LIB 20.9%
Incumbent MP
Sharman Stone, since 1996.
Geography
North-western Victoria. Murray covers all of Greater Shepparton, Strathbogie and Campaspe council areas and most of Moira and Loddon council areas. The largest towns in Murray are Shepparton and Echuca.
History
Murray was created at the 1949 election. It has always been held by Coalition parties. It was held by the Country Party and National Party until 1996, when it was won by the Liberal Party.
The seat was first won in 1949 by the Country Party’s John McEwen. McEwen had previously held Echuca from 1934 until it was abolished in 1937, and then held Indi from 1937 until 1949.
He served as a minister in the Coalition government from 1937 to 1941. He then became a minister in the Menzies government in 1949. McEwen became Country Party leader in 1958.
When Robert Menzies retired in 1966 McEwen became the most senior figure in the government, with tremendous influence over the Country Party’s larger ally, the Liberal Party.
When Prime Minister Harold Holt disappeared in late 1967, McEwen briefly served as Acting Prime Minister, and he vetoed the choice of the Treasurer, William McMahon, leading to Senator John Gorton moving to the House of Representatives and becoming Prime Minister. McEwen retired from Murray in 1971.
The 1971 by-election was won by Bruce Lloyd, also of the Country Party. Lloyd served as deputy leader of the National Party from 1987 to 1993, and retired in 1996.
At the 1996 election, the Liberal Party stood Sharman Stone, and the Nationals stood John Walker. The ALP candidate was pushed into third place, with Stone polling 43% of the primary vote, and winning on preferences.
Stone has held Murray for twenty years, winning the seat seven times.
Candidates
Sitting Liberal MP Sharman Stone is not running for re-election.
- Damian Drum (Nationals)
- Andrew Bock (Independent)
- Ian Christoe (Greens)
- Duncan McGauchie (Liberal)
- Nigel Hicks (Independent)
- Fern Summer (Independent)
- Jeff Davy (Citizens Electoral Council)
- Diane Teasdale (Independent)
- Robert Danieli (Country Party)
- Alan Williams (Labor)
- Yasmin Gunasekera (Rise Up Australia)
Assessment
In normal circumstances, Murray would be a safe seat for the Liberal Party. With the retirement of the Liberal MP, the seat will be contested by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals. It seems likely that the Liberal Party will retain the seat, but we don’t have solid information to judge the race.
2013 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Sharman Stone | Liberal | 54,490 | 61.4 | -2.8 |
| Rod Higgins | Labor | 18,403 | 20.7 | -3.1 |
| Damien Stevens | Greens | 3,485 | 3.9 | -2.4 |
| Catriona Thoolen | Palmer United Party | 2,964 | 3.3 | +3.3 |
| Michael Bourke | Katter’s Australian Party | 2,423 | 2.7 | +2.7 |
| Tristram Chellew | Sex Party | 2,337 | 2.6 | +2.6 |
| Alan Walker | Family First | 1,589 | 1.8 | -1.8 |
| Wendy Buck | Independent | 1,176 | 1.3 | +1.3 |
| Fern Summer | Bullet Train For Australia | 986 | 1.1 | +1.1 |
| Raymond Hungerford | Rise Up Australia | 563 | 0.6 | +0.6 |
| Jeff Davy | Citizens Electoral Council | 316 | 0.4 | -0.2 |
| Informal | 5,992 | 6.8 |
2013 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Sharman Stone | Liberal | 62,882 | 70.9 | +1.3 |
| Rod Higgins | Labor | 25,850 | 29.1 | -1.3 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into five areas, based on the five local government areas that cover the electorate.
The Liberal Party’s two-party-preferred vote ranged from 64% in Strathbogie to 76% in Campaspe.
| Voter group | LIB 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Greater Shepparton | 66.5 | 26,249 | 29.6 |
| Campaspe | 76.4 | 15,914 | 17.9 |
| Moira | 73.6 | 10,519 | 11.9 |
| Strathbogie | 63.9 | 4,842 | 5.5 |
| Loddon | 73.2 | 3,256 | 3.7 |
| Other votes | 71.7 | 27,952 | 31.5 |
Two-party-preferred votes in Murray at the 2013 federal election
Lib vs Nat fight – but this seat is one to watch if a strong local independent gets up.
Barnaby Joyce’s comments about SPC will not be quickly forgotten here. Additionally the independent member for Shepparton has obtained a hospital upgrade that has been long promised by the conservatives but not delivered….which is only encouraging this region’s recent inclination to vote independent.
