KAP 2.2% vs LNP
Incumbent MP
Bob Katter, since 1993. Previously state Member for Flinders 1974-1992.
Geography
Far North Queensland and northwestern Queensland. Kennedy covers a large part of Queensland’s land mass, stretching from the Queensland coast between Cairns and Townsville (although containing neither, and stretching inland to the Northern Territory boundary, covering the inland towns of Mount Isa and Charters Towers. Other major towns include Innisfail, Ingham, Tully, Mareeba and Gordonvale.
History
Kennedy is an original federation electorate. It was mainly held by the ALP until 1966, and since then it has mainly been held by members of the Katter family, first for the Country/National Party and latterly as an independent.
The seat was first won in 1901 by Charles McDonald of the ALP in 1901. McDonald was elected as the first Labor Speaker in 1910 when the ALP won a majority in Parliament for the first time, and served in the role for the entirety of the Labor governments of 1910-1913 and 1914-1917, although he went to the backbench when the Labor government split over conscription in 1917. He held the seat until his death in 1925.
The ensuing by-election was won by Nationalist candidate Grosvenor Francis. Francis won re-election in 1928 but lost Kennedy to the ALP’s Darby Riordan.
Riordan held Kennedy until his death in 1936, when he was succeeded by his nephew Bill Riordan. Riordan held the seat for thirty years, and retired in 1966.
The 1966 election saw Kennedy won by the Country Party’s Bob Katter Sr. Katter was a former member of the ALP who left the party in 1957 when the Queensland Labor Party split from the federal party, and ended up in the Country Party. He briefly served as a minister in the McMahon government for ten months in 1972 before the election of the Whitlam government.
Katter Sr died in 1990 shortly before the federal election, and the seat was won by the ALP’s Rob Hulls, who ran a business in Mount Isa. Hulls held the seat for one term, losing to Bob Katter Jr, a former state MP, at the 1993 election. Hulls moved to Victoria and was elected to the Victorian state parliament in 1996. Rob Hulls went on to serve as a minister in the Bracks government and as Deputy Premier in the Brumby government.
Katter Jr was a strong supporter of Joh Bjelke-Petersen’s state government, and found himself at odds with the federal Liberal/National coalition. He resigned from the Nationals in 2001 and easily won re-election as an independent in 2001, and at the next three elections.
Following the 2010 federal election, Katter found himself sharing the balance of power with fellow independents. He broke with fellow independents in refusing to support a minority Labor government.
In 2011, Bob Katter founded a minor party led by himself, named Katter’s Australian Party (KAP). The KAP performed strongly at the 2012 Queensland state election, winning 11.5% of the statewide vote. One of two MPs who had defected from the Liberal National Party to the KAP retained their seats, and Katter’s son Rob won the seat of Mount Isa. A third LNP member defected to the KAP following the election.
In 2013, Katter was re-elected, but with a much-reduced margin after a 16% swing to the LNP, and KAP performed poorly outside of Kennedy.
Candidates
- Valerie Weier (Greens)
- Donna Gallehawk (Family First)
- Norm Jacobsen (Labor)
- Bob Katter (Katter’s Australian Party)
- Jonathan Pavetto (Liberal National)
Assessment
Bob Katter has been able to retain Kennedy over many elections, but the last election saw his hold weaken, and it’s entirely possible we could see the LNP finally win back Kennedy in 2016.
2013 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Noeline Ikin | Liberal National | 34,344 | 40.8 | +14.2 |
| Bob Katter | Katter’s Australian Party | 24,691 | 29.4 | -17.4 |
| Andrew Turnour | Labor | 13,777 | 16.4 | -3.8 |
| Ronald George Brazier | Palmer United Party | 6,419 | 7.6 | +7.6 |
| Jenny Stirling | Greens | 2,727 | 3.2 | -1.3 |
| Dan Vogler | Family First | 1,064 | 1.3 | -0.7 |
| Chester Gordon Tuxford | Independent | 571 | 0.7 | +0.7 |
| Pam Hecht | Rise Up Australia | 508 | 0.6 | +0.6 |
| Informal | 4,828 | 5.7 |
2013 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Bob Katter | Katter’s Australian Party | 43,896 | 52.2 | -16.2 |
| Noeline Ikin | Liberal National | 40,205 | 47.8 | +16.2 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into eight areas. Kennedy covers a massive geographic area.
