Hasluck – Australia 2016

The margin is inflated here. I would expect a sizable correction but would tip the Libs to retain off the back of Wyatt’s popularity.

Wyatt’s primary vote was pretty low considering. Where will the minor party vote , & preferences go ??. There has been a lot of voter movement in the re- distribution. It will be interesting to see if the voters give Wyatt the respect he has earned. I would think he would be a difficult man to vote against.

It’s an interesting seat In that the working class areas of Midland and Maddington booths seem to be lower for Labor while the newly added semi-rural hinterland is a lot less pro-Liberal than I’d expect. I’m not intimately familiar with the area but it strikes me as a broadly socially conservative, somewhat working class division.

It’s a tough seat to call, but I suspect Hasluck will fall the way of whichever party forms government.

Small hint: nobody refers to this region as “the Mundaring hills”. Mundaring is a town, and the region east of Midland is called “the hills”, or “the Darling Scarp” if you’re being technical. Imagine referring to the Blue Mountains as “the Katoomba hills”. Eh? 😉

Malcolm: WA voted 58% for the Libs in 2013. Those pale red booths are actually dark red in the case of a 50-50 result (even darker, if Labor actually win the state for the first time in two decades).

Meanwhile, the hills have plenty of Green voters, same way most hills around major cities tend to (see Mayo, Latrobe, Macquarie). Pearce (where that area came from) isn’t a safe Lib seat because of that area, it’s the wheatbelt to the east that does that (at state level, two Nat seats where Labor come a distant third). Now it’s in a seat Labor can win, they might actually bother trying to.

Hi Bird of Paradox, so how should I refer to that area? I spent some time going through relevant Wikipedia pages and it suggested that as the best one. I know it’s part of the “Perth Hills” but not the only part.

“Hills” works fine (or “Perth hills”). It’s a bit ambiguous, but the population in Mundaring shire isn’t concentrated on one big town the way it is in Kalamunda (the local high school’s in Chidlow, for example), so it’s more likely to be called “the hills”. Kalamunda’s more likely to get referred to by name.

Thanks, I’ve changed it to “the Mundaring Shire parts of the Perth Hills”.

Ben this seat has changed so much since the previous election the bulk of areas that sit in both the State seat of Midland and Swan Hills have never been in the federal electorate of Hasluck they were in Pearce and that includes the town of Mundaring and its surruonds and half of Midland with the change of boundary the seat has gained some traditional Labor areas such as Stratton Beckingham and the other half of Midland as well as keeping the other half of Midland forrestfield and maddington and the new area which is part of Caversham which is made up of both winery areas and new housing estates designed for low to middle income earners. At the last federal election the Gillard rudd impact on these traditional Labor areas had a huge impact on both the last State and federal elections and I believe there will be a big correctional swing back to Labor in those traditional Labor areas mainly due to the unpopularity for the Barnett State Liberal Government . I live in the area and I believe that West Australia will swing very strongly against the Government because of the State Government and if I am right Hasluck will be one of the first two seats in WA to change hands and that is my prediction I really do believe that the Liberal Government is in line to lose 3 seats in WA including Cowan Swan Hasluck and Labor will also win the new seat of Burt as well as hold the three they already have I have studied the results in all the booths that are now in Hasluck over the last three federal and state elections and my view is that the Liberals are in a lot of trouble in this seat because of the correction that will automatically happen at this election and the State Government being on the nose with the electorate

Malcolm – a possible reason for the lower than expected Liberal vote in the east is the number of baby boomer educated professional tree changers on small holdings who are left leaning. The philistine bogan beaches or the nor/sor thing isn’t for them. But their ties to Perth may make a move to Margaret River too far. So they go eor (east of river). Hence the high green vote in parts.

Malcolm – Yes the western and more suburban part of the seat is more working class / socially conservative. The sort of seat that a One Nation type party could do well in.

The reason why the eastern semi rural part is less conservative than you’d expect is it’s full of tree change babyboomer hobby farmers on small holdings. Often professionals on good incomes they eschew the bogan culture-less beaches or the stunted-tree plains just beyond.

The NoR/SoR (North of River/South of River) thing on postage-stamp blocks is not for them so they rebel by going EoR. They might be the type who’d move to Margaret River but have too many professional, social and cultural ties to Perth to move that far away. Hence the high Green vote in eastern areas. A strong Green or left-leading independent could potentially do well in this part of the seat.

Sportsbet has Labor slightly ahead, here

Labor 1.70, Coalition 2.00

Labor strengthening, here.

Labor 1.60, Coalition 2.25

ReachTel poll has 2PP LIB 53% and ALP 47% but that might being generous to the ALP given low 28.2% 1st pref vote,
https://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/7-news-hasluck-poll-16june2016

Reachtel says LIB 53 vs ALP 47

That would be a good result for the Coalition. A 3% swing looks very mild by WA standards.

There does seem to be a trend of the Coalition vote holding up in the marginals, but suffering bigger swings in some safer seats.

Just too quick for me, Yappo!

Labor has weakened a bit, here:

Labor 1.75, Coalition 2.10

I would be surprised is this poll is even close to what’s is actually going on in the electorate. I can tell you from living in the area and following all the local social media pages its is going to be a lot closer result than what this poll is showing

This has tightened to a knife edge.

Labor and Coalition both at 1.87

Something odd is going on with Sportsbet odds, here. It has:

Coalition 1.70, Labor 1.87

All of the other cases where the lead candidate is below 1.75 has the second candidate at 2.00 or above, especially when the third candidate is a distant third (51.00). Don’t know if someone screwed up along the way…

Coalition are rapidly firming up, here.

Coalition 1.40, Labor 2.75

Outside of range, will update if it tightens.

My prediction: The hills areas just might save Ken Wyatt, who is favoured in a tight contest.

I live in this electorate and will probably vote for Wyatt but I think it will be very tight. I am disappointed by the lack of choice with no independents.

I live in this electorate and I most certainly will be voting for Bill Leadbetter it is the only way we will get a decent broadband and ensure that medicare is protected no mater what turnbull says

As I suspected would occur, the swing (according to Newspoll) has significantly receded in WA over the last 2 weeks. It is now down to only 4%.

On those figures, I doubt Labor will be picking up Hasluck and Cowan looks far from definite now. Hell, even Burt is no longer a certainty for them but I would still tip they’ll pick it up due to the profile of Keogh.

WoS, well it was a bit difficult to credit the polls being 50-50 nationally but a 8-9% swing in WA. In the context of a 50-50 campaign with an unpopular state government dragging the feds down, a 4% swing seems more reasonable.

I still think Labor should win Burt comfortably with no Lib sitting member.

W of S
Yes all true. However WRT to Burt, labor still need a big swing.