Longman – Australia 2016

My 2 cents – I would think Longman is naturally Labor more so than Petrie, apart from Bribie Is. This area I think is more affluent like Redcliffe and Nth Lakes are becoming.

Feel the Ben = Post of May 10th,

Sorry for the late reply as I’ve largely been out of the country during June…and won’t be here for the election.

If you read my Flynn Post of May 10th, you’ll see I view falling property prices as being the driver of a wing to the ALP around Australia’s regions.

Ground zero for cratered property prices in Qld is Gladstone followed by Rockhampton then Townsville but the sea of red ink starts just to the North of Brisbane which is why Longman is affected, but Petrie and Dickson are apparently immune. This region is where I expect the swing to be.

I expect SEQ, Western Qld and Leichhardt to be largely immune from big swings, maybe one seat (probably Brisbane or Bonner). LNP to win Fairfax and I’ve the sneakly feeling all the press about a close election could push LNP voters away from Katter and could deliver them Kennedy as well, I’m 50/50 on this.

Thanks for the insight. The figures I am hearing are in the order of an 8% swing. Frankly hard to believe, but if the red tide is coming in as you suggest, who know’s.

Jasper Happensprat
Caboolture Herald (Paul Williams Griffith Universtity) today states that 25% of the vote in Longman will go to minors which could cause problems for the sitting member and the ALP challenger.
Up to 15% going to non major or greens parties. ALP candidate states that she would support KAP candidates Brad Kennedy’s 3D-Print University and manufacturing park on pumicestone road. Seems to be the best policy out of the 11 horse race.
Assitant minister for invotation (Wyatt Roy)caught short and is turning to pork barrelling on a heritage walk to chew up 1.5 million. Caught short on question on park and stated no comment. (looking for party advice)

Thanks Tony for the insight. A very interesting few days ahead.

Alan Jones apparently the other days advocated for people to vote Labor in this seat – weird for a conservative like him. Wonder what effect that will have on the old sheep who listen to him? I’m guessing none because they wouldn’t vote Labor ever. Probably just think hes getting old.

If Paul WIlliams is correct Wyatt ROy will be a NEW STart Applicant next month.

Pre polling is averaging about 600 per day at MOrayfield and 500 a day at BRibie Island.

How to Votes are being distributed by ALP, LNP, KAP, , Lazarus & ACTU and GReens. FIrst fiove of these have at least 90% coverage all day. Greens about 50-60% attendance with gaps beteween shifts and doubling up at otyher times.

THe KAP and FF How to VOtes are spolit tickets witrgh one side favouring ALP and other side favoring Liberals. Lazarus is not issuing HTV for HOuse of REps. DRug Reformn and independents have not fronteds at either BRibie or Morayfield. All ALA One nation GReens ACTU how to votes favor ALP. IN effect ROy and his suppoprt for Malcolm TUrnbull has created a United Front of opposition to him persoinally.

I for the 4th time in my life put ALP ahead of Coalition. FIrst time Howard’s work choices election, 2nd time 2010 because of Roy’s social policy, 3rd tim,e to get rid of Newman dictatorship and now to get rid of Roy’s influence within a Coalition government. Over the previous years I actively campaigned for National Party candidate VInce Lester, and couple of other Coalition candidates.

When Coalition lose voters like me they need to recognize that they are losing those that get the,m elected.

Brad Kennedy’s 3D Park VIsion is creating a groundswell of support for KAP in an electorate that would not generally support KAP.

ANdrew Jackson
apjackson@hotkey.net.au

That is very interesting that the far right parties are either preferencing Labor or splitting their tickets. One Nation actually won the state seat of Caboolture at the height of their popularity in 1998.

FTB, I thought Alan Jones only broadcast into Sydney. Is that no longer the case?

Andrew your assessment is pretty much on par with what I am hearing re the figures across this, and a good many others seats across coastal Qld. The red tide is building at an encouraging rate. Definitely game on for Bill now.

Jones broadcasts into Brisbane these days and many believe he had a big impact on the state election.

