LIB 15.7%
Incumbent MP
Trent Zimmerman, since 2015.
Geography
Lower North Shore of Sydney. The seat covers the north shore of Sydney Harbour from Hunters Hill to Kirribilli and extends as far north as Chatswood. Main suburbs are North Sydney, Willoughby, Lane Cove, Chatswood and Hunters Hill. The seat covers the entirety of Hunters Hill and Lane Cove local government areas, almost all of Willoughby (except for Castle Cove and parts of Chatswood) and a majority of the City of North Sydney (except for Neutral Bay).
Redistribution
North Sydney shifted slightly south-east, gaining Cremorne from Warringah and lost Castle Cove and part of Chatswood to Bradfield. These changes cut the Liberal margin from 15.9% to 15.7%.
History
North Sydney is an original federation electorate, and has never been held by the ALP, being held by the Liberal Party and its predecessors with the exception of two terms when it was held by an independent.
The seat originally extended much further than the immediate lower north shore of Sydney. The original seat covered all of the north shore and extended further north to cover the Central Coast and reached Morisset on Lake Macquarie. The seat rapidly retreated back to Pittwater by the 1906 redistribution. The 1922 redistribution saw the creation of Mackellar covering Manly and the Northern Beaches, and North Sydney retreated to most of the area it covers today around North Sydney, Chatswood and Lane Cove.
The seat was first won by Dugald Thompson, originally of the Free Trade Party and then the Commonwealth Liberal Party. Thompson served as a minister in George Reid’s government from 1904 to 1905, and retired in 1910. The seat was won in 1910 by George Edwards, who, like Thompson, had moved from the Free Trade party to the Liberal party. Edwards had previously held the seat of South Sydney from 1901 to 1906.
Edwards died in 1911, and the seat was won by Granville Ryrie (LIB). Ryrie was a Boer War veteran, and was promoted to Brigadier-General at the beginning of the First World War and served in battle at Gallipoli and in Sinai and Palestine. Ryrie continued to serve as Member for North Sydney and became a minister under Billy Hughes in 1920. Ryrie moved to the new seat of Warringah in 1922 and remained in Parliament until 1927.
North Sydney was won in 1922 by then-Prime Minister Billy Hughes. Hughes had previously served as Labor member for West Sydney from 1901 to 1917, when he became the Nationalist member for Bendigo. Hughes had become Prime Minister in 1915 and had left the ALP in 1916 over the issue of conscription, and created the new Nationalist party with the support of fellow ALP defectors and his former conservative opponents.
At the same election when Hughes moved to North Sydney, his party lost its overall majority in the House of Representatives. The Country Party decided to support the Nationalists, but animosity between Hughes and Country Party leader Earle Page saw Hughes resign as Prime Minister and Stanley Bruce take over.
Hughes went to the backbenches and remained there until 1929, when he crossed the floor and brought down the Bruce government. He served as an independent for two years before joining with his former party and another group of Labor rebels, led by Joseph Lyons, to form the United Australia Party.
Hughes served as a minister once more from 1934 to 1937, after first becoming a minister in 1904. He became leader of the United Australia Party in 1941 and led the party, barely, into the 1943 election. Hughes held the seat of North Sydney until the 1949 election, when he moved to the new seat of Bradfield, and stayed in Parliament until his death in 1952.
The ensuing by-election was won by William Jack, who remained a low-profile, yet locally popular, backbencher until his retirement in 1966.
The seat was won in 1966 by Bill Graham, another Liberal who had previously held the marginal seat of St George from 1949 to 1954 and from 1955 to 1958. Graham remained in North Sydney until 1980.
Graham was succeeded by John Spender, who was defeated at the 1990 election by Ted Mack, an independent who had previously been Mayor of North Sydney and member for the state seat of North Shore. Mack had previously been a member of state Parliament from 1981 until 1988, when he resigned just before he qualified for a parliamentary pension in protest against excesses of public office. He retired at the 1996 election for similar reasons.
The seat was won in 1996 by Joe Hockey, and he held the seat for the next nineteen years. Hockey was a junior minister in the Howard government from 1998 to January 2007, when he was elevated to Cabinet as Minister for Workplace Relations.
Hockey became a senior member of the Opposition frontbench following the 2007 election and became Shadow Treasurer in February 2009. Hockey served as Treasurer from 2013 until 2015. Hockey moved to the backbench when Tony Abbott was replaced as Prime Minister, and resigned from Parliament soon after.