Most of the booths lie close to the east coast of Queensland. Booths in Tablelands and Cassowary Coast council areas have been grouped together under the name of the council. Those booths in the south of Cairns Regional Council have been grouped as ‘Mulgrave’.
Booths in Carpentaria, Hinchinbrook and Townsville local council areas, along with a single booth across the border in Charters Towers council area have been grouped together as “Hinchinbrook”.
Booths in the inland towns of Mount Isa and Charters Towers have been grouped, with the remainder of remote polling places being grouped as ‘West’.
Bob Katter won a majority of the two-candidate-preferred vote in seven out of eight areas, ranging from just over 50% in Tablelands and Hinchinbrook to over 60% in Charters Towers and the west.
The LNP won a slim 50.3% majority in Cassowary Coast.
The ALP came third, with a vote ranging from 12% in Charters Towers and the west to 27% in Mulgrave.
| Voter group | ALP % | KAP 2CP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Tablelands | 15.2 | 50.3 | 15,714 | 18.7 |
| Cassowary Coast | 14.7 | 49.7 | 11,400 | 13.6 |
| Hinchinbrook | 17.7 | 50.5 | 8,281 | 9.8 |
| Mulgrave | 27.2 | 55.8 | 7,813 | 9.3 |
| Mount Isa | 18.9 | 55.5 | 6,587 | 7.8 |
| Charters Towers | 12.4 | 60.0 | 4,171 | 5.0 |
| West | 12.1 | 61.6 | 3,616 | 4.3 |
| Other votes | 14.8 | 50.5 | 26,519 | 31.5 |
What went wrong for Bob here ??? Does anyone have any idea ????.
I reckon it was starting KAP. Doesn’t that make him “just like the rest of ’em”?
One thing I heard was that farmers got pissed off at Katter for backing Labor when Rudd took power, and he lost support.
I feel like Katter will hold on, as much as I hate to say this, Katter will make an issue out of the Lib candidate being gay, knowing how Katter works.
It was a blow to the Liberals here when Noeline Ikin dropped out, she could have put up a real fight just like she did in 2013.
Given KAP didn’t lose thier seats at the 2015 state election I suspect Bob will probably bounce back here. I suspect the 2013 result was a combination of people simply wanting to vote LNP because they wanted a change of government, and probably a backlash over his preference deal with Labor. Not to mention the entry of PUP complicating the campaign and eating into Bob’s hold on the ‘anyone but the major parties’ segment of the electorate.
I also suspect that Windsor and Oakeshott’s decision to support Labor may have generally reduced enthusiasm for independents in general, even though Katter didn’t go along with them.
Thanks all
Lots of ideas. None are without credibility IMV.
No politician in Australia works harder for his electorate than Bob Katter. I agree with Nick C that KAP will bounce back again in 2016. The performance of 2 Queensland State MLA’s will convince the electorate that KAP’s MP’s are committed to their electorate in a way that no other parties are. Standing with Bob at any public gathering is a constant stream of individuals who knew Bob were friends with him , helped him dig an army trench with him, knew his father etc etc.
The electorate know that Bob Katter can be trusted even if they dislike his policies they know where he stands and know that this is the way he will vote.
Andrew Jackson
apjackson@hotkey.net.au
Bob will be back, likely with an increased margin
Andrew Jackson
Yes you are dead right on everything. Bob is a great bloke. He embodies ,Commitment, dedication, & integrity. No one has to agree with him on everything, that is never going to be the point. I’d like plenty more like him , as MPs.
A Jackson
Big Bob was on Jones & Co (sky channel) last night. He was out there batting valiantly , with,Jonesey, for the workers in the Townsville nickel refinery. All strength to his arms, & he was quick to acknowledge that Jones had put on so much pressure that the govt had already supplied $73 million to these unfortunate people.
