another train to Freo. WA Libs closed that line (back in 1979), Brian Burke (in one of his non-crooked phases) re-opened it in 1983. Labor are builders, Libs are wreckers. Say it again until you remember this state’s history.

WA Libs built a bell tower in the late 90’s. How pretty.

B of P
I just don’t know enough of local politics, to respond. I guess i’ll take your word for it.

Malcolm
Thanks for your response I broadly agree with most of it.
There just cannot be any argument about the issue of state vs commonwealth roles responsibilities & funding being the biggest issue.
IMV the inherent conflict of interest (between stat, & fed) is greatest in WA. (Which BTW is why i am a successionist !!!, & i don’t even live in WA !!!).
As i understand it , the libs collected a lot of royalties, & were then penalised through (a lack of) GST distributions, as a result.
So the state, (& govt) had little to gain from any financial probity.
State govt’s will suffer from creating a surplus, or even not running a minor deficit , out of effectively withholding spending, or service delivery. So it is not easy. Imprudence is the most likely outcome, rightly or wrongly. IMV any state govt would have succumbed to this sort of temptation (as you have alluded to). So objectively it is as much a systemic, & structural failure as anything else.
As to projections of mining revenue : ALL govts overestimated receipts, which has lead to deficits everywhere.
It is also inappropriate, & outside a state govt purview to establish wealth funds, that is really a commonwealth responsibility. One i’ll agree has been abrogated horribly since the Future fund was established.
Unfortunately the full consequences of this failure are yet to be appreciated, let alone experienced.
For example the Future Fund now only provisions for half of the commonwealth superannuation liability, as opposed to the full amount in 2007. This is not accounted for in the budget deficit. It ought to be. If a company director tried THAT on, he’d be in gaol !!!.

The Queensland Investment Corporation manages wealth funds for the state and local government doesn’t it? State governments can have pension liabilities just like the Commonwealth does.

kme
Not aware of the QIC. What a great thing to have,
I do hope the evil Commonwealth Equalisation Commission does not penalise QLD for such prudence. I suspect in the end that will happen to some extent. Who had the good foresight to st up the QIC ??.
Unfunded liabilities scare me for my children, & their generation.
It is unconscionable that we leave such an awful negative legacy.

QIC was set up under the Goss government. No idea of the history.

re my post Forrest too is impossible

kme
Thanks . Interesting.

winediamond

It’s an interesting and I think valid point you raise that the current structure of the federation doesn’t seem to reward fiscal responsibility and states end up pushing the limits and when shit hits the fan go cap in hand to the Feds.

The vast majority of West Australians are not succesionists regardless of political persuasion but there is a sense we’re ignored by the rest of Australia partly through distance but mostly as its not perceived to be a state that is crucial to determine the next government. Iron ore has more than halved in price and state government revenue has collapsed yet we still only reeive 3.4% GST of with 11% of the national population.

I think the Libs have given up on Perth, I drove past a billboard in West Perth today promoting Michael Keenan, the member for Stirling, which suggests they’re not particularly confident even in seats that require a 10% swing towards Labor in WA.

Malcolm
WRT to Stirling I’d say if there was any real threat the libs would be acting, as he is a minister. Govt’s are “sensitive” about losing ministers !!!.
Regardless of the polls, & notwithstanding any state govt influence, i remain unconvinced about Shorten. If he wins more than a dozen seats i’d be shocked. The people have to be moved to elect a (particularly new) PM. He just doesn’t have it. I expect him to be cruelly exposed.

i’m glad we can agree about the dismal structure of the federation.

It is a shame that more Westralians are not successionists. It is a valid POV. If it were to be vigorously represented ,it would draw more attention to the inequities of the nation. Thereby pressure would increase for the need , & attainment of real solutions, reforms, & outcomes.
The GST WA receives is a scandal, quite inexcusable.

Interestingly if the Greens had their way there would be a broad based land tax of a couple of %.Not to mention a 25 % wealth / inheritance tax
All state govts would then have heaps of money. However good luck selling that to the punters !!!.
Amusingly most Greens voters are ignorant of this , & most of the other economic policy of the Greens.

@Winediamond you’d be surprised. People said the same thing about Beazley and he won the 2PP and very nearly won the 1998 election. Although I still agree.

Turnbull has done very little and the polls are only 50-50. The moment he actually starts to govern (off the back of the Budget too) he should score a narrow win, that is the whole reason he is going for July. People will think long and hard in the voting booth and will decide against electing Shorten methinks.

As for ministers it is indeed a running sore spot. Losing a minister is an utter embarrassment and indicative of a government with weak MP’s that cannot defend themselves, even if it may be a perfectly likely outcome if they hold a marginal seat – it is more just the losing face if anything.

W of S
IMV these aren’t valid comparisons. The 1998, & 2001 elections were national referendums on the GST. Disgracefully so IMV, as the national interest was clear, & fully vindicated in 2001 .
This is spite of all my lefty friends wailing about JWH, & Tampa etc etc .

If the 2016 is a referendum, it is about senate power (or the abuse thereof ), but i don’t think it really will be for most voters.

