Mackellar – Australia 2016

LIB 18.8%

Incumbent MP
Bronwyn Bishop, since 1994. Previously Senator for New South Wales 1987-1994.

Geography
Northern beaches of Sydney. Mackellar covers Pittwater council area and a majority of the Warringah council area. Major suburbs include Dee Why, Collaroy, Narrabeen, Mona Vale, Avalon and Frenchs Forest.

Redistribution
No change.

History
Mackellar was created in 1949 as part of the expansion of the House of Representatives. It has always been won by the Liberal Party with substantial margins.

The seat was first won in 1949 by William Wentworth, grandson of colonial political figure William Charles Wentworth. Wentworth had previously polled 20% of the vote in the seat of Wentworth (named after his grandfather) as an independent in 1943.

Wentworth was a leading red-baiter in Parliament during the 1950s, although he remained in Parliament for almost two decades after winning Mackellar. He was close to John Gorton, and when Gorton became Prime Minister in early 1968 he appointed Wentworth to cabinet as the first ever federal minister with responsibility for Aboriginal affairs. Wentworth remained on the frontbench under Billy McMahon and served in the ministry until McMahon’s defeat in 1972.

Wentworth announced his retirement in 1977, but didn’t wait for the election to resign from the Liberal Party, after returning to the role of outspoken backbench rebel during the first term of the Fraser government. He ran as an independent for the Senate in 1977 and polled 2%.

Wentworth was succeeded in Mackellar by Liberal candidate Jim Carlton, who had served as the state party’s General Secretary during the 1970s. Carlton served as a minister in the final year of the Fraser government, and was a frontbencher in the Liberal opposition from the Hawke government’s election in 1983 until the 1990 election. Carlton retired from Parliament in 1994.

The ensuing by-election was won by sitting Senator and Liberal frontbencher Bronwyn Bishop. Bishop had been a  Senator for New South Wales since 1987, and had been a prominent Opposition frontbencher, and had been discussed as a possible leadership contender. She played a prominent role in the opposition frontbench after winning the by-election, but her colleagues did not share her assessment of her leadership potential, and she was passed over in favour of first Alexander Downer and then John Howard.

Bishop was re-elected to seven full terms from 1996 to 2013. Bishop was appointed to a junior ministerial role after the election of the Howard government in 1996. She was dropped from the ministry after the 2001 election after a controversial tenure as Minister for Ageing. She was elected Speaker after the 2013 election, but was forced to step down in August 2015 after criticisms over extravagant travel expenses.

Candidates
Sitting Liberal MP Bronwyn Bishop is not running for re-election, after losing Liberal preselection.

• Liam Gavin (Independent)
• Jim Ball (Independent)
• Mike Hall (Greens)
• Annie Wright (Christian Democratic Party)
• Jason Falinski (Liberal)
• Rhonda Funnell (Labor)
• Julie Hegarty (Independent)

Assessment
Mackellar is a very safe Liberal seat.

2013 result

2013 two-party-preferred result

Booth breakdown
Mackellar covers all of the former Pittwater council area and a majority of the former Warringah council area, all now contained in the new Northern Beaches council. All of the polling places in the Pittwater area have been grouped together as “north”. Those in Warringah have been split between “south-east” on the coast and “west” further inland.

The Liberal Party easily topped the vote across Mackellar, polling 60.4% of the primary vote in two of the three areas, and 66% in the west.

Labor’s vote ranged from 16.1% in the north to 20% in the south-east. The Greens vote ranged from 11.8% in the west to 17.7% in the north, with the Greens outpolling Labor in the north.