Grayndler – Australia 2016

Mark Latham’s record of catastrophic failure and ludicrous ramblings speaks for itself.

kme
Shoot the messenger !!!!. identify his “catastrophic failures”.

As for his ramblings, he is the most widely published ex-labor figure. You may dislike his views, however at least he has some. Most have been proven over the last 11 years (since the Latham Diaries), which i suggest you read.

Uh, the 2004 Australian Federal Election?

I certainly won’t be reading any more of his diatribes or axe-grinding, thanks. But this is getting quite far from the subject of Grayndler.

(Apologies if this appears twice. My wi-fi just did something weird while i posted)

Yes, back to Grayndler, please… In the very heart of the electorate last Tuesday, an incident involving the Greens occurred. It was well reported in all the media. The most sensationalist version is in the Tele – “Greens and grubs in vile protest” – a two page spread.

It was supposed to be the first meeting of the newly merged council, and the various Greens councillors and state MPs were there, at first winding up the crowd , and later “thanking them” for their actions. Jamie Parker vowed to make the new council “unworkable” and in a fiery defiant speech urged them on to further acts of civil disobedience. I didn’t see Jim Casey, but I think I glimpsed the Sydney candidate’s distinctive hair (I might be wrong, blue hair is almost compulsory in this part of the country).

Its worth googling and looking at some of the video footage of the meeting… And interesting that those posted by various left-wing groups try to whitewash their thuggish violence, actually editing it out in a curious attempt to rewrite history. One posted by la Greens connected anti-Westconnex group called “EcoTransit” even try to deny that it occurred. Parker himself has claimed he “didn’t see any.”

I’d be interested in some of the learned opinions here about this will play out over the next month… My own feeling is that most residents, however they feel about the Westconnex and council mergers, will be repulsed by it. This will be a minus for the Greens. Outside the excited bubble world of activists, violence doesn’t play well.

And I have just (right now) heard on ABC news that the woman spitting is going to be charged.

H G
Yes, I watched it, and I found it repulsive. Spitting, jostling etc. I’m embarrassed to live in the same local government area as these clowns. All the bluster about the sacked mayors forming their own government-in-exile is a childish joke, but the video of the protest shows something far more ugly and sinister. If these protesters are friends and supporters of the sacked councillors, maybe we need a 16-month break to find some responsible adults to lead the new council. Most voters will be unaware of what happened, but no genuinely swinging or undecided voter would find that performance persuasive. I was ambivalent about the merger before this, but if people who think it’s OK to behave like that towards others are against it, then you can count me in favour!

Grayndler update:

The placards are going up. Albo seems to comandeered the power line posts. (hasn’t this been banned?) Jim Casey’s (Grns) corflutes are less in evidence, and are mainly in supporters’ front yards. The big illuminated (and expensive) outdoor advertising posters, so much a feature of previous State Greens campaigns, have yet to make an appearance. So has any evidence of a Liberal candidate. Is this a repeat of their 2010 “run dead” tactic?

Greens candidate Jim Casey wants to be a “Bernie Sanders”, or so he says in a puff piece in yesterday’s Fairfax media. Since Bernie seems destined to deliver the US presidency to Donald Trump, the confused candidate may in fact get what he wants… It was a curious story from Herald vet Anne Davis, perhaps to make amends for Fairfax’s role in running with an earlier Casey howler – that he “preferred Tony Abbott as PM rather than Shorten.”

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/election-2016-battleground-grayndler–greens-jim-casey-feels-bad-for-anthony-albanese-over-telegraph-endorsement-20160522-gp0yi3.html

He admits he should have kept his opinion to himself. Indeed, it’s the tortured tactical logic of Trots and ex-Trots – that the oppressed masses will become class conscious and rise up in revolt under a right wing Liberal dictatorship. (Correct me if I’m wrong, someone – it’s been a long time since my days in undergraduate politics). Oddly, in gentrified Grayndler, the “masses” are some of wealthiest property owners in Sydney.

