Moreton – Australia 2016

ALP 1.6%

Incumbent MP
Graham Perrett, since 2007.

Geography
Southern Brisbane. Moreton covers suburbs on the southern side of the Brisbane River to the south of the centre of Brisbane, including Sunnybank, Runcorn, Eight Mile Plains, Acacia Ridge, Coopers Plains, Rocklea, Salisbury, Moorooka, Oxley, Corinda, Graceville and Fairfield.

History
Moreton is an original federation electorate. For most of its history it has been held by the Liberal Party and its predecessors, who held the seat from 1906 until 1990, but the seat was a bellwether seat from 1990 until 2013, when Labor retained the seat despite losing government.

Moreton was won in 1901 by independent labour candidate James Wilkinson, a former member of the colonial Legislative Assembly. Wilkinson was re-elected as an independent in 1903, and rejoined the ALP in 1904.

Wilkinson lost Moreton in 1906 to Anti-Socialist candidate Hugh Sinclair. Sinclair held the seat for over a decade, representing the Commonwealth Liberal Party and the Nationalist Party until his retirement in 1919.

Sinclair was succeeded in Moreton by former state MP Arnold Wienholt, also a Nationalist. Wienholt only held the seat for one term, retiring in 1922.

The seat was won in 1922 by Nationalist candidate Joseph Francis. Francis held the seat for over three decades. He served as a minister in the first term of the Lyons government from 1932 to 1934, and again served as a minister from the election of the Menzies government in 1949 until his retirement in 1955.

Moreton was won in 1955 by Liberal candidate James Killen. Killen was on the right wing of the Liberal Party, and held the seat for the next 29 years. At the 1961 election the Menzies government barely held on, and Killen’s seat of Moreton was the closest result. Indeed, Killen only held on due to Communist Party preferences leaking away from the Labor candidate. Killen served as a minister in the Gorton government from 1969 until 1971 but was dropped by William McMahon when he became Prime Minister.

Killen served as Minister for Defence in the Fraser government from 1975 until 1982, when a reshuffle saw him moved into a more junior role for the final year of the Fraser government. He retired in 1983 after the defeat of the Fraser government, triggering a by-election.

The ensuing by-election was won by Liberal candidate Donald Cameron. Cameron had previously held the seat of Griffith from 1966 to 1977, and then the seat of Fadden until the 1983 election, when he was defeated. He returned to Parliament as Member for Moreton and held it until the 1990 election, when he was defeated by Labor candidate Garrie Gibson, ending 84 years of Moreton being held by conservative parties.

Gibson held the seat until the 1996 election, when he lost to Liberal candidate Gary Hardgrave. Hardgrave served as a junior minister from 2001 until January 2007, when he was removed from the ministry in a reshuffle. Hardgrave lost the 2007 election to Labor candidate Graham Perrett.

Perrett’s 6% margin was cut to just over 1% in 2010, but he gained a 0.4% swing towards him in 2013, despite Labor losing power nationally.

Candidates

Assessment
Moreton is quite a marginal seat, but if Labor bounces back in Queensland, Perrett is likely to retain the seat.

2013 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Malcolm Cole Liberal National 34,824 42.2 -1.2
Graham Perrett Labor 31,932 38.7 +2.7
Elissa Jenkins Greens 8,234 10.0 -5.9
Jeremy Davey Palmer United Party 4,147 5.0 +5.0
Carolyn Ferrando Family First 1,250 1.5 -1.9
Chris Mallcott Katter’s Australian Party 1,070 1.3 +1.3
Hayden Muscat Future Party 481 0.6 +0.6
Bruce Fry Rise Up Australia 303 0.4 +0.4
Wayne Grunert Citizens Electoral Council 208 0.3 +0.3
Informal 4,912 6.0

2013 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Graham Perrett Labor 42,503 51.6 +0.4
Malcolm Cole Liberal National 39,946 48.5 -0.4
Polling places in Moreton at the 2013 federal election.
Polling places in Moreton at the 2013 federal election.

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three areas:

  • North-East – Annerley, Fairfield, Moorooka, Moorvale, Rocklea, Tarragindi, Tennyson, Wellers Hill, Yeronga.
  • South – Acacia Ridge, Coopers Plains, Eight Mile Plains, Kuraby, Macgregor, Robertson, Runcorn, Salisbury, Sunnybank, Warrigal.
  • West – Chelmer, Corinda, Graceville, Oxley, Sherwood.

