ALP 16.5%
Incumbent MP
Tim Watts, since 2013.
Geography
Southwestern suburbs of Melbourne. Gellibrand covers most of the Maribyrnong and Hobsons Bay council areas. Suburbs include Altona, Seaholme, Williamstown, Newport, Spotswood, Kingsville, Yarraville, Seddon, Footscray, Tottenham, Braybrook and Maidstone.
History
Gellibrand was created for the expansion of the House of Representatives in 1949. It has always been won by the ALP.
Gellibrand was first won in 1949 by the ALP’s John Mullens, a former state MP for Footscray. Mullens was expelled from the ALP in 1955 and joined the ALP (Anti-Communist), which evolved into the Democratic Labor Party. He lost his seat at the 1955 election.
Hector McIvor defeated Mullens in 1955. He held the seat for the next seventeen years, retiring at the 1972 election.
Ralph Willis won Gellibrand in 1972. He joined the Labor frontbench after the 1975 election defeat. Willis served as Shadow Treasurer for most of the Fraser government, but was replaced by Paul Keating shortly before the 1983 election.
Willis served as a cabinet minister for the entirety of the Hawke government, and upon the election of Paul Keating as Prime Minister, he was appointed Treasurer. He served in that role until the 1996 election, and retired in 1998.
Gellibrand was won in 1998 by Nicola Roxon. Roxon was promoted to the shadow ministry in 2001 and was appointed Minister for Health in the Rudd government after the 2007 election. She served as Attorney-General from 2011 until February 2013, when she returned to the backbench, before retiring at the 2013 election.
Labor’s Tim Watts was elected in Gellibrand in 2013.
Candidates
- Jonathon Marsden (Greens)
- Tim Watts (Labor)
- Ben Willis (Liberal)
- David Tran (Independent)
Assessment
Gellibrand is a very safe Labor seat.
2013 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Tim Watts | Labor | 40,236 | 46.0 | -12.9 |
| David Mcconnell | Liberal | 23,343 | 26.7 | +4.3 |
| Rod Swift | Greens | 14,623 | 16.7 | +1.5 |
| Dwayne Robert Singleton | Palmer United Party | 3,413 | 3.9 | +3.9 |
| Allan Cashion | Sex Party | 2,540 | 2.9 | +2.9 |
| Kerry Arch | Family First | 2,266 | 2.6 | +0.2 |
| Anthony O’Neill | Australian Christians | 967 | 1.1 | +1.1 |
| Informal | 5,202 | 6.0 |
2013 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Tim Watts | Labor | 58,139 | 66.5 | -7.6 |
| David Mcconnell | Liberal | 29,249 | 33.5 | +7.6 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into four areas. Polling places in the City of Maribyrnong have been grouped as “north-east”. Those in the City of Brimbank have been grouped as “north-west”. Those in Hobsons Bay have been split into “south-east” and “south-west”.
Labor won a large majority of the two-party-preferred vote, ranging from 60% in the south-east to 73.5% in the north-east.
The Greens vote ranged from 10% in the north-west to 27.6% in the north-east.
| Voter group | GRN % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South-West | 10.9 | 65.4 | 17,627 | 20.2 |
| North-East | 27.6 | 73.5 | 16,628 | 19.0 |
| South-East | 18.8 | 60.3 | 13,132 | 15.0 |
| North-West | 10.1 | 71.1 | 10,295 | 11.8 |
| Other votes | 15.5 | 64.5 | 29,706 | 34.0 |
Will the Greens come second here in 2016?
The Greens have a strong base along the Footscray-Williamstown corridor, and their vote slowly creeping inland as gentrification progresses. But the western parts of the seat are still very working class. If Bell Street is the northern suburbs’ Green/Labor boundary, then Ashley Street and the goods railway line are probably the same for the western suburbs.
The Liberals also have some presence in Williamstown and (to a lesser extent) Altona/Seaholme, so it’s not quite as easy as Melbourne or Batman to overtake them.
A new seat created in the Western suburbs at the next redistribution could take out significant areas from either Altona or Sunshine, although I’d suspect the latter. That being said, this could only happen if a seat in the South East was abolished and that is still an unknown.
The Green prospects here are reasonable but would be long term 15+ years.
In comparison to Wills and Batman still has a much more working class base, property prices are lower and the better Green areas are much more multicultural here (i.e. Footscray being heavily Vietnamese, where as Brunswick and Northcote have been virtually flushed of the Mediterranean base it was 30 years ago)
My estimate would be Labor 51, Liberal 24, Greens 20.
The more immediate threat in this area would be the state seat of Williamstown over the next two election cycles, If the Greens could close that gap to the Libs next election, then jumped them the following election whilst receiving their preferences then that could make Labor sweat a little.
Interestingly, the only seat that had a swing towards the Greens last election other than the main 3 in inner north Melbourne: Melbourne, Batman, Wills (and the swing in Wills was smaller).
Haven’t done the stats but also one of the few seats where the Greens are less than 10% behind the party in 2nd place. The other ones are the Greens “winnable” seats and seats like Kooyong and Warringah where the Liberals are way ahead.
Greens in 2nd place in the Morgan poll. Labor are way ahead but I think it will be the next “Greens Target” after Wills. After that… Maribyrnong?
Gellibrand is a tricky one. I would expect the Liberal vote in places like Williamstown and Altona to hold up pretty well, so it might be more difficult for the Greens to pinch second. A lot might depend on the upcoming redistribution.
In Maribyrnong, the Liberal vote is way too high. There are some affluent and Liberal-voting areas in that seat, so it is quite different from Wills and Batman.
I’d be surprised. This is a pure Labor seat. The Greens only really compete in Yarraville – one small suburb. Plus Tim Watts has proved himself to be engaged and progressive.
This is my tip for the biggest swing to Labor in 2016.
I wouldn’t be so sure PJ.
The Libs are running a much better candidate in this seat this time than 2013. Their candidate is a young, photogenic law student-paralegal who does a lot a community service and is engaged with the community. Pro marriage equality and all, very much a small ‘l’ liberal.
Their candidate in 2013 was a pure disgrace.
Of course Watts is likely to benefit from being an incumbent and well known in the electorate now, and then there is the question of how much local candidates actually matter when our elections are becoming more and more national and “presidential”, but for what it’s worth, the quality of the LIB candidate might prevent a big swing to Labor.
Whats clear is voting has changed and it will always change and the federal election needs to be simplified to Australians. Liberal or Labor both have their repercussions if elected.
What is also clear is that no leader, party or MP have done anything to improve, change the high unemployment throughout Australia and in that regard whoever is elected will certainly promise many things but fail to deliver just like the rest.
Perhaps its time for Independents!
48-26-21 here, in the order you’d expect. It’s greener than the average (cracking 20% is always nice), but Labor won’t have problems here for a while.
Greens won yarraville. Small to decent swings in some places eg spotswood 5%+. But swings to the Libs in Williamstown etc. Birds analysis above seems right.
Greens didn’t win any Yarraville booth, but they came close.
The Greens won Seddon and came 2nd in many booths. Footscray should be worth targeting in the state election, especially if the Liberals preference Greens to undermine the Andrews government.
Tim Watts shouldn’t have much to worry about but would do well to be an outspoken progressive to keep the Greens at bay and keep the Liberal vote higher than it.