LNP 22.3%
Incumbent MP
Bruce Scott, since 1990.
Geography
Southwestern Queensland and the Darling Downs. Maranoa covers a large part of southern Queensland, stretching from Toowoomba council area (although not the city of Toowoomba itself) along the NSW border, all the way to the South Australian and Northern Territory borders. Major towns include Kingaroy, Nanango, Warwick, Dalby and Roma.
History
Maranoa is an original federation electorate, covering rural parts of southern Queensland. The seat was first held by the ALP, but has been held by the Country Party and its successors since 1921, only losing Maranoa at one election.
The seat was first won in 1901 by the ALP’s James Page. Page held the seat until his death in 1921.
The 1921 by-election was won by James Hunter, standing for the newly-formed Country Party. Hunter served as a minister in the Lyons government from 1934 to 1937, and retired in 1940.
Maranoa was won in 1940 by the ALP’s Frank Baker, a former school teacher and father of former MP Frank Baker Jr, who had died in 1939. The elder Baker held Maranoa for one term, losing to the Country Party’s Charles Adermann in 1943. Adermann retained Maranoa in 1946 before moving to the new seat of Fisher in 1949. He served as a minister from 1958 until 1967, and retired in 1972.
The Country Party’s Charles Russell won Maranoa in 1949, but fell out with his party in 1950 and contested the seat as an independent in 1951, losing to the Country Party’s Wilfred Brimblecombe. Brimblecombe held the seat until his retirement in 1966.
James Corbett won Maranoa for the Country Party in 1966, holding it until 1980. He was succeeded in 1980 by Ian Cameron, also of the National Country Party.
Cameron retired in 1990, and the National Party’s Bruce Scott won the seat, and he has held it ever since, now as a member of the Liberal National Party.
Candidates
Sitting Liberal National MP Bruce Scott is not running for re-election.
- David Kerrigan (Labor)
- Myfanwy Schenk (Family First)
- Katherine Hompes (Greens)
- Sherrilyn Church (Rise Up Australia)
- Luke Arbuckle (Country Minded)
- Rick Gurnett (Katter’s Australian Party)
- David Littleproud (Liberal National)
- Lynette Keehn (One Nation)
Assessment
Maranoa is a very safe LNP seat.
2013 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Bruce Scott | Liberal National | 51,622 | 57.4 | -8.1 |
| Nick Cedric-Thompson | Labor | 14,649 | 16.3 | -3.7 |
| John Bjelke-Petersen | Palmer United Party | 12,506 | 13.9 | +13.9 |
| Rowell Walton | Katter’s Australian Party | 5,027 | 5.6 | +5.6 |
| Grant Newson | Greens | 2,762 | 3.1 | -2.1 |
| John Spellman | Family First | 2,481 | 2.8 | -1.3 |
| George Mousley Clouston | Rise Up Australia | 861 | 1.0 | +1.0 |
| Informal | 4,124 | 4.6 |
2013 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Bruce Scott | Liberal National | 64,987 | 72.3 | -0.6 |
| Nick Cedric-Thompson | Labor | 24,921 | 27.7 | +0.6 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into six areas. Polling places in Dalby and Roma council areas were grouped by local government areas. Balonne and Goondiwindi council areas have been grouped together as ‘South’.
Polling places in Toowoomba council area have been split into two areas. Those in the south have been combined with those in Southern Downs as “South-East”. Those in the north have been combined with South Burnett as “Kingaroy-Crows Nest”. The remainder of the booths have been combined as “West”, in an area that makes up a majority of the seat’s geographical area but a small minority of the population.
The LNP’s two-party-preferred vote ranged from 66% in Kingaroy-Crows Nest to 76.3% in Roma.
The Palmer United Party’s vote ranged from 10.3% in the west to 22.4% in Kingaroy-Crows Nest.
| Voter group | PUP % | LNP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South-East | 13.6 | 69.2 | 16,164 | 18.0 |
| Kingaroy-Crows Nest | 22.4 | 65.9 | 11,477 | 12.8 |
| Dalby | 14.4 | 75.1 | 11,254 | 12.5 |
| West | 10.3 | 67.7 | 6,549 | 7.3 |
| South | 10.6 | 74.1 | 5,825 | 6.5 |
| Roma | 13.1 | 76.3 | 4,259 | 4.7 |
| Other votes | 12.4 | 75.0 | 34,380 | 38.2 |
Election results in Maranoa at the 2013 federal election
Click on the ‘visible layers’ box to toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Palmer United Party primary votes.
Look at that 100% LNP booth – I’m guessing the safest booth for any party in all of Australia
That’s the 29 votes of Bringalilly, where even the sole Greens voter preferenced the LNP.
http://results.aec.gov.au/17496/Website/HousePollingPlaceFirstPrefs-17496-6121.htm
My prediction: Easy LNP hold.
One Nation could make it into the 2pp count here. They’re only 1.2% behind Labor, and of the others, KAP, FF and Rise Up (9.1% between them) have them ahead of Labor on their HTV cards. The Greens (3.5%) obviously have Labor ahead, while Countryminded (2.2%) don’t seem to have a HTV.
Obviously the LNP aren’t gonna lose on 47.5% (in a LNP vs ONP count, they’ll get Labor and Green prefs), but it’s been a while since Maranoa went to preferences.
One Nation are currently less than 500 votes behind Labor. They’re doing far better on postals (15% vs 10% for Labor, with LNP way ahead). If they finish postals before they start on absents and declarations, I expect One Nation to pull ahead (possibly triggering a 2PP recount), although whether that will hold to the final distribution remains to be seen.
The numbers in the previous post are simplified and if the current figures hold Labor should stay very slightly ahead on first preferences.
As BoP suggested, Maranoa did indeed finish as a 2CP between LNP and One Nation.
It’s come out at around 66-34.