ALP 3.0%
Incumbent MP
Michelle Rowland, since 2010.
Geography
Western Suburbs of Sydney. Greenway covers the eastern parts of the City of Blacktown and some parts of Parramatta and Holroyd council areas. Suburbs include Lalor Park, Seven Hills, Blacktown, Girraween, The Ponds and Riverstone, and parts of Toongabbie and Pendle Hill.
Redistribution
Greenway was largely unchanged. It’s south-eastern and south-western boundaries shifted slightly west, losing parts of Pendle Hill and Toongabbie to Parramatta and gaining a small area in the south-western corner from Chifley.
History
Greenway was first created in 1984, and was held relatively comfortably by the ALP throughout the 1980s and 1990s.
The seat was first won by Russell Gorman in 1984. Gorman had previously held Chifley from 1983 until he moved to Greenway in 1984. He was succeeded by Frank Mossfield in 1996.
Mossfield retired at the 2004 election, and the ALP stood Ed Husic, while the Liberals stood Louise Markus. The ALP’s margin had been cut to 3% at the 2001 election, and in 2004 Markus managed to win the seat.
The 2007 election saw the seat redistributed radically, and the Liberal margin was increased from 50.6% to 61.3%. A swing of almost 7% was suffered against Markus, but she held on under the new boundaries.
The 2009 redistribution saw the boundary changes largely reversed, and the new margin saw Markus shift to the neighbouring seat of Macquarie, winning that seat off the ALP.
Labor councillor Michelle Rowland won the redrawn Greenway in 2010, and was re-elected in 2013 with a 2% swing, despite a general anti-Labor swing.
Candidates
- Timothy Mak (Liberal Democrats)
- Vivek Singha (Science Party)
- Chris Winslow (Greens)
- Rohan Salins (Family First)
- Aaron Wright (Christian Democratic Party)
- Yvonne Keane (Liberal)
- Avtar Billu (Independent)
- Michelle Rowland (Labor)
Assessment
Greenway is a marginal Labor seat, and could conceivably fall to the Liberal Party. The absence of a Liberal candidate suggests that the seat is not a high priority, and Michelle Rowland appears to be a strong local MP.
2013 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Michelle Rowland | Labor | 38,319 | 44.5 | +2.2 | 44.4 |
| Jaymes Diaz | Liberal | 34,488 | 40.0 | -1.3 | 40.0 |
| Jodie Camille Wootton | Palmer United Party | 3,483 | 4.0 | +4.0 | 4.1 |
| Allan Green | Christian Democratic Party | 3,253 | 3.8 | +0.1 | 3.8 |
| Chris Brentin | Greens | 3,175 | 3.7 | -2.3 | 3.6 |
| Tom Lillicrap | Sex Party | 1,516 | 1.8 | +1.8 | 1.7 |
| Anthony Gino Belcastro | Katter’s Australian Party | 681 | 0.8 | +0.8 | 0.8 |
| Maree Nichols | Rise Up Australia | 681 | 0.8 | +0.8 | 0.8 |
| Jamie Cavanough | Australian Voice | 545 | 0.6 | +0.6 | 0.6 |
| Others | 0.2 | ||||
| Informal | 9,549 | 11.1 |
2013 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Michelle Rowland | Labor | 45,639 | 53.0 | +2.1 | 53.0 |
| Jaymes Diaz | Liberal | 40,502 | 47.0 | -2.1 | 47.0 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three areas. “North” covers those parts north of the M7. Areas south of the railway line have been grouped as “South” with the remainder in “Central”.
The ALP’s two-party-preferred vote ranged from 50.6% in the north to 60.2% in the south.
| Voter group | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| North | 50.6 | 29,946 | 36.5 |
| South | 60.2 | 17,078 | 20.8 |
| Central | 54.6 | 14,828 | 18.1 |
| Other votes | 49.0 | 20,117 | 24.5 |
Blobfish
Great post. Always good to get a local experience. Is it time for a pineapple !!??
I’d like to see some sort of local poll before I commit to spending YOUR money!
What ewas said about Rouse Hill and StanhopeGardens us true. I would expect strong Liberal votes, but then you have Pendle Hill, Blacktown, Girraween, King’s Park solidly in the Labor camp.
I expect it will be what happens in Seven Hills, Lalor Park and Toongabbie that decides this. As the people that built homes in this area in the 70s and 80s move out a new generation is moving in. Often the children if upper middle class families frim the Hills District. Ones who can’t afford the property up the road at Rouse Hill and Bella Vista.
Is Quakers Hills in the seat?
The newer areas of Quakers Hill are in the seat with the older western sections in the next seat over of Chifly. Seven Hills has slowly developed as a Lib area as a lot of KDR’s have been done over the past 10 years or so. Young families moving in to replace the older generations has been the trend definitely.
Well old Quakers Hill in Chifley would be Labor leaningm New Quakers Liberal.
I have been out to Greenway about 3 times during the campaign and the response on the ground has been positive. Quakers Hills, Kings Park, Seven Hills and Toongabbie are swinging around at this point.
Odds for Yvonne Keane winning this seat is down from $5 to $3.25 and firming. I still think this is really good value, probably the best value bet for the election.
Recent Internal Polling have Labor (At best) with 49% TPP.
I think an upset could be on the cards here.
My prediction: The margin from 2013 is representative of the poor campaign of Liberal candidate Jaymes Diaz – Greenway swung over 2% to Labor. Perhaps the only seat the Liberals will gain in Sydney in 2016.
Every election has those upsets, and I’m going for an upset Liberal gain here, although this WILL be tight.
I think this seat will go to liberal very easily. There’s an indian candidate (Avtar Singh Billu) who is campaigning actively in the Indian community for migrant issues. Michelle Rowland made promises to Sikh community in the past that weren’t fulfilled and there is a lot of distrust against Labor. If Avtar gets couple of thousand votes, every single one of them is coming from Labor hence Labor is very bitter against Avtar and both parties have made verbal attacks on each other.
Ponds and other new estates will vote strongly for Liberal mainly for negative gearing issue. It has been a heated issue on suburb FB groups and somehow the feeling is that people will lose their house values if Labor wins.
So I guess everyone tipping a Liberal win in this seat was wrong…Alex Hawke has much to answer for, diverting resources to this seat at the expense of Lindsay
Terrible result for the libs here considering some of the suburbs in this electorate. Michelle nearly won on primary alone! So much for the Diaz Factor. If the libs had spent less time trying to win seats like this and Werriwa they would have had a majority on the night.
@Dan it’s obvious by looking at the numbers that the Libs did atrociously in Western Sydney in a way that was unanticipated by both our internal polling and the published polls. So either both were very wrong (possible but I think not), or a late surge to Labor occurred, far likelier IMV.
It is clear that Labor’s scare campaign on Medicare and Health had an indelible impact here and in NSW more generally, re-energising former Labor voters and their base. Labor had enormous swings back to them in their safe seats off the back of this methinks, Watson, Chifley and Blaxland especially.