LIB 14.4%
Incumbent MP
Kevin Andrews, since 1991.
Geography
Eastern suburbs of Melbourne. Menzies covers the entirety of Manningham council area as well as a northern part of Maroondah council area. Suburbs include Bulleen, Croydon Hills, Doncaster, Donvale, Park Orchards, Templestowe and Warrandyte.
History
Menzies was created as part of the expansion of the House of Representatives at the 1984 election. It has always been held by the Liberal Party for its short history.
The seat was first won in 1984 by Liberal candidate Neil Brown. Brown had previously held the marginal seat of Diamond Valley on two occasions, holding it from 1969 to 1972 and 1975 to 1983. He had served as a minister in the Fraser government from 1981 to 1983. Brown was Deputy Leader of the Liberal Party from 1985 to 1987, and retired in 1991.
The Menzies by-election in 1991 was easily won by Liberal candidate Kevin Andrews, with no Labor candidate standing. Andrews was a strongly conservative backbencher, and pushed through a private members’ bill in 1996 overturning the Northern Territory’s euthanasia laws. Andrews has been re-elected eight times.
Andrews was appointed as a junior minister in 2001 and was promoted to Cabinet in 2003. He was originally responsible for implementing the Workchoices policy after the 2004 election, and then served as Minister for Immigration.
Andrews moved to the backbench after the 2007 election, but returned to the frontbench after Tony Abbott was elected leader in late 2009. He served as a minister in the Abbott government, but was sacked after Malcolm Turnbull replaced Abbott as Prime Minister in 2015.
Candidates
- Tony Hulbert (Animal Justice)
- Ramon Robinson (Independent)
- David Clark (Family First)
- Kevin Andrews (Liberal)
- Richard Cranston (Greens)
- Adam Rundell (Labor)
- Jay Franklin (Voluntary Euthanasia)
- Stephen Mayne (Independent)
Assessment
Menzies is a safe Liberal seat.
Polls
- 61% to Liberal (vs ALP) – Reachtel commissioned by Stephen Mayne, 13 June 2016
2013 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Kevin Andrews | Liberal | 52,290 | 58.9 | +5.3 |
| Manoj Kumar | Labor | 22,788 | 25.7 | -6.5 |
| Richard Cranston | Greens | 7,663 | 8.6 | -2.1 |
| Agostino Guardiani | Palmer United Party | 2,353 | 2.7 | +2.7 |
| Andrew Conlon | Family First | 1,917 | 2.2 | -1.4 |
| Ramon Robinson | Independent | 1,287 | 1.5 | +1.5 |
| Phil Baker | Rise Up Australia | 508 | 0.6 | +0.6 |
| Informal | 3,987 | 4.5 |
2013 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Kevin Andrews | Liberal | 57,235 | 64.5 | +5.8 |
| Manoj Kumar | Labor | 31,571 | 35.6 | -5.8 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three areas: east, central and west.
The Liberal Party’s two-party-preferred vote ranged from 61.8% in the west to 64.7% in the east.
| Voter group | LIB 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Central | 62.1 | 26,798 | 30.2 |
| East | 64.7 | 17,206 | 19.4 |
| West | 61.8 | 14,968 | 16.9 |
| Other votes | 67.8 | 29,834 | 33.6 |
Two-party-preferred votes in Flinders at the 2013 federal election
Comfortable Liberal win.
The only thing remarkable about Menzies is that along with Hotham its one the few seats in Victoria that regularly reports falling monthly enrollment figures. Currently, it is on track to be the seat with the greatest voter shortfall ….which it should achieve within 24 months (all things being equal).
This area has really firmed up for the Liberal party over the years, to the point where it is now the safest Liberal seat in urban Melbourne. It seems to have become home to the New Rich and affluent migrants, and there are some massive brick palaces out the back of Doncaster and Templestowe. Areas like Bulleen apparently had more of a Labor vote, and you can see that the margins are much closer in the West.
Sandbelter, Menzies is just not the sort of seat where population growth can happen. Doncaster is undergoing some intensive apartment development, but a lot of the seat is either affluent McMansion suburbia or semi-rural green wedge that’s protected from development. It’s not like they are going to build 20 story apartment towers in Park Orchards or Warrandyte!
Hotham I would actually expect longer term to see its decline reverse, as the older industrial/brownfield areas get slowly re-developed into new housing.
Agreed regarding Menzies. The lack of public transport stymies it.
Hotham – quite a lot of infill on the Glen Eira with ‘side by side”s in Bentleigh East and to a lesser extent Cheltenham – and the population is still falling, The big industrial sites are actually in Bruce in Mulgrave/Monash Uni Notting Hill.