Apparently Albo is under some serious pressure here, according to internal party sources.

https://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2016/06/01/bludgertrack-50-2-49-8-labor/

Its not only the Tele that wants to “save our Albo,” the ALP does too. And they’re spending real money: I spotted my first illuminated billboard (just near Leichhardt Town Hall) last night, and it was for Albo, not the Greens. And then in the local cinema, low and behold during the Val Morgan pre-show entertainment”, there was Albo again, smiling and reminding us how progressive he was… Unfortunately there were only four other people in the cinema (and one of then snorted loudly), but dear oh me, I’m starting to revise my original assessment that he would hang on here. He must be worried, and if the Libs do run dead (it’s looking that way) and preference the Greens, I reckon the “Our Albo” is gone…

The movie was Whiskey Tango Foxtrot, which apparently means WTF. Parliament without Albo? WTF indeed.

Matt
Albo was on Viewpoint last night. I got the feeling he wants this election to be ” Albo’s last stand” if that comes what may.
Albo really didn’t seem to concerned about the future, other than his place in labor mythology IMV.

Albo in a lot of trouble

While I understand the concerns, I think Albanese is safe, albeit by only a small margin.

I can’t see him losing much of his primary vote at this point, so for the Greens to take Grayndler, they would need to get very high preference flows from everyone, including the Liberals… and even if the Liberal HTV says to preference Greens above Labor, I see enough leakage to get Albanese across the line.

This factors in that Labor is going to fight for Grayndler until the very last moment.

Greens will almost certainly be the second party, though.

It is in seats like these where the Greens are causing the ALP a lot of trouble…

By virtue of their small size, the Greens need only target a select few seats (Batman, Wills, Grayndler etc) and pour resources into winning them, far more than what Labor would be prepared to spend on an otherwise safe seat.

As a result, Labor is forced to divert resources away from precious marginals and are in real jeopardy of actually losing some of these. Therefore, this makes me think it unlikely that they will get to 76 on their own.

They only need to deprive the Coalition of 13 seats for them to lose their majority, but need 19 to win themselves and with the very real danger of losing seats to the Greens, I am seeing that as increasingly unlikely.

DB
Great to have you back mate
cheers WD

Now Malcolm Turnbull has stated they will be putting the Greens last this contest is over. I still think Albo would have won regardless of the direction of preferences. Tanya Pilbesek and Anthony Albansese ran a joint function the other night in Balmain suggesting Labor is working this seat hard.

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/federal-election-2016-tanya-plibersek–hands-over-the-balmain-peninsula-to-anthony-albanese-over-a-few-beers-20160607-gpdm3p.html

well we will be able to work that out based on final results. I wouldn’t say wind the campaign down yet, but much more likely to be 51-49 Albo’s way than the reverse.

Without Liberal preferences Andrew, the Greens to get close would have to be neck and neck with Labor on first preferences. Albo’s primary vote is at 46.5% taking into account the new boundaries, there is no chance that is going to happen. This one is over, nothing to see here folks.

I still wouldn’t stop campaigning. For the record I don’t see it at all unlikely that Albo wont get closer to 50% primary vote anyway. Ultimately it might only be when Albo retires that the seat swaps.

I have never denied when Albo retires Labor will find it harder. The same can be said about Tanya Plibersek in Sydney. However it should be noted that the NSW Greens state vote does not necessary translate to the federal sphere as voters can distinct between state and federal issues.

And I also found the argument that the seat is now (substantially) stronger for the Greens somewhat suspicious. Obviously there are potential benefits, but the real immediate beneficiaries were the Liberals (by about a very small 2%). Which makes it just that little bit harder to get into second spot to even get those preferences.

Agree with PNW, nothing to see here now that the preference call has been made… I’m a bit surprised DiNatale didn’t extract anything from the Libs in return for their senate voting reform support. He’s obviously not as “pragmatic” as some would have us believe.

