ALP 5.1%
Incumbent MP
Julie Collins, since 2007.
Geography
Franklin covers the southern parts of Tasmania and the eastern suburbs of Hobart. The seat is divided into two parts, with each covering half of the voters in the electorate. Half live on the eastern shore of the Derwent River in Clarence and Brighton LGAs, while the other half lives to the south and west of Hobart in Kingborough and Huon Valley LGAs.
History
Franklin was created for the 1903 election. The seat was first held by William McWilliams, who was a member at various times of the minor Revenue Tariff party, the Free Traders, the Commonwealth Liberal Party and the Nationalists, before becoming the first leader of the Country Party in 1920. He lost his seat in 1922 to the Nationalist candidate. He won the seat back as an independent in 1928 and retained it at the 1929 election but died shortly after the declaration of the poll.
The by-election was won by Charles Frost of the ALP, who lost his seat in 1931 to the United Australia Party before winning it back in 1934. He went on to serve as Minister for Repatriation under John Curtin before he lost the seat to Charles Falkinder of the Liberal Party in 1946. Falkinder held the seat until his retirement in 1966, and Ray Sherry of the ALP won the seat in 1969. Sherry lost the seat to Bruce Goodluck in 1975. Goodluck held the seat for the Liberal Party until he was defeated by Harry Quick in 1993.
Quick held the seat until the 2007 election, and he announced his impending retirement in 2005. He caused controversy in 2006 by endorsing a Greens candidate, sitting MP Nick McKim, for the state seat of Franklin in the state election. The ALP originally preselected Electrical Trades Union official Kevin Harkins, Quick openly criticised Harkins and was seen to be supporting Liberal candidate Vanessa Goodwin. Harkins was eventually replaced as the ALP candidate by ALP state secretary Julie Collins, and Quick was expelled from the ALP, supposedly for not paying his membership fees.
Collins won Franklin at the election, and has since won two more terms.
Candidates
- Tim Sanderson (Arts Party)
- Martine Delaney (Greens)
- Amanda-Sue Markham (Liberal)
- Julie Collins (Labor)
- George Muskett (Christian Democratic Party)
Assessment
While Franklin isn’t held by a massive margin, Labor should be able to retain what is now their only seat in Tasmania.
Polls
- 54% to Labor – Reachtel commissioned by Sunday Tasmanian, 14 May 2016
2013 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Julie Collins | Labor | 26,893 | 39.9 | -2.9 |
| Bernadette Black | Liberal | 26,070 | 38.7 | +5.2 |
| Rosalie Woodruff | Greens | 8,201 | 12.2 | -8.7 |
| Marti Zucco | Palmer United Party | 4,108 | 6.1 | +6.1 |
| Josh Downes | Family First | 1,264 | 1.9 | +1.9 |
| Sarah Ugalde | Katter’s Australian Party | 478 | 0.7 | +0.7 |
| Olwyn Bowden | Rise Up Australia | 330 | 0.5 | +0.5 |
| Informal | 2,639 | 3.9 |
2013 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Julie Collins | Labor | 37,103 | 55.1 | -5.7 |
| Bernadette Black | Liberal | 30,241 | 44.9 | +5.7 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three areas, along local government boundaries: Clarence, to the east of Hobart; Kingborough to the south of Hobart; and Huon Valley in the south-west. While Huon Valley covers a large area stretching to the south-western corner of Tasmania, all of the polling places lay at the eastern edge of the council area.
The ALP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 52.5% in the Huon Valley to 56.6% in the Clarence area.
The Greens vote was around 15% in Kingborough and Huon Valley but only 9.4% in the Clarence area.
| Voter group | GRN % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Clarence | 9.4 | 56.6 | 28,299 | 42.0 |
| Kingborough | 15.3 | 55.2 | 14,958 | 22.2 |
| Huon Valley | 15.0 | 52.5 | 8,020 | 11.9 |
| Other votes | 12.8 | 53.7 | 16,067 | 23.9 |
Isn’t it interesting that no one has anything to say here !!!!
One of the rare seats to swing against Labor in 2007. Indeed the only one in Tasmania. No doubt owing to Quick’s retirement, and possibly the preselection drama that accompanied it. Still, the swing was a mild one given the margin the seat had. It proved to be a good time to bring in new blood. (Contrast with neighbouring Denison, where Kerr’s retirement in 2010 was a disaster.)
I’ve never liked the way this seat is drawn. Its two halves seem very disjoint.
Kevin Harkins, the original 2007 Labor candidate, has resurfaced this election at the helm of the newly-registered Recreational Fishing Party.
Amanda-Sue Markham has some interesting form. Ex-Christian Democrat (and plenty of evidence that her social-issue views have not changed since) but also had some rather “compassionate” views on asylum seekers. (This is a pretty common combination among Tasmanian Christians.) Scrubbed her Twitter account around the time she was announced as a candidate. For a while I could read her old tweets via Topsy website, but it went belly-up so most of them are now lost for good.
What do people think of Collins as an MP? As a local, but admittedly not one who goes to the shopping centres every weekend, it seems that she’s not that visible and her only campaigning so far seems to be lots of signs around the place. She was also the only one of Rudd’s second cabinet to be dropped down to the shadow outer ministry after the election, and she’s definitely not well-known nationally.
Collins does have a bit of a visibility issue judging from the recent ReachTEL.
My guide to the five Tasmanian seats:
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2016/06/the-five-tasmanian-house-of.html
My prediction: Labor hold.