The 2015 by-election was won by Liberal candidate Trent Zimmerman.
Candidates
- Stephen Ruff (Independent)
- Sharon Martin (Christian Democratic Party)
- Arthur Chesterfield-Evans (Greens)
- Trent Zimmerman (Liberal)
- Eddy Ku (Family First)
- Peter Hayes (Labor)
- Daniel Leahy (Liberal Democrats)
- James Coffey (Science Party)
Assessment
North Sydney is a safe Liberal seat.
2013 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Joe Hockey | Liberal | 53,991 | 61.0 | +1.3 | 60.8 |
| Peter Hayes | Labor | 17,727 | 20.0 | -2.1 | 20.1 |
| Alison Haines | Greens | 13,579 | 15.4 | -0.2 | 15.5 |
| Raheam Khan | Palmer United Party | 1,493 | 1.7 | +1.7 | 1.7 |
| Maureen Guthrie | Christian Democratic Party | 892 | 1.0 | +1.0 | 1.0 |
| Angus McCaffrey | Democratic Labour Party | 766 | 0.9 | +0.9 | 0.8 |
| Others | 0.0 | ||||
| Informal | 5,031 | 5.7 |
2013 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Joe Hockey | Liberal | 58,274 | 65.9 | +1.8 | 65.7 |
| Peter Hayes | Labor | 30,174 | 34.1 | -1.8 | 34.3 |
2015 by-election result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Trent Zimmerman | Liberal | 36,690 | 48.2 | -12.8 |
| Stephen Ruff | Independent | 14,303 | 18.8 | +18.8 |
| Arthur Chesterfield-Evans | Greens | 11,959 | 15.7 | +0.4 |
| Maryann Beregi | Independent | 2,613 | 3.4 | +3.4 |
| William Bourke | Sustainable Population Party | 2,189 | 2.9 | +2.9 |
| Silvana Nero | Christian Democratic Party | 1,917 | 2.5 | +1.5 |
| Sam Kennard | Liberal Democrats | 1,591 | 2.1 | +2.1 |
| Lou Pollard | Arts Party | 1,400 | 1.8 | +1.8 |
| Tim Bohm | Bullet Train For Australia | 964 | 1.3 | +1.3 |
| Luke Freeman | Cyclists Party | 815 | 1.1 | +1.1 |
| Kerry Bromson | Voluntary Euthanasia Party | 815 | 1.1 | +1.1 |
| James Jansson | Future Party | 513 | 0.7 | +0.7 |
| Robert James Marks | Palmer United Party | 352 | 0.5 | -1.2 |
| Informal | 5,658 | 6.9 |
2015 by-election two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Trent Zimmerman | Liberal | 45,848 | 60.2 | |
| Stephen Ruff | Independent | 30,273 | 39.8 |
Booth breakdown
Polling places have been split into three areas. Those booths in the North Sydney and Willoughby council areas have each been grouped together, while those in the Lane Cove and Hunters Hill council areas have been merged together as one area.
At the 2013 federal election, the Liberal Party’s primary vote ranged from 57.8% in North Sydney to 61.9% in Lane Cove-Hunters Hill.
The Labor primary vote ranged from 19.6% in Lane Cove-Hunters Hill to 20.6% in Willoughby. The Greens vote ranged from 14.7% in Willoughby to 18.8% in North Sydney.
At the 2015 by-election, the Liberal primary vote ranged from 45.5% in North Sydney to 48.2% in the other two areas.
Independent candidate Stephen Ruff came second, with a vote ranging from 18.2% in Lane Cove-Hunters Hill to 19% in North Sydney. The Greens vote ranged from 15% in Willoughby to 18% in North Sydney.
2013 election booth breakdown
| Voter group | LIB % | ALP % | GRN % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Willoughby | 60.9 | 20.6 | 14.7 | 23,678 | 26.8 |
| Lane Cove-Hunters Hill | 61.9 | 19.6 | 15.1 | 19,679 | 22.2 |
| North Sydney | 57.8 | 20.3 | 18.8 | 17,955 | 20.3 |
| Other votes | 61.9 | 20.0 | 14.3 | 27,145 | 30.7 |
2015 by-election booth breakdown
| Voter group | LIB % | IND % | GRN % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Willoughby | 48.2 | 18.9 | 15.1 | 23,877 | 31.2 |
| Lane Cove-Hunters Hill | 48.2 | 18.2 | 16.8 | 20,058 | 26.2 |
| North Sydney | 45.5 | 19.0 | 18.1 | 14,168 | 18.5 |
| Other votes | 50.5 | 18.6 | 13.8 | 18,500 | 24.2 |
Ben
This is My electorate. The blue “61” in the NE corner appears to be my local booth at Willoughby Park . Is there a reason why it would have changed size, like possibly the voting numbers ???.
