ALP 1.3%
Incumbent MP
Wayne Swan, since 1998. Previously 1993-1996.
Geography
Northern Brisbane. Lilley covers most of the northern corner of the City of Brisbane, including the suburbs of Chermside, Stafford, McDowall, Wavell Heights, Nudgee, Taigum, Deagon, Sandgate, Zilllmere and Nundah. The seat also covers Brisbane Airport, which substantially increases the land area covered by Lilley, without much of a resident population.
History
The seat of Lilley was first created at the 1913 election. The seat has a history of moving between Labor and conservative parties, although it has shifted gradually towards the ALP, only falling to the Liberals at their peak.
The seat was first won in 1913 by Liberal candidate Jacob Stumm. He retired at the 1917 election.
The seat was then won by Nationalist candidate George Mackay. Mackay held the seat for 17 years. After the new United Australia Party won the 1931 election, Mackay was elected Speaker, and served in that role until his retirement at the 1934 election.
Lilley was then won by the UAP’s Donald Charles Cameron, who had previously held Brisbane from 1919 until his defeat in 1931. He only held Lilley for one term before retiring.
In 1937, the UAP’s William Jolly was elected to Lilley. Jolly had been the first Lord Mayor of the Greater Brisbane City Council. Jolly held the seat for two terms, but lost the seat in 1943 to the ALP’s James Hadley.
Hadley was the first Labor member for Lilley, and held it until his defeat in 1949. The seat was then held by Liberal MP Bruce Wight.
Wight held the seat until 1961, when he was defeated by the ALP’s Donald James Cameron. He only held the seat for one term, losing to Kevin Cairns from the Liberal Party in 1963. Cairns served as a junior minister under William McMahon from 1971 to his defeat at the 1972 election, losing to the ALP’s Frank Doyle. Cairns won the seat back at the next election in 1974 and held it until his defeat in 1980.
The ALP’s Elaine Darling won Lilley in 1980. She managed to win re-election in 1983, 1984, 1987 and 1990, and was the first Labor MP to hold Lilley for more than two terms.
Darling retired in 1993, and was succeeded by Wayne Swan, the Secretary of the Queensland ALP. Swan lost the seat in 1996 to the Liberal Party’s Elizabeth Grace, but won it back in 1998. He joined the Opposition shadow ministry in 1998 and rose to the top of the party, becoming Treasurer after the election of the Rudd government in 2007.
In 2010, Wayne Swan became Deputy Prime Minister. At the 2010 election, Swan’s margin in Lilley was cut from 8% to 3.2%. Swan resigned from the deputy leadership and the frontbench when Kevin Rudd was elected Labor leader in 2013, and was re-elected to Lilley in 2013 despite a further 1.9% swing.
Candidates
- David Kingston (Liberal National)
- Sharan Hall (Family First)
- Simon Holmick (Liberal Democrats)
- Wayne Swan (Labor)
- Claire Ogden (Greens)
Assessment
Lilley is a very marginal seat. If Labor gains a swing in Queensland, it seems likely that they would retain Lilley.
2013 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Rod Mcgarvie | Liberal National | 37,232 | 41.3 | +0.1 |
| Wayne Swan | Labor | 36,228 | 40.2 | -0.9 |
| Nic Forster | Greens | 6,908 | 7.7 | -4.5 |
| Benedict Figueroa | Palmer United Party | 6,193 | 6.9 | +6.9 |
| James Michael Ryan | Katter’s Australian Party | 1,899 | 2.1 | +2.1 |
| Allan Vincent | Family First | 1,297 | 1.4 | -1.7 |
| Nick Contarino | Citizens Electoral Council | 344 | 0.4 | +0.4 |
| Informal | 4,314 | 4.8 |
2013 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Wayne Swan | Labor | 46,237 | 51.3 | -1.9 |
| Rod Mcgarvie | Liberal National | 43,864 | 48.7 | +1.9 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into four areas: Central, East, North and South.
The ALP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in three out of four areas, with a vote ranging from 52.7% in the centre to 57.7% in the north. The LNP won 50.4% in the south.
| Voter group | GRN % | PUP % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South | 7.9 | 6.5 | 49.6 | 24,171 | 26.8 |
| Central | 6.7 | 7.8 | 52.7 | 16,118 | 17.9 |
| East | 8.2 | 6.8 | 54.9 | 13,453 | 14.9 |
| North | 9.6 | 8.9 | 57.7 | 7,496 | 8.3 |
| Other votes | 7.2 | 6.2 | 48.6 | 28,863 | 32.0 |
I keep forgetting Wayne Swan is still in parliament.
