LIB 11.8%
Incumbent MP
Russell Broadbant, since 2004. Previously Member for Corinella 1990-1993, Member for McMillan 1996-1998.
Geography
South-eastern Victoria. McMillan covers parts of Victoria stretching from the south-eastern fringe of Melbourne to the Latrobe Valley. The seat stretches from Pakenham in the west to Moe in the east, and stretches down to the coast. McMillan covers the entirety of Baw Baw and South Gippsland council areas, as well as parts of Cardinia, Bass Coast and Latrobe LGAs. The seat covers the outer Melbourne suburb of Pakenham, and the towns of Warragul, Moe, Wonthaggi, Leongatha and Foster.
History
McMillan was first created in 1949. The seat has mostly been held by conservative parties, although since the 1980s the ALP has won the seat on a number of occasions.
The seat was first won by Geoffrey Brown of the Liberal Party in 1949. Brown won a three-cornered contest on Country Party preferences. The Country Party occasionally would contest the seat throughout the 1950s and 1960s, but never managed to overtake the Liberal Party. Brown was reelected in 1951 and 1954 but died in 1955 before the election.
The seat was won at the 1955 election by Alexander Buchanan, also a Liberal. Buchanan held the seat for seventeen years without taking ministerial office before losing the Liberal Party’s endorsement in 1972.
Buchanan stood as an independent in 1972, and preferences from the DLP and Buchanan allowed Country Party candidate Arthur Hewson to leapfrog the official Liberal candidate and defeat the ALP candidate on Liberal preferences.
Hewson was reelected in a fierce contest in 1974, when the Liberals stood Ronald Dent against him despite a coalition agreement, and Hewson narrowly defeated Dent on primary votes before overtaking the ALP on preferences.
Hewson was defeated by Liberal candidate Barry Simon in 1975, and the Nationals never came close to winning McMillan again. Simon held the seat until 1980, when the ALP’s Barry Cunningham won it.
Cunningham held the seat throughout the 1980s, losing to John Riggall (LIB) in 1990. Riggall was defeated by Cunningham in 1993, and Cunningham was defeated by Russell Broadbent in 1996.
Broadbent had previously held the neighbouring seat of Corinella for one term from 1990 to 1993, and Corinella had been abolished at the 1996 election.
Broadbent was again defeated in 1998 by Christian Zahra, a 25-year-old ALP candidate. Zahra was made a shadow Parliamentary Secretary after the 2001 election, and was considered to have a promising career, before losing to Broadbent in 2004.
Broadbent managed to win re-election in 2007 after developing a reputation for rebelling against the Howard government’s immigration policies, and won again in 2010 and 2013.
Candidates
- Donna Lancaster (Greens)
- Kathleen Ipsen (Australian Christians)
- Norman Baker (Rise Up Australia)
- Jennifer McAdam (Animal Justice)
- Jim McDonald (Liberal Democrats)
- Nathan Harding (Family First)
- Chris Buckingham (Labor)
- Russell Broadbent (Liberal)
Assessment
McMillan was a key marginal as recently as 2004, but has trended towards the Liberal Party, and it is now reasonably safe.
2013 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Russell Broadbent | Liberal | 47,316 | 50.4 | +1.3 |
| Anthony Naus | Labor | 23,537 | 25.1 | -10.7 |
| Malcolm Mckelvie | Greens | 7,157 | 7.6 | -2.1 |
| Matthew John Sherry | Palmer United Party | 4,380 | 4.7 | +4.7 |
| David John Amor | Katter’s Australian Party | 2,262 | 2.4 | +2.4 |
| Benjamin Staggard | Sex Party | 2,168 | 2.3 | +2.2 |
| Luke Conlon | Family First | 1,893 | 2.0 | -1.2 |
| Andrew Kis-Rigo | Democratic Labour Party | 1,641 | 1.8 | +1.8 |
| John Parker | Independent | 1,245 | 1.3 | +1.3 |
| Ross Fisher | Country Alliance | 822 | 0.9 | +0.9 |
| Leigh Gatt | Independent | 695 | 0.7 | -1.4 |
| Norman Baker | Rise Up Australia | 627 | 0.7 | +0.7 |
| Gary Patton | Senator Online | 209 | 0.2 | +0.2 |
| Informal | 6,118 | 6.5 |
2013 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Russell Broadbent | Liberal | 58,095 | 61.8 | +7.6 |
| Anthony Naus | Labor | 35,857 | 38.2 | -7.6 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into five areas, which reflect local government boundaries.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in four out of five areas, with a vote ranging from 53.9% in Bass Coast to 67.8% in South Gippsland. Labor won 57% in Latrobe.
| Voter group | GRN % | LIB 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Baw Baw | 8.8 | 65.5 | 16,130 | 17.2 |
| Cardinia | 6.1 | 59.6 | 14,771 | 15.7 |
| South Gippsland | 9.2 | 67.8 | 14,242 | 15.2 |
| Latrobe | 4.9 | 42.9 | 8,148 | 8.7 |
| Bass Coast | 12.8 | 53.9 | 3,996 | 4.3 |
| Other votes | 7.1 | 63.9 | 36,665 | 39.0 |
Two-party-preferred votes in McMillan at the 2013 federal election
Labor’s vote has really withered away in the Latrobe Valley, at state and federal level. Even a decade ago, Moe and Newborough (the “Latrobe” booths) were reliably 70% Labor. The blue-collar working base seems to have declined, and there was apparently a damaging split in the local ALP during the 2000s that saw rebel candidates running against Labor, etc. It’s significant that in 2007 and 2010, which were really good years for Labor in Victoria, this seat barely swung. Neighbouring Gippsland actually swung TO the Coalition in 2010.
Pakenham in the far west is increasingly being swallowed by suburban development, and would probably fit better in Latrobe these days. Labor could potentially turn those booths red if they had a good result in Victoria, but the rest of the seat is solid Liberal farming country.
It’s funny. The AEC basically sealed Christian Zahra’s fate ahead of the 2004 federal election by dividing Latrobe Valley between McMillan and Gippsland. It soon ceased to matter because of the collapse in the previously strong Labor vote there.
Morwell and Narracan were surprise Labor losses in 2006. Particularly for the Bracks government, which had famously come to power on the back of better than expected electoral strength in the regions.
Regional areas tend to suffer from lag. Working class folk whom I presumed would be Labor die-hards, I’ve witness champion liberal policies and free market economics. It’s as if the message from the boom years of the early naughties got delayed by a decade.
Things seem to be swinging back from my observation, but whether it’s enough to make any form of dent I couldn’t say at this stage.
If not, I expect the next one in three years to be where it it’s swings more widely.