That’s Willoughby North. Shouldn’t have changed much in size. I think you’re confused by the small booth north of it which appears on the by-election map because that map isn’t adjusted for the redistribution – that booth is now in Bradfield.
Ben
Yeah . i looked at that, but it still seemed to change in size. Thanks for checking though
I was living here in 2007. The campaign was very vigorous, and it was clear that the Liberals were worried about losing the seat to Mike Bailey. It would have been interesting to see what sort of swing would have occurred here if Abbott was still leader.
MM
Mike Bailey never had the slightest chance. Such an incredible lightweight.
TBH i don’t recall this or any other campaign being remotely vigorous. We in N Sydney are just taken for granted. However at a state level with Willoughby being undecided for 10 days, a while back. Well that is a whole different story…..
I remember being really surprised that the ALP managed to slash the margin to 5% or so.
Zimmerman should hold this easily, without the pressure from Ruff the Greens should come second and i’d expect that to happen in Warringah and Bradfield as well.
WD, you didn’t see those rather tragic-looking Young Liberals waving “Vote For Joe” signs to the morning traffic the day before the election? It kind of summed up how the 2007 election was heading….
MM
Most Young Liberals are rather tragic, looking , & otherwise !!!. But no , i missed that.
W of S
IN point of fact the ALP did little. N Sydney has a resilient indie, & Green vote. The ALP vote will continue to wither.
Ben
Sorry, but a straight up complaint. Your maps here don’t show Castle Cove. This means that the AEC’s division of Willoughby LGA looks understated.
AS you may have gathered, i’m a bit aggro about this decision.
L96
You might be amused that i buttonholed Zimmermann, pretty intensely outside Woolies Northbridge, at the by-election.
I told him straight up, that not only was i not voting for him, but that i would be putting the libs LAST. (I lied that it would be the first time in my life !!!) He seemed very concerned , & asked why ??.
I said it was that the by -election was over 1 issue alone. Politicians breaking their contract , & forcing needless by-elections. Additionally i demanded that all such by-elections be funded out of the member’s personal retirement funds.
Until this is addressed & legislated, he will not be getting my vote, or anyone else i can convince of the same.
He seemed a little taken aback at how impassioned, & emphatic i was. He is in for an even more intense shock at our next meeting !!!!…..
@winediamond – I don’t show Castle Cove because it’s not in North Sydney.
Interesting to see that Stephen Ruff is running again, he also drew the top spot on the ballot.
With a bit of a dive in Turnbull’s approval, and the proximity of the by-election to the current election could help Ruff. I doubt there has been a lot of time for Zimmerman to garner a personal vote and maybe Ruff is still in the minds of voters in the area.
This will definitely be interesting to watch. With Labor in the race, we might see votes come off Ruff… or we might see votes come off Liberal. If Labor’s vote eats further at the Liberal vote base, it could make enough space for Ruff to win the seat.
I don’t see Labor doing anywhere near well enough to win the seat – there’s a reason why Labor hasn’t ever won this seat, despite being a federation electorate. Indeed, I think Labor would be clever to angle towards staying behind Ruff, and directing preferences to him.
Glen – really hard to see Ruff increase his PV from the by-election at 18pc. what factors are at play now that weren’t then? Particularly bearing in mind that was a by-election…
I would say the shine has come off Turnbull, when the by-election took place he was still riding high
Moderate – I don’t see Ruff increasing his PV. I see Labor possibly taking PV off Zimmerman, while Ruff holds steady, with Greens preferences keeping Ruff ahead of Labor, and then Labor preferences potentially pushing Ruff into the lead.
Picture it this way:
Liberal: 38%
Labor: 19%
Greens: 15%
Ruff: 18%
Other: 10%
Greens preferences will probably tilt towards Ruff over Labor, and CDP and FF preferences will strongly go to the Liberals. Science Party preferences will probably lean towards Ruff, too. So when it’s down to 3 candidates, I’m picturing
Liberal: 46%
Labor: 26%
Ruff: 28%
And from there, Ruff gets most of Labor’s preferences, pushing him over the line.
