LIB 11.8%
Incumbent MP
Craig Kelly, since 2010.
Geography
Hughes covers southern parts of Sydney. Most of the seat lies in the Sutherland Shire, including Menai, Bangor, Sutherland, Como, Jannali, Illawong, Barden Ridge, Engadine, Heathcote, Waterfall and Bundeena. The remainder of the seat lies at the southeastern end of the City of Liverpool, including Moorebank and Wattle Grove.
Redistribution
Hughes shifted into the Sutherland Shire and out of Western Sydney. Hughes gained Como, Oyster Bay, Karella, Kirrawee and the remainder of Sutherland from Cook, and also gained Heathcote, Waterfall and Bundeena from Cunningham. In exchange, Hughes lost Panania, East Hills and Picnic Point to Banks, Milperra to Blaxland, and Liverpool, Warwick Farm and Chipping Norton to Fowler. These changes increased the Liberal margin from 10.7% to 11.8%.
History
Hughes was first created in 1955 and has been held by the ALP for much of its history despite generally covering relatively affluent areas that would usually be thought of as more favourable to the Liberals. Its first MP was Les Johnson, who held the seat for Labor until he was defeated in the 1966 landslide by the Liberal Party’s Don Dobie. Dobie transferred to the newly created seat of Cook in 1969, and Johnson regained Hughes for the ALP, going on to serve as a minister in the Whitlam government.
Johnson resigned in December 1983, and was succeeded at a by-election by Robert Tickner, who went on to serve a high-profile tenure as Minister for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Affairs from 1990 until losing his seat when the Keating government lost office in 1996.
Danna Vale won the seat for the Liberals in 1996 and held the seat for the next five terms. Labor tried to regain the seat in 1998 with high-profile candidate David Hill, former boss of State Rail and the ABC. However, it was Hill’s more recent role as head of Sydney Water which effectively derailed his campaign, following widespread criticism of that authority’s handling of the water contamination crisis which occurred a few months prior to the election.
Vale served as Minister for Veterans Affairs during the Howard government’s third term, gaining most notoriety for her misdirected ‘stay brave and true’ faxed message of support intended for broadcaster Alan Jones whilst he was facing investigation by broadcasting regulators.
In 2007, Vale’s margin was cut to 2.2%. In 2010, Vale retired and Liberal candidate Craig Kelly won the seat, increasing the Liberal margin to 5.2%. Kelly was re-elected in 2013 with an increased margin.
Candidates
- Ellie Robertson (Animal Justice)
- Phil Smith (Greens)
- Michael Caudre (Christian Democratic Party)
- Craig Kelly (Liberal)
- Diedree Steinwall (Labor)
Assessment
Hughes was considered a key marginal seat in the 1990s and 2000s, but the seat has trended towards the Liberal Party. This trend, along with a Liberal-friendly redistribution, is making Hughes a safe Liberal seat.
2013 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Craig Kelly | Liberal | 48,436 | 54.7 | +5.5 | 55.4 |
| Alison Patricia Megarrity | Labor | 28,406 | 32.1 | -5.7 | 29.8 |
| John Peters | Palmer United Party | 5,224 | 5.9 | +5.9 | 5.3 |
| Signe Westerberg | Greens | 3,948 | 4.5 | -1.8 | 5.8 |
| Peter M Colsell | Christian Democratic Party | 2,561 | 2.9 | +0.4 | 2.8 |
| Others | 0.8 | ||||
| Informal | 7,071 | 8.0 |
2013 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Craig Kelly | Liberal | 53,735 | 60.7 | +5.5 | 61.8 |
| Alison Patricia Megarrity | Labor | 34,840 | 39.3 | -5.5 | 38.2 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into four parts. The majority of the population is in the urban parts of Sutherland Shire, and these booths have been split into “east” (including Como, Jannali and Sutherland) and “central” (including Menai).
Engadine, Waterfall, Bundeena and Heathcote have been grouped as “south”, while the booths in the Liverpool council area are grouped as “north-west”.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all four areas. The Liberal vote was 59-60% in three out of four areas, and was 67.7% in the centre of the seat.
| Voter group | LIB 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Central | 67.7 | 20,409 | 22.5 |
| East | 60.0 | 20,398 | 22.5 |
| South | 59.0 | 14,669 | 16.2 |
| North-West | 59.6 | 11,761 | 13.0 |
| Other votes | 60.7 | 23,541 | 25.9 |
I think the pro-Liberal impact of the redistribution is much greater than it appears on paper. On the old boundaries, the margin was probably inflated considering the areas it covered (parts of Liverpool and southern Bankstown). Labor would have had hopes of getting a good swing back in those areas, making them at least competitive in the seat overall.
But the new boundaries take in more reliably Liberal territory, and it’s pretty much out of reach for Labor now barring a landslide win.
@MM you’re right. Even though the Shire’s west have some of the weakest Liberal booths in the area, they are still strongly Liberal.
Craig Kelly is an excellent local member, very hard working and visible. A great successor to Danna Vale, another excellent local member, also a hard worker and highly active locally. I’m impressed to see that Waterfall voted LIB in 2013 (while still in Cunningham, no less!) When Danna Vale won in 1996 she carried Waterfall… I remember it well, it was the first time the Libs had won that booth at state or federal level – ever.
@GNav as a local(ish) citizen, I totally agree. Now, I may disagree with Kelly’s views, but I know he is an extremely effective MP and definitely deserves his seat.
This was the source of my opposition to the disgusting culture that has developed on both sides of politics in which factional deals are the norm. Nevermind if the local candidate’s views reflect the electorate’s or how well-respected or hardworking the candidate is, it’s all about the faction. Terrible.
My prediction: Liberal hold, Hughes’ demographics have become very Liberal friendly since Howard’s 1996 national victory.