LIB 1.9%
Incumbent MP
Matt Williams, since 2013.
Geography
Western Adelaide. Hindmarsh covers suburbs along the coast to the west of the Adelaide CBD. The seat covers parts of Charles Sturt, Holdfast Bay, Marion and West Torrens council areas.
History
Hindmarsh is an original South Australian seat, having been created for the 1903 election. In the first 100 years of the seat, Labor held it for all but one term, before losing the seat again in 2013.
The seat was first held by James Hutchison of the ALP, who held the seat from 1903 to his death in 1909, and he was succeeded by William Archibald at the 1910 election. Archibald served in Andrew Fisher’s third government as Minister for Home Affairs. Archibald followed Prime Minister Billy Hughes out of the ALP in 1916 over conscription, and briefly served as a minister in Hughes’ National Labor minority government before he returned to the backbenches in the new Nationalist government. Archibald was reelected in 1917 before being defeated in 1919.
After Labor won the seat back in 1919, they held it for the next 74 years continuously. The seat was won in 1919 by Norman Makin, who went on to serve as Speaker during the Scullin government and as a minister under Curtin and Chifley, before leaving Parliament in 1946 to serve as Ambassador to the United States.
Albert Thompson won the seat in 1946, and held it for one term before moving to the new seat of Port Adelaide. Hindmarsh was won in 1949 by Clyde Cameron, who was a major figure in the ALP during the long years of opposition of the 1950s and 1960s, serving as Deputy Leader and a leading figure in the Left of the party. He served in the Whitlam ministry from 1972 to 1975 and continued as an opposition backbencher until his retirement in 1980.
The seat was held by John Scott from 1980 until his retirement in 1993. The 1993 election saw the neighbouring marginal Liberal seat of Hawker abolished, and sitting Member for Hawker Christine Gallus won Hindmarsh off the ALP. This was the only time the ALP had lost the seat to another party in ninety years.
Gallus served as a Shadow Minister in the last term of the Keating government and served in the Howard government as a Parliamentary Secretary in the early 2000s before retiring in 2004. In the election to succeed her, Steve Georganas of the ALP defeated Liberal candidate Simon Birmingham by only 108 votes.
Georganas was re-elected in 2007 and 2010, increasing his margin to 5.7%.
In 2013, Georganas lost Hindmarsh to Liberal candidate Matt Williams with a swing of almost 8%.
Candidates
- Steve Georganas (Labor)
- Patrick O’Sullivan (Greens)
- Mark Potter (Family First)
- Daniel Kirk (Nick Xenophon Team)
- Matt Williams (Liberal)
- Marina William (Christian Democratic Party)
- Alyssa Liu (Animal Justice)
Assessment
Hindmarsh is a key marginal, and could go either way. Labor will be hoping that Georganas’ profile as a three-term MP will help them win back the seat, but the Liberal Party should benefit from a personal vote for their incumbent MP.
Polls
- 55.2% to Liberal – Reachtel commissioned by AMWU, 31 March 2016
2013 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Matt Williams | Liberal | 43,639 | 46.2 | +7.5 |
| Steve Georganas | Labor | 35,876 | 38.0 | -6.8 |
| Andrew Payne | Greens | 8,360 | 8.8 | -3.3 |
| Bob Randall | Family First | 2,883 | 3.1 | +0.1 |
| George Peter Melissourgos | Palmer United Party | 2,332 | 2.5 | +2.5 |
| David Mccabe | Democratic Labour Party | 834 | 0.9 | +0.9 |
| Kym Mckay | Katter’s Australian Party | 599 | 0.6 | +0.6 |
| Informal | 4,847 | 5.1 |
2013 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Matt Williams | Liberal | 49,048 | 51.9 | +8.0 |
| Steve Georganas | Labor | 45,475 | 48.1 | -8.0 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three areas. Hindmarsh covers parts of four local government areas: Charles Sturt, West Torrens, Marion and Holdfast Bay. The first two each make up approximately one third of the electorate, with the rest lying in the two southern councils.
Booths in Charles Sturt council area have been grouped as “north”, booths in West Torrens as “central” and the remainder grouped as “south”.
The Liberal Party won 53% majorities in the north and south, while the ALP won 51.8% of the two-party-preferred vote in the centre.
| Voter group | GRN % | LIB 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Central | 8.7 | 48.2 | 24,548 | 26.0 |
| North | 7.4 | 53.1 | 24,407 | 25.8 |
| South | 9.4 | 53.0 | 21,023 | 22.2 |
| Other votes | 9.9 | 53.4 | 24,545 | 26.0 |
Is this the best chance for Xenophon ???. I’d have thought so.
Do we know were Xenophon’s preferences are definitively going? I’d assume they would lean rather more to Labor, and would therefore probably cost the Libs this seat. I also heard that Mayo was an extremely good shot for Xenophon too, what with the scandal surrounding the sitting MP and the prior popularity of the Democrats in that seat.
30% for Xenophon …… who knows?
W of S
Do you really think Jamie drunkenly touching up a girl will affect more than his primary vote ??. Any intelligent S Australian would vote for Xenephon, & preference the Libs.