With Sharman Stone retiring and the success of Cathy McGowan in Indi, if ever there was a chance for a rural independent to get up, this is it. Depends on their campaign there though.
Does anyone here have any personal links to the seat?
I would doubt an independent could get up now, it’s just a bit too late for someone to get their name around the electorate. I don’t think their’s any doubt about the Nats getting up here. Drum represents the area at the state level and grew up in the area.
@L96 – oh I agree it’s too late now. They would have to have been campaigning much earlier to get the name recognition and get a decent level of support. I would certainly be interested to see if the Nationals can win this back of the Liberals.
Perhaps someone is running and we just haven’t heard about it. Seems no-one knew about the independent in Shepparton till election night either. I’d be very suprised, if, after their success in Indi, the ALP have not organised an ‘independent’ here. Its such an obvious low-hanging fruit (pardon the pun)
If the Nationals won this seat, that’s an extra seat for them. Obvious, I know but… coupled with John McVeigh winning Groom as expected, the Nats should get extra members in cabinet after all. I’m not too sure how the LNP allocates newly elected members but I think McVeigh was a National before the merger, so would likely sit in their party room.
This area is Nationals rather than Liberal at state level. I remember reading that the Nats candidate in 1996 wasn’t that good, and that’s what handed the seat to the Liberals (a bit like Farrer in 2001). But Damien Drum has a high profile as a local state MP, and also of course as an ex-AFL player and coach.
Drum is the favourite with Sportsbet at $1.60.
And to go slightly off topic… Fremantle’s 0-9 start to this year’s AFL season might give Damien Drum a sense of deja vu. That’s exactly the point at which he was sacked in 2001.
It is the Labor party that holds the key to this seat. If Labor can staff booths in the larger centres and the members follow the how to vote card, their preferences will decide the outcome. I can’t imagine either the Nats or the Libs winning without Labor preferences.
Which leads to an interesting question about preferences in Batman and Wills – do the libs preference Labor, Greens or leave it open? Might depend on what the Labor party does in places like Murray (or Higgins or any other Victorian seat where Labor is likely to finish third)
at a state level Shepparton is held by an independent
Shepparton Deputy Mayor Fern Summer, who was the Bullet Train for Australia candidate in 2013, is running as an independent.
http://www.mmg.com.au/local-news/shepparton/summer-to-stand-as-independent-1.110408
Also mentioned in other media reports is Allan Williams as the Labor candidate, and another independent, Andrew Bock.
Alan with one l actually for the Labor candidate. Apologies.
I wouldn’t be surprised if this is last time Murray will be contested redistribution in 2017
Mad Max, good point – the odd shape of the electorate is a dead giveaway. On the issue of preferences, it is hardly going to determine the result. I can think of a number of recent instances where the ALP have preferenced Libs ahead of Nats only for the Nats to prevail (twice in Mallee, Riverina, Lyne, Page)
Sportsbet has this close – between Liberals and Nationals.
Liberals 1.50, Nationals 2.50
Labor in a distant third with 26.00
A point of interest – in QLD, where nation-wide HTVs for absentee voters are distributed by the LNP, its the Liberal who is the official ‘LNP’ preferred candidate. This causes angst in regional areas where most LNP members are former Nationals.
Liberals have strengthened against the Nationals, here.
Liberals 1.30, Nationals 3.00
Will no longer track unless it gets closer again.
Glen – thanks for the heads up. Just put some $ on the Nats. Great return.
My prediction: With Sharman Stone retiring after 20 years, Murray is a wide open contest between the Liberals and Nationals. A close race will be expected, if I had to pick, I’d go for National Damian Drum, ex-AFL coach and incumbent member of the Victorian Legislative Council.
I don’t know how accurate the odds mentioned already here are…
http://www.sportsbet.com.au/blog/sportsbet-media/drum-beats-mcgauchie
Nats $1.60 Libs $2.10
BJA – the blog post you linked to was written in mid-May. The odds I’ve mentioned are current right now, on Sportsbet… with a small tweak (Liberals are now 1.35 rather than 1.30) – didn’t mention it before because it’s not close enough to track changes. If Nationals odds come down to 2.50 or better, I’ll start tracking it again.
SORRY very sorry
This has tightened, funnily enough (given what the most recent discussion was):
Liberal 1.50, National 2.50
The betting market has changed.
(National) Damian Drum $1.70, (Liberal) Duncan McGauchie $1.95
A very interesting result awaits…
This will be my last time updating the Sportsbet numbers, and… this has rapidly strengthened for the Nationals.
Nationals 1.70, Liberals 1.95