LIB 4.0%
Incumbent MP
Jason Wood, since 2013. Previously 2004-2010.
Geography
La Trobe covers the south eastern fringe of Melbourne and parts of the Dandenong Ranges. Major centres include Belgrave, Berwick, Narre Warren and Ferntree Gully. It covers parts of Cardinia, Casey, Knox and Yarra Ranges local government areas.
History
La Trobe was first created after the Second World War when the House of Representatives was expanded at the 1949 election. The seat was first won by Richard Casey, who had previously been an MP and minister before resigning from Parliament in 1940 to serve in a variety of diplomatic roles during the war.
Casey served as a minister for eleven years before resigning in 1960. John Jess won the seat for the Liberal Party in a by-election that year and held the seat until his defeat in 1972, when Whitlam’s national victory swept Tony Lamb into La Trobe. He lost the seat in 1975 and later returned to Parliament serving in the seat of Streeton from 1984 to 1990.
Marshall Baillieu won the seat for the Liberals in 1975 and held it until 1980. That year he was defeated by Peter Milton who held it until 1990 for the ALP. Bob Charles defeated Milton in 1990 and held the seat until 2004, during which he served on the shadow ministry from 1994 to 1996.
Charles retired in 2004 and he was succeeded by Jason Wood. Wood’s 5.8% margin in 2004 was cut to 0.5% in 2007, but he held on in the face of the election of the Rudd government. In 2010, Wood was defeated by Labor candidate Laura Smyth. Both major party candidates suffered negative swings, but Smyth benefited from a swing to the Greens and the Sex Party’s candidacy. La Trobe was one of only two seats that the ALP gained off the Coalition in an election where Labor lost ground and lost its parliamentary majority.
Jason Wood won back La Trobe in 2013, thanks to a 5.7% swing.
Candidates
- Tom Cummings (Greens)
- Leah Folloni (Animal Justice)
- Julieanne Doidge (Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party)
- Simon Curtis (Labor)
- Les Hughes (Liberal Democrats)
- Margaret Quinn (Rise Up Australia)
- Jason Wood (Liberal)
- David Fent (Shooters, Fishers and Farmers)
- Martin Leahy (Sex Party)
- Jeffrey Bartram (Family First)
Assessment
La Trobe is a key marginal which has changed hands multiple times in recent years, but you would expect Jason Wood to gain some benefit from not facing Laura Smyth, who would have held some personal vote in 2013.
2013 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Jason Wood | Liberal | 40,925 | 46.1 | +3.0 |
| Laura Smyth | Labor | 28,488 | 32.1 | -7.4 |
| Michael Schilling | Greens | 8,905 | 10.0 | -2.0 |
| Jason Grant Kennedy | Palmer United Party | 4,514 | 5.1 | +5.1 |
| Martin Leahy | Sex Party | 2,475 | 2.8 | +0.5 |
| Daniel Martin | Family First | 1,680 | 1.9 | -0.7 |
| Rachel Jenkins | Democratic Labour Party | 1,168 | 1.3 | +1.3 |
| Kevin Seaman | Rise Up Australia | 711 | 0.8 | +0.8 |
| Informal | 4,083 | 4.6 |
2013 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Jason Wood | Liberal | 47,998 | 54.0 | +5.7 |
| Laura Smyth | Labor | 40,868 | 46.0 | -5.7 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three areas. Those booths contained in Casey local government area in the south-west were grouped as ‘south’. Those contained in Cardinia LGA, along with a single booth in Yarra Ranges which is separated from the remainder of the booths in that council, have been grouped as ‘west’. The remaining booths in Yarra Ranges and Knox have been grouped as ‘north’.
The Liberal Party won a large 57% majority in the west, and a slightly smaller 54% in majority in the south, while Labor won 54% in the north.
The Greens vote ranged from 6% in the south to 17% in the north.
| Voter group | GRN % | LNP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South | 5.9 | 54.1 | 26,604 | 29.9 |
| North | 17.4 | 45.9 | 18,762 | 21.1 |
| East | 10.2 | 57.3 | 12,144 | 13.7 |
| Other votes | 9.0 | 57.6 | 31,356 | 35.3 |
I was at the prepoll today down in Berwick and it wasn’t as awful for Labor compared to last election. The Libs are trying hard to make the CFA issue a vote changer, but in all honesty swing voters don’t seem to care.
Labor are really confident here, so much so they have moved resources from Bruce and Dunkley for the final week.
It will be in the area from Upwey, through Belgrave and all the way to Gembrook that the ALP will be hurt by the CFA issue. Houses are surrounded by tall trees and extensive forests and fire risk puts fear in you. CFA very active and well regarded in these communities. Their volunteers well networked across these communities. 21 people were killed in the Ash Wednesday bushfires in 1993 in Belgrave Heights including many CFA volunteers. These booths are traditionally Labor with many Greens votes (with Emerald being the only Liberal booth). I can see Labor’s vote being hurt if only by a few %. In all of these towns the main streets have extensive “Hands off the CFA” signage (I understand the domain name for this was registered by Lib operatives in April well before this issue blew up). A beat up but an effective one.