The ALP won majorities in the south (53.3%) and the north-east (56.6%). The LNP won 54.1% in the west.

The Greens polled over 10%, with a big variation between a high Greens vote at the northern end of the seat and a much lower vote further south.

Voter group GRN % ALP 2PP % Total votes % of votes
South 6.5 53.3 29,473 35.7
North-East 15.4 56.6 16,516 20.0
West 13.2 45.9 11,106 13.5
Other votes 9.1 48.8 25,354 30.8
Two-party-preferred votes in Moreton at the 2013 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Moreton at the 2013 federal election.
Greens primary votes in Moreton at the 2013 federal election.
Greens primary votes in Moreton at the 2013 federal election.

41 COMMENTS

  2. Perrett should hold here, there’s quite a good green vote here as well, so i’d expect that go up to 2010 levels.

  3. This is my pick as the QLD dark horse. A very unlikely one to be sure. Sooner or later demographic change has to bite labor here.
    My old school mate scaper lived here for decades. He met Perret many times & judged him as a complete idiot, & fool.
    scaper was totally gobsmacked, absolute shocked, when Perret was re- elected, with an increased majority. I did enjoy reminding him of all his predictions.

  4. L96
    Remember QLD is different. Anything can happen. It may be getting too expensive affluent, or suburban for the “basket weavers”. So the green vote might change very quickly.
    There are some very affluent ares in this electorate, & there are getting bigger quickly.

  5. I also scoff at Perrett, but I doubt the Libs will get this. Their best chance was in 2013 and they still failed with an established candidate. In fact, I doubt they will pickup any seats nationwide outside of Victoria (besides Fairfax) and that’s if they’re lucky.

  6. Yeah the only seats I could see the Libs picking up is Chisholm and Fairfax, and honestly the previous is a near certainty.

  7. It depends on the polls. If the Liberals get back to where they were a few months ago, I would expect Moreton to be very competitive. Especially without a Queensland-based Labor leader.

    From the booth maps, this looks like a weird seat. It’s got two Liberal leaning parts at either end, and a strongly Labor voting slice through the middle.

  8. @MM very unlikely. I mean I would love for the Coalition to breeze by but at this point out from the election, it is highly implausible to think that they will be able to get back to where they were a few months ago.

    The likely outcome is a narrow Coalition victory meaning that Moreton is probably out of the picture IMO.

  9. MM
    Brisbane is different to other capital cities. It’s affluent areas are in all directions. Do you have a view where upward mobility is manifesting fastest ??

  11. Ben: This sentence of the first paragraph in the History section is out of date: “…but since 1990 it has become a bellwether seat, being won by the party that won the election nationally.”.

  12. This is my seat. Wine diamond, I would agree with your friend’s assessment – I too was amazed that Perrett was reelected in 2013. He’s clueless, though admittedly Gary Hardgrace wasn’t great either.

    I agree the demographics here are moving in favour of the Liberals and Greens. This will be exacerbated by future redistribution a as the inner city population increases at the expense of the suburbs.

    I think if the Liberals want to win here, there’s two area they need to focus: Yeerongpilly/Tarragindi and Sunnybank/Kuraby. In these areas you have large numbers of swing voters who are getting wealthier and benefiting from the demographic change here.

    For Labor to strengthen its margin, it needs to make way in Macgregor and Eight Mile Plains. These locations have high numbers of students, blue collar workers and low income households who should be Labor’s bread and butter.

  13. Macca -GC
    Thanks for that. A local perspective is always invaluable. I’m surprised that you don’t hold Hargreave is higher esteem. What did i miss ??
    Re the 2018 redistribution, iv’e no idea which direction Moreton will be pulled. However the changes will be decisive, i’ll wager.
    BTW Isn’t there a 2 lane bridge over the Brisbane River that needed duplication 20 years ago ??. How has this not happened ??

  14. Hardgreave wasn’t a terrible member, but he was nothing special. He just didn’t get that much done considering he was the member for 11 years

    The Walter Taylor Bridge is narrow, but widening it would require widening access roads and that’s never going to happen. Better to provide improved public transport, and I think most of the northern half of the seat would agree with that.

