Jagajaga – Australia 2016

West Heidelberg (the very strong Labor booths in the south west) is an old public housing estate, and it’s this area that keeps the seat in Labor hands. The proximity to Latrobe University means that this area is gentrifying somewhat, and in the longer term I would expect the Liberals to improve their position here and make the seat a marginal.

The rest of Jagajaga is fairly middle class, with some wealthier suburbs closer to the river, and some more Green-friendly areas as you get into the foothills. Perhaps when Macklin retires and the Liberals put a stronger effort into this seat, you might see it flip.

MM
Surely there is still a long way to go before JJ becomes marginal. What are the chances of it being drawn north, & west, & losing it’s eastern end ?? I’m talking 2018.

WD, if the seat became remotely within reach for the Liberals and they started putting in a strong effort, they would be very competitive here. If the Liberals had been able to hold the Turnbull bounce in the polls, I would have picked Jagajaga as a dark horse Liberal gain.

If a rural Vic seat is abolished next redistribution (as it should be) then Jagajaga will probably get pulled further into semi-rural areas to the north/east. This might mean that West Heidelberg gets put into Batman. Both of these changes would be favourable for the Liberals.

MM
So can i assume you are anticipating Batman being pulled east rather than another direction??
Arn’t there so barriers to this ??
Also there seem to be no real areas of strength for the liberal vote to the north, in McEwen i presume. So i wonder where , or how they would gain an advantage ??
A local perspective such as yours would be good

I feel as if this was a particularly bad result at the last election, I would expect this to have a higher then normal swing towards Labor as a correction.

L96
You could well be right about 2013. At the time i gave Macklin a lot of credit for the poor result, but that is only based on my highly derisory, personal opinion, of her.
i’m happy to wait for her to confirm that (this time) !!..

@MM I agree. If the Libs want to win this seat and many other now marginal seats in Melbourne (particularly in the south-east) it might be a good start to actually win the state-wide 2PP. Simple advice to give I know, much harder to emulate of course, but the point still stands. With a Peacock or Fraser-eque result statewide, I feel that the Libs might be in with a chance here – they are really struggling in Victoria.

W of S
WRT the 2PP. It just won’t happen soon.
Victorians really haven’t grown in the same direction as other australians. For one thing the ALP, & unions do not enjoy the same level of cynicism, & even antipathy they have earned in NSW.
They haven’t experienced the same level , or extent, of long term corrupt, & incompetent state labor govts (as we have in NSW). Then to be capped off by RGR govt experience !!!
The RGR govt didn’t poleaxe their aspirational class like it did here. For a number of reasons.
They don’t have the same level of impatience, even intolerance, of political roadblocks that we do.

Hey Mark. I have to disagree with your proposal that a Vic regional division should be abolished at the next redistribution. Whilst Mallee and Wannon are low in enrolment, the massive surplus in McEwen and Lalor can be pushed out to supplement those numbers.
Based on the AEC enrolment stats as of 31/3/16, there’s only 4000 difference in enrolment between the 19 SE Divisions and the 18 NW Divisions.
Based on those numbers one Division either needs to cross the Great Dividing Range or the Yarra.
The AEC tried to make a Division cross the Yarra at their last attempt in Victoria but it got howled down. In hindsight they should have stuck to their guns.
I’d like to see the Division of Melbourne cross the Yarra into Southbank and taking all of the City of Melbourne LGA south of the Yarra, and extending into Port Phillip LGA to get a 50-50 split north and south of the Yarra. This would push Batman south to take the balance of the City of Yarra.
The most likely Division to be abolished would be one of the under-populated Divisions in the metropolitan E&SE. There are about 8 potential names in the mix. Of those Aston is currently the lowest in enrolment so would be my first choice, but that would depend on how the Divisions in the SE were re-structured.
The AEC will probably want to introduce the name of Fraser at the next Redistribution and they may also want to have a second attempt at introducing the Division of Burke which they failed to do back in 2010.
This is one Redistribution I’m hanging out for.

Jeff Waddell
Surely it’s not as simple as you assert. Even if it were, i’m sure the AEC would find a way to complicate it !!!
Murray has an indefensible name, & will certainly be abolished. It is a shame JMF will be honoured with a seat named after him, but it’s inevitable

winediamond
After the AEC’s effort with NSW, I’m convinced they need a bit of competition from the non-government sector. There are a small number of very capable individuals out here that could do that job arguably better than it’s being done now. Mark Mulcair being one of those individuals. The KISS principle sometimes appears to be lacking in some of the decisions these electoral commissions come up with and that’s not just limited to the AEC.
It seems like they go to the effort to make Redistributions as complicated as possible to try and justify their own existence.
Back to the matter at hand: As you know, the AEC tried to abolish Murray in 2010, got howled down and withdrew.
3 years later, the VEC abolished Rodney from the same part of the State despite just as much objection but did not back down on its proposal.
Just following on from my comment above – obviously if an SE Division is abolished, a new Division needs to be created somewhere in Melbourne’s metropolitan NW. I reckon the AEC will re-visit 2010 and push for Burke to be that new Divisional name.
As to which Divisional name is replaced by Fraser – I’d be betting the AEC will have a second crack at abolishing the name Murray.
As for the creation of the Divisional name of Fraser – I’m neither here nor there about it. All other deceased Prime Ministers have a Division named after them apart from poor Joseph Cook who unfortunately has lost out to James Cook to this point.
It could be worse – at some point in the future we’re going to have Divisions named after Rudd, Gillard, Abbott & Turnbull. Though underperforming PM’s are not unique to the modern era.