It is simply the “pork equation ” After this election there will doubtless, be more pork shipped to SA than anywhere !!!!
@Winediamond I don’t know, I was merely pointing out it was another log to throw onto the fire that could help Xenophon. To what extent the scandal affects Briggs is anyone’s guess.
But I think the key element is the fact that the Democrats were so strong there and Xenophon is a similar cenrtal-ish left-wing leaning party/individual. Not to mention the fact they did so well there with Alexender Downer as the MP, this Briggs is not nearly as high-profile.
I would say Xenophon leans right, not left. It’s just it’s the “big-government conservative” paternalistic kind of Right.
Xenophon best chance is areas where labor primary is weak for him to come second like mayo barker and possibly boothby so preferences from Xenophon won mean a lot. In seats he comes third in I’d expect a 55/45 split to either party depending who the candidate is.
As for this seat Steves support is strong 38% primary was a rather solid result considering it’s always been marginal and it was a bad year for labor, there will be very little for Xenophon to pick from at that, much more from matt who will be looking for a new job after July I’m sure
@Kme I don’t know about that. He has these left-wing environmentalist policies among others. Point being, he certainly aint conservative and a la the Democrats as I was stating with his ‘keep the bastards honest’ mantra.
@Dan I agree Hindmarsh is likely one which the ALP will win.
As a South Australian, I would say Xenophon is more small l liberal than anything else. Yet he is very good at opportunism and staying in touch with the issues over here. I do agree a lot of ex-Democrat voters like him. In other news, there has been rumours circulating for a while now that if Williams loses here, he may find himself parachuted into a safe state Liberal seat.
GG
Xenophon is almost certain to hold the balance of power in the new senate. That would mean huge pork for SA. In a way he could have as much say in the governance of the country, as the PM !!!. Is this being discussed ???
Xenophon definitely is left. He has voted with the Greens more often than any other party. He did not ask a single question on defence in 6 years of Labor. As an irresponsible populist he is always in favourof more spending, and why wouldn’t he be since he can leave it to the grownups to work out how to pay for it.
Whether his supporters feel the same is what will decide preferences.
I saw a poll here the other day that had the Libs up big on primary votes compared to the ALP – low-mid 40s I think. This is good news for the Liberal Party, the higher the PV the less of a chance that the ‘unpredictable’ NXT preferences have to influence the result.
W of S
Even if that were true. It is still only a reprieve for the “condemned man” !!!. The next redistribution will finish him.
@Winediamond, despite my big interest in politics I must admit I am a little vague on redistributions and boundaries. What will the next one entail exactly?
W of S
SA will almost certainly lose a seat. This means Hindmarsh would be swamped with Labor voters. MM & DW seem to feel that the lib areas round Glenelg , & the coast will go to Boothby, so that will be that
Sportsbet has this on a knife edge,
Coalition and Labor both on 1.87
Xenophon Team a distant third at 11.00
This has shifted strongly in favour of the Coalition, so Labor is at 2.60, outside of the range I’ll keep tracking for.
Interestingly, this is also the only seat in South Australia that doesn’t have NXT in second position according to Sportsbet.
Morgan has NXT taking a chunk of both major parties’ votes, but coming a clear third.
Lib 35%, Labor 29.5%, NXT 21%, Greens 9%, Others 5.5%
NXT has seen a surge, here, turning this into a three-corner contest according to punters.
Coalition 1.62, Labor 3.5, NXT 4.00
Based on patterns I’ve observed, if Labor and NXT were treated as a single entity, they’d have a value somewhere around 2.20. So I’ll track this one.
Hindmarsh 2PP is Lib 50%, ALP 50% according to the latest Galaxy poll
Labor strengthening here, with NXT and Coalition both weakening.
Coalition 1.75, Labor 3.00, NXT 5.00
My prediction: Glenelg, Henley Beach and the coast in general are good for the Liberals, while Labor does better inland, particularly around Mile End. If Labor gain any seats in South Australia, it will be likely this one.
The Nick Xenophon Team have made this marginal seat a lot more complex, gun to my head, Williams holds on by a slither.
Prediction: Will come down to Xenophon preferences, At this stage I am expecting a narrow liberal retain but my home state of SA will be the hardest to predict
Do we know who the NXT are preferencing?
Thought Xenophon had no preference allocations
Xenophon said voters would choose for themselves
This is looking interesting – Labor is just slightly ahead with 50.3% on 2PP at current count.
…which could have meant it was likely to swing back on non-ordinary votes. But in 2013, the non-ordinary votes had no impact on the margin – the proportions were identical. 2010 wasn’t much different – very slight favouring of Liberals, but we’re still talking about a difference of about 100 votes, significantly less than the actual margin of over 400 votes.
I’m also interested in Shazzadude’s question, given that no preferences were allocated by the NXT, is there any information coming out about who voters have actually preferenced?
There will be a formal distribution of preferences in every seat once all the votes are in. We’ll know the answer then.
The Hindmarsh result would suggest that Labor got a slight majority of NXT preferences.