He had plenty of good ideas too, on how to resolve this constructively, & ensure this kind of thing does not happen in the future.
What happened here was the LNP
Told everyone a vote for katter was a vote for labor and they got spooked
This was not true a bob did not support windsor and oakshott
Its true he had to preferenve alp over lnp to save his seat but were it counted he supported abbott
Voters can be so dumb sometimes
The “A vote for Katter is a vote for Labor” backfired badly in the 2015 State election whereby conservative minors that the LNP relied on for government deserted them in droves and reminded everyone why the term ” Lying Liberals” has been so prominent over the years dating back to the 1970’s.
The greens should learn this lesson if they intend to do deals with a party that holds such a badge with honour.
I agree that it is likely that with the ALP minority government, backed by non-Katter independents, gone and a less that popular Coalition government in power, Katter will significantly increase his margin. Katter is an FNQ politics expert.
With LNP, In Government, axing mental health funding, with the travesty of their economic management, lack of support for the region and lack of development in their term of Government, with potential of Katter, having balance of power, the loss of Noeline Ikin contesting, Bob Katter should easily hold onto the electorate against the fly in liberal candidate.
Greens are giving preferences to Bob Katter over the gay Liberal candidate, proves how unliked Liberals are.
Bob Katter came to Melbourne earlier to speak to VIC dairy farmers up in arms, about the major parties, who had deregulated the dairy industry resulting in the current issue occurring, Just proves the incompetency of the LNP. Other than that Bob, has been solely focusing on his electorate.
There seem to have been a few stories out recently speculating on whether Katter is in trouble here, and talk of LNP rolling out the front-benchers and the pork.
I don’t know if this has any basis, or just the usual LNP wishful thinking, but the Coalition seem to believe they have some chance here.
LNP are spreading rumours throughout QUeenslnad that KAP has preferenecd ALP.. https://www.ausparty.org.au/news/latest-updates/view/97/how-to-vote-kapTHIs is a lie see KAP website for a full list of How to VOtes fr KAP can be found at: .
https://www.ausparty.org.au/news/latest-updates/view/97/how-to-vote-kap
LNP have been caught lying oiver Katter preferences previously. THey are as trustworthy as ALP.
ALP promised NO Carbon tax
Newman promised no Public Servants need fear for jobs and to repeal Civil Unions legislation
Both ALP and LNP are less than trurthful. I don’t know if TUrnbull will privatize Medicare biut the fact that he says he will not does not make me want to put money on it.
The electors of Kennedy may not agree with Katter but they know that what he says is what he does.
Andrew Jackson
apjackson@hotkey.net.au
LNP are spreading rumours throughout QUeenslnad that KAP has preferenecd ALP.. https://www.ausparty.org.au/news/latest-updates/view/97/how-to-vote-kapTHIs is a lie see KAP website for a full list of How to VOtes fr KAP can be found at: .
https://www.ausparty.org.au/news/latest-updates/view/97/how-to-vote-kap
LNP have been caught lying oiver Katter preferences previously. THey are as trustworthy as ALP.
ALP promised NO Carbon tax
Newman promised no Public Servants need fear for jobs and to repeal Civil Unions legislation
Both ALP and LNP are less than trurthful. I don’t know if TUrnbull will privatize Medicare biut the fact that he says he will not does not make me want to put money on it.
The electors of Kennedy may not agree with Katter but they know that what he says is what he does.
Andrew Jackson
apjackson@hotkey.net.au
Andrew Jackson
Please explain to me how an entity that has no business, & generates no profit can be ” privatised ” !!???. Who in the hell would buy it !!???.
The facts are that medicare’s expenditure is twice it’s collections via the medicare levy.
This is the greatest political lie, fraud, & deception i have seen in my life.
How anyone with an ounce of common sense could afford it the slightest credibility , has me stumped.
The only question is whether this barefaced lie will blow up on the ALP.
winediamond – same way you can privatise the jail system, for example (which has been done, largely, in America).