Andrew is right too. Gentrification here has entered a new phase here, and in Balmain and Annandale, its adding as many Liberal voters (if not more) than Greens. Those saying “just wait for Albo to retire” might like to actually look at the sort of people who can afford to live in this increasingly exclusive enclave.

One last observation: The big expensive Greens advertising billboards are now going up as I predicted earlier – illuminating the night sky above Victoria Rd. I’ve heard they’re spending all their NSW budget on helping the Libs get rid of Albo. Well it appears they’ve wasted their money. Besides, the Libs didn’t even say “thanks.”

“I’m a bit surprised DiNatale didn’t extract anything from the Libs in return for their senate voting reform support.”

He extracted support for Senate voting reform, a long standing Greens policy.

Regardless of preference arrangements it still makes sense for the Greens to target Grayndler – if only to build for next time.

I spotted the first Liberal campaign posters in Balmain today. They may be running mostly dead, but not entirely so! I stand by my April prediction that Albo will win, and, with a nod to changing demographics (and boundaries), I suspect we might just see the LIB primary vote a nose in front of the Greens as in 2013. After all, if a Tony Abbott LIB can out-poll the Greens in 2013 in the old Grayndler, I see no reason why a Malcolm Turnbull LIB couldn’t do the same in 2016 on the new boundaries.

I’ve turned my mind to the seat redistribution again and Albo actually seems to benefit most from it. Why? Because the Liberal vote went up. Anything that keeps the Liberals in second place and The Greens in third helps ensure that Liberal preferences at future elections will never matter.

I can’t say what the new primary votes will be this time round and its certainly possible the Greens will overtake to be in that second spot. Had the preference decision been the reverse it might have been in Labor’s interest to hope a few more voters went 1 Liberal. Equally Liberals when the Liberals decide they really want to then they might run dead to try to get another point or two lower and try to get the Greens ahead. A real tactical voting electorate.

Usually the Greens are preferenced by everyone else except CDP (even the Libs in 2010 when the Greens ran second), meaning Albo’s primary had to be over or close to 50%.

This time Greens candidate Jim Casey hasn’t been so lucky. Without the Libs anointing him, he can’t win – and Grayndler is no longer in contention. The Sex Party is preferencing Labor. And according to the Inner West Courier, The Science Party is considering doing the same, as is the Animal Justice Party. Why do the Greens keep putting up candidates who even like-minded progressive activists can’t support?

CDP’s small vote will eventually flow to Albo, leaving just 4 other micros to give Jim Casey a boost. They will all struggle to get over 3 figures.

I’m intrigued by Ben’s notion that spending most of the Green’s NSW budget on an unwinnable seat is somehow worthwhile. Its for “next time,” he says. Personally, I need a more immediate return for my money. I know there’s a lot of “when Albo retires” optimism around amongst Greens people too, but when exactly will that be? 6, 9, 12 years? Some time when the Libs are again generous enough to “let them win”, as was so fervently hoped for this time? By then, gentrification will have completed its brutal and inevitable cycle – and a whole new set of factors will have come into play.

2016 was the Greens’ last shot here.

I find it really interesting that people seem to think that repeating the same actions will provide a different result. Vote liberal, when they fail vote Labor, when they fail vote Liberal. Rinse. Repeat.

My vote will go Green or Independent. I want change.

For me it is about the $2.whatever the party gets for a primary vote…
That’s why the greens will spend big in Grayndler. I live here. They will get a tidy sum from first pref votes even if they don’t win the seat. Lots of NIMBYs here moaning about refugees, westconnex, council mergers, lock out laws, anything really (state gov issue? Doesn’t matter, all the right wingers are the same… ) sad but true
That’s why there is 9 left of centre candidates and two centre or right of centre candidates (depending on your/my definition of where the centre is)

Based on this ticket, it’s a shame that you can’t number every box with a “11”…
I retract my previous comment. I probably won’t be voting green in the reps for the first time in my life. Their candidate is a moron.

