Flynn – Australia 2016

i wonder whether Chris Trevor’s absence will make a difference, & how ??

The resources bust has hit very hard here, and the harsh residential property market crash in the most of the towns from Townsville to Calundra has gone pretty much unnoticed in the SE but if there is a relationship between property prices and financial sense of well being, then here, Capricornia, Dawson and Herbert will be producing big swings on the night.

Keep an eye on this one.

The creation a brand new seat anchored on Gladstone came as a surprise at the time. A decade later, one still wonders if it was the right call. Flynn goes right to the edges of Rockhampton and Bundaberg, taking in communities that would be a better fit with Capricornia and Hinkler. That also has deleterious knock-on effects; Capricornia takes in a lot of communities in Mackay’s orbit, which would fit better in Dawson.

Craig Tomsett sounds like a Green but is running as an independent.
Duncan Scott is running as an independent again.
Another independent is Nathan Fletcher.
You can find articles online via the Gladstone Observer.

A large downturn in the resources sector coupled with the decrease in the residential property market (mostly as a cause and effect) in Gladstone will see a swing against the Liberals. On the back of a state wide pro-Labor swing statewide, a seat like Flynn could be marginal, however a 6.5% swing would be very unlikely in my opinion. O’Dowd’s personal vote will be an advantage for the Liberals.

@DW I agree that all the coastal seats are messed up from Townsville right down to Bundaberg with odd splits between seats. It’s almost like they’re waiting for another redistribution so Townsville can be split into two local seats (also taking many surrounding areas currently in Kennedy and Dawson), then pushing Dawson, Capricornia, and Flynn further south, where It might be necessary to put Bundaberg in Flynn and Hervey Bay back in Wide Bay(so the seat actually meets the eponymous bay).

@macca to split Townsville is insane, but Wide Bay should not include Sunshine coast…… in olden days used to be Bundaberg and Maryborough and their surrounds

If you’re grouping Gladstone and Bundaberg together then you’re basically restoring the old Hinkler and abolishing Flynn. It’s certainly a possibility.

Splitting Townsville between two seats is not without merit. Townsville is similar in size to Geelong, which is split between Corio and Corangamite.

It probably won’t be an issue at this redistribution. Queensland is unlikely to gain a seat, so there will be less pressure on the coastal seats to move northwards.

Leichhardt (Cairns) and Herbert (Townsville) have okay growth, but Kennedy, Dawson, Capricornia and Flynn itself have actually had relative decline over the past few years. So we will likely see a correction to the northward movement at this redistribution, as these seats need to push southwards again to gain electors.

DW
Could the same argument apply to splitting Ballarat,& Bendigo.

No.

Geelong and Townsville each have a population of about 180,000. Ballarat 100,000. Bendigo 90,000.

Herbert is a geographically compact electorate with its outer suburbs spilling over into neighbouring divisions (Dawson in particular). Conversely, Ballarat and Bendigo are geographically large electorates with their namesake cities topped up by surrounding rural/provincial communities.

DW
Fair enough.

@DW
I think you and I are on the same page.

It appears to me that Flynn was created prior to 2007 when Gladstone was having enormous growth (and of course that was going to continue forever). Now that growth has stalled and so it would make some sense for the rest of the state to abolish Flynn.

You could never include Maryborough with Bundaberg as you still have Hervey Bay to include. It is most likely that the redistribution will see seats move north to absorb growing north lakes and Gold Coast corridor populations. Noosa into a sunny coast seat and possibly Gympie. Hervey Bay and Maryborough together in Wide Bay. Bundaberg and Gladstone could go together or Bundaberg could take in inland areas (North Burnett towns Monto Gayndah etc) plus maybe Murgon and Nanango)

Nathan Fletcher – http://www.gladstoneobserver.com.au/news/new-kid-on-the-block-looks-at-the-budget/3020088/
Duncan Scott – http://www.gladstoneobserver.com.au/news/independent-standing-again-to-make-candidates-work/2008536/

Tomsett is running this time as a Green, my mistake.

QObserver – I totally agree. Wide Bay needs to move north and be a Hervey Bay/Maryborough seat and Hinkler to take all of Bundaberg/Burnett.

The problem is Gladstone, Rockhampton and Yeppoon. I would say Yeppoon should be in the same seat as Rockhampton, however adding Gladstone would be too many people. So there would then have to be a Gladstone seat which includes parts of Rockhampton and significant rural areas, or Gladstone and Rockhampton, while Yeppoon is moved up to Dawson (which would not be a good result IMO).

