NAT 3.1%
Incumbent MP
Kevin Hogan, since 2013.
Geography
North coast of NSW. Page covers the towns of Lismore, Kyogle, Casino, Grafton, Nimbin, Woolgoolga and Yamba.
Redistribution
At the northern end of Page, the seat gained northern parts of Lismore council area, including Nimbin, from Richmond. Page also lost the town of Ballina to Richmond. At the southern end, Page gained a strip of coast from Cowper between Yamba and Coffs Harbour – the previous border was just south of Yamba, but has moved south to be just north of Coffs Harbour. These changes increased the Nationals margin from 2.5% to 3.1%.
History
Page was first created for the 1984 election. The first member for Page was Ian Robinson (NAT), who had previously been member for Cowper since 1963. Robinson was defeated in 1990 by Harry Woods (ALP) after 27 years in federal parliament.
Woods was defeated by former state minister Ian Causley (NAT) at the 1996 election. Wood proceeded to win the by-election for Causley’s former state seat of Clarence and went on to serve as a minister in Bob Carr’s second term.
Causley served in federal Parliament for eleven years, retiring in 2007. The ALP preselected former state upper house MP and advisor to Jose Ramos Horta, Janelle Saffin, while the Nationals preselected former Mayor of Maclean Chris Gulaptis. Despite a 5.5% margin for the Nationals, the ALP won Page on a 7.8% swing.
Saffin was re-elected in 2010 with a swing towards Labor of 1.8% despite a statewide swing to the Coalition, but lost in 2013 to Nationals candidate Kevin Hogan with a 6.7% swing.
Candidates
- Kevin Hogan (Nationals)
- Mark Ellis (Liberal Democrats)
- Anna Ludvik (Animal Justice)
- Kudra Falla-Ricketts (Greens)
- Beth McAlpine (Christian Democratic Party)
- Janelle Saffin (Labor)
Assessment
Page is a key marginal seat, and Labor have found a strong challenger in former two-term MP Janelle Saffin. The northern end of the seat saw big shifts at the state election, with the Nationals barely holding on in Lismore despite a previously-large margin. But Hogan should benefit from a new personal vote which could help him withstand a pro-Labor swing.
Polls
- 56% to Labor – Reachtel commissioned by NSW Teachers Federation, 19 April 2016
- 52% to Labor – Reachtel commissioned by AEU, 13 June 2016
- 54% to Labor – Reachtel commissioned by NSW Teachers Federation, 20 June 2016
2013 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Kevin Hogan | Nationals | 40,088 | 46.7 | +4.2 | 46.8 |
| Janelle Saffin | Labor | 33,336 | 38.8 | -6.9 | 35.9 |
| Desley Banks | Greens | 5,601 | 6.5 | -2.1 | 8.8 |
| Stephen Bruce Janes | Palmer United Party | 4,135 | 4.8 | +4.8 | 5.4 |
| Carol Ordish | Christian Democratic Party | 1,394 | 1.6 | +1.6 | 1.8 |
| Rod Smith | One Nation | 1,381 | 1.6 | +1.6 | 1.2 |
| Others | 0.1 | ||||
| Informal | 4,223 | 4.9 |
2013 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Kevin Hogan | Nationals | 45,134 | 52.5 | +6.7 | 53.1 |
| Janelle Saffin | Labor | 40,801 | 47.5 | -6.7 | 46.9 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Page have been split into six parts. Booths in the three main towns of Lismore, Grafton and Casino have been grouped together. Booths in Coffs Harbour council area and the remainder of Clarence Valley council area have been grouped as “South”. Booths in the remainder of the north have been split into north-east and north-west, with those around Casino grouped as north-west and those around Lismore as north-east.
The Nationals won a 57% majority in the south and 55% in the north west, along with a 52% majority in Grafton and 56% in Casino.
Labor won in the north east with 52.5% and over 55% in Lismore.
The Greens came third, with a vote that ranged widely from 3% in Grafton and Casino to 10% in Lismore and 15% in the rest of the north-east.
| Voter group | GRN % | NAT 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South | 9.7 | 56.9 | 20,216 | 20.1 |
| North-East | 14.8 | 47.5 | 14,348 | 14.3 |
| Lismore | 10.4 | 44.8 | 11,771 | 11.7 |
| Grafton | 3.2 | 52.3 | 8,672 | 8.6 |
| Casino | 3.0 | 56.2 | 6,388 | 6.3 |
| North-West | 8.8 | 55.2 | 5,678 | 5.6 |
| Other votes | 7.7 | 56.2 | 33,559 | 33.3 |
Looking back at state election results the Greens should have a much better result here than last election, similar to the adjoining seat of Richmond.
There’ll be no significant swing to the Greens here due to the popularity of Janelle Saffin with progressive voters. Also the Greens have selected a very young candidate, which I understand came about after some difficulties and lack of interest in candidacy. In 2010 Page had the lowest swing to the Greens anywhere except for seats with high-polling independents.
