Grey – Australia 2016

the iron triangle used to be very solidly labor and control the result of the electorate….. now votes less solidly Labor and constitutes approx 1/3 of the electorate

Also the seat has been progressively re-distributed southwards into the Yorke peninsula where the LNP 2PP ranges between 62% and 84% .

Comfortable Liberal hold going forward.

What’s the difference between Port Lincoln and the other cities in Grey?

^^ My understanding is that Port Lincoln is primarily a fishing town while others like Whyalla, Port Augusta and Port Pirie have economies based on mining.

I would add to Malcolm’s comments that Port Augusta is a transport and community services hub for the remote areas to the north and west

ReachTel just released a poll showing NXT winning this seat (!!).

Surely this must cast some doubt on NXT’s level of polling, as it seems impossible to credit this actually happening.

The other alternative I guess…if this [poll is even remotely true, then every single seat in SA (Labor and Liberal) would be up for grabs in a way we’ve never seen from a third party before.

Interesting results from that poll – With the swing to NXT and provided they can pull in preferences from Labor and the Greens, they actually just might be able to do it.

Xenophon picked up approximately 18% of the Senate vote across the seat, so it’s not hard to see that with PUP voters having to look elsewhere and a swing against both the major parties, NXT could easily get up into second place. If they can hold the Libs to below 45% on primary votes and take preferences from Greens and Labor, they’re in with a chance.

The point I want to make is that the opportunity for success for NXT doesn’t lie in crowded three-cornered contests with Labor and the Libs a sizeable Green vote. It’s in ‘safe’ seats (although not ultra-safe), where the second party opposition is weak and the non-siting voters (including strange bedfellows such as Greens and Libs) can coalesce behind NXT (even if only on preferences, not primary vote).

I think this is the one consistent lesson to take away from Wilkie, McGowan and Palmer.

nxt should not be competitive in this seat……. is this tactical voting……… labor and green votes to defeat the libs

I’m inclined to be sceptical about what the polls say about NXT in the House of Reps.

Doubtless Xenophon will have some coattails, but I think the HoR vote will be significantly lower than the Senate vote.

I suspect there’s some novelty factor to including NXT amongst the list of choices in these seat polls. That novelty factor will dissipate in the ballot box where voters can register their support for Xenophon on the big ballot paper, whilst marking the small ballot paper with the party they’d prefer to form government.

IMHO anyway.

Inclined to agree with Mark, this ReachTel poll just serms to ‘out of left field’ to be credible. Perhaps a huge over rep of steel workers could explain such a result?https://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/7-news-grey-poll-9june16

It’s easy to summise that NXT will do well in Mayo, Sturt or Boothby etc BUT Grey?!!!! It would be akin to the Maralinga Lands being declared a UNESCO WH site for biodiversity!

Yes this is a sensational result – but I certainly wouldn’t write it off. It was to be expected that NXT support would rise (dramatically?) as the campaign progressed and there were already polls from a few weeks back showing them with over 20% Mayo and Sturt. This poll indicates that this surge, generated by increased public awareness of the NXT option, has already materialised. New polls in Mayo and Sturt now would likely show NXT in excess of 30% also.

One possibility is that respondents are confusing voting for Nick Xenophon in the Senate, with the option being offered in the HOR. Surely its unlikely this could account for more than 10%, in which case NXT would still be on over 20% in what was supposed to be their weakest seat..

This would indicate they are going to come second in nearly all SA seats and will only be stopped if both majors arrange a preference swap. The ALP will be in the difficult position of deciding whether the fate of their SA contingent is worth sacrificing for the chance to force a hung parliament. I suspect if a preference swap is arranged they’ll conspire to hide it till the day of the election, while handing out different HTV cards in the pre-poll booths.

In a mainly regional area such as this, incumbency is a far more important factor. I doubt NXT will be able to overcome it unless there is serious antipathy against the government, not just indifference as we’ve been seeing with 50/50 polls.

