Farrer – Australia 2016

LIB 21.8%

Incumbent MP
Sussan Ley, since 2001.

Geography
Farrer covers a great expanse of southwestern NSW. The seat covers most of the NSW-Victorian border, stretching from the Greater Hume area around Albury all the way along the Murray River, and further north to cover areas along the Murrumbidgee River. Main towns include Albury, Griffith, Leeton, Deniliquin and Corowa.

Map of Farrer's 2013 and 2016 boundaries. 2013 boundaries marked as red lines, 2016 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Farrer’s 2013 and 2016 boundaries. 2013 boundaries marked as red lines, 2016 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
Farrer lost Broken Hill and surrounding areas to Parkes, and gained Griffith, Leeton, Narrandera and surrounding areas from Riverina. These changes increased the Liberal margin from 17.4% to 21.8%.

History
Farrer was created at the 1949 election as part of the expansion of the House of Representatives. In its time it has always been held by conservative parties, primarily the Liberal Party, although it was held by the Nationals from 1984 until 2001.

The seat was first won in 1949 by Liberal candidate David Fairbairn. He was included in the Menzies ministry from 1962 until 1969, when he challenged John Gorton for the leadership and moved to the backbench. He returned to cabinet for one year in 1971 after William McMahon became Prime Minister, and retired from Parliament in 1975.

He was succeeded by Wal Fife, who had been a minister in the Liberal state government of New South Wales since 1967. Fife went on to serve as a minister in the Fraser government from 1977 until its defeat in 1983. He moved to the seat of Hume following the 1984 redistribution, which had moved Wagga Wagga from Farrer into Hume, and he retired in 1993.

The seat was won in a three-cornered contest in 1984 by Nationals state MP Tim Fischer, with the Liberal coming third. Fischer became leader of the National Party in 1990 after then-leader Charles Blunt lost his seat.

Fischer went on to serve as Deputy Prime Minister from 1996 to 1999, retiring at the 2001 election. Another three-cornered contest in 2001 saw the Liberal Party’s Sussan Ley win the seat back from the Nationals.

Sussan Ley has been re-elected four times.

Candidates

Assessment
Farrer is a very safe Liberal seat.

2013 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Sussan Ley Liberal 47,977 57.8 +6.4 60.5
Gavin Hickey Labor 19,708 23.8 -1.5 21.2
Christina Sobey Greens 3,643 4.4 -1.5 3.9
Ronald James Emmerton Palmer United Party 3,392 4.1 +4.1 4.3
Ken Trewin Katter’s Australian Party 3,091 3.7 +3.7 3.2
Narelle Davis Rise Up Australia 1,646 2.0 +2.0 1.7
Brendan Cattell Democratic Labour Party 1,509 1.8 +1.8 2.0
Tracey Powell Bullet Train For Australia 1,048 1.3 +1.3 1.7
Frank Horwill Christian Democratic Party 982 1.2 -2.0 1.2
Others 0.4
Informal 6,357 7.7

2013 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Sussan Ley Liberal 55,961 67.4 +2.9 71.8
Gavin Hickey Labor 27,035 32.6 -2.9 28.2
Polling places in Farrer at the 2013 federal election. Albury in yellow, Deniliquin in red, Griffith in light blue, North-East in blue, North-West in red, South-East in purple, South-West in green. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Farrer at the 2013 federal election. Albury in yellow, Deniliquin in red, Griffith in light blue, North-East in blue, North-West in red, South-East in purple, South-West in green. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into seven parts. Polling places in the towns of Albury, Griffith and Deniliquin have been grouped together, and the remainder of the seat’s population has been split into north-east, north-west, south-east and south-west.

The Liberal Party’s two-party-preferred vote ranged from 62.6% in Albury to 79.5% in the south-west.

Voter group LIB 2PP % Total votes % of votes
Albury 62.6 19,077 19.6
South-East 70.5 10,978 11.3
South-West 79.5 9,959 10.2
North-East 75.3 9,496 9.8
Griffith 73.8 8,990 9.2
North-West 74.7 4,931 5.1
Deniliquin 75.7 4,236 4.4
Other votes 69.0 29,601 30.4
Two-party-preferred votes in Farrer at the 2013 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Farrer at the 2013 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Albury at the 2013 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Albury at the 2013 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Griffith and Leeton at the 2013 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Griffith and Leeton at the 2013 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Deniliquin at the 2013 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Deniliquin at the 2013 federal election.

12 COMMENTS

  1. Wow – a 96% TPP result at one booth – you don’t see that often. That’s got to be one of the safest booths in the country.

  2. That’s The Retreat Public Hall, west of Finley (which got 83% Lib 2pp itself). I guess that’s one of those places where there isn’t even a proper town anymore, just a wheat bin, half a dozen fibro shacks and a local hall that reminds the few remaining locals of better days. When the polling place is a hall rather than a school, that’s a hint it’s a REALLY small place with pretty much nobody under the age of 40.

    76 voters in total: 63 for the Libs, 4 each for Katter and the CDP, 2 for Labor, 1 each for Rise Up, PUP and the Greens, and one informal. (Probably an old borderline-senile bloke who repeated the number 7 somewhere between the Bullet Train Party and the DLP. God bless compulsory preferences.) Someone from the AEC got paid to sit here all day, listening to crows caar and watching half a dozen people an hour turn up. I hope he got paid well.

    Fun fact: Spiderbait are from this part of the world.

  3. Bird of Paradox: As is former AFL player and Channel 9 Melbourne personality Shane Crawford.

  4. I remember former member of Farrer Tim Fischer, in the 96 election (I think) thanking all “103” residents of a place (probably Finley) for voting for him. He also mentioned he respected their right to a secret ballot……..

    Nats really stuffed up letting the libs get a look in.

  5. Finley itself is a town, but The Retreat isn’t actually even a gazetted locality. A few years back when I checked the AEC booth location data from the 2007 election to identify booths that weren’t correctly located (and there were lots of them, still are some in 2013 but it’s much improved) this I think was the one I had most trouble with. You won’t find the building using Google Maps.

  6. Yeah, I tried that too. About the best I got from googling was an old school newsletter from Finley Primary School, apparently small and rural enough that kids with birthdays get their names read out on the local radio station.

    Ben: I’m guessing the Lib numbers around Griffith refer to the Nats, since that area was in Riverina last time? (And same in reverse in western Parkes.)

  7. 2016 would have to have seen the greatest casualty in candidates of any election.

    I guess it’s a sign of the times, where everything you’ve ever said or done can be dredged up with the click of a mouse.

  8. What’s the highest 2PP in history? Ley already got the 3rd highest 2PP in 2016 and she has probably been the most competent and reasonable LNP frontbencher (although that isn’t saying much). No idea how she is as a local member though.

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