    In terms of candidates at this election, I think the NXT candidate could be influential. They’ll probably take most the PUP vote and possibly a bit more, particularly from the BCC Tennyson Ward area. Also, Nick Monsour running for the LNP is Campbell Newman’s brother-in-law. Surely the family links to developers and the reputation of the last state government would seriously damage the LNP’s chances

  15. Macca- GC
    You really have to wonder sometimes, don’t you ???. I wonder who’s idea it was to pre-select Nick Mansour ???.
    Maybe the LNP are trying to help XPT. ??
    Feels like an episode of “Hogans Heroes” !!!.

  17. “This was an impressive result by Perrett in the circumstances of 2013.”

    Kevin Rudd, the man he railed against saved his political career. Perrett will hold again this year.

  18. My sources state the LNP is focusing resources on this seat. Apparently much more so then Bonner or Forde. I think that suggests they are confident about holding those two seats and are shifting to attempting to win Moreton.

  19. QLD Observer.
    That is a mistake !!!. With the candidate they have, they are no chance. Pollbludger mentioned ONE recent poll showing QLD standing apart. However the LNP would be well advised to take nothing for granted in Brisbane, as well as Bonner.

  20. Winediamond

    Today’s Courier mail has details of a Galaxy poll that shows Liberals only losing Petrie and Capricornia. My gut feeling is that there will be greater losses in Queensland than these two seats. My gut feeling is that Moreton, Longman and Brisbane are all likely to drop to ALP and Leichardt and Maranoa are also possibilities for different reasons.

    Un fortunately Galaxy poll is only a state wide poll and I suspect that swings will not be uniform and that consequently we need greater detail from polls especially about minor party votes.

    Andrew Jackson
    apjackson@hotkey.net.au

  21. Maranoa! That won’t be falling. Wide Bay or Hinkler are more likely and they not likely.

  22. A Jackson
    Agreed. We need a few more polls.

    Your gut feeling seems to be a worst case scenario for the LNP. This would also take the country to hung parliament territory.

    Do you have a reasoning for these outcomes ???

  23. @AJ I agree with QO, the ALP has exactly 0 chance in Maranoa and will not be picking up Wide Bay either. Out of all those 3, Leichardt is more likely but even then, I doubt they have a shot while Entsch is still there.

  24. Wreathy

    MY comment re Maranoa was badly worded what I meant was that LNP may lose Maranoa. IT will not fall to ALP but may fall to Katter. Just as the adjoining seat New England may fall from Liberals grasp.

    THe error that I made and no one picked up in this post is that Moreton can not fall to ALP it is ALP.

    AEC describes this seat as Inner metropolitan but this is inaccurate. Moreton is like a sandwich LNP Bread on the East and West with a central slice of ALP voters. It is a seat that verges from inner city Annerley Fairfield to outer suburbs such as Sunnybank and Eight Mile Plains. Katter’s web site has Shan Ju Lin standing and this electorate has always had a large migrant population. As a migrant myself and DLP candidate in Moreton on 1972 I can assure you that most of the poll workers who handed out HTV for me were from “Captive Nations’ Czech’s in Salisbury, Poles in Coopers Plains and Ukrainians all over the electorate. I have met Shan Ju and she is fully integrated into the Australian community and will pick up votes that previously went to Liberal Party. Her strong position on Defence of Australia from Red Chinese takeover will resonate with the redundant workers of Hutton’s at Oxley, GMH Acacia Ridge Dulux at Rocklea. The Market employees at Rocklea know that their jobs are threatened by the Major Supermarkets direct negotiation with the farmers. In effect two of the three zones of the three parts of the Moreton sandwich are good grounds for Katter.

    Perrett’s continued presence in Canberra will not just depend upon Preferences but also on which minor parties nominate.

    Andrew Jackson
    apjackson@hotkey.net.au

  25. I don’t think that campaigning on “evil Red China taking over Australia” is going to go down too well in Moreton, given it contains much of the heart of Brisbane’s North-East Asian community….

  26. I doubt the Libs are a chance here. They have blown out to $8.50 on sportbet in Moreton. Graham Perrett in my view will likely retain. Liberals are more worried about retaining the ones they already hold in QLD not looking for further gains with the exception of Fairfax.