Obviously the comments above are by interstaters. South Australia was openly rubbished by many in the Abbott Liberal Government. This has not been forgotten. Holden ditched and the sickening sweet rush by Pyne and Co. to cover their colleagues open contempt of the Submarine Corporation will not be forgotten by South Aussies. Something that also is not being talked about is the policy affects on Age Pensioners and soon to be Age Pensioners. There is fury out there in the electorates, with South Australian having the oldest population in the country. And who cares about sitting members. Are you telling me that Pyne, Southcott, Briggs and Ramsay are any value to our state. Both old parties are on the nose and Xenophon has given something that many want, a huge alternative to the nonsense we have now.

@Brenty while I understand your antipathy towards the major parties, I am simply saying that historically, incumbency does and has counted when it matters. Perhaps NXT will break this rule but I have yet to see evidence of this. We can only know on election day.

I also find your claim re: the oldest population and age pensions to be unlikely, considering how in polls I’ve seen (such as Roy Morgan), the older the population, the more likely they are to support the Coalition.

Be thankful you actually have a choice other than the major parties, without preferential voting, would NXT really have much of a chance at all? By all means vent your frustration at the major parties – I am angry as well, but let’s not blow this out of proportion.

If the opinion poll for Grey is right….. then Sa will vote in a manner which differs from the rest of Aust. a hung parliament becomes very likely

According to Pollbludger’s weekly roundup, it seems both major parties will be issuing open tickets in South Australia, in what’s a pretty clear agreement to keep NXT out.

Interesting that Labor is going along with this…..they must be just as worried about losing seats to NXT as the Liberals.

Isn’t it likely that it is part of the deal for Liberal preferences?

Labor will preference Liberals ahead of Nationals in several three cornered contests e.g. Murray. This appears to be the deal for getting Liberal preferences in the Greens-Labor contests.

The NXT deal in South Australia appears to be a separate thing altogether: a deliberate agreement between both major parties to lock a newcomer out and protect their own backsides.

As opposed to a deliberate agreement between both major parties to lock The Greens out and protect their own backsides?

Issuing an open ticket in SA might not do the trick. I suspect ON ELECTION DAY the Liberals and ALP will be handing out preference cards FAVOURING EACH OTHER above NXT. They need to keep this deal under wraps because 1. It could lead to a revolt by party workers before election day 2. All the attention would further increase support for NXT and 3. The huge fuss generated might mean hardly any voters actually follow the ticket.

Its looking increasingly likely that NXT is a threat to the ALP as well as the Liberals, or else there would not have been a deal. Think about it – the ALP is verry possibly passing up the change at forcing the Liberals into minority government by this move, so they must be very worried about something.

Ironically NXT is polling so well that their “Nuclear” retaliation option of preferencing sitting members last (following the earlier One Nation example), is unlikely to hold much water. It seems their preferences are unlikely to be distributed as they will come 2nd in nearly every seat – with Adelaide and possibly Hindmarsh being the only exceptions.

I am more interested to see if NXT can repeat its performance in the coming years – they may very well become an influential force…or end up like Palmer and One Nation.

If NXT grow in power, they’re going to need to consider making a name change. “Nick Xenophon Team” was an intelligent choice of name when he was forming a Senate group, but for a party that has lower house seats, that should endure beyond Xenophon’s own political life, it’s inappropriate.

Anyway, I’m liking the rise of NXT. They’re kind of the right-wing Greens (not in the sense of being environmentalist, but in the sense of being a potentially growing power that challenges the main right-wing party, without being extremist), and could be seen as the replacement for the Nationals, now that they’re basically part of the Liberal Party.

If they can grab, say, 4 lower house seats in SA, including Grey, they’ll hopefully be a strong force in parliament. I’m hoping for another hung parliament – it makes it much more likely that policies will only get passed if they’re done right, rather than a party forcing policies through without proper consideration of the consequences.

