Lingiari – Australia 2016

Labor will hold this easily. The state CLP has squandered the incredible opportunity afforded to them by the bush at the last state election and I expect this seat to echo that state trend, one enormously hostile to the CLP.

@Ben I have also always been surprised by how competitive the ALP are in Alice Springs at the federal level, while the three seats there are safe CLP holds at the territory level. Is there an explanation for this????

Snowdon seems like he would have a large personal vote, with Ruddock retiring he is now the longest serving current HoR MP. I assume that he would have a good profile in Alice Springs

GG
If ever a personal vote was undeserved……

Warren has done very well to hold this for as long as he has and credit should be given to his personal vote that he has earnt

Dan
You clearly know nothing of his history.

I do I just look pass the party affiliation to make my judgement 🙂

@Dan I do not agree at all. From what I have seen, Snowden has done nothing to warrant this kind of personal vote at all, in fact from my point of view the only reason he has held it for this long is because this is a Labor area.

It is a well known fact that the bush and outback of the territory have been solidly Labor for years. The only reason that the CLP have been able to win the seat in the past was because of the strong Liberal presence in Palmertson and Darwin when the seat was just the whole territory. It is an important fact to note that the Libs have never won this seat since it was split which strengthens this theory.

Dan
Nothing to do with party affiliation. Before “Bronnygate” Snowdon held the prize for parliamentary largesse, so clearly you are ignorant of the relevant history.
If memory serves he got a jet to fly him across the country for some dog races (at public expense of course) !!.
For years afterward, whenever he rose to speak (in parliament) some coalition MP’s would howl like dogs !!! Like Bronny it ought to have been the end of him.
So NO. He has earn’t NOTHING, & deserves LESS .

GG
Yes Good ole Warren is now our longest serving, after Phil goes.
Most people don’t realise that with the pre 2004 defned benefit pension (superannuation if you can call such a rort as such) Means it actually costs us less to keep 20 year old deadwood than to retire it (them !!!) .
Phil was & now Warren is actually taking a PAYCUT by not retiring sooner !!!!.
Has he worked it out !!!??
How long will it take him !!!????

Yes Winediamond incase you didn’t know he represents one of the largest electorates in Australia with small communities throughout it. Theres a reason he’s been able to hold it even when the CLP won the bush in 2012. Maybe its because the CLP just can’t find anyone half decent to run against Warren, especially after they put up for the second time someone whose been given financial favours from the CLP, for shame

@Dan that does not make Snowden good. The CLP’s utter shambles does not by default, make the opposing candidate creditworthy. This applies to every seat too.

The seat of Greenway screams to mind: just because Rowland managed to defeat a complete and utter failure in James Diyaz, does not make her an effective and popular member.

The difference between state and Federal figures is Alice Springs and to a lesser extent Katherine……….CLP govt of the territory is truly on the nose……… this makes it likely that they will lose Solomon as well. I think an opinion poll there suggested the CLP may hold nil seats out of 25………….

Dan
The relevant dog races were interstate, NOT in his large electorate. He has earned his nickname of “Howler “!!!!!.
The CLP could get Jesus Christ to run & he would not win !!!.

By Home Islands, do you mean the Cocos (Keeling) Islands?

Yes

There’s a redistribution underway which will almost certainly result in Palmerston being divided between the two electorates. On current figures, that would shift both seats closer to political parity.

There’s a good chance the draft boundaries will drop in the middle of this campaign. This happened six years ago with the Victorian redistribution. At the time Antony Green wrote the following:

“Clearly the Electoral Act is going to have to be amended. This redistribution should never have begun in February and it certainly should not have released its boundaries in the middle of an election campaign. It can do nothing but confuse people about which electorate they live in.

“Unfortunately the Electoral Commission has had to release the boundaries because the Electoral Act is very prescriptive in its redistribution timetable. The Act will have to be changed, which will hopefully bring all redistributions in a term of Parliament into the same time period, rather than be staggered through the term as currently happens.”

That’s a change that remains to be enacted.

DW
I completely agree with you there. It’s just nonsensical that a redistribution proposal should be released mid campaign. As well the parties, electoral analysts and psephologists would be under serious pressure because an election is one of the most important part of an analysts job. Although anytime a government changes an Act in the area of electoral reform it can really look suspicious (e.g. Qld Government last month) so unless there is bi-partisan or even tri-partisan support this would be dead in the water.

My prediction: While Labor cannot take Lingiari for granted, the poor performance of the CLP territorial government, with a swing away from the CLP, should ensure Labor win another term.

My prediction: While Labor cannot take Lingiari for granted, the poor performance of the CLP territorial government, with a swing away from the CLP, should ensure Labor win another term.