Hotham has Keysborough and Moorabbin industrial estate (although there a block on Centre road that is being redeveloped this seems to be struggling as property prices in the Eastern half are too low to make redevelopment feasible) but there are both too far from public transport to be feasibly redeveloped for another ten years (sorry that’s my day job speaking). Additionally, council guard the revenue its gets from zoning these areas jealously so it will take a long time to get rezoning through, (though I would take a long term punt on the Moorabbin industrial estate as its has some seriously funk coffee shops, furniture stores and the best French and Italian bakery in Melbourne…very much reminds me of Fitzroy and Richmond in the 1980’s)
The state government is very clear: “Infill” is targeted for the Cities of Port Philip, Stonnington, Glen Eira and Bayside with continuing pressure placed on Melbourne, Yarra, Moreland and Maribyrnong. This were the infill pressure, land values and property prices come together to allow the factory to unit conversions you described.
But Hotham is better known for its smelly tips.
Ben
Please give me an exemption from the comments policy. I really hate this bloke .
There are only 2 reasons he still draws breath
1/ i don’t have a fatal illness
2/ i believe in Karma !!!
WD, there are plenty of lunatic political websites out there if you want to wish death or illness onto MPs you don’t like. You’re really not making yourself look good with this sort of stuff.
MM
I was kidding.
Having said that 20 years ago i was pretty enraged over his private members bill , for the NT.
Every libertarian fibre / cell in my body !!!. I don’t think iv’e ever felt so invaded, or controlled by any other politician, or political action.
For me, as a 9 fixation, feeling controlled is like kyrptonite !!!.
How do people rate Stephen Mayne`s chances?
He has some profile, with all his municipal, state and corperate political activities.
He is of the sort of small l liberal who could do well in such a seat.
He apparently has Green preferences ahead of the ALP, meaning if he also gets ALP preferences (which the ALP would be mad not to give him) and a decent primary vote (anything over a bit over 20%), he could win.
I would rate Menzies as a seat to watch on election night.
His opponent being the arch-conservative and key Abbott ally Kevin Andrews does help his case.
Given Mayne’s previous patchy electoral performances I imagine he’ll get under 10% unless he’s got some well organised grassroots campaign out and about knocking on doors, etc that we don’t know about. Mayne is known to the political class but the average person on the street has never heard of him I’d bet.
Mayne has no chance.
@TtFaB an interesting notion, but unlikely to the point of fantasy.
I find it difficult to believe that due to Andrews’ perceived conservatism, the voters of Menzies would be opposed to him. In reality methinks, the voters of Menzies are quite conservative themselves and therefore would have no qualms with Andrews and his beliefs.
Mayne`s target demographic is the small l liberal vote. Won`t vote left wing but not socially conservative. His task would be easier if Abbott was still leader but he still is in with a chance against Andrews.
@TtFaB the harvest will be small and lean IMO.
He’d be better off running somewhere like Kooyong then.
Mayne seems to be running a serious campaign.
http://www.maynereport.com/articles/2016/06/03-2142-6718.html
I believe that Mayne is a Menzies local, that is where he is a local councilor.
Correction, Mayne was a councilor in Manningham 2008-2012 and has been a City of Melbourne councilor since 2012.
Wow his campaign Facebook page has 60 likes.
According to Pollbludger, Mayne apparently commissioned a poll here that found virtually no change; Andrews ahead by over 60+ of the 2PP vote.
As Wos said, this is not really a small-l Liberal area.
As far as I can tell, the 2PP is Lib versus ALP and no primaries are shown and thus we cannot see how well Mayne is doing. He only needs part of the Liberal vote, in combination with parts of the Green ALP and other votes and the vast majority of their preferences, to win.
If Mayne runs third then that two party preferred is spot on.
Well his primary would have to be at least a couple of percent, if not more, bellow the Greens or a gap between him and the ALP of the Greens vote or greater for him not to come second because The Greens are directing preferences to him ahead of the ALP and presumably the ALP are preferencing him ahead of the Liberals, so he could win from third on primaries.
@TtFaB if he wins I will eat my hat.
You should have a tasty hat prepared, just in case.
Mayne on 7% of the vote according to Kevin Bonham, with Andrews winning on primaries (51%).
Wreathty’s hat is safe…..
Kevin’s prediction turned out to be spot-on. Lucky, hat-eating would not have been fun XD
Menzies is conservative so no point suggesting the voters would not vote for Kevin Andrews if they understood his conservative beliefs they wouldn’t vote for him. Wreathy of Sydney is spot on!