The split or pro Labor tickets by Katter, One Nation and the ALA (plus Lazarus in Wide Bay Dawson and Herbert) is going to damage the LNP. Pumicestone, Bundaberg, some Townsville seats and a few other at the state election were won by Labor off Palmer and Katter preferences.

I am surprised family first has a split HTV. They have no presence at my local prepoll.

Last point, it seems Lazarus has good prepoll in the SEQ. I haven’t seen his guys in central queensland locations though. But he seems to have them at Chermside as well as these Longman booths. Anyone know of other prepoll he has workers at?

Yes Alan Jones is broadcast into Queensland now and he’s also on Sky News which goes national. He was a big reason why the LNP did so badly at the Qld election. I’m very interested to hear what impact his anti-Wyatt Roy speech has on Longman’s older voters aka Bribie Island.

I spent day at BRibie PRe poll and hbehaviour here deteriorated to teh level of Morayfield earlier in the week. with som Liberals and Lazarus workers having a real set to. Lazarus has done a ver good job of manning pre-poll booths but his workers are clearly more experienced on football field tahn at polling booths and it is clear that they have received no training. Booth workers from all other political parties have described Lazarus’s workers as bullies. They are so inexperienced taht they do not realkise that they need to behave.

Pauline Hanson had worker at the booth for 30 Minutes during a 10 Hour booth opening. Manning a booth for 1/20 of the time a booth is open is failed attempt at roistering. Clearly the worker was sent with a grossly inadequate number of HTV meaning either very poor planning.

On what I have seen tover last two weeks I tyhink Hanson’s election is unlikley.

ALA failed to fromnt at all today. Possibly the experience of haviung aLIberal who had lived in the MIddle East was too much for them. THeir hatred of Islam is unquestionabler butv their vnowledge verges on complete ignorance.

Fortunately KAP, FF, most of Liberals, Greens, and ALP have all been getting on together.

Senator Lazarus had better get around to training his workers or they will come a cropper with S348 of Commonwealth Electoral Act. I for one will be making a formal complaint if there is a repeat of their bullying. I think it likely that this complaint would be supported by great majority opf party workers in Australia. WE all manage our disagreements without resorting to footfall hooliganism.

Andrew Jackson
apjackson@hotkey.net.au

1. I spent day at Bribie Pre poll and behavior here deteriorated to the level of Morayfield earlier in the week. With some Liberals and Lazarus workers having a real set to. Lazarus has done a very good job of manning pre-poll booths but his workers are clearly more experienced on football field than at polling booths and it is clear that they have received no training. Booth workers from all other political parties have described Lazarus’s workers as bullies. They are so inexperienced that they do not realise that they need to behave.
Pauline Hanson had worker at the booth for 30 Minutes during a 10 Hour booth opening. Manning a booth for 1/20 of the time a booth is open is failed attempt at roistering. Clearly the worker was sent with a grossly inadequate number of HTV meaning either very poor planning.
On what I have seen over last two weeks I think Hanson’s election is unlikely.
ALA failed to front at all today. Possibly the experience of having a Liberal who had lived in the Middle East was too much for them. Their hatred of Islam is unquestionable but their knowledge verges on complete ignorance.
Fortunately KAP, FF, most of Liberals, Greens, and ALP have all been getting on together.
Senator Lazarus had better get around to training his workers or they will come a cropper with S.348 of Commonwealth Electoral Act. I for one will be making a formal complaint if there is a repeat of their bullying. I think it likely that this complaint would be supported by great majority opf party workers in Australia. WE all manage our disagreements without resorting to footfall hooliganism.
Andrew Jackson
apjackson@hotkey.net.au

Galaxy poll out tonight has 2PP LNP 53%, ALP 47%

Does anyone know why Labor is suddenly 12 dollars in this seat? Last I checked they were 6. There’s seats Labor are even less chance of winning that aren’t that high in Qld.

given that roy is now 1.01 I gather a big bet has been placed on him .. given how spineless the betting agencies are with election betting, it may have only been $100

I notice Ladbrokes have Roy at 1.20 and ALP at 4.00

FeeltheBern – My record says that last time I checked (a couple of days ago), it was at 4.00 for Labor (I have a spreadsheet that I update each time I check, so I know about interesting shifts in the numbers). Now, as you say, it’s at 12.00. I’m guessing this is a result of the Galaxy poll, which suggests that Wyatt Roy is safe, at 53% 2CP.