I have a postal so I’ll make my decision today and then forget about it. This election can be Summerhayes as “yawn…”

Was there an updated poll for this seat released recently?

According to Kevin Bonham, Morgan have a bunch of (unpublished) polls in Green contests.

They apparently had Greens on 30% here, not enough to win the seat without Liberal preferences.

Do you have a link?

30% primary vote will be seen as a win by many regardless of final outcome.

The local paper (Inner West Courier) held a candidate’s forum at Five Dock last thursday. They combined Reid with Grayndler, which made for a strange
evening. These two inner west electorate are sooo different!

I’ve posted the below on Reid’s page also. Here’s some highlights:

1. Angelo Tsirekas (Reid) and Craig Laundy icily snubbing one another. All the others were chummy and polite, especially Craig and the Jim Casey (Greens, Grayndler) who appeared to get on like a house on fire.

2. Albo (Grayndler) the total pro effortlessly ploughing through the noise of the Greens Westconnex protestors – the only ones who went there to yell and disrupt. Nothing fazes this man.

3. Grayndler pollies looking confused by Reid constituents concerns… Small business tax, superannuation, various Chinese government’s policies, even a Chinese organ donation scandal! Craig was onto it. Its a different inner west out here, one that still has a diverse ethnic mix. Grayndlers’ politics are way more parochial – all about how a motorway might affect its $2m property values (see Mac’s Nimbys comment above)

5. Denied a place on stage, Grayndler’s desperate Socialist Equality guy (a thin whiny man in a suit) trying to draw attention to himself. It was embarrassing to watch

5. Alice Mantel (Greens Reid) being ignored (except by the gracious debate moderator)

6. Grayndlers Lib candidate (whoever he is) didn’t even turn up. But he’s right, there were only 200- 300 people there, and no one goes to these events to change their mind.

I go for the theatre, and for that it was great…

My prediction: Labor hold, unless the Greens surge in this inner-western Sydney progressive hotspot. Albanese’s profile should ensure he’s home safe here.

Albo safe here. Greens build in this seat will be a long one as it has been in inner city Melbourne. Albo’s primary vote will drop slightly, the Greens candidate will outpoll the Liberal and Albo romp it home on preferences.

^^Yep agreed, and would anticipate around a 60-40 ALP-GRN 2PP result.

I’m upping the 2PP to 62:38 to Labor.

The Sex Party is preferencing Labor, and they should be good for at least a percent or two in this “progressive hotspot”. Animal Justice are not directing their voters anywhere. Most of the other minor candidates are stand-ins for the Greens (Christian Democrats excepted) though.

Re C66’s “long build” for the Greens. A lot of people say that, but the Greens peaked in 2013 after a steep rise from 2004 on. Then the decline started. Even before the amalgamation, at the last Council elections the Greens lost control of Leichhardt and Marrickville. In Ashfield they didn’t have a single councillor left.

Also, the term “progressive hotspot” is largely a back-slapping and largely self delusional one too. Gentrification (median house price $2m in many areas) is bringing as many Liberal voters as Greens one to Grayndler now.

Albo had an interesting perspective on that in a SMH profile a week or so back. He said its not disillusioned Labor voters changing to Greens, its the migrant families moving out and selling to white professionals – people who come from families who have never voted Labor. He ruefully concedes that Grayndler’s much lauded multiculturalism and safe Labor status is a thing of the past.

67.3% Well, at least my last prediction was closer than any of the others (some quite bizarre wishful thinking, I reckon) in the thread above.

