Mayo – Australia 2016

LIB 12.5%

Incumbent MP
Jamie Briggs, since 2008.

Geography
Parts of South Australia to the south and east of Adelaide. Mayo covers the Adelaide Hills and the coast of South Australia from Lake Alexandrina to the southern edge of Adelaide, as well as Kangaroo Island.

History
Mayo was first created in 1984 as part of the expansion of the House of Representatives. The seat has always been held by the Liberal Party, although it has always been a high-profile target for minor parties.

The seat was won in 1984 by Alexander Downer, son of former cabinet minister Alec Downer and grandson of former premier Sir John Downer. He retained the seat safely in 1987 but was challenged by the Democrats in 1990, with the minor party polling over 20%. Downer retained the seat with a 6% margin.

A redistribution and a fall in the Democrats vote saw him retain the seat easily in 1993 and 1996. In 1998, the Democrats ran John Schumann, best known as lead singer of the band Redgum. Schumann achieved over 22% of the primary vote and reduced Downer’s two-party margin to 1.7%, the closest the Democrats ever came to winning a House of Representatives seat.

Another favourable redistribution in 2001 helped Downer win re-election, and he was untroubled at the 2004 and 2007 elections. Downer had served a disastrous year as Leader of the Opposition from 1994 to 1995 and served as Foreign Minister for the entirety of the Howard government from 1996 until 2007. After the defeat of the Howard government in 2007, Downer moved to the backbench and retired in 2008 to serve as United Nations envoy to Cyprus.

The ensuing by-election was contested between Liberal candidate Jamie Briggs and Greens candidate Lynton Vonow, as the ALP did not stand a candidate. The Greens polled 21%, and the Liberal vote dropped to 40%. After preferences, Briggs won 53% of the vote, and retained the seat by a slim margin.

Jamie Briggs was re-elected in 2010, with a slight 0.3% swing compared to the 2007 election.

Candidates

• Glen Dallimore (Labor)
• Rebekha Sharkie (Nick Xenophon Team)
• Luke Dzivinski (Liberal Democrats)
• Nathan Daniell (Greens)
• Jamie Briggs (Liberal)
• Bruce Hicks (Family First)

Assessment
On paper Mayo is a safe Liberal seat, but it is a key target for the Nick Xenophon Team, who polled over 28% in the Senate in Mayo in 2013.

It remains to be seen how well NXT can do in a lower house seat, but if they can overtake Labor they could benefit from Labor and Greens preferences and possibly threaten Briggs.

Polls

• 39.6% to Liberal, 23.5% NXT, 18.3% Labor, 10.7% Greens, 4.4% undecided – Reachtel commissioned by GetUp, 16 May 2016
• 42% to Liberal, 38% NXT, 9% Labor, 7% Greens – Newspoll, 13-15 June 2016

2013 result

2013 two-party-preferred result

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into six areas, based on local government boundaries. Five groups cover all of the polling booths in a single council area: Adelaide Hills, Barossa, Kangaroo Island, Mount Barker and Onkaparinga.

Those in Alexandrina, Victor Harbour and Yankalilla council areas have been grouped together as ‘South’.

Over one-third of ordinary votes were cast in the Adelaide Hills, with just under a third cast in the south of the seat.

The Liberal two-party-preferred vote ranged from 60% in Mount Barker and Onkaparinga up to 67.6% on Kangaroo Island.

Nick Xenophon’s Senate vote ranged from 21% on Kangaroo Island to 34.4% in the Barossa.

The Greens vote ranged from 11% in the south and the Barossa to 17.8% in the Adelaide Hills.

Election results in Mayo at the 2013 federal election
Click on the ‘visible layers’ box to toggle between two-party-preferred votes, Greens primary votes and Senate votes for the Nick Xenophon group.