Fenner – Australia 2016

ALP 12.5%

Incumbent MP
Andrew Leigh, Member for Fraser since 2010.

Geography
Fraser covers the northern suburbs of Canberra. Fraser covers most suburbs north of Lake Burley Griffin and the Molonglo River, including the Belconnen and Gungahlin districts and most of the inner north of Canberra. Fraser also covers the Jervis Bay Territory.

Map of Fenner's 2013 and 2016 boundaries. 2013 boundaries marked as red lines, 2016 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Fenner’s 2013 and 2016 boundaries. 2013 boundaries marked as red lines, 2016 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
Fenner is the new name for the seat of Fraser. Prior to the redistribution, Fraser covered all suburbs on the north side of Lake Burley Griffin, but the suburbs of Civic, Campbell, Reid, Molonglo and Acton were transferred into Canberra. These changes cut the Labor margin from 12.6% to 12.5%.

History
The Australian Capital Territory first elected an MP from 1949 onwards, although this MP was only given full voting rights in 1968.

Fraser was created in 1974 when the ACT gained a second seat, and the existing electorate was divided into Fraser and Canberra. The ACT gained a third electorate, Namadgi, at the 1996 election

Fraser was held by John Langmore from 1984 to 1996. Langmore resigned in late 1996 and was replaced by Steve Dargavel at a 1997 by-election.

Dargavel’s parliamentary career was short-lived, with Namadgi being abolished at the 1998 election. Dargavel was defeated for preselection by Bob McMullan, then member for the neighbouring seat of Canberra.

Bob McMullan served four terms in Fraser in addition to his one term in Canberra, and retired in 2010.

The seat was won in 2010 by ANU economics professor Andrew Leigh, running for the Labor Party. Leigh was re-elected in 2013.

Candidates

Assessment
Fenner is a safe Labor seat.

2013 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Andrew Leigh Labor 56,063 44.7 -1.2 44.8
Elizabeth Lee Liberal 39,693 31.6 -0.8 31.7
Adam Verwey Greens 17,665 14.1 -5.8 13.8
Sam Huggins Bullet Train For Australia 5,099 4.1 +4.1 4.0
Freddy Alcazar Palmer United Party 3,063 2.4 +2.4 2.5
Darren Churchill Democrats 2,444 2.0 +2.0 2.0
Jill Ross Rise Up Australia 1,508 1.2 +1.2 1.2
Informal 4,859 3.9

2013 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Andrew Leigh Labor 78,614 62.6 -1.6 62.5
Elizabeth Lee Liberal 46,921 37.4 +1.6 37.5
Polling places in Fenner at the 2013 federal election. Belconnen in green, Gungahlin in orange, North Canberra in blue. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Fenner at the 2013 federal election. Belconnen in green, Gungahlin in orange, North Canberra in blue. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into the three districts in the northern half of Canberra. The largest proportion of voters live in the Belconnen, along with those in Gungahlin and North Canberra, also known as the ‘inner north’.

Labor’s two-party-preferred vote ranged from 56% in Gungahlin to 74% in North Canberra.

The Greens vote ranged from 10% in Gungahlin to 23% in North Canberra.

Voter group GRN % ALP 2PP % Total votes % of votes
Belconnen 13.2 64.7 36,144 31.4
Gungahlin 10.0 55.6 17,199 14.9
North Canberra 22.6 74.1 13,131 11.4
Other votes 13.1 60.1 48,703 42.3
Two-party-preferred votes in Fenner at the 2013 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Fenner at the 2013 federal election.
Greens primary votes in Fenner at the 2013 federal election.
Greens primary votes in Fenner at the 2013 federal election.

6 COMMENTS

  1. It will be interesting to see if the way Gungahlin voted in 2013 carries through to the new Yerrabi electorate for the ACT Election in October this year.

  2. It’s a pity you couldn’t fit the Wreck Bay booth on here.

    98.4% Labor 2PP, with a 90% primary vote. Only a single vote was cast for the Liberals.

  3. Interestingly the weakest Greens area is now the area benefiting from light rail. Greens were around the 20% mark in 2010 which is usually what greens usually consider “striking distance” (given the weak Liberal vote). Losing ANU and parts of the inner north hurts but I see a future Labor/Greens marginal, especially when Andrew Leigh retires.

  4. This will remain a safe ALP seat. Leigh will probably bleed some left wing ALP votes to the Greens on this occasion. The core Liberal vote will remain high enough to prevent a Green leapfrog to second place which is what they would need to have a chance at taking the seat.

    What is more interesting in the ACT is that if the Liberal Senate vote were to drop a couple of points they would be at risk of losing their Senate seat – again not likely but always worth the effort.

  6. It was a lot more possible under the previous Group Voting Ticket system, where the Greens could be assured of nearly perfect preference flows (at the last election, the only other tickets that favoured the Liberals over the Greens were Animal Justice Party, Stable Population Party and Rise Up Australia.

    Under the new system preference flows to the Greens will be a lot weaker – probably the exhausted votes alone will be enough to do them in.

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