ALP 9.4%
Incumbent MP
Sharon Claydon, since 2013.
Geography
The seat of Newcastle covers most of the City of Newcastle, and a small part of the Lake Macquarie council area. Major suburbs include Newcastle, Hamilton, Merewether, Lambton, Kotara, Adamstown, Mayfield, Maryland, Wallsend and Waratah.
Redistribution
Newcastle shifted south, gaining Maryland and Wallsend from Charlton, and losing sparsely populated northern parts of Newcastle to Paterson. These changes increased the Labor margin from 8.8% to 9.4%.
History
Newcastle is an original federation electorate, and has been held by the ALP for its entire history. Indeed, the seat has only ever been held by five people in 110 years.
The seat was first won in 1901 by David Watkins, a former coal-miner and state member for the seat of Wallsend. Watkins held Newcastle for decades until his death in 1935. He was succeeded at a 1935 by-election by his son David Oliver Watkins. Watkins junior held the seat for another twenty-three years, retiring in 1958.
After being held for 57 years by members of the Watkins family, Newcastle was won in 1958 by Charles Jones, then the Lord Mayor of Newcastle. Jones went on to serve as Gough Whitlam’s Minister for Transport from 1972 to 1975. He retired in 1983, and was succeeded by Allan Morris.
Morris held the seat for eighteen years, and was succeeded at the 2001 by former school principal Sharon Grierson, who held the seat for the next twelve years.
Labor’s Sharon Claydon was elected in Newcastle in 2013.
Candidates
- Sharon Claydon (Labor)
- David Compton (Liberal)
- John Mackenzie (Greens)
- Stuart Southwell (Democratic Labour)
- Karen Burge (Drug Law Reform)
- Rod Holding (Independent)
- Milton Caine (Christian Democratic Party)
Assessment
Newcastle is a safe Labor seat.
2013 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Sharon Claydon | Labor | 37,391 | 43.7 | -4.2 | 44.2 |
| Jaimie Abbott | Liberal | 29,632 | 34.7 | +3.3 | 33.1 |
| Michael Osborne | Greens | 10,258 | 12.0 | -3.5 | 11.5 |
| Yegon McLellan | Palmer United Party | 3,518 | 4.1 | +4.1 | 5.2 |
| Milton Caine | Christian Democratic Party | 1,091 | 1.3 | -0.5 | 1.8 |
| Susanna Scurry | Independent | 1,026 | 1.2 | +1.2 | 0.9 |
| Michael Chehoff | Australia First | 922 | 1.1 | +1.1 | 0.8 |
| Rod Holding | Independent | 674 | 0.8 | +0.8 | 0.6 |
| Zane Alcorn | Socialist Alliance | 616 | 0.7 | -0.3 | 0.6 |
| Lawrence Higgins | Australian Independents | 367 | 0.4 | +0.4 | 0.3 |
| Others | 1.0 | ||||
| Informal | 5,653 | 6.6 |
2013 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Sharon Claydon | Labor | 50,298 | 58.8 | -3.7 | 59.4 |
| Jaimie Abbott | Liberal | 35,197 | 41.2 | +3.7 | 40.6 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three parts: central, east and west.
Labor’s two-party-preferred vote ranged from 58.7% in the east to 63% in the west.
The Greens primary vote ranged from 8% in the west to 16% in the east.
| Voter group | GRN % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| East | 16.4 | 58.7 | 24,035 | 24.8 |
| Central | 11.8 | 61.7 | 23,805 | 24.6 |
| West | 8.0 | 62.8 | 22,257 | 23.0 |
| Other votes | 9.8 | 54.4 | 26,800 | 27.7 |
Looking at the numbers; this seat seems like the NSW equivalent of Corio – centred in a large regional city about an hour outside of the state capital, with safe TPP for Labor but with a relatively low primary vote, a handful of booths where the Libs outpoll Labor on a TPP basis, and a cluster of booths where the Greens poll well (albeit they poll better in Newcastle then they do in Corio) relative to the rest of the electorate.
Ben,
The 2PP table is wrong. Obviously copied from Banks.
My prediction: Easy Labor hold.