Although this has been a key seat at every election since 1990 the 2013 campaign seemed to be the most intense ever. I received numerous pieces of direct mail from both major parties (and I mean addressed letters, not unaddressed mail), not to mention the phonebanks and commissioned polling. One piece was a letter from Kevin Hogan pledging to cross the floor to oppose the CSG industry in the electorate, and it’s widely believed that letter was a significant factor in his win. Although still problematic for both parties CSG is unlikely to be as big a factor this time around, especially with all the new territory added in the south.
This is a type of seat where incumbency is HUGELY important. Given the conventional wisdom that a personal vote can add around ~ 5% to a margin I think the Nats would be well-positioned to hold this. Having said that however, a former member running complicates this paradigm somewhat.
To add to that (because for some reason it won’t let me post a longer comment), although the redistribution isn’t that great for Labor, I think Saffin probably does have a good chance of regaining it, especially in the absence of the national anti-Labor sentiment that dominated the 2013 election. This will be the 3rd election where Saffin and Hogan are up against each other, which I’m guessing is a rarity nowadays but I know used to be far more common. I don’t think Hogan has been that high-profile an MP, especially compared with the profile Saffin had. Indeed when he ran in 2013 few people could remember that he’d also been the candidate in 2010.
I also meant to add that following the 2013 election and leading up to the 2015 state election I was also polled several times on the personal approval rating of Janelle Saffin, so there had clearly been someone taking an interest in the potential of her running again from very early on.
I used to live in Grafton, and have correctly predicted the last few elections here. Picking who will win in Page (and Clarence at state level) is relatively simple – the locals want a Government MP who can deliver the goodies. Kevin Hogan is safe as long as the polls point to a coalition victory. If the last Newspoll isn’t an aberration, and it begins to look like Labor will win, then Hogan will be finished. The last thing locals want is an Opposition MP. There’s no partisan loyalty here, it’s all about Government largesse.
The sophomore surge here will be blunted both by the candidacy of the previous incumbent and the major redistribution changes.
It’s amazing the difference between Casino and Lismore, which are only a half hours drive apart – look at the difference in Green vote! Lismore, full of vegetarian pie shops and Casino, “Beef Capital of Australia”.
ReachTELL today has Hogan trailing 2pp in Page.
Individual seat polling is not very accurate. Don’t take any of the polls you are quoting as any sort of gospel.
I think Hogan is in trouble here. The personal vote is neutralised and you can bet your bottom dollar that CSG will play a role in this election, especially given what happened in State Parliament.
I tip an ALP gain here, with the Northern section of the seat being where the swing will be driven.
Sportsbet has this on a knife edge.
Labor and Coalition both on 1.87.
Why would the PM be visiting a Nat seat? No confidence in Barnaby perhaps, which is quite understandable, but methinks this election is going to spring a lot of previously unforeseen surprises.
Lismore and Casino may only be 30 minutes away, but they’re a world apart. Another 40 mins and you’re in Byron, different again.
I can’t call this. Maybe Janelle by less than 1%.
Labor has surged, here, it seems.
Labor 1.55, Coalition 2.35
ReachTEL poll out today Lab 54 Nat 46. Interesting?
Labor has firmed up according to punters, too…
Labor 1.17, Coalition 4.50
Won’t keep tracking unless it gets significantly closer, again.
This seat was always going to go. The Sea-Change/Tree-Change factor in the seat, along with CSG being a constant thorn was going to drive this seat to be strong for Labor in the future.
@Hawkeye definitely agree. Plus with a popular previous incumbent, it was always very likely to fall. I’d count this as an expected Labor GAIN.
I worry about the southern half of the electorate but it is appearing to me as though this is the most confident Labor gain of the election.
Labor look likely to win here….. the Grafton end and the state seat of Clarence is very rural………. suggests the electorate level opinion polls are not accurate……. each seat in this election is an individual contest…… the sum of these will determine the result
My prediction: Page has gone with the nation since 1990, although the area trended away from the Nationals at the state level last state election. At the moment, I wouldn’t be surprised if former Labor MP Janelle Saffin wins back Page.
Prediction: Labor will win
What happened here??? Nearly all of us got this one horribly wrong, Saffin hardly made a dent.
Easy to explain, Wreathy. The locals followed the media and betting markets and noted that everyone was saying the Turnbull Government would be easily returned (supposedly!). Ergo, Kevin Hogan a certainty. I used to live in the Clarence Valley – all the locals care about is having a Government MP – they don’t care about the party. (They’ll be kicking themselves, though, if by some miracle Shorten forms a minority government)
I must confess to being very perplexed that the ALP didn’t win here, only a 1% swing, as it really seemed that it would fall to the previous member.
The Nats did well to hold this.
Indeed. What did we miss?