Imagine how that would sound… Member for Rudd. Unfortunately some Qld MP in the future would likely have that title. Doesn’t have the same ring to it as Member for Ryan, Curtin, etc.

I have always thought Hawke would be the ideal name for a new northwestern Melbourne seat. Obviously Bob is very much still alive, but it seems odd for Fraser to be used as a name there as he had no links to the area.

GG
Bob is determined to keep collecting that Million Dollar a year pension for quite some time to come. So don’t get your hopes up mate !!!.
I still think the people ought to get a vote on naming seats particularly for ex-PMs !!!.
i really do have a problem with Fraser.
Why couldn’t we have kept the Fraser in the ACT honouring another Fraser.?? A far better outcome IMV.

Million dollar a year pension? The serving PM doesn’t get anywhere near that!

I would have said just update the records so that the same seat commemorates multiple Frasers. I believe that’s already the case with Cook.

kme
True. But some of the retired ones cost that. It is called defined benefit pension (+benefits of course)

Jeff, winediamond, etc

McEwen is already stretched as far east-west as it possibly can be. Apart from the fact that it’s all similar urban fringe territory, there’s very little connection between the different parts of McEwen. I have an idea of how I’d like to do this area, which would result in Jagajaga taking in more of Diamond Creek area. But it would depend on how the numbers work.

Plus, the population growth in Melbourne is almost all on the north and west, so the case for creating a new seat there is very strong. The 2010 attempt had some flaws which led to it being overturned….but it will likely be tried again IF a more sensible proposal can be found.

“Victorians really haven’t grown in the same direction as other australians. For one thing the ALP, & unions do not enjoy the same level of cynicism, & even antipathy they have earned in NSW.”

Disagree winediamond – I think you missing a key point. Since the GFC Victorian Gross State per Capita in Vic has fallen by -0.2% as economic growth has been swamped by population growth. Nationally it’s up by 5.3% and so called “basket case” its up by 4.4%. In short Victorians are getting poorer, and have been consistently since 2007, but neither the ALP or the Libs are addressing it, which why you seeing voters peel off from the main parties to independents and the Greens in Victoria. It wouldn’t surprise me if we see another Green or independent get elected in Victoria, and possibly one of each before both parties seriously take notice.

Sandbelter
I’ll stand by that statement , as it is more about our NSW experience over the last 2 -3- decades , which has not been equalled or shared by other states.

Ok, so VIC has been suffering more since the GFC.
What could the major parties do about it ??
PUP didn.t get much support in VIC. So what are the Greens offering VIC thats so enticing??
How would the election of a couple of indies, & or Greens cause the majors to re focus ??
i am not seeing the point.

I’ve got a thought, if Labor by some miracle won the election, would Macklin be a chance to be speaker? I just can’t imagine someone like Swan doing it.

@Fell the Bern that is an interesting question! Not to be too rude but normally, isn’t speaker usually reserved for no-name backbenchers and has-beens? There are several ALP backbenchers who have hardly any spotlight at all that I could imagine filling the role. Nevertheless personally, I think Macklin would be a great choice.

I guess that is a good point, although Bishop was a pretty well known MP. I thought Burke did a good job at speaker. Also don’t mind the current. Bishop was awful.

I’ve heard that Dreyfus would be in the running if they won the election, although if Labor were to get up I’d put my money on Rob Mitchell, he’s second Deputy Speaker behind Smith and Scott.

If Labor wins most seats but in minority, or a bare 75-76 seats, there’s a good prospect they would want Speaker Tony Smith to remain in the Chair.

It doesn’t matter what they would want, a Liberal will not nominate for speaker in that case.

Dreyfus is a talent – much better used as AG than speaker.

I am thinking we should opt away from the main parties – Family First needs a good showing in Jaga Jaga

In the context of some of the polling this campaign, who knows if this is even remotely true…..but FWIW:

A story on ABC about the CFA dispute suggested that Labor internal polling had them “at risk” in this seat, as well as in McEwen.

My prediction: Labor hold.

Mark that internal polling lines up with something I heard from a liberal saying they will hold all seats in Victoria and pick up jagajaga. I replied surely Bruce and Chisholm are more likely but they said no jagajaga is looking like the best chance.

The CFA is giving the Liberals hope in Bendigo and Ballarat as well.

@QA wow, that *is* surprising. I would’ve said exactly what you did. But surely the Libs cannot upturn Macklin, a high-profile and ingrained MP?

Guys the CFA issue is a red herring. Whilst the Lib supporters may suggest that it is the meat and bones of this election, methinks it is more likely the bum fluff. Given the bread and butter issues facing a lot of Vics re standard of living issues, the CFA is a just a smokescreen. Excuse the pun.

I hear that Vic will hold up for Lab and Corangamite is very much in play.

The notion of Jenny Macklin being in trouble is just a Lib distractor and absolute poppycock.

QO, I think longer term the trends are more likely to favour the Liberals here than in McEwen. But it seems unlikely that Jagajaga could be at serious risk in 2016, certainly not before Chisholm at least.

It might be close enough for the parties to do some shadow-boxing with each other….the “secret leaks” and North East Link announcements, etc. Which probably doesn’t bode well for the overall Labor result in Victoria. But Macklin shouldn’t be under serious threat here.

the people in jagajaga are very wealthy and live on 35 dollars a day,

prediction labor hold like the past 10 elections and 30 years,

Another dangerously low PV for Labor in Jagajaga – they were outpolled again by the Liberal Party. Ofc, they should easily get by with Green assistance but should be very careful in the future about any further decline in their PV.