ALP 12.9%
Incumbent MP
Chris Hayes, since 2010. Previously Member for Werriwa 2005-2010.
Geography
South-western Sydney, in particular parts of Liverpool and Fairfield council areas. Fowler covers the Liverpool CBD and the suburbs of Cabramatta, Canley Vale, Lansvale, Bonnyrigg, Chipping Norton, Warwick Farm and Bossley Park.
Redistribution
Fowler shifted east, gaining Abbotsbury, Bossley Park, Greenfield Park and Prairiewood from McMahon, gaining the Liverpool city centre, Chipping Norton and Warwick Farm from Hughes, and the remainder of Liverpool from Werriwa. Fowler lost the suburbs of Green Valley, Hinchinbrook, Miller, Cecil Hills, Busby and parts of Mount Pritchard to Werriwa. These changes cut the Labor margin from 16.8% to 12.9%.
History
Fowler was first created for the 1984 election as part of the expansion of the size of the House of Representatives. It is a very safe Labor seat and has always been Labor-held.
The seat was first won in 1984 by the ALP’s Ted Grace. Grace held the seat for fourteen years, retiring in 1998. He was succeeded by Julia Irwin, also from the ALP. Irwin held the seat until 2010.
In 2010, Irwin retired and he was replaced as Labor candidate by Chris Hayes. Hayes had held the neighbouring seat of Werriwa for five years, but had been forced to change seats to make room for Laurie Ferguson, whose seat had effectively been abolished. Hayes won another term in Fowler in 2013.
Candidates
- Bill Cashman (Greens)
- Adam Farhan (Liberal)
- Chris Hayes (Labor)
- Joaquim De Lima (Smokers Rights)
- Craig Hall (Christian Democratic Party)
Assessment
Fowler is a safe Labor seat.
2013 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Chris Hayes | Labor | 47,772 | 60.8 | +7.9 | 56.5 |
| Andrew Nguyen | Liberal | 21,043 | 26.8 | -10.2 | 31.9 |
| Matt Attia | Christian Democratic Party | 3,559 | 4.5 | +4.5 | 3.9 |
| Bradley Charles Pastoors | Palmer United Party | 2,722 | 3.5 | +3.5 | 3.4 |
| Benjamin Silaphet | Greens | 2,684 | 3.4 | -3.3 | 3.4 |
| Darren C Mclean | Katter’s Australian Party | 848 | 1.1 | +1.1 | 0.7 |
| Others | 0.2 | ||||
| Informal | 12,728 | 16.2 |
2013 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Chris Hayes | Labor | 52,526 | 66.8 | +8.0 | 62.9 |
| Andrew Nguyen | Liberal | 26,102 | 33.2 | -8.0 | 37.1 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three parts: central, south and west. The “south” area covers all those booths in the Liverpool council area, while those in Fairfield council area have been split into “central” and “west”.
The ALP polled a massive 72% of the two-party-preferred vote in the centre of the seat and more modest 54% in the south and 55% in the west.
| Voter group | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Central | 72.4 | 26,762 | 34.4 |
| West | 55.3 | 14,100 | 18.1 |
| South | 54.3 | 11,320 | 14.6 |
| Other votes | 59.4 | 25,541 | 32.9 |
I’ve always wondered – what the hell happened here in 2013? How is it that Labor gained an 8.0pp swing towards them?!
In 2010, I think the Liberals had a strong local Vietnamese community leader or something as their candidate. Plus, Irwin’s retirement and the musical-chairs of Labor MPs would have had some negative effect on the Labor vote. There was a nearly 14% swing to the Liberals in 2010, and the margin was reduced to under 9%, so that was probably the odd result.
In 2013, neither of those were the case, so we saw a correction back to a more normal Labor 2PP for this part of Sydney.