The government pays a private company to run the system. That company has a duty to maximise profits, as it is a private company. As such, they want to reduce actual costs while not reducing the burden on the taxpayer.
Glen
This is not America.
Try getting such a deal through the senate !!!!. This is totally ridiculous.
The “profits” you might be referring to, are government payments. For any company to be reliant on one source of revenue,(one customer), even by contract is suicidal.
What would the tender process look like ??
Imagine trying to float a company with such a business. Truly fanciful.
I think that Labor’s campaign is particularly deceitful. I mean both sides are guilty of mischievous behaviour but this takes it to another level.
If JH didn’t privitise Medicare in his decade in power, an individual who was apart of the government that most vehemently criticised and dismantled it, then I seriously doubt that Turnbull will.
winediamond – you asserted that you can’t privatise medicare. I demonstrated that you can.
And medicare is basically health insurance paid by the government. Any private health insurance company could run it as part of their operations. I’m not sure what made you think that the company running medicare would be nothing but medicare – perhaps you confused privatisation of the medicare service with privatisation of a company. When Labor claims that the Liberals want to privatise medicare, they don’t mean the Liberals want to sell the “medicare company”, they mean they want to outsource the medicare service to a private company.
In short, we’re not discussing privatisation like Telstra, we’re discussing privatisation like the various toll roads, tunnels, etc.
Whether it’s likely to happen is a different question, one that I’m not going to get into. I am not discussing the politics of privatisation of medicare, I’m discussing the business concepts of it. It’s entirely feasible from a business standpoint.
I know there is a lot of anti-Katter sentiment out there, and I don’t know whether Jonathan Pavetto can beat him, but if he does, I will be the first to join him to point Katter in the right direction on his walk backwards to Bourke
Glen
Of course you are not going to get into whether it can happen. That would be the end of the discussion !!!.
You have not demonstrated how it is possible to privatise medicare. You just think you have. It is not feasible from a business standpoint at all. There would be so many caveats, & safeguards in any conceivable proposal it would be a nonsense. As is this whole subject.
Winediamond – I was challenging your claim. I have no position on what the ALP is claiming about the Coalition’s plans, as I have no knowledge of Turnbull’s plans on the issue, nor do I know what the ALP knows about Turnbull’s plans. But if you believe that people can only challenge you if they hold the opposite position to you, then you have far too black-and-white a view of the world.
You claim that I haven’t demonstrated how it is possible. I have. I’ve clearly explained the concept – all of the functions that are done by Medicare can be done by external companies. Private Health Insurance companies provide similar functions for their customers already.
Twenty years ago, I could just imagine you declaring that it’s unthinkable that anyone would sell off our telecommunications infrastructure. I mean – who would buy it, after all?
And who would dare suggest the privatisation of government services like medicare? Oh, right – Scott Morrison: http://www.afr.com/news/politics/privatisation-of-government-services-an-option-says-treasurer-scott-morrison-20151014-gk9fac
You want me to go through and prove, in great detail, that it is possible. I’m going to challenge you to a much simpler thing – provide one actual impediment, that I haven’t already addressed. Why would an external company not want to make a profit by running a government service that, at least for a period of time, is guaranteed.
And in what way is medicare different from jail systems, on this issue?
Glen
Couldn’t read your link.
Privatising medicare is politically impossible. So what private companies, might or might not do is irrelevant.
Telstra was , & is a business, better yet it was a MONOPOLY. Yes i always supported it’s sale.
As for your challenge, it is this simple. After the E-W debacle, & Andrews destroying the probity of govt contracts. There is now a significant commercial risk.
So if a company were to take such a politically contentious contract, there would be a latent threat of it being scrapped, & reversed. Compensation might not be forthcoming.
My prediction: Bob Katter will be easily re-elected, particularly with the LNP tide receding.
The three non lnp/KAP parties preference Katter before LNP. Lib/Nats will have a much lower primary vote this election, Should return quite safely to Katter. 2PP is KAP 58-42 LNP
Katter $1.05. LNP $8.50 Labor $26. Katter should easily be re-elected