Maybe after postals and pre-polls are counted, Jim Casey may be able to turn that embarrassing minus into a plus sign, but he could just as easily sink further down into his dismal third place …

The Greens threw everything at this seat, almost their entire NSW budget, and went backwards. The one polling booth I visited (in Haberfield) was just a sea of green, both posters and people, their signage everywhere demanding a “vote against the Westconnex”. Which is indeed deeply unpopular in the “garden estate” of Haberfield, but what happened? Did all those who didn’t want the motorway ploughing through their two million dollar real estate vote for Animal Justice and Drug Law Reform?

Looks that way. If the NSW Greens don’t learn something this debacle this time, (their second abject failure in a row) then they never will. In Victoria the party seems to be able to appoint candidates who reflect the values and aspirations of the ultra rich inner city residents who form their core base of supporters. In Grayndler they gave us yet another socialist.

Yes, as I said before the election, if a Tony Abbott-aligned Liberal can come second in 2013 and push Hall Greenland into third, no reason why a Malcolm Turnbull-aligned Liberal in the 2016 Grayndler couldn’t do the same. And so it has come to pass. I’ve also said before that there is ceiling to the Greens vote, and in federal elections in this area I think we now have a pretty clear idea of what it is.

Terrible result for the greens here. They under-performed their already mediocre statewide swing in this seat – they picked up only 0.7pc statewide in NSW, but they went backwards by 0.3pc on primaries here. The liberal vote even helpfully fell by 3pc but they still came third.

Obviously Grayndler and Sydney won’t go Green until the incumbent retires and the local greens stop preselecting one of Lee Rhiannon’s Trots.

I make no comment on the quality of the campaign or candidate. I do want to comment on the nonsense polling and speculation of polling here.

I’ll preface this with an admission that I make a lot of mistakes here and elsewhere (I pretty much said that there wouldn’t be a DD, Turnbull should have taken my advice though. Even I thought there was potential to get a small swing in places like Ashfield)

I was told by people in the Know that polling was Greens 30% Libs 20% and Albo 39%. There was also a nonsense idea that the redistribution made the seat easier for The Greens, because the new voters might be likely to vote Green. Well it looks like no one considered that they might like to vote for a popular local member too.

I hope the outcome is that nonsense speculation about this seat stops until Albo retires.

Swings against Labor on primary votes in the order of 5, 6, 7 per cent across Annandale, parts of Balmain, Rozelle, Birchgrove would suggest that a personal vote for Tanya Plibersek didn’t translate to Anthony Albanese. Most of it went to the Greens, although even the Liberals had tiny increases in 4 booths in the old Sydney areas.

This contrasts with swings to Labor on primary votes of around 2, 3, 4 per cent across all of the Leichhardt, Lilyfield and Haberfield booths. Greens vote dropped in six of these eight booths, and Libs vote in all eight. Perhaps the 9% drop in Liberal vote at Haberfield West is related to WestConnex?

Haberfield West is indeed looking pretty sad, lots of demolition going on along the WestConnex route. If the 9% drop in Lib votes was related to that, it would have gone to the Greens – the only party opposed to it, right? Did it, GNav?

The WestConnex is also about to devastate the Rozelle old goods rail yard area – formerly in Sydney. And you say the Libs had increases there? What the hell is going on?

Ok that’s a rhetorical question. WestConnex is a state government project, and Grayndler voters are smart enough to understand that. One of the reasons why the Greens did so poorly. Believe it or not, not everyone opposes it either.

BTW. I do

HG, I think you will find we are in furious agreement 😉

It’s difficult to discern any meaningful WestConnex factor in the votes, and for exactly the reasons you state. My Haberfield West comment was a bit facetious. The deserting Liberal voters seem to have scattered to all the other candidates.

Yes, GNav, a more careful reading of your numbers does reveal that! But you were being way too subtle…

Reid – being fair square in the middle of its first stage of disruptive construction, is way more affected by the WestConnex. Yet it comfortably returned its Liberal member, the Greens candidate scoring an unimpressive 0% gain (off a very low 7% base). I was surprised the Greens chose this State project as an issue to fight on – and they pushed it more than any other in Grayndler. But early on (before the Lib preference decision) Albo played into their hands by responding, so perhaps they thought they’d scored a winner.