Kim Beazley was a kind, affable, likeable pleasant bloke. Highly intelligent too. He was essentially too nice a bloke for the job (of leader). He lacked the necessary forcefulness, to make the changes needed ,to his party, & produce policies attractive to the nation.
BTW PJK would on occasion , reduce Kim to tears, & force him to leave cabinet meetings !!!.
Like for example, Joe Hockey , & Barry O’Farrell, a Nine Fixation ( in the Enneagram) too kind & sensitive to thrive in our (current) political system. Note the similarity in body type .
Speaking of nine fixations as leaders .David Lange ( NZ PM of the 80s ) only succeeded because of bi-partisan support enabling him to have pretty much a census leadership, & govt. Being super intelligent helped too. The overall result was a highly successful, & popular govt only eclipsed by the Key govt.

Shorten in comparison could not be more different. A thoroughly despicable human being IMV. I’ll elaborate further when it’s more timely.

@Winediamond, the thing is though, I doubt that voters very much care about Shorten’s intelligence or lack thereof. They will just make a decision based on anger and derision towards the government.

My prediction: Labor hold, although on these boundaries, one to watch next Liberal landslide. The Liberals’ Jeremy Quinn is very visible here.

I’m a local (g’day from the big red 67), so here’s my junk mail. Two things from the Greens, a few from Labor… all so far are flyers, so someone’s actually walked past my house and personally stuck ’em in my letterbox. There’s also been a few Lib things. Every one personally addressed and looking kinda official, to the point I now recognise that PO Box in Bassendean and bin them on sight. (Except for this one… I was bored.)

The one yesterday (slightly rain-damaged – that’s what ya get calling an election in July) tells me: “you live in one of 14 seats where just a few hundred votes could change the result of this election”. (I wonder where the other 13 are.) It goes onto get stuck into Labor, independents and the Greens (in that order).

The logo up top was the standard blue L, instead of that weird “Turnbull Coalition” thing. Maybe someone told them it looked like the PUP logo from last time?

They’ve also got HTV cards. The lower house one goes much like you’d expect with only five candidates: Greens last, Labor second last, and it’s more likely Colin Barnett will pull a cone live on channel 7 news than the other two getting their deposit back. In the senate: Lib – Nat – cdp – Shooters – LDP – FF. (Lack of capital letters in the last sentence was deliberate.)

Meanwhile, the battle of the shop windows is being won by… PUP! Dio Wang is Chinese and so are a lot of the shops and restaurants round here, so there’s plenty of bilingual posters. The Greens come second, mainly with green chalk on the footpath; the big two have some billboards here and there.

Labor are flashing the cash a bit here. This week’s Perth Voice (the freebie local paper) has a 4 page wraparound which is pretty much one big Labor advert (front page is a big thing about Medicare). Good payday for the Voice.

Winediamond….. you had a good word for Kim Beazley what happened?
actually he should have been WA premier. He would have been better as pm then as opposition leader

This seat is clearly trending Liberal – only a 1.7% swing from 2013.

Not necessarily. There was an inner/outer divide in the major cities across the country at this election. See for instance the Lib successes in Brisbane, Petrie, Reid and Chisholm.

In WA, Fremantle and Stirling had subdued swings to Labor, whilst Curtin swung Lib.

That may be true Mr. Walsh, yes, the Liberals did hold up well in CBDs/inner suburbs. However, the underlying state seats indicate a trend to the Liberals:

Let’s compare the 1996 (LIB 55%) and 2013 (57% LIB) state elections, where the Liberals won a large majority,, namely the districts wholly or partially in Perth.

State seat of Perth – 58% ALP in 1996, 52% LIB in 2013. By far the biggest pro-Liberal trend in federal Perth.
State seat of Maylands – 57% ALP in 1996, 53% ALP in 2013. Smaller trend, although the Liberals did top the primary vote poll in 2013, getting 43% in 2013 as opposed to 37% in 1996.
State seat of Mount Lawley – Hard to do a direct comparison, although much of Mount Lawley pre-2008 was in the seat of Yokine. Comparing Yokine 1996 to Mount Lawley 2013, you get 53% LIB vs 59% LIB.
State seat of Morley – 54.7 LIB in 2013, hard to make a comparison with 1996, as the territory was split between LIB-held Ballajura (51%), Ballajura itself is in Cowan, and Yokine, along with ALP-held Maylands and Bassendean. The D’Orazio effect in 2008 did help the Liberals gain Morley as well. Hard to tell if a trend is going on here, this bit of Perth is more inland suburban, rather than inner-city/riverside suburbs.
State seat of Bassendean: 62% ALP in 1996, 55% ALP in 2013. Another noticeable trend to the Liberals.

Also, federally, Perth’s 2016 result has been the worst for Labor since they re-gained the seat in 1983, when the Fraser government was defeated.

Anton, where do you think the corresponding shift to Labor has happened? There’s a few different things going on… in the 17 years between the elections you’re talking about, there was a major redistribution in 2008, and a decent-sized patch of the outer suburbs simply wasn’t there. (Driving down Ranford Rd in the late 90’s looked VERY different to now.) Labor have clung on to Albany and Collie since 2001, but that can’t be all of it. Meanwhile, some seats in the suburbs swung so much in 2013 that it’s pointless trying to compare them to anything, state or federal. (Southern River, Ocean Reef etc.) And Labor’s vote collapsed up north and in Kalgoorlie, mainly thanks to the Nats. It’s a weird mix.

Thoughts?