53 is hardly 12 dollar safe. That’s the sort of money you get in a safe seat.

@Dubo, it was on Sportsbet where it’s blown out.

FeeltheBern – 53 isn’t safe as a margin from previous election, but changing by 3% in one week is unlikely. That’s probably how punters are seeing it.

Of course, you and I both know that it’s an overreaction to the Galaxy poll numbers.

FeeltheBern .. My point in mentioning the Ladbrokes odds was to show that Sportsbet received a bet of $100 or so on Roy and wound the odds in (and ALP out) dramatically .. Betting agencies don’t predict results, they make a book – no matter the outcome they will win because they don’t accept any sizeable bets.

My prediction: Wyatt Roy will have his margin cut, but should be returned.

Good point Dubo.

Incidentally, I’m not going to update extensively because it’s outside of the range, but that odd shift in odds, where Labor went from 4.00, to 6.00, to 12.00 within the period of a day or so, has been undoing itself. Currently back to LNP 1.10, Labor 6.00.

Roy is really on the nose with this electorate. He has support of older voters who think he is a good young man who will look after them and that he will always tell them the truth. Truth is he has no plans to rectify all of the many problems within his electorate and will just follow the company line. Interesting that there are very few posters with Roy and Turnbull together and no billboards of the two together. Lamb has done a lot of hard yards the old fashioned way with door-knocking etc. She has won over elders of different communities , will be tight but don’t be surprised if Lamb’s old fashioned approach to campaigning is too much for Roy’s big spending bill boards.

This will be my last updating of Sportsbet numbers, and although this is still outside of the tracking range, I thought it would be worth mentioning it.

Odds have shifted back somewhat, now at:

Coalition 1.22, Labor 4.00

Well so it looks like my 8% swing info was on the money. Where did it all go so wrong for the Lib fan club? And you were so confident, what with sportsbet and all LOL!!!

@JH it was always going to be close, although most polls in the last weeks were suggesting that the Coalition was extending its lead. Massively wrong and misleading predictions on my part largely attributable to the Tasmanian phenomenon and the MUCH stronger than expected result for Labor in NSW. When all is said and done I think the Coalition will end up with around 50.5% of the 2PP and yet still do worse than John Howard in 1998 who got 49%.

Having said that however, WA held up very well and outstanding votes will invariably favour the Coalition in a lot the close seats. Roy will find it nigh impossible to come back from Labor that far ahead on the 2PP.

Well I did warn you all on my blog on 29th. Susan Lamb hada very large volunteer base as she connected the people through door-knocking and phone calls(just of half the electorate was contacted). Roy’s supporter base dramatically declining with at booths it was noticeable aging supporters handing out “how to vote ” and not actively engaging with the public. “Vote Lazarus ” booth supporters were of a real benefit , as they were only supporting a senate position in this electorate they , like most other candidates were encouraging “put liberals last” . Whyatt did not engage with the public in the election lead up and most of those who vote Liberal in this electorate , vote for the Prime Minister even if they dislike the member. Susan managed to overcome this and engage with the public that she cares for them and their electorate regardless of who is Prime Minister. Could be very hard for Liberals to dislodge the new member at next election.

Thank you for the generous concession Wreathy re your somewhat erroneous prognostications of last week. You almost had me convinced and I am a “True Believer”.

Anyway neither of us can claim a victory at the moment. So I will put my heartiest congratulations on hold for the present. The following week should be enthrauling.

Might I enquire where it went so wrong for the Libs? I have my perspective but I am a tad more interested in your’s.