Ahh “The world’s greatest treasurer’ happily ensconced up there in his own little slice of heaven.
It is great that Chris Bowen pays such homage to the man. If not for that we might forget the links between the present, & the all too recent glorious past !!!!.
It is good that Wayne stays to remind us all of his brilliant legacy !!!! Magnificent really !!!.
Labor should comfortably hold this. Although I partly surprised Swanny has decided to stay for another term. Many frontbencher’s whose period of government ends in disgrace and defeat leave immediately thereafter.
W of S
Clearly Wayne feels he still has much to contribute !!!!. Perhaps the LNP agree with him !!!.
Nick C
Yes Wayne is still out there demonstrating his value !!!.
Can’t see why Swan is still there. Its the perfect time for him to step down, allowing a new member to come in with a comfortable swing, and then allowing for the new member to build a personal vote.
No so sure about a “comfortable swing”.. will be interesting on Election night
Drew of NL
It will be comfy. Swan is now dependent on Green preferences though.
Which suburbs are the dark blue ??. Did they used to be in Petrie??.
Bridgeman Downs and McDowall will be the strong Liberal booths…part of Bridgeman Downs is still in Petrie but the rest of Bridgeman Downs and McDowall were taken from Petrie at previous redistributions .. I think this will be closer than many are saying margin is only 1.5 I think
@D of NL true, it is a very narrow margin, but QLD is also going to have one of the largest swings back to the ALP across the country ( ~ 5%).
Are conflicting stories on how big or small the swing will be and what areas. North of the Pine River up to Wide Bay area was where Clive Palmer got the biggest vote so where to they go back to? Howarth the Member for Petrie has worked the Labor areas well over this term so Petrie maybe a surprise come election day. Has a history of staying with Government of the day. I know the margin is only less than 1% but the Palmer vote was about 12%.
Drew of NL
Thanks, interesting. Do you know if the AEC had any rational,for splitting these suburbs, let alone localities, between 2 electorates.
i tend to agree that there is a large vote that no one really has much idea about, & ,where it will go.
Labor will retain this, but I agree Swan needs to retire
Hello,
Been reading and felt like commenting. Parts of Aspley also used to be in Petrie, which I think are LNP areas too. I think if Labor held this seat it would only be with a small personal vote in the eastern parts. I don’t think Swan has much to do with the western parts. LNP won the council ward of Northgate and reduced the Labor margin in Deagon. Demographics may be changing?
This is my first comment on election matters, based on my perceptions. What I think may be way off actual reality.
Thank you
I agree with you BJA and I think your comments are on point. Those suburbs along the Gympie Road corridor, along with Nudgee and Northgate are gentrifying and becoming more liberal-friendly (as the seat of Brisbane has).
It’s these areas where the seat will be decided.
I would think there’s too much base Labor vote for Lilley to be competitive other than in Coalition landslides. Both Sandgate and Nudgee returned to being 60-40 seats at last year’s state election.
Thanks Macca-GC, yes, lots of apartments going up in that area, particularly Nundah. I think Nudgee and Banyo are a bit multicultural and would be Labor areas.
Lilley possibly has potential to be a LNP seat in the future.
BJA from Ryan.
QLD has a redistribution due in about 2 years. Lilley may lose it’s western flank to Petrie, becoming an exclusively coastal seat. Presumably it would be very safely labor indeed.
Or it could lose it’s northern end to Petrie, & gaining the southern end of Petrie. Thus becoming a marginal Liberal seat. Petrie would then become a fairly safe labor seat i’d guess
We can be pretty sure things will be moved , a lot, around within Brisbane. This is because the AEC FAILED so miserably , & completely to provision, & estimate the population growth.
@winediamond
I think Lilley would be marginal at best for Labor.
I think Petrie would come out of Brisbane in the next redistribution. Moreton Bay region is growing, the state seats up there are over quota by quite a fair bit.
BJA
Will you be a little more specific ??
Suhould be a safe Labr hold regardless of the candidate.
Malcolm
Our men on the ground are telling us things are changing. However Swan is quite safe for now.
As i’ve said previously i want him there as long as possible.
ALSO as a 20 year MP his parliamentary salary will be less than his pension !!!. He was so good with numbers i’m sure he knows that !!!
Brisbane’s electoral geography is a bit weird, in that the coastal areas are the strongest for Labor, and the Liberal vote tends to improve as you go inland. Normally, it’s the other way around.