On the weekend before the poll there was a WestConnex protest meeting in Rozelle. There was only a couple of hundred of the usual protestors there. Albo didn’t have to go to it at all (it was Greens organised) but he did – to talk to individual concerned residents one-on-one. Knowing that he’d just be booed, jeered and mocked, he refused to at the rally, but in the end Grayndler didn’t vote on this, and one week later, the Greens scored a rare negative swing.

Was there a more humiliating result anywhere else in the entire country? Certainly not in other Greens targeted seats in inner Melbourne. What IS the matter with the NSW Greens? Why are they so out of touch – even in areas considered Greens heartland?

More rhetorical questions… There should be an emot symbol for being facetious.

Notes on the Greens big fail:

In Grayndler and especially Sydney – which is been transformed by apartment construction (and soon Green Square), gentrification has been stratospheric over the last decade. The Greens heartland has become a very different place to what it was 20 years ago when they rose as a force. Apartment buyers, tax lawyers and stockbrokers don’t vote the same way as pro-bono refugee activists, students and graphic designers.

Most of my Sydney and Grayndler friends, colleagues and even family vote Greens (yes they are mostly white, comfortably off, professional), but some didn’t this time. They gave varied reasons – one didn’t like DiNatale. Some saw them as part of the “establishment” now (they’ve had power here for over two decades, so that’s true). Others, alarmed by the perceived threat to cuddly Albo and Tanya, or just hopeful of a change of government, decided to strategically vote Labor.

If that last case was a significant factor – the Greens very visible big spending campaign and their overconfidence had a perverse affect – it drove voters away.

Another week has gone by… and not a single vote has been counted! Or, if counted, there has been no updates published. All we have is the ordinary votes cast on the day, plus the same 1790 postal votes that were counted a week ago. What’s happening in Grayndler? Did all the AEC staff go on holidays last week?

Aren’t they counting close seats and the Senate? After all they will have to wait for the postals everywhere so until about now anyway.

It took forever, but the distribution of preferences finally went up on the website. I see that although they were third on primary votes, the Greens did eventually sneak ahead of the Liberals as preferences were distributed. Greens started out 943 votes behind Liberals.

The first seven candidates, as they were eliminated, saw 1871 votes directed to the Greens vs 1154 to the Liberals. Only CDP voters favoured the Liberals (694 LIB to 49 GNS) while the supporters of the other six broke 1822 GNS to 460 LIB. At this point the Greens were still 226 votes behind the Liberals.

It was Animal Justice Party preferences that finally switched the lead (dare I say, including donkey votes). 2031 to the Greens versus 421 to the Liberals. That put the Greens 1384 votes ahead (23457 to 22073). For the record, Liberal voters preferred Labor to the Greens by almost exactly 70/30, giving the final margin of 57872 ALP to 30050 GNS (a margin of 27822, a bit of a hill for the Greens to climb!)

If the shoe were on the other foot, I’d guess Greens would prefer Labor over Liberals by about 80/20. It’s a sweet spot for Albo – local opponents basically evenly split, perpetually fighting for second spot, and always preferring him to their other opponent!

Only Liberals and Christian Democrats preferenced Labor over Greens.

This is unfortunate for the Greens. Even though they came 2nd in the end and they have every reason to believe the seat is winnable due to holding the matching state seats, they probably did themselves more harm than good nationally running a high profile campaign against Albo. The notion that they were selectively targeting Labor’s most progressive MPs was nonsense but it did its damage (and IMO Albo isn’t even that progressive). Next election they would do well to focus on “acceptable targets” like Liberals and right faction Labor MPs like Feeney/Danby/Khalil/Justine Elliot (who were the Labor MPs in the other “target seats” for the Greens this election).