I could not pick in Longman one specific area where it went wrong for the LIBS. Roy distanced himself from he electorate while Lamb connected with the electorate. I feel this is a similar issue in most seats that the Libs lost or gave up percentage swings. Big spending advertising budgets are no good if you do not have members and supporters on the street. This I believe is were the Libs biggest problem. Also I did witness at one booth the disgusting behaviour of a Libs worker which was seen by locals lined up to vote. Locals were disgusted and some even gave Lib how to vote forms back to Lib staff prior to voting.

Longman had an over inflated Liberal margin to start with because of all the hullaballoo about Wyatt Roy being the youngest ever member of the HOR. So that was now wearing off as he is seen as just another careerist.
Add to that the demographics of this seat of largely outer suburban battlers, just not the demographic Turnbull appeals too – actually he turns them off in droves as we also saw in Western Sydney. The Qld election results last year in this same area, were a good indicator of what was going to happen here.

@JH Longman wasn’t so much of a surprise TBH nor was QLD itself for that matter – we had polls here that had it 50/50. However, Labor underperformed very badly in Dawson and Capricornia (the Libs may yet hold this, the ABC had them 0.2% ahead on their projections last night). The Coalition held up surprisingly well in QLD as a whole, about 55% of the vote last I checked.

IMV Labor did very well in NSW (even though they will probably lose the statewide 2PP) by reenergising their old base with their Medicare and health campaign, particularly in Western Sydney – Lindsay and Macarthur are notable examples. The Coalition bloodbath in WA was stemmed completely – I don’t think Labor will even win Cowan.

IMV I do not see Labor getting anywhere near majority government or even cracking 70 seats. The Libs are currently on 65 seats. Factoring in where they are ahead gets them to 73. From here, they were ahead last night in Capricornia and Cowan which gets them to 75 although it’s tantalisingly close. They would need to win 1 more from behind – either Hindmarsh or Forde, but considering incumbency and the closeness of the result, I definitely think its possible.

Worst case scenario IMHO, Coalition 73, Labor 72.

Peteer

I made a comment earlier on that Libs had few volunteers. This was very evident prior to pre-polls opening no liberal activity unless it was paid for.

However once the pre-polls opened they had an excess of elderly party members and young LIbs. In fact many of the problems on the pre-poll were caused by too many liberal workers. It was not lack of workers that caused the defeat of Wyatt Roy but to much of Wyatt Roy. They would have been better off if they had left him sitting in his office.

Wyatt Roy obviously lacked the postal vote ‘organizational’ skills of his more marginal National Party mates in the regions. He probably didn’t even try to get deceased persons to vote either, something which is needed if there is a very close decision.

Andrew

So disappointing. The Libs have to pay “volunteers”. I was at counting for postal votes etc and unfortunately the same deal. Paid “volunteers” Bottom line is ROY was on the nose. He had done very little for the electorate in 6 yrs ,did not engage with the electorate and got what bhe deserved.

Peeteer
I suspected that Lbs had paid workers but found nothing to support this. Therefore I did not share this opinion with tally room. The elderly Liberal supporters were not paid. In fact I had an enjoyable conversation with a Liberal candidate for South Brisbane from the 1960’s. It was good to have someone on a booth who knew who Vince Gair was.

If their younger workers were paid Roy got better value for money than Clive Palmer did in Gympie last year. Palmer’s workers came from Coolum Resort and spent most of day sleeping under a tree.

BY paid activity I meant Australia Post delivered mail etc. My wife and I got a postal vote application from Wyatt Roy’s campaign and I know that Susan Lamb was even targeted for an LNP postal vote application. This shows they had too much money however many voters turned up to pre-poll with LNP HTV in their hand. This is the type of paid campaigning that I referred to in earlier post.

I agree with your comment about Roy being on the nose.

Roy’s campaigning in 2010 and to a lesser extent 2013 was personal hard working and effective. I think in 2010 he copied Andrew Jones Adelaide campaign from 1966 the previous youngest MHR. Jones door knocked every house in Adelaide IN 2010 Roy door knocked nearly all of suburban Longman possibly only missing out Rural and Rural Residential blocks. IN 2016 I did not hear of any door knocking by Lbs although Susan Lamb did some.