This is assuming that Labor’s vote eats into the Liberals votes, not the Ruff votes. If it eats into the Ruff votes by any significant amount, then the Liberals will hold the seat.
You are predicting another 10% decline after 12.8% at the bi election?
You aren’t accounting for even a very small benefit from incumbency, or just a little of that 12.8% going back.
It’s just fanciful
Even under your first hypothetical if Greens and Labor preferences leaked at 20% that would already put him on 45% before including a much higher rate of preferences from others.
Andrew – incumbency usually comes from having had 3 years to build the profile after election, being able to claim accomplishments, etc.
Zimmerman was elected in a by-election, about half a year ago. He barely got to sit in the chamber before the election was effectively called.
And the by-election came only a few months after Turnbull overthrew Abbott, at a time when Shorten’s “Preferred PM” was 14%, Turnbull’s was at 60%, Turnbulls’ net satisfaction rating was +22 and Shorten’s was -38, general numbers had the Coalition at 45% primary vote and Labor at 33%, and the two-party-preferred was 53% to the Coalition.
Now, Shorten’s Preferred PM is at 30%, Turnbull’s is at 45%, the net satisfaction ratings are hovering around -16 for both leaders, Labor’s primary vote is at 35% and the Coalition’s is at 40%, and Labor has been slightly ahead on 2PP in most polls.
There’s good reason to think that there’ll be a swing against the Coalition in this seat…
… and all of that is before you factor in that Labor didn’t even field a candidate in the by-election. While some of Ruff’s vote probably would have gone to Labor if they had a candidate, the turnout was down by about 12000, some of which would be people who would only vote Labor. And there are surprisingly many people who believe that voting for a minor party is “throwing away your vote” (because that’s what happens in America due to the plurality system they use), so I wouldn’t be surprised if quite a few also voted for Zimmerman.
And that’s why I suggest that there COULD be a 10% decline in the Liberal vote at this election. Note the emphasis there – “COULD”. I’m not saying it *will* happen, just that it *might*, and if it does, Ruff will get the seat, in my view. Alternatively, Ruff gets about 10% of the vote and the Greens vote drops to about 13%. I’d expect Labor to be close to 20% either way.
I’d expect Ruff to outpoll Labor, which wouldn’t be a tough ask. He might get some stiff opposition from the Greens, although alternatively i’d think that Ruff would have a better chance than Labor of taking votes away from the Libs, frankly a lot of Lib voters in this seat would be turned off by Labor and having a high profile independent would be more appealing to them.
The whole point of a by-election in many people’s eyes is to send a message. Now that they have, I seriously doubt that there would be a further swing away, if anything a swing back would be more expected.
You are giving the possibility that there ‘COULD’ be a 28% reduction in primary vote for the Liberal party between 2013 to 2016 general elections. Not even that, but you didn’t even bother to consider that preferences will leak.
Even Indi was just over 7% (and might be another 7% this time) with about 30% of votes still leaking back to Mirabella, and North Sydney is not Indi.
Your hypothetical ‘COULD’ and *might* be crazy.
Sorry typo 23% not 28%
I am happy not only to back Zimmerman to win the seat but to increase the 2pp count from the by-election.
The fact that the articulation of the case for Zimmerman losing takes over 300 words and 6 paragraphs says a little about its prospects of success……
Generally speaking independents (unless they win) do best at the first election they contest, and do best at by-elections when the choice is clearly not about who governs the country, but rather who represents the seat. Ruff’s vote will most likely decline, and the Liberal primary vote at worst will probably stay about the same. The seat is interesting with the extra competition, but Zimmerman should comfortably hold on.
As for an actual prediction I’d say approximately the same on two candidate preferred as the bi election with an error margin of a couple of percentage points either way based on the candidate that ends up in 2nd spot. As for who will end up in 2nd spot I genuinely have no idea as it will depend on the quality of the preferencing and which of the three challengers is ahead on 1st preferences, but could be Ind, Grn or Lab.
Ruff might actually do a little better here than I expected. If the two party pref vote on the night was just the simple version then its still possible (especially with prepolls and postals etc) for him to get into second place. That might give him a better preference flow than Labor received.
I dont know how the HTVs here read, but from the VTR it looks like some of his vote did come from the Liberals (looks like about 6 to 9%) then most of it went back to them on preferences.
Might be possible if he gets above Labor to get up to 42% TPP or better which isn’t too bad.