I expect a strong swing to Beers here. He is working the seat hard including swinging through the North Burnett and the coastal strip between Bundy and Gladstone. O’Dowd has not got out to these communities much plus Gladstone is a natural Labor town. Once again where the Palmer vote goes will be vital. The Katter candidate ran here in 2013 and also ran in a state seat covering to Bundy to Gladstone stretch as a Palmer candidate. Fletcher the independent is getting good media and One Nation will take some. This is a seat to watch on election night.

I should also add the candidate is an AWU organiser and this is the last regional seat where the AWU has got someone running. The other coastal seats have left faction candidates. So the AWU is putting considerably resources into this one.

The article I linked to in the other thread suggested that Labor was pessemistic in SEQ, but much more bullish here and in Herbert:

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/election-2016-labor-to-fall-short-of-victory-as-parties-go-negative-on-medicare-and-boats-20160622-gpp6xs.html

MM – I think when all is said and done on July 3rd there will be an interesting positive correlation between swing to the ALP and falling home prices. It directly ties into feels of financial Independence, net worth and financial improvement.

I still stand by my post of May 9th where I expect here, Herbert and Dawson to have above average swings to the ALP. If the property prices play a role then also watch Soloman in the NT, Burt, Cowan, Hasluck, Swan, Stirling, Canning and Pearce for the “surprise” swings.

On the east coast its not generally understood that property prices (especially units) in Perth and Darwin are in free fall and we’ll soon be talking about negative equity mortgages. It will also a be a good pointer to 2019.

I am hearing that Flynn is now very much in play. Internal polling by Lab indicates it is line ball and the red tide seem’s to be coming in. What do the locals think?

I live in central Queensland. It is in play.

Q Observer
6.5% is one hell of a margin. What could produce such a boil over ??

The PUP candidate drew 9.2% of the vote last time. I think only a little of it goes back to the LNP. Most will split between Katter and Labor. This is just my read, but the Katter candidate is not a great candidate and is based in the bit if the electorate near Bundy so has no profile in the Gladstone area.

Secondly the two young independents Fletcher and Puku seem likely to preference Labor based oin their policy positions.

Thirdly, as I covered the AWU is throwing resources behind Beer. The candidate and his team are marketing and promoting strongly. They are doing the work.

Fourthly, O’Dowd just hasn’t worked hard as an MP to build a buffer. He is low profile.

Lastly I think the swing is on in regional Queensland as I suggested in some previous posts. High unemployment and an angry blue collar workforce are prone to swing.

I expect all four of Dawson Herbert Capricornia and Flynn to change hands. The only thing that might save Herbert and Dawson is if Katter splits the vote a certain way. How these things split in three way contests is hard to call.

On top of this watch Leichardt and Hinkler. I am not as sure on these, but I would be surprised but not shocked if the LNP lose them.

My prediction: Likely LNP hold.

Shorten in Gladstone today. A visit during the last week shows you it is in play.

Labor won this by the barest of margins during Labor’s high point of 2007. I can’t see them getting this, not against the incumbent. Even a split in the conservative vote will still feed back to the LNP in preferences. Gladstone is Labor’s best area here by far but I think even they are a bit jaded with state Labor. Newman being in power still would have been a huge asset for Labor at this election. Prob.ably stemmed some of the bleeding 3 years ago TBH

Also, after the UK exit polling was way off and the recent local Brisbane City Council election results were an embarrassment to polling, I’m taking nothing as gospel. I honestly believe polling at the moment, and I can’t put my finger on why, is overestimating the left votes and missing a whole heap of middle silent majority.

Feel Bern .. The incumbent in this seat has done little except pander to vested interests and parrot rehearsed party mantras .. Like the bulk of the regional LNP members along the coast.

Preaching to the converted here mate but it can be hard to oust even bad incumbents when it’s a tight election.

FeeltheBern – the UK didn’t have exit polling, as far as I know. The polling prior to the vote kept saying “remain”… but that was a different situation. Pollsters were having to estimate values for groups that were hard to make contact with, resulting in numbers that weren’t as accurate as they should have been. That, plus all the pollsters were saying “Remain will win by a comfortable margin”, and many Britons went “then I’ll vote ‘Leave’ as a protest vote, safe in the knowledge it won’t matter”… thereby demonstrating their ignorance. Have you not seen the people admitting as much?

Can’t comment on the BCC election – being technically in Gold Coast (right near the border with Logan), I didn’t follow that election too carefully.