In Berwick, Beaconsfield and Narre Warren, the fire risk would be grass fires and the CFA is much lower profile. Issues is these communities will be typical mortgage belt issues. These are quite mixed communities with both expensive and cheaper new estate housing.
Overall, the challenge for Labor will be making up for a few lost % over the CFA issue (an orchestrated beat up IMHO) in the north.
I note L96’s comments on sentiment and activity at the critical south end of the electorate. Given almost all population growth is down there, what happens there is far more important than what happens in the north and even the east (where mostly older voters will be more rusted on). If Curtis has built a sizable personal vote through the football club, council and the school where he teaches he might pull it off. I haven’t been down there so I just don’t know. Great to hear the Labor Party dropping more resources into it at this late stage as it suggests they have a solid chance based on good information. Certainly a big challenge as most southern booths have been strongly Liberal in previous elections.
The whole thing is really a beat up and whilst I don’t doubt ALP leaning CFA vollies might switch their vote to suggest that most swinging voters in a seat such as this would vote based mainly on this issue is ludicrous.
It might push a few over the line to change but most voters do discern between State and Federal issues.
The only people pushing the dispute are Herald Sun and the Libs themselves. The Herald Sun doesn’t have the power it once had and the only people who read it are older whites who just vote Lib anyways, as for most swinging voters especially in outer suburban areas, its all about health, education, jobs and transport.
Disagree. Of course the whole debacle has been orchestrated by the Libs and beaten up by the Murdoch press. However it appears local CFA sentiment real and strong. Lots of signage in every shopping strip in the area. Big turnouts of local CFA volunteers at rallies (with Jason Wood getting photo ops). Don’t dismiss it. It will impact the ALPs vote in these particular areas.
Sounds like a Liberal scare campaign
Sportsbet has this firming for the Coalition,
Coalition 1.35, Labor 3.00
Outside of tracking, will update only if it noticeably gets closer.
Sportsbet today has coalition at 1.15 Labor at 5.0. Seems like the pundits shifting to the Libs.
We’ll see on Sat.
More Lib junk mail today, this time CFA related. They are spending unbelievable amounts up here.
Prediction: Liberal retain is likely
At face value, it looks like the CFA issue bit strongly here.
Labor actually got a good solid swing to them in the suburban booths around Berwick and Narre Warren. But the rural and mountain areas saw a swing to the Liberals.
I was volunteering at Beaconsfield booth for Tom, the Greens from 7.30 am to 4.30pm, checking the votes, it’s clear liberals were favourites, labor and liberals were equal with volunteers, plenty of signage, Rise up had two old folks who got no support, AJ had 3 volunteers and worked hard, Lib Democrats had one bloke, and i had support of two ladies for a bit, but it was quite futile with greens, only getting 6.55%, i had counted and joked with the nice libs & labor volunteers about the 21 people who were very supportive, came to only me for the htv card, what was interesting was strong union presence and even more interesting was conflict between the two cfa groups, i don’t know too much of it, other than it being a state issue, so i stayed out of it but a number of people were divided, many wanted to help, were against, supported but not change voting intention to those saying vote liberals last, i think it was quite divisive but for many wasn’t a vote changer, more so just another factor for them to vote for either major party
Thanks Mark. I have yet to see a booth by booth breakdown so this is news. I suggested in the days before the election (above) that the CFA issue might hurt Labor in the hills area booths. I received a quite misleading and directly political Facebook message from the local CFA on the morning of the election. It’s quite sad that a valued community organisation has been hijacked by the Libs for electoral purposes. I’d have to take a careful look at just how many votes the CFA issue cost Labor in the area. With Jason Wood leading by 1300 votes, it would not have taken a large swing in the northern area to impact the election.
At this stage, with the Libs much better organised with postal votes, likely that the Libs will win La Trobe. We’ll see over the next few days.
Labor had huge swings towards them in Berwick and Narre Warren. Even in Tecoma (3.5%) and Upwey (4.86%) in the north. These were well above the state swing so I don’t think CFA had a big impact in that area although maybe the swings may have been 5-6% without them.
Labor got stung in booths like Ferntree Gully North, Belgrave South, Clematis, Cockatoo, Emerald Gembrook. Other than FTG, all these areas a very rural, and CFA beat up may have had an impact as the swing was to the Libs or a very small Labor swing.
Either way, I think this seat will easily won by Labor next time- especially if Curtis runs again.
The swing in Berwick/Narre Warren is more based on demographic change and increased enrollments (same as Pakenham in McMillan and Cragieburn in McEwen), it’s more of a structural change than a 2PP swing.
Today’s Age (10/7/16) says there was a swing TO the Liberal party in ten booths in the Dandenong Ranges. This is interesting. Overall there seems to be a 3% swing AWAY from the Liberal party in La Trobe. CFA?