  27. Mark Mulcair

    As a previous Officer of the Friends of Free China I am fully aware that Sunnybank is Brisbane’s China town. The majority of Australia’s Chinese community are escapees from Red China some are migrants but many of them are in fact true refugees fleeing persecution. None of them want Australia to be taken over by Red Chinese monetary or military imperialism and none want to return to the disgraceful wage rates that the Chinese Mainland economy is built on. Additionally Sunnybank is also a haven for upwardly mobile Vietnamese refugees who were true refugees from a totalitarian dictatorship.

    It is amazing how experiencing dictatorship can have a mind altering attitude to the Freedoms that we enjoy in Australia.

    New Australian’s from North East Asia have fully integrated into Australia and are a part of our society.

    Andrew Jackson
    apjackson@hotkey.net.au

  28. You guys are nuts. Perrett has got Moreton locked up. If he can buck the trend of a big national swing against the ALP in 2013, there’s no contest this time around.

  29. Moreton is now out to the Liberals at $12.00. Moreton hasn’t been mentioned by the media as vulnerable to Labor, maybe Griffith has, but not Moreton.

  30. My prediction: Graham Perrett is clearly a popular MP, getting a swing to him in 2013, and should hold on again. The north of the seat in particular is becoming stronger for the LNP though, and Moreton will remain a key marginal for years to come.

  31. This seat is completely line ball now, realistically it should have fallen in 2010 or 2013. A combination of demographics and Turnbull appealing to these voters more than Abbott puts this in play.

  32. This seat is completely line ball now, realistically it should have fallen in 2010 or 2013. A combination of demographics and Turnbull appealing to these voters more than Abbott puts this in play.

  33. Are you serious, QO? Perrett, a quite popular member, was able to get a swing TO him in 2013, and you think that, in an election swinging towards Labor, it’s going to go the other way? On the basis of… what, exactly? I can’t see any indication that either leader has campaigned in Moreton, Labor is saying that they’re confident about Moreton, and not a single poll has indicated a reason to be concerned about Moreton.

  34. I would refer you to the Labor internal polling as mentioned by the Courier. The Labpr source says they are worried about this and quotes a 3.5% swing to the libs in Petrie. Shorten has overreached this week and the tide is now going out. I expect this will hollow out the Labor primary. In most Brisbane seats this will minimise the swing or see a reverse swing to the LNP.

    The opposite will occur from Hinkler to Leichardt. Large third party votes and a swing away from the LNP.

    Longman is also in the swing heavily to Labor camp, maybe Blair.

  35. Courier Mail makes claim, doesn’t provide actual numbers.

    Call me skeptical, but I’ve read the Courier Mail more than enough to know that they don’t even know how to write a non-partisan article. They’ve never been subtle about their pro-LNP bias.

    And a Courier Mail article claim is untrustworthy when faced with physical evidence. Labor would have pivoted immediately to a focus on seats like Moreton if such a swing were actually found.

    So either Courier Mail is trying to beat up a non-story, or Labor is trying to scare people into voting for Labor by suggesting that there’s some swing that hasn’t otherwise been seen.

    Let’s leave aside the fact that Labor would have had no reason to poll Moreton prior to this supposed shock result, and thus there would be no reason for Galaxy to be calling Moreton residents.

    The article also seems to be contradictory, first talking about how Labor could even lose Moreton, then talking about how Labor is throwing everything at Flynn, which had a 6.5% margin to the LNP in 2013. There’s just no way that Flynn swings to Labor, but Labor loses Moreton.

  37. @QA indeed. It would be nice if they broke down the cities even further, then we could really tell how the parties are going.

  38. Q Observer
    If the the LNP had ANY other candidate than Newman’s brother-in law. there might be a chance-, but they do not.

  39. @Glen, actually Turnbull was at the Rocklea Markets in Moreton as one of the first stops of the campaign.

  40. Be interesting to work out the 2PP in Brisbane as a whole after the election. According to my rough estimate, the LNP won about 51.5% or so of the 2PP in 2013.

    If the Libs do improve on that based on Turnbull’s popularity, then it is credible to see Moreton falling. Of course, we can’t know until after the election by which time it is irrelevant XD

  41. I still think Lilley is more likely of being gained by the LNP (probably more of hope), in the same way that the council wards swung away from Labor.

    I think Blair might swing to the LNP as well, Harding has been more visible in the QT (local paper) this time around I think, although it might be her campaign team writing in.

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