And I don’t think the most recent polls are overestimating the Left. I think some of the earlier ones were, but the last two or three I suspect have overcorrected. And the only polling that is impacted by the “silent majority” in the middle is online voting.

Much of the PUP vote, here, came from Labor, and would have had some preference leakage. I suspect that the margin would have been closer to 4% if not for PUP. And if that’s true, a 4% swing is plausible.

And I think you’ve forgotten that we tend to actually separate state and federal parties pretty clearly in Queensland, to the point that it’s not unusual for Queensland to vote for one party at the state level and the other at a Federal level, repeatedly (see 1998-2007). For example, LNP got 57% 2PP in 2004 at the federal level, while Labor got 47% on primary vote alone at the state level.

But on the other side of the coin in those Newspoll figures, the swing has gotten larger in Qld. It’s now around 6%.

Given that size, it is likely that Labor now have a much better shot in a lot of seats, particularly in regional areas.

If thoae numbers are broadly correct, the the Coalition will find it difficult to hold seats like this. Flynn is definitely now looking like a very likely Labor pickup.

Ugh please delete the above.

That should read I have been stating all along expect a big swing in regional queensland.

State breakdown of the last three news polls –

https://theaustralianatnewscorpau.files.wordpress.com/2016/06/web_news_fed_elect_newspoll.pdf

Note the biggest increase in the Labor primary is Queensland. Then if you shift to the far right you see the capitals Vs non capitals. This shows the bulk of the Queensland swing is in regional areas. This is why Flynn is in trouble for the LNP. Also watch Dawson, Herbert and Hinkler.

I noticed on yesterday’s news, ABC commentator Chris Uhlmann had a graphic with Flynn as a Labor gain (red) .. a lot of seats with less swing were still in blue

This seat is a wild one, because on the night the seat was called for Ken O’Dowd. But as counting came into later in the night the seat was called ‘too close to call’. I’m not sure why, but maybe it was because the Gladstone booths came later in the night. ABC website has got this seat now as a Labor gain, but Zac Beers refuses to declare victory with a lead of 2000 votes. The question whether he can get through the postal votes will be an interesting one.

So parliament loses one 26 year old man and gains another.

Again, it is remarkable that Labor appears to have won Flynn whilst possibly falling short in the normally much safer Capricornia.

The LNP improved by nearly 1.8% on declaration votes in 2013 (!), which is presumably why nobody is conceding or claiming victory just yet.

David maybe it is remarkable but I called this one while stating Capricornia would not swing as hard.

Nightwatchman .. I suspect beers got more pre-polls because of strong labor presence at booths .. keep in mind the pre-polls were only counted after 9 o’clock

Yes you were right, Queensland Observer. But the thing is, Capricornia didn’t need much of a swing to change hands.

In the last 50+ years, Capricornia had only ever been won by the conservatives at landslide elections: 2013, 1996, 1975. This was not one of those.

I cover Capricornia in that thread. There are solid reasons why it didn’t swing like Flynn, Herbert or Dawson even

Current status in Flynn…

Margin is 59 votes in LNP’s favour, with (on current count of declaration votes received) 3858 postal votes, 1252 absent votes, and 745 dec prepoll votes to be counted, plus likely about 150-200 provisional votes (once the rejected ones are culled out).

Note that these are certainly not final numbers (votes remaining), as this would equate to a turnout of 87.7%, whereas in 2013 it was 94.65%. Looks like there’s, in addition to those mentioned above, about 1325 absent votes, 2281 dec prepoll votes, and as many as 7609 postal votes potentially yet to come in. That said, if all of these were to come in, the turnout would be extraordinarily high – 98.8%. As the postal vote numbers are much higher, I’ll speculate that more of those will fail to come in (people who order postal votes, but end up voting in person, maybe? I’m not sure how the postal voting system works). To match the 2013 turnout, postal votes yet to come in would have to be around 3410.

This would suggest 7268 postal votes, 2577 absent votes, 3026 dec prepoll votes, and let’s say 150 provisional votes remaining to be counted. For Labor to win Flynn, they would need to get 50.48% of the remaining 2PP vote. With the largest chunk of votes being postal votes that have, so far, strongly favoured LNP, this is unlikely to happen… but if the remaining postal votes come out better for Labor than the ones so far (say, 55% to LNP rather than 63% to LNP), which isn’t completely implausible, or the absents and dec prepolls very strongly end up favouring Labor, or some combination of the two, Labor can do it.

But I certainly wouldn’t bet on it.