Possibly demographic change is helping the Liberals here, but unless we see a return to the Turnbull bounce polling, this will be safely held by Labor. I do agree that Swan should move on, though.
MM
Quite so, QLD is different (strange!!). Who said anything about wanting Swan to move on ??. i didn’t i want him to stay.
Wayne Swan staying on definitely helps Labor. Throwing a new Labor candidate when the margin is only 1,3% is very dangerous indeed. Swan building the vote up to healthy bumper certainly will help Labor in the future. However, there were certainly mixed views on Swan staying on, with some in party believing Cameron Milner should have been given a chance to run.
Why is Wayne Swan staying on? Love of representing his local electorate?
The Greens candidate for this seat is Claire Ogden – a high quality candidate who has run before in state electorates covering areas within Lilley.
My feeling as someone with long-standing connections to this area is that Wayne Swan is still seen a reasonable quality local member and would retain a personal vote. The Libs also tend to put up poor quality candidates from the more fundamentalist right-wing edge of the party, which doesn’t help them. (a reflection of the growing dominance of the hard right in the LNP).
But Labor will still need a good flow of preferences from what will be a growing number of Greens voters to hold the seat.
Well this really isn’t any sort of X factor. It’s a given that roughly 80% of Greens preferences will end up in the Labor column.
This seat is becoming more affluent. Swan will likely hold but my sources say he hasn’t stepped out of this seat. The ALP don’t appear terribly confident in Brisbane generally but if they do well in Brisbane they win.
I think Swan will be fine, here, but with no improvement on 2pp. I think Labor was wanting to shore up the Labor vote before Swan retires, and I just don’t see it happening – Swan is too closely linked to the Rudd/Gillard issue (due to the historical link to Rudd and the apparent betrayal) to make any headway in that regard.
So Swan will probably win with a margin between 1% and 1.5% again, and Labor will immediately seek out a new candidate to start building their presence in Lilley as soon as possible, so Swan can retire at the next election.
I would agree that Swan is tarnished by the Rudd/Gillard years, in fact he was probably the highest risk of all frontbenchers at the 2013 election, although that being said wish a national swing towards Labor I’d suspect he’d push it out to 3.5-4%
Glen, & L96
What the world’s greatest treasurer !! ??. The man who saved the country from the GFC !! ??.
BTW Does anyone still believe labor rhetoric, that govt spending “saved 200.000 jobs ??
What gives with Brisbane??? Usually the safe Liberal booths are the ones located ocean/bay/harbour side, while the further inland you go, the more Labor-leaning it gets. With Brisbane, it seems to be the reverse. Why is this?
I have heard theory one reason for consolidation of this as a fairly safe ALP seat was the expansion of Brisbane airport from 1970s which reduced land prices in its surrounds.
Brisbane has pockets of wealth rather than entire areas. It is difficult to break down areas like Sydney.
winediamond – “Greatest Treasurer” is definitely an exaggeration, but he did a fine job. When you have one of the most capitalist organisations in the world, the IMF, saying that Australia did well through the GFC because of Labor’s policies and actions (which weren’t exactly the most ‘capitalist’ ones), and Swan was the face of all of that, when their actions prevented a drop in Australia’s credit rating, it’s hard to suggest he did a bad job.
But politics is fickle, and people remember the screw-ups much more than they remember the positives. Swan was a major player in the worst event in Labor history, and he’s seen as somewhat of a villain in that event, turning against his supposedly childhood best friend and basically carpetbombing a guy who was seen as the People’s PM, in support of his overthrower.
He’s seen as highly capable, but untrustworthy. So I don’t see much movement in his support in either direction. Hence why I see little change in his primary or 2PP at this election.
Re: demographics: eastLilley contains much of the industry on Brisbane (council area)’s northside, around Geebung and Virginia. Unlike in Sydney and Melbourne, the beaches are nothing special.
The 60% LNP booths are in fairly recently developed areas and they often feel to me as though they have a higher than average evangelical presence.
I agree with many of the comments that Swan is just idling along. Here for the beer, not the fear.
We have just punted out the long standing labor for the local government and for good reason.
Perhaps, we will see the same sort of result as the demographic in this area is consistent. All those people who moved here didn’t do so because they were dills.
My prediction: Labor hold, Lilley only goes LNP in landslides.
@ Bob….some may see Swan as deadwood Labor just along for the ride the same way there are Liberals in seats who do nothing (Sunshine Coast had some great examples over past couple of decades who kept getting re-elected.) Point being, you never get rid of them. They retire when it suits them.