Glen, Xenophon has stated that he considers the NXT name a placeholder until the party becomes established.

has some one seen the Alp and Lib how to vote cards handed out at prepoll

Glen & Dissenter
I would say that he could kick start the Democrats again, considering their best state was always SA and he aligns strongly with what they used to represent. Although that would be dubious and probably would fail.

Morgan gives Lab 32%, Libs 31.5%, NXT 26.5%, Greens 1.0%, Others 9.0%

Again, it is hard to credit Labor finishing first and getting an increase in their primary vote. But this poll does support ReachTel’s findings from last weekend of NXT doing surprisingly well.

1% Greens? junk poll

Andrew – they only polled 3% here in 2013, this is clearly one of the Greens’ weakest seats. If what I’ve been told is right, and there’s 180 people in the sample, then 1% indicates that 2 out of 180 said they’d vote Greens. If the true vote is 3%, the chance of two or fewer people (out of 180) saying they’d vote Greens is about 9% – that’s actually not an unusual occurrence; in statistics, we’d call that “limited evidence that the true vote isn’t 3%” – further polling would be necessary to say with certainty one way or the other, but if you had to make the call based on this information, you would probably decide that 3% is believable.

So I wouldn’t call this a “junk poll”. It’s just random sampling in action.

L96 – I don’t think it would be a good idea to use the “Democrat” name, again. It’s too tarnished by the stuff they did.

Well I don’t have a lot of time for a poll of 180 people. Perhaps if it was just two party preferred that would be useful.

BTW Wikipedia has Greens’ 2013 vote at 3.7% down from over seven at 2010. I’d say that probably is about at low as it can go though perhaps Xenophon would tap into a little more.

This post has the all the 2013 votes in it, just like all the electorate posts here do.

Peter I doubt you suspicions………. Labor and the forces of darkness will not preference
each other……. even open tickets will be ignored by voters……. If I lived in Mayo I would love to help Mr Briggs lose…….. esp if it hurts the libs by reducing their 75 to 78 seats the pollsters are suggesting

This one is tightening, according to Sportsbet – it has moved into the “tracked” range.

Coalition 1.50, NXT 2.50

… and it has shifted back out of the “tracked” range.

Coalition 1.40, NXT 2.75

Will update again if it moves back into the “tracked” range.

My prediction: Liberal hold, although the Nick Xenophon Team have an outside chance here.

This will be my last time updating the Sportsbet numbers, and this has moved back again.

Coalition 1.50, NXT 2.50

This is now definitely one to watch.

Currently has Liberals ahead at 50.7%, but we have no idea how NXT votes will behave in terms of non-ordinary votes. Liberals always far outpace Labor in non-ordinary in Grey, but who knows what proportion of those will be NXT voters at this election.

The AEC seems to have begun the re-throw. From the figures, it looks like preferences are flowing about 70-30 to NXT, which would get them close but not quite there (around 52-48 to Liberal).

Note also that the AEC have begun with the Port Augusta booths, which were much stronger for the NXT than for Grey overall (they actually beat the Liberals in a couple of booths). So the current NXT lead is not indicative.

And Bonham has some pref flows from those Port ‘a gutter’ booths which he says need to be 71.9% for the NXT to get up,
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2016/07/2016-federal-postcount-grey-and-other.html

There’s a result just come in from the first mobile booths in Barker. The ALP & Other votes are splitting 55-45 between NXT & Lib. Small sample I know, but I think its safe to say based on this and Port Augusta, that the open ticket means NXT will not get Grey. ALP head office might just have gifted the LNP majority government LOL.

The Port Augusta NXT v Lib 2PP count looks much like a ALP v Lib count would. That’s not encouraging for the Xenophon team.

Cassidy has tweeted 2 hrs ago to say that “Grey looking more likely a NXT gain”

However, I really don’t know where he gets that from as the AEC from 2.5 hrs